Zsolt Pinke

The transformation of climatic regime has an undeniable impact on plant production, but we rarely have long enough date series to examine the unfolding of such effects. The clarification of the relationship between crop plants and climate has a near-immediate importance due to the impending human-made global change. This study investigated the relationship between temperature, precipitation, drought intensity, and the yields of four major cereals in Hungary between 1921-2010. The analysis of 30-year segments indicated a monotonously increasing negative impact of temperature on crop yields. A 1 °C temperature increase reduced the yield of the four main cereals by 9.6-14.8% in 1981-2010, which revealed the vulnerability of Eastern European crop farming to recent climate change. Climate accounted for 17%-39% of yield variability over the past 90 years, but this figure reached 33%-67% between 1981-2010. Our analysis supports the claim that the mid-20th century green revolution improved yields "at the mercy of the weather": during this period, the impact of increasing fertilization and mechanisation coincided with climatic conditions that were more favourable than today. Crop yields in Eastern Europe have been stagnating or decreasing since the mid-1980s. Although usually attributed to the large socio-economic changes sweeping the region, our analysis indicates that a warming climate is at least partially responsible for this trend. Such a robust impact of increasing temperatures on crop yields also constitutes an obvious warning for this core grain-growing region of the world. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Book Review on The Oxford Handbook of Environmental History. Isenberg, A. C., editor. 2014. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K. 783 pp. $160.00 (hardcover). ISBN 978-019-5324907.

The number one objective of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is to restore the good status of water bodies. For Hungary, where more than 10% of the area is arable land highly exposed to excess surface water and 40-45% of croplands lie in the most drought affected zone, the implementation of the WFD is of particular significance. According to the findings of the descriptive statistical examination of the paper drought and excess surface water events lead to a crop loss exceeding 0.5% of the Hungarian GDP every three years. In the five counties exposed to drought and excess surface water the most the yield loss for most crops studied was higher than the national average over the last 100 years. In an other analysis the costs calculated in cubic metres of a huge flood protection investment in the Tisza Valley and two wetland rehabilitation programs were examined. By comparing the costs and benefits, the aspects of cutting flood protection costs, reducing exposure to environmental damage, the implementation of the WFD and other environmental objectives may be brought to a common denominator with the interests of land users.

Temperature and precipitation are the most important meteorological variables influencing crop yields of cereals. In the paper we use and compare two procedures, namely Factor analysis with special transformation and multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise method in determining the influence of monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation amounts of April, May, June, July and August for determining the crop yields of maize, wheat, barley and rye. When comparing the results received on the two methods, those variables were retained that were concurrently significant for determining the crop yields for both cases. It is found that for maize yield the most important variables in decreasing order are August mean temperature with negative, as well as July and June precipitation amounts with positive association. For wheat yield, June and May mean temperatures, while for barley yield the same but in reverse order are the most important variables, all with negative relationship. Concerning rye yield, April precipitation amount with positive and June mean temperature with negative association are the decisive variables. Among the examined cereals, maize yield is the most sensitive to precipitation. The here-mentioned significant relationships may have a predictive power in projecting the actual crop yield.

Groundwater (GW) in many regions is essential for agricultural productivity, especially during drought periods. The shrinking of GW is an important but rarely documented component of the recent global environmental crisis and may threaten food security. The problem cannot be put in proper perspective, because we rarely have datasets long and detailed enough to scrutinise the unfolding effects at regional scales. To address this knowledge gap, we used a 50-y long (1961–2010) and spatially extensive (283 GW wells) dataset from Hungary to examine the GW trends and the sensitivity of the yields of two important crops to GW fluctuations. During 1986–2010, GW levels were significantly (0.21–0.60 m) lower than during 1961–1985 in every region of Hungary and every month of the year. The decrease was 2.24 cm y-1 at the country level. Linear and bootstrap resampling tests indicated weak relationship between GW levels and wheat yields but decreasing GW levels accounted for 18–38% of maize yield variability during the ‘climate change affected’ period of 1986–2010. Calculating the impact of GW on potential food production, a 100 mm higher GW levels would have increased annual maize yields by 0.23 t ha-1 on the Hungarian Plain. However, the registered GW decrease caused an estimated maize yield loss of 0.65 t ha-1, i.e. 11.6 % of the average annual yield during 1986–2010. GW levels fluctuations on the plain showed a significant correlation with August-October soil moisture gridded data over much of the agricultural landscapes of Central and Western Europe, indicating a similar situation in a wider European context. To mitigate the cumulative negative impact of GW decrease and the rising temperature, GW recharge via infiltration of retained water would be an adequate solution. Areas of former floodplains with low agroecological suitability, amounting to almost a quarter of the Hungarian Plain could serve as such water retention areas.

