Zacharias Bragoudakis

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• Ph.D in Economics, Deputy Director at Bank of Greece
• Post Doc at National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

In this study we propose a new determinant of non-performing loans for the case of the Greek banking sector. We employ aggregate yearly data for the period 1996-2016 and we conduct a Principal Component Analysis for all the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for Greece, aiming to isolate the common component and thus to create the GOVERNANCE ind...

The aim of this study is to provide a novel method to assess whether retail fuel prices respond asymmetrically to changes in the international crude oil prices. To do so, we consider the whole supply chain, we use daily data and we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on prices. Rather, we consider the mark-ups of both th...

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the noti...

The pricing mechanism in the gasoline market has often been the subject of public debate in Greece during the crisis years. Inefficient pricing could imply oligopolistic practices and losses to consumers’ welfare. A way to test for inefficient pricing, is by testing for asymmetries in the adjustment of domestic gasoline prices to world oil price ch...

Using a multisectoral model and the latest data from the OECD Input-Output Tables (IOTs-2021 ed.), this article estimates labour and capital productivities of the 38 OECD member countries. As measures of the productivity of labour, we consider the inverse of the vertically integrated labour coefficients, while Perron–Frobenius theorems are employed...

This paper investigates the impact of education on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis using a balanced panel dataset of 167 countries over 21 years. By employing three econometric models with CO₂ emissions, NOx emissions, and total greenhouse gas emissions as dependent variables, we analyze the role of primary and secondary education...

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the degree of inflation persistence in Greece and the euro area. To estimate inflation persistence, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and its five main components are used. The data are derived from official sources such as Eurostat and SDW, covering the period from 1996 to 2024. Conce...

The presentation highlights the main points of "The mission of the Advisory Committee of the Hellenic Statistical System (SY.EP.EL.S.S.)". In particular, the areas in which it may be necessary to have new statistics developed by the ELSS (Hellenic Statistical System). The Potential changes in the priorities of production of existing statistics by...

Βασικός σκοπός του άρθρου είναι η διερεύνηση του βαθμού επιμονής του πληθωρισμού στην Ελλάδα και στην ευρωζώνη. Για την εκτίμηση της επιμονής του πληθωρισμού χρησιμοποιείται ο Εναρμονισμένος Δείκτης Τιμών Καταναλωτή (ΕνΔΤΚ) και οι πέντε βασικές συνιστώσες του. Τα στοιχεία αντλούνται από επίσημες πηγές, όπως η Eurostat και η SDW, και καλύπτουν την π...

Abstract Housing prices in Greece have increased rapidly in the last few years. This leads to a debate about whether Greek housing prices have departed from macroeconomic fundamentals. However, little empirical studies have been devoted to this area. Therefore, the study aims to fill this gap by examining the long-run association between housing pr...

Food inflation has become a significant economic concern across the eurozone, including Greece. In 2023, food inflation in Greece and most euro area countries exceeded headline inflation by more than double. While headline inflation has shown signs of easing, food inflation remains more entrenched, declining at a much slower rate. This persistence...

Certificate of Reviewing Award for 2 reviews between June 2024 and August 2024 presented to Zacharias Bragoudakis in recognition of the review contributed to the journal.

The monitoring and analysis of the business cycle is a central element of inputs to monetary policy decision-making. This report contributes to the analysis of business cycles in the euro area in three dimensions. First, in terms of business cycle dating, it proposes automated procedures to characterise the business cycle situation of the euro area...

Certificate of Reviewing awarded July 29, 2024 to Zacharias Bragoudakis In recognition of the review made for the journal The Editors of REGIONAL STATISTICS Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Budapest, Hungary REGIONAL STATISTICS

Review recognition certificate on Elsevier Reviewer Hub for reviewing Research in Transportation Business & Management

2023, δηλαδή πριν τις κατεδαφιστικές για την ισορροπία του προοδευτικού χώρου εκλογές του Μαΐου-σε αναζήτηση «Άλλου Δρόμου». Άλλου δρόμου για τι και γιατί; Άλλου δρόμου μετά την υποχρεωτική προσαρμογή, με βαριές πινελιές ΤΙΝΑ (There is no alternative), στις συνθήκες λειτουργίας της Ελλάδας εντός Ευρωζώνης/μετά τα Μνημόνια, προσαρμογή η οποία όμως θ...

H παρούσα εργασία εστιάζει στις βασικές μακροοικονομικές ανισορροπίες της ελληνικής οικονομίας: το έλλειμα τρεχουσών συναλλαγών και το επενδυτικό κενό. Η ανταγωνιστικότητα της ελληνικής οικονομίας βελτιώθηκε σημαντικά μετά την κρίση, κυρίως λόγω της μείωσης του εργατικού κόστους, οδηγώντας σε σημαντική αύξηση των εξαγωγών. Ωστόσο, η εξάρτηση της πα...

