Yusaku Horiuchi

Yusaku Horiuchi
Dartmouth College · Department of Government

Doctor of Philosophy
Professor of Government and Mitsui Professor of Japanese Studies

About

98
Publications
13,367
Reads
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1,145
Citations
Introduction
My research focuses on applying experimental designs and statistical methods to a wide range of empirical questions in political science. Substantive research interests include Japanese politics, foreign public opinion, diversity (race/ethnicity, gender, immigration), electoral politics, and political methodology.
Additional affiliations
July 2012 - present
Dartmouth College
Position
  • Professor
July 2004 - June 2012
Australian National University
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
July 2001 - June 2003
National University of Singapore
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
Education
September 1995 - June 2021
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Field of study
  • Political Science
September 1993 - May 1995
Yale University
Field of study
  • Economics
April 1987 - March 1991
Keio University
Field of study
  • Economics

Publications

Publications (98)
Preprint
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To what extent has the Ukrainian refugee crisis altered citizens' attitudes toward refugee resettlement? Leveraging data from original repeated surveys of citizens in the ten countries with the largest refugee resettlement programs, we examine changes in public opinion before and after the crisis. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in suppo...
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Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and str...
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The number of multiracial candidates seeking office is growing in an increasingly diverse America. This raises questions about how the media frame candidates with potentially complex racial backgrounds and how voters respond to these frames. We investigate the impact of media frames that emphasize race and gender attributes using survey experiments...
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While most existing research attributes contemporary Japanese emigration to the pursuit of a better lifestyle, recent qualitative studies point out that concern about country risks is a significant driver . We explore Japan’s brain-drain potential and factors shaping Japanese skilled workers’ interest in emigrating to other countries based on our o...
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How can we elicit honest responses in surveys? Conjoint analysis has become a popular tool to address social desirability bias (SDB), or systematic survey misreporting on sensitive topics. However, there has been no direct evidence showing its suitability for this purpose. We propose a novel experimental design to identify conjoint analysis’s abili...
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Although many governments invest significant resources in public-diplomacy campaigns, there is little well-identified evidence of these efforts’ effectiveness. We examine the effects of a major type of public diplomacy: high-level visits by national leaders to other countries. We combine a dataset of the international travels of 15 leaders from 9 c...
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Although reaching the voting age and getting enrolled in the voters’ list is an essential first step in the electoral process, existing studies have rarely investigated its effects on citizens’ socio-political experiences and civic attitudes. To fill this gap, we leverage a natural experiment in Japan, where citizens who turn eighteen years old and...
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To what extent does exposure to immigration condition the types of immigrants citizens are willing to admit? Extending the conjoint approach adopted by Hainmueller and Hopkins (Am J Pol Sci 59(3):529–548, 2015), this study investigates whether the admission preferences of French natives vary based on personal exposure to immigration, as proxied by...
Article
The recent surge in protectionist sentiment in countries around the world has rekindled the long-standing debate over the determinants of citizens’ trade policy preferences. We examine the influence of two understudied but increasingly relevant factors – misinformation and economic threat – on support for international trade in the United States. W...
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Although pre-electoral political manipulation of the budget — the political budget cycle (PBC) — has been long investigated by scholars, empirical findings are mixed at best. This is partly because of the non-random nature of election timing. There also exist ongoing debates over how the budget is manipulated for electoral purposes. We address thes...
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The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a devastating global health crisis. Without a vaccine or effective medication, the best hope for mitigating virus transmission is collective behavior change and support for public health interventions (e.g., physical distancing, physical hygiene, and endorsement of health policies). In a large-scale international co...
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The U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently made foreign countries central to his political messages, often conveying animosity. But do foreign citizens react more to the speaker of these messages—Trump himself—or their content? More generally, when people are exposed to messages sent from foreign countries, are their attitudes influenced by inf...
Preprint
In a recently published article, Allen et. a. (2020) argue that U.S. military deployments nurture favorable attitudes toward the U.S. among foreign citizens. Their claim is based on social contact and economic compensation theories, applied to a large-scale cross-national survey project funded by the U.S. government. However, their analysis disrega...
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The gender publication gap puts women at a disadvantage for tenure and promotion, which contributes to the discipline’s leaky pipeline. Several studies published in PS find no evidence of gender bias in the review process and instead suggest that submission pools are distorted by gender. To make a contribution to this important debate, we fielded a...
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In recent years, concerns about misinformation in the media have skyrocketed. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that various news outlets are disseminating ‘fake news’ for political purposes. But when the information contained in mainstream media news reports provides no clear clues about its truth value or any indication of a partisan...
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Although the value of diversity—in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status—to the U.S. military has been subject to debate, preferences for diversity at educational institutions for the military officers are rarely examined systematically. To address this, we investigate whether midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy favor prioriti...
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What explains the scarcity of women and under-represented minorities among university faculty relative to their share of Ph.D. recipients? Among many potential explanations, we focus on the “demand” side of faculty diversity. Using fully randomized conjoint analysis, we explore patterns of support for, and resistance to, the hiring of faculty candi...
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Although politicians’ personal attributes are an important component of elections and representation, few studies have rigorously investigated which attributes are most relevant in shaping voters’ preferences for politicians, or whether these preferences vary across different electoral system contexts. We investigate these questions with a conjoint...
Article
Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by parties into competing bundles of policies, or “manifestos,” which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This aggregation process obscures the multidimensional policy preferences underlying a voter’s single choice of party or candidate. We address this p...