Reviewing the results of environmental epidemiology, post-volcanic climatology, and environmental history, we focused exclusively on volcanic eruption-ENSO and ENSO-cholera connections in order to establish a hypothesis that large tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions trigger an environmentally driven cascade process via post-volcanic ENSO anomalies. This cascade process has tended historically to lead to cholera outbreaks in Bengal. To test our hypothesis, we set up a dataset from strong tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic events that forced the ENSO system, ENSO indices, and historical data for cholera outbreaks. Eight volcanic eruptions (≥ 3.3 W/m2) were accompanied within 2 years by El Niño events over the past 500 years. In case of the 19th–20th century period, all selected volcanic eruptions were accompanied by major cholera outbreaks in Bengal during the examined post-volcanic years. For the past 500 years, the likelihood for the occurrence of major post-volcanic cholera outbreaks was 75%.

The Mongol invasion in 1241–42 was a major disruption in the Kingdom of Hungary’s history that brought serious changes to many facets of its political, demographic, and military development. It became a long-lasting element of collective memory that influenced modern historical discourse. Nonetheless, questions remain about the level and distribution of destruction and population loss, the role that environmental factors played in the invasion, the reasons for the Mongol withdrawal, and how this episode can be used for interpreting later thirteenth and fourteenth-century phenomena. The present article aims to discuss these four issues, employing a combined analysis of the wide-ranging textual material and the newer archaeological and settlement data in their regional context. We contend that new data supports the idea that destruction was unevenly distributed and concentrated in the Great Hungarian Plain. Furthermore, we express skepticism that environmental and climatic factors played the decisive role in the Mongol withdrawal in 1242, while we acknowledge the evidence that long-term climate change had substantial effects on Hungary’s settlement patterns and economy as early as the mid-thirteenth century. We conclude that a nuanced multi-causal explanation for the Mongol withdrawal is necessary, taking greater consideration of local resistance and the military failures of the Mongol army than has previously been represented in international literature. Lastly, we uphold a viewpoint that the Mongol invasion brought many catalysts to Hungary’s rapid development in the late thirteenth and early fourteenth centuries.

The establishment of a sustainable land use system is crucial in Hungary (SE Europe) where 30% of croplands lie on former floodplains, and 40–45% of arable lands are drought-prone. We calculated and compared the monetary value of the main wetland ecosystem services, the profitability of land use and the additional costs of grain producer system on land at risk from groundwater inundation on the Hungarian Plain. We show that orchards and forestry generate a much higher profitability in former wetlands than cropland farming. Using the replacement cost method, we prove that the reservoir capacity of restored wetlands with an ecologically optimal 0.5 m water depth could replace 2150 €ha-1 flood protection investment cost. The calculated costs of protecting land under the two highest groundwater risk categories between 1999–2005 was 260.2 €ha-1y-1 and 104.1 €ha-1y-1, respectively. Although the flood protection benefits of former wetlands may provide an appropriate value base for restoration per se, combined with the potential advantages of land use change from cropland to forest in former wetlands and the carbon sequestration benefit provide ‘win-win’ solutions for land users and institutional actors interested in flood prevention, environmental protection and climate mitigation.