This paper focuses on one of the main macroeconomic imbalances of the Greek economy: the current account deficit. The competitiveness of the Greek tradable sector improved significantly after the crisis, mainly due to the reduction of labour costs, leading to a significant increase in exports. However, the import dependence of the economy means sig...

The paper investigates the potential effects of a sovereign credit rating upgrade to investment grade on the trajectory of the Greek economy. A cross-country empirical analysis of past upgrades suggests that an economy’s upgrade to investment grade is associated with a reduction in sovereign bond yields and spreads by about 70 basis points. In the...

This paper focuses on one of the main macroeconomic imbalances of the Greek economy: the current account deficit. The competitiveness of the Greek tradable sector improved significantly after the crisis, mainly due to the reduction of labour costs, leading to a significant increase in exports. However, the import dependence of the economy means sig...

In recognition of the appointment as a Reviewer of International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment(IJEEE)

Review Confirmation Certificate in the Journal of Infrastructure, Policy, and Development (JIPD)

One of the most often used data science techniques in business, finance, supply chain management, production, and inventory planning is time-series forecasting. Due to the dearth of studies in the literature that propose unique weights and structure (WASD) based models for regression issues, the goal of this research is to examine the creation of s...

Building on a proper selection of macroeconomic variables for constructing a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasting multivariate model (Kazanas, 2017), this paper evaluates whether alternative Bayesian model specifications can provide greater forecasting accuracy compared to a standard Vector Error Correction model (VECM). To that end, two Bayesi...

Building on a proper selection of macroeconomic variables for constructing a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasting multivariate model (Kazanas, 2017), this paper evaluates whether alternative Bayesian model specifications can provide greater forecasting accuracy compared to a standard Vector Error Correction model (VECM). To that end, two Bayesi...

Building on a proper selection of macroeconomic variables for constructing a GDP forecasting multivariate model (Kazanas, 2017), this paper evaluates whether alternative Bayesian model specifications can provide greater forecasting accuracy compared to a standard VECM model. To that end, two Bayesian models are estimated, a Bayesian VAR using Litte...

This study evaluates oil price forecasts based on their economic significance for macroeconomic predictions. More specifically, we first use the current state-of-the-art frameworks to forecast monthly oil prices and subsequently we use these forecasts, as oil price assumptions, to predict eurozone and Greek inflation rates and industrial production...

An essential dilemma in economics that has yielded ambiguous answers is whether governments should spend more in recessions. This paper provides an extension of the work of Ramey & Zubairy (2018) for the US economy according to which the government spending multipliers are below unity, especially when the economy experiences severe slack. Nonethele...

The receipts from shipping services have been a vital resource for the Greek economy covering a perennial trade deficit. The downward adjustment in freight rates, following the Lehman Brothers collapse was swift, impacting severely on Greek shipping inflows. Almost two years later, Greece, facing a debt crisis, had to agree to an economic adjustmen...

An essential dilemma in economics that has yielded ambiguous answers is whether governments should spend more in recessions. This paper provides an extension of the work of Ramey & Zubairy (2018) for the US economy according to which the government spending multipliers are below unity, especially when the economy experiences severe slack. Nonethele...

The book introduces the reader to the essential concepts of money and credit. Using economic analysis tools, presents the role, the characteristics, and the importance of money. It deals with the definition of money and its price –purchasing power, as well as the demand for and the supply of money, their determinants, and how they are combined for...

This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, an...

Zacharias BRAGOUDAKIS from Bank of Greece participated at the 25th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, 29 July – 31 July 2021, Rethymno, Greece with the paper entitled: “Investigating Government Spending Multiplier for the US Economy: Empirical Evidence Using a Triple LASSO Approach”

Certificate of Reviewing in the Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization

An essential dilemma in economics that has yielded ambiguous answers is whether governments should spend more in recessions. This paper provides an extension of the work of Ramey & Zubairy (2018) for the US economy according to which the government spending multipliers are below unity, especially when the economy experiences severe slack. Nonethele...

This paper models and estimates the volatility of stock indices and foreign exchange rates in BRICS, using univariate GARCH models. The data cover the period 13/05/1999-22/11/2018. The conditional variance is modeled with a GARCH (1,1), IGARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The results suggest that the GJR-GARCH model out-performs the other GARCH family mo...