In their recent article published in the journal Scientific Reports, Büntgen and Di Cosmo have attempted to solve the historical mystery of the sudden Mongol withdrawal from Hungary after a year-long occupation. We cannot share the authors’ viewpoint that environmental circumstances contributed to the decision of the Mongols to abandon Hungary since the hypothesis lacks support from environmental, archaeological and historical evidence. Historical source material in particular suggests that the Mongols were able to settle and sustain their herds in Hungary as is clearly stated in a letter by King Bela IV to the pope. The Mongol army arrived in the kingdom at the end of a severe drought, and we present empirical evidence that the abundant rain in the spring of 1242 CE did not worsen but rather improved their prospects for sufficient food supplies and pasturage. The marshy terrain of the Hungarian Plain likely did not precipitate the Mongol withdrawal as the Mongol high command ultimately stationed their main forces around the marshy Volga Delta. In contrast to what Büntgen and Di Cosmo have suggested, we argue that the reasons for the sudden withdrawal cannot be explained largely by environmental factors.

The studied 4.128 km² Central European lowland region includes the Hortobágy landscape, a UNESCO World Heritage site and one of the most extensive protected natural grasslands of Europe. In the evolution of this semi-natural landscape human-nature interactions were characterised by gradual but extremely serious settlement abandonment during the 13th–17th centuries. The identification of the agents shaping this process has been widely discussed in the Hungarian landscape historiography. The statistical analysis of medieval archaeological sites indicating settlements showed that elevation means in the early period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (mid-13th – mid-16th centuries) were significantly higher than in the Medieval Warm Epoch (MWE) (mid-10th – mid-13th centuries) (p≤0.01; n=549; α=0.05). This result supported our hypothesis that waterside settlements of the plain displaced vertically from the MWE to the LIA. Secondly, a GIS based zonal analysis suggested a strong spatial connection between the geomorphological zones (riparian, deep floodplain and sand plateau), the agro-ecological suitability zones (good-excellent, medium and low) and the population zones (with stable settlement pattern, deserted and uninhabited). E.g. the elevation means of archaeological sites in deserted zones proved significantly lower than those with stable settlement pattern (p≤0.01; n=381; α=0.05). Similarly, a statistical investigation of grain remains (narchaeological site=79; ntaxon=751; nfindings=4.8 millions) of the Great Hungarian Plain (GHP) indicated that the early phase of the LIA saw the spreading of moorland plants and rye, the cereal most resistant to humidity and cool. When the relation of settlement patterns to soil conditions was analysed by ANOVA linear model, a significant spatial correlation appeared between the extension of the high and medium agro-ecological suitability zones and the number of settlements in each population zone of the five microregions (R2=0.46; p≤0.01; df=18). In conclusion, our results refer to rising water levels in the early phase of the LIA, which may have been a causal factor behind the serious late medieval settlement abandonment in the GHP. They also suggest that soil conditions determined the spatial pattern of settlements. From an environmental aspect, flood free surfaces and suitability for farming were decisive in the premodern population density of this wetland landscape. Historical data likewise show that the population of deserted villages migrated towards floodless areas with excellent soil conditions where a rapidly growing town network emerged in the early phase of the LIA. The croplands of abandoned villages were converted into pastures for extensive cattle husbandry managed by towns – a typical way of farming in the Hungarian lowlands.

The paper focuses on changes in settlement patterns on the frontier zones of wetlands and areas suitable for settling in the Great Hungarian Plain, Central Europe. Based on the statistical analysis of archaeological site elevations in a 4.128 km² lowland landscape, it is demonstrated that archaeological sites of the Árpád Period (AD 970–1300) were situated significantly (p = 0.01; n = 427) lower than those of the late medieval period (AD 1300–1540). Statistical results suggest that rising water levels are likely to have influenced the migration and transformation in settlement patterns from the Medieval Warm Epoch (mid-10th – mid-13th century) to the first part of the Little Ice Age (mid-13th century – mid-16th century). Zonal analysis also revealed close connections between flood-prone geomorphological features and spatiotemporal variations of settlement patterns during the medieval climate change. With regard to the lowland character of the extensive study area, its relatively high flood vulnerability and the numerous analogies from Europe and the Carpathian Basin, only one out of the multitude of factors influencing site selection, water level changes can be interpreted as a rational explanation for the vertical displacement of the settlement pattern.

Cultivation has a history of eight thousand years, olericulture five thousand years, while pomiculture two thousand years in Hungary (Central Europe). The majority of cereals arrived in the country with the Neolithic harvesting population. Most leguminous plants were brought in by the peoples of the tell cultures in the middle Bronze Age, while fruit species and grapes appeared at the time of the Roman conquest. An oriental plant know-how came with the conquering Hungarians and occidental plant species and their cultivation know-how were added to that basis after the assumption of Christianity (some AD 1000). Archaeobotany (also known as palaeo-ethnobotany) is the science of the identification of plant remains and plant products. Its main scope covers the history of plant cultivation and vegetation. It studies the relationship between society and the flora. In addition to the identification of the remains of cultivated plants it monitors the transformation of wild species into cultivated plants and the spread of plant cultivation and agriculture in general. Furthermore, as the study of plant macrofossils (seeds and fruits) obtained from excavations archaeobotany becomes particularly important when there is very little or no archaeological, written or iconographical material available about the cultivation. This is particularly the case in relation to prehistoric cultures. Remains of cultivated plants and natural vegetation allow us to infer environmental conditions and agro-biodiversity as well as botanical knowledge, methods of farming or dietary habits.

A HAJDÚSÁGI VÁROSTÉRSÉG AGROÖKOLÓGIAI ADOTTSÁGAI Bevezetés Györffy István a városok vagy városias települések egy speciális köre, a szállás-kertes települések kialakulását és működését a települést " üzemeltető " közös-ség anyagi kultúrája és életmódja felől közelítette meg, ami iskolateremtőnek bizonyult az alföldi mezőváros kutatásában. 1 Mendöl Tibor a tájtudományok és a posszibilista földrajzi szemlélet összefűzésével, az emberföldrajzi paradigma magyarországi meghonosítójaként hangsúlyozta a táji karakter városfejlődés-ben meghatározó jelentőségét. 2 A táji munkamegosztásról és specializációról szóló gondolataival a történeti regionalizmus hazai megalapozásához is hoz-zájárult. Munkáiban kiemelt figyelmet szentelt a nyugat-európai, elsősorban a német funkcionalista városkutatás eredményeinek, ami a területileg differen-ciált városfejlődési keretek, különösen a települések központi funkcióinak és hierarchikus rendszereinek kutatásában érdekelt történészek és regionalisták generációit inspirálta. 3 A hajdúsági településállomány változásait nyomon követve Zoltai Lajos, a debreceni iskola alapítója a hajdúsági várostérség kiemelkedésének okai kö-zött elsősorban a debreceni uradalom földesurainak birtokpolitikáját nevezte meg. Külön figyelmet érdemel a Szabó István és Zoltai Lajos tanítványi körébe tartozó Balogh István településtörténeti modellje. 4 Balogh István a történeti néprajz, a régészet és a tájtudományok megközelítéseit, módszertani eljárásait integrálva értelmezte a hortobágyi és hajdúsági településállomány változásait az Árpád-kor és az újkor közötti időszakban. A településrendszer középkori átalakulását a termelési viszonyokban a 13. század során történt struktúravál-tás, az állattenyésztésről a szántóföldi művelésre való áttérés folyamatában értelmezte. Ezzel magyarázta azt is, hogy a Hortobágy feltehetően a 13. század-ban kezdődő elnéptelenedésével párhuzamosan figyelhető meg a szomszédos 1 Győrffy 1926.