This paper models and estimates the volatility of stock indices and foreign exchange rates in BRICS, using univariate GARCH models. The data cover the period 13/05/1999-22/11/2018. The conditional variance is modeled with a GARCH (1,1), IGARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The results suggest that the GJR-GARCH model out-performs the other GARCH family mo...

Certificate Reviewing in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance

An essential dilemma in economics that has yielded ambiguous answers is whether governments should spend more in recessions. This paper provides an extension of the work of Ramey & Zubairy (2018) for the US economy according to which the government spending multipliers are below unity, especially when the economy experiences severe slack. Nonethele...

This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, an...

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of asymmetric reaction on GDP growth rate changes due to changes in PMI index (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for the case of the Greek Economy. There is plenty of international literature which supports that the PMI index is a very useful source of information for nowcasting and short-ter...

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the noti...

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the noti...

The pricing mechanism in the gasoline market has often been the subject of public debate in Greece during the crisis years. Inefficient pricing could imply oligopolistic practices in the market and losses to consumers’ welfare in a period characterised by a dramatic fall in consumers’ income and standard of living. A way to test whether pricing is...

Greece’s fuel market has undergone wide-ranging reforms in order to become more efficient and competitive, facilitating the reduction of oligopolies power. The reforms have aimed at enabling greater competition, eliminating distortions in an effort to ensure price transparency and eliminating losses to consumers’ welfare.

The Editors of Economic Modelling awarded ZACHARIAS BRAGOUDAKIS in recognition of the review contributed to the journal

The aim of this study is to assess whether fuel prices in Greece respond asymmetrically to changes in the global oil prices. To do so, we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on fuel prices. Rather, we consider the markup of both the refineries and retailers. Even more, unlike the bulk of the existing literature, we take...

The purpose of this paper is to explain the interaction mechanism between the capital structure of a modern company, the implying agency cost that is raised when the company is expanding and the corporate governance system that should be implemented in order to achieve a smoothness of the implied internal friction. The corporate governance experien...

In this study we propose a new determinant of non-performing loans for the case of the Greek banking sector. We employ aggregate yearly data for the period 1996-2016 and we conduct a Principal Component Analysis for all the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for Greece, aiming to isolate the common component and thus to create the GOVERNANCE ind...

Non Performing Loans, Governance Indicators and Systemic Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Greece.

In this study we propose a new determinant of non-performing loans for the case of the Greek banking sector. We employ aggregate yearly data for the period 1996- 2016 and we conduct a Principal Component Analysis for all the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for Greece, aiming to isolate the common component and thus to create the GOVERNANCE in...

We examine the effectiveness of GARCH models and the SV model in foreign exchange rates and the stock indices of the BRICS. The empirical analysis is conducted using the daily log returns. The data cover the period 13/05/1999-22/11/2018. The theoretical results are confirmed by running the models with the use of R programming language. The conditio...

The purpose of this paper is to explain the interaction mechanism between the capital structure of a modern company, the implying agency cost that is raised when the company is expanding and the corporate governance system that should be implemented in order to achieve a smoothness of the implied internal friction. The corporate governance experien...

Using a wide range of models we document a protracted fall in the natural (or neutral) rate of interest in advanced economies, driven by ageing, waning productivity growth, a rise in mark-ups, and a surge in risk aversion in the wake of the global financial crisis. While our neutral rate estimates are highly uncertain and model dependent, most of t...

Efficient pricing in the gasoline market has often been the subject of public debate in Greece during the recent years. The present paper: (a) Investigates the possible existence of asymmetric adjustment of gasoline prices to oil price variations in the Greek market in the recent years, thus contributing to the relevant literature. (b) Examines whe...

The paper investigates empirically the existence of asymmetry in the speed of adjustment at the retail prices of a selected group of basic foods to their long-term equilibrium level. Possible asymmetry would have a significant impact as it would disproportionately burden lower-income consumers who tend to spend a higher proportion of their income o...

Τhe main purpose of this paper is to provide robust evidence in response to the public concern and the mixed results provided by the earlier studies. To this end: The paper uses all available observations for the variables under consideration [January 2005 – December 2017 (n=640 weekly obs) ]. The Greek oil market is analysed using observations of...

The main purpose of the paper is to investigate the existence of asymmetry in the long-term adjustment of retail prices in relation to changes in producer prices in the main categories of food: cereals, dairy, eat, fruits and vegetables. The existence of asymmetry implies a lack of competition and distortions in the food market. The technique of th...

This note presents an estimation of the natural or “equilibrium” real interest rate, r*, for the Greek economy using the well-established Laubach-Williams (2003) methodology framework. To our best of my knowledge there is a very little empirical evidence for the Greek economy. Even though one would expect r* for the Greek economy to be very low, ba...