Az Európai Víz Keretirányelv (VKI) első számú célja vizeink jó állapotának megőrzése és helyreállítása. Megvalósításával kontinentális léptékű tájrehabilitációs program vette kezdetét. Magyarország számára, mely területének >10%-án belvízérzékeny szántóföldek fekszenek és a szántóföldi művelésben álló terület 40-45%-a súlyosan aszályos zónában található, az agrárium, a környezetvédelem és további ágazatok szempontjából egyaránt történelmi jelentőségű a VKI célok megvalósítása. Az alábbiakban közölt vizsgálati eredmények arra hívják fel a figyelmet, hogy az aszálynak és belvíznek egyaránt kitett szántók többségén a gazdálkodás hosszú idősoron komoly veszteségekkel jár. A legaszályosabb egyúttal belvízzel leginkább fenyegetett alföldi régióban a vizsgált periódusokban az országos átlag fölötti terméskiesés mutatkozott a vizsgált növények többségében. Részben ezzel indokolható, hogy a belvíznek és aszálynak egyaránt leginkább kitett alföldi megyék többsége nem éri el az országos termésátlagot és egyáltalán nem tartoznak a hagyományosan termékenynek mondott alföldi zónába. Ezzel szemben a belvizes zóna táji adottságai miatt olyan potenciális természeti szolgáltatásokkal rendelkezik, melyek hasznából a földhasználók és a közösség egyaránt részesedni jogosultak. Ilyen szolgáltatás a belvizes területek víztározó kapacitása. Ennek az ökoszisztéma szolgáltatásnak az értékelése során a Tiszavölgyben zajló árvízvédelmi nagyberuházás egységnyi tározótéri kapacitásra vetített beruházási költségei a beruházás környezetében elterülő vízvisszatartásra alkalmas területek tározótéri kapacitásával és forgalmi értékével továbbá e körzetben megvalósult reprezentatív mintaként vizsgált vizes élőhelyi restaurációs projektek egységnyi területre vetített beruházási költségével lettek összehasonlítva. Az eredmény arra a lehetőségre hívja fel a figyelmet, hogy a magyarországi belvizes területek nagy értékű árvízvédelmi szolgáltatás potenciálja erős érdekeltségi viszony kialakítására kínál lehetőséget a földjeiken időszakos víztározást biztosító, így a közösség számára szolgáltatást nyújtó földhasználó és az árvíz elleni védekezésben továbbá a környezetvédelemben érdekelt közösségi aktorok között. Az árvízvédelem, az aszály és belvízkárok költségeinek csökkentése, a VKI és további környezetvédelmi célok megvalósítása az érintett földhasználók érdekeivel közös nevezőre hozhatók. A korábbi árterek árvízvédelmi funkciójának becsült értéke arra is lehetőséget nyújthat, hogy az árvíz elleni védekezés és környezetvédelem közösségi feladatai állami területeken valósuljanak meg, így a helyi konfliktusok mértéke lényegesen csökkenjen. Kulcsszavak: árvízvédekezés, Európai Víz Keretirányelv, földhasználat váltás, kárértékelés, VGT, VKI

A természetes árterek, vizes élőhelyek helyreállításaa vegetáció vízkörforgásban betöltött szerepe miatta "természetközeli" növénytakaró rehabilitációjától elválaszthatatlan feladat. Az Alföld bizonyos térszínei a neolitikum óta művelés alatt állnak, ezért a mozaikos szerkezetű antropogén táj jelentős emberi beavatkozás előtti állapotának feltérképezése és a táj antropogén átalakulásának nyomon követése komoly kihívást jelent. Hipotézisünk szerint történeti és helynévtörténeti kutatások során a természet- és tervezési tudományokban (pl. területfejlesztés és tervezés, tájrehabilitáció) hasznosítható adatokhoz és következtetésekhez juthatunk. A környezet történetére vonatkozó természettudományi és régészeti vizsgálatok eredményeit jól kiegészítik az utóbbi ezer év során írott forrásainkban vagy térképeinken fennmaradt, az alföldi ökológiai rendszerre vonatkozó adatok. Jelentéstani, nyelvföldrajzi és nyelvtörténeti módszerei a helynévtudományt az etnobotanika, a történeti földrajz és a történeti ökológia társtudományává avatják. A tematikus válogatással szűrt helynévanyag interdiszciplináris kutatása a természettudományok számára is kézzelfogható eredményeket nyújthat. Az a körülmény, hogy az Alföld klimatikus, földrajzi adottságai miatt a zárt erdőzóna határán a sztyepperdő zónájában helyezkedik el, és az ENSZ ariditásnak rendkívül kitett európai nagytájként tartja nyilván, továbbá Európa legnagyobb, növekvő kiterjedésű terresztikus szikesei itt találhatóak, nemzetközi jelentőséget ad az aszály, a szikesedés és a dezertifikáció elleni küzdelemben az Alföld egykori arculatát meghatározó azonális ártéri erdőségek vizsgálatának és helyreállításának. Az 1000–1350 közötti időszakban olyan erdőkről értesülhetünk, melyek később többnyire megsemmisültek. Az eltűnt ártéri vízhatást is tükrözték, mely kiterjedése és mennyisége következtében a táj anyagforgalmában meghatározó szerepet játszott. A két évszázados háborús időszak (1526–1711) és az Alföld újratelepítése során vizsgált területünk erdősültsége történelmi mélypontra süllyedt. Ez a rendkívül alacsony erdőfedettség a mainál mégis lényegesen természetesebb mintázatot és fajösszetételt takar. Talán a mindkét történeti rétegből származó „puha” adatok kiegészíthetik a recens talaj, éghajlati és vízrajzi adatbázisainkból modellezett potenciális növényzettérképeket, és kontrollként szolgálhatnak az ártérrehabilitáció során megváltozó anyag- és energiaáramok következtében módosuló potenciális növényzet mintázatára vonatkozó becslések és modellek számára.

The biggest unbroken floodzone network of the Carpathian Basin before 19th century river controls lay in Hortobágy-Sárrét (9331 km²). Due to persistant human destruction its indigenous vegetation has disappeared almost totally by now and 63% of the area characterized as agricultural landscape is involved into cropland farming. The constant lability of the relationship between people and nature is signaled by the dramatic deterioration of social and natural conditions. The present form of landscape management, i.e. nearly exclusive monocultural cropland farming, is unsustainable from the aspects of society, economy and ecology. It can be seen that the water management system of the Tisza Valley is incapable of managing floods, drainage water, salination processes and intensifying aridation. Transformation of the agricultural and hydrological system is inevitable. Rehabilitated areas provide such public ecosystem services as flood prevention, soil conservation and increasing biodiversity etc. which are difficult to sell directly in the market, so it necessitates state interference. Conflicts emerging while implementing VTT show that dominant state participation is indispensable to set a successful rehabilitation process as a positive model. Managing rehabilitation in an efficient and transforming land use in a well-coordinated way can best be put into practice under the control of national parks and other possible actors. Implementing the task will coincide with a major extention of the affected national parks. Besides the positive effects that floodplain rehabilitation have on the ecosystem, it also needs to serve the economic development of local communities in the long run. We would like to illuminate three forms of land use and economic activities which are profitable for the local communities and can be synchronized with the operation of local national parks. 1, Recreation and tourism aimed at environmental protection and culture. 2, Fishing. 3, Forestry. We selected the target area of floodplains for rehabilitation taking agrotopograpyical maps, model of suitablity for cropland farming of VÁTI and SRTM, a 90x90 m scale relief model indicating the basic landscape features but unsuitable for detailed analysis, into account. Keywords: floodplain rehabilitation, landscape degradation, land utilization, national park,

Preface The idea of examining the relibility of Lászlóffy's so called 'wetland map' has been induced by the criticism of resources and databases used while conducting research into environmental history. We got a further impetus from historian György Györffy who neccessitated "rewriting the ancient hydrography of the Carpathian Basin". Perceiving the vagueness of the initial attempts to describe the ancient hydrological conditions of the Carpathian Basin, in a lecture he held on 'The matter of making a historical map' in the Institute of History of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in 1982 he said: '… the only serious attempt on this matter is a map titled »Water Covered Areas (…) Before the Commencement of Flood Protection and Draining (Bp., 1938) « is unfortunately rather unreliable. The editor based his marking of wetlands on the map of fl ood protection associations, although they did not always indicate the actual conditions of the past, but rather areas inundated by rivers forced to fl ow with higher water level fl uctuations between dikes and areas taxed according to maximum water-levels. Hence the dry ridge of Nagykunság has been projected as wetland.' Let us see whether the geographical area 'the dry ridge of Nagykunság' he mentioned was indeed marked as wetland on Lászlóffy's map and whether the ridge of Nagykunság was really dry before the river controls of the 19th century. The sources of Laszlóffy's map Experts commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture compiled their map "Water covered areas and wetlands in the Carpathian Basin before the commencement of fl ood protection and draining" under the supervision of Woldemár Lászlóffy in 1938. This map is used for educational purposes as a basic resource and map of environmental and hydrological history. Our long lasting, but mistaken belief that 'two thirds of the Great Hungarian Plain was water covered before the river controls' was, in fact, based on this map. The data of the fl ood zones of the Tiszántúl on Lászlóffy's map was adapted from