The paper investigates empirically the existence of asymmetry in the speed of adjustment at the retail prices of a selected group of basic foods to their long-term equilibrium level. Possible asymmetry would have a significant impact as it would disproportionately burden lower-income consumers who tend to spend a higher proportion of their income o...

3 ο. Υπάρχει ασυμμετρία προσαρμογής των λιανικών τιμών της βενζίνης ; Η περίπτωση της ελληνικής αγοράς καυσίμων. Σύνοψη Ο βασικός στόχος του Κεφαλαίου 3 είναι να διερευνήσει εμπειρικά την ύπαρξη ασυμμετρίας στην προσαρμογή των λιανικών τιμών της αμόλυβδης βενζίνης σε σχέση με το μακροχρόνιο επίπεδο ισορροπίας τους στην περίπτωση της ελληνικής αγορά...

The process, the mechanisms and the particular characteristics of price transmission in various sectors of economic activity are a field of continuous academic study as they have significant social impacts. Prices are the main mechanism linking the different levels of the vertical supply chain and therefore the understanding of transmission and adj...

In this paper we attempt to assess the extent to which conversion policies involving the shift of resources from the defence to the non-defence sector may entail some form of peace dividend for the economy of Greece. The issue has become one of increasing importance during the past few years during which the demand for growth-supporting policies ha...

To identify the determinants of house prices. To provide reliable forecasts of house prices. This is of importance as: House price projections are used in Stress Testing Exercises implying a high level of public scrutiny of the outcomes. Residential property accounts for around 82% of collateral requested by banks. As a consequence house prices pla...

This paper presents a selected review of what the literature discusses in terms of modelling and forecasting house prices. In particular, it distils fundamental and “other” determinants of house prices used in economic models and identifies the most commonly used econometric approaches to estimate and forecast house prices.

The exit of the UK from the EU (henceforth “Brexit”) following the referendum of June 23, 2016 is expected to have negative macroeconomic effects on the economies of the Member-states and the euro area as a whole.The simulation results provide evidence that the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the Greek economy is expected to be relative small.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing has a significant predictive power on GDP growth rates. There is a rich international literature, the results of which show that the PMI is a very useful source of information for GDP forecasting. For this reason, the PMI index is used as a major determinant variable in the short term models wh...

The book introduces the reader to the essential concepts of money and credit. Using economic analysis tools, it presents the role, the characteristics and the importance of money. It deals with the definition of money and the its price –purchasing power, as well as the demand for and the supply of money, their determinants and how they are combined...

The influx of shipping receipts from the world's leading fleet has been critical for the development of the Greek economy. Following the disastrous September of 2008, the range and speed of the shift in direction of the freight rates, combined with the general economic and credit climate, have had a significant impact on Greek receipts from shippin...

Γιατί μας ενδιαφέρει να προσδιορίσουμε τους παράγοντες που επηρεάζουν τις εισπράξεις από τις θαλάσσιες μεταφορές? –Η βασική εθνικολογιστική ταυτότητα, η εγχώρια ζήτηση και ο εξωτερικός τομέας. –Τα μερίδια των συνιστωσών του ΑΕΠ. – Οι προσδιοριστικοί παράγοντες των εξαγωγών. – Η σημασία των θαλασσίων εισπράξεων στην εξέλιξη των εξαγόμενων υπηρεσιών...

The paper re-investigates both the long and short term determinants of shipping inflows in the Greek balance of payments throughout this turbulent period marked by high freight market volatility by using a symmetric error correction framework (ECM). The authors assess also the presence of any asymmetric adjustment through the estimation of an asymm...

The receipts from shipping services have been a vital resource for the Greek economy covering a perennial trade deficit. The downward adjustment in freight rates following the Lehman brothers collapse was swift severely impacting shipping inflows into the Greek economy. Almost two years later, Greece, facing a debt crisis, had to conclude an econom...

This note reviews the recent relevant literature and provides empirical evidence that fluctuations of the international price of oil have a significant impact on the Greek economic activity and inflation. In particular, the main conclusions that emerge from the literature review are the following: A permanent 40% reduction in the international pri...

This paper examines the relationship between unit labor costs and price developments for the whole economy and for the main sectors. For the period 2000-2013 the econometric investigation provides evidence that prices and unit labor costs are characterized by a long-run equilibrium relationship and that for the whole economy, prices influence the d...

Τι είναι το ESA 2010 ? Ένα πλαίσιο λογαριασμών, διεθνώς συγκρίσιμο, που στοχεύει στη λεπτομερή και συστηματική παρακολούθηση της συνολικής οικονομίας (χώρα, περιφέρεια, σύνολο χωρών).