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Japan's remarkable postwar growth spurt in the 1960s would not have been possible without Japan's alliance with the United States. Policy makers, political scientists, economists, historians, and journalists on both sides of the Pacific have made this claim, but no study has yet tested it with modern statistical methods. In this article, we compare...
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Existing studies—most importantly, Gomez, Hansford, and Krause—provide empirical support for an idea often embraced by popular media: The vote share of the Republican Party (as the percentage of total votes) increases when it rains, because the magnitude of decrease in turnout is larger among Democratic vis-à-vis Republican supporters. Considering...
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One week after President Donald Trump signed a controversial executive order to reduce the influx of refugees to the United States, we conducted a survey experiment to understand American citizens’ attitudes toward refugee resettlement. Specifically, we evaluated whether citizens consider the geographic context of the resettlement program (that is,...
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What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing...
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Although numerous get-out-the-vote field experiments have identified the effects of particular mobilization tactics (e.g., canvassing, phone calls, direct mails) on voter turnout, we do not yet have a full understanding of the causal effect of overall mobilization. We study this by leveraging a natural experiment in Japan, in which the timing of a...
Article
While the existing literature has identified a sizable incumbency advantage in single-member district (SMD) races in developed democracies, we argue that some political and institutional contexts of Japan’s Lower House elections would undermine the incumbency advantage. Our regression discontinuity (RD) analysis indeed shows little advantage, and f...
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Why do some politicians acquire more posts and achieve faster career progression, while others do not? We argue that it is the opportunity for members of parliament (MPs) to develop and demonstrate their effectiveness as lawmakers and politicians that helps them develop political careers. By leveraging a natural experiment in the United Kingdom whe...
Article
The personal attributes of politicians are often important in determining the outcomes of elections, yet few studies have rigorously investigated which particular personal attributes (among many) are most relevant in shaping voters' preferences for politicians. We investigate this question with a conjoint survey experiment in Japan. In contrast to...
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Randomized ballot order of electoral candidates prevents unfair advantages for candidates with favorable positions on a ballot, but it also places additional cognitive strain on voters who need to search for their preferred candidates without clues. This strain could increase voters' probability of making errors. Using more than 68,000 polling-plac...
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In this article we examine the role of local politicians in affecting national-level election outcomes by focusing on the drastic municipal mergers in Japan that took place in the early 2000s. Specifically, we argue that the political party that relies most extensively on local politicians' efforts for electoral mobilization and monitoring will suf...
Article
Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by political parties into competing bundles of policies (manifestos), which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This process makes it difficult to understand the multidimensional policy preferences underlying a voter's single choice (vote for a particular...
Article
While the existing literature has identified a sizable incumbency advantage in single-member district (SMD) races in developed democracies, we argue that some political and institutional contexts of Japan's Lower House elections would undermine the incumbency advantage. Our regression discontinuity (RD) analysis indeed shows little advantage, and f...
Article
The two-party vote share of the Republican Party in U.S. elections tends to increase when it rains, but its mechanism is not fully understood. Existing studies focus on the costs of participation and argue that bad weather hurts the Democratic Party disproportionately because cost-sensitive marginal voters tend to be supporters of the Democratic Pa...
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What would Israel’s economy have looked like without the 2000 Palestinian Intifada? This article examines this counterfactual question by statistically comparing the economic growth trajectories of Israel and a “synthetic” Israel, which is constructed by applying a method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller...
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What difference does it make if more, or fewer, people vote? What difference would it make if the state makes people vote? These questions are central both to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy and to contemporary policy debates in a variety of countries over what actions states should take to encourage elector...
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Does higher (lower) voter turnout produce more votes for parties on the left (right)? Over the course of the past seven decades, both academics and the media have studied this question at length. In this paper, however, we argue that whether voter turnout has a causal effect on the outcome of an election is a "fundamentally unidentified question" (...
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Social scientists have long investigated the roles of citizens’ civic attitudes and associational life in democracies. Yet, it remains to be fully elucidated whether their attitudes and activities not only influence but also are influenced by the political process in democracies. To address this question, we estimate the socio-attitudinal impacts o...
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Does foreign aid extended by one country improve that country’s image among populations of recipient countries? Using a multinational survey, we show that a United States aid program targeted to address HIV and AIDS substantially improves perceptions of the U.S. Our identification strategy for causal inference is to use instrumental variables measu...
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In this paper, using our original data on party leadership succession in twenty-three parliamentary democracies, we investigate the determinants of a party leader’s survival rate: how long he/she remains in office. Unlike previous studies, which focus on institutional settings of leadership selection or on situational (political, economic, and inte...
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When does a political party decide to hold a primary election to choose a candidate for the next election, and when does an incumbent decide to announce his/her political retirement? Furthermore, if they make decisions interactively, how do their decisions affect the quality – 'valence' - of the candidate who ends up running for the party? In this...
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Does “soft power” matter in international relations? Specifically, when the U.S. seeks cooperation from countries around the world, do the views of their publics about U.S. foreign policy affect the actual foreign policy behavior of these countries? We examine this question using multinational surveys covering 58 countries, combined with informatio...
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Previous studies examining whether the faces of candidates affect election outcomes commonly measure study participants’ subjective judgment of various characteristics of candidates, which participants infer based solely on the photographic images of candidates. We, instead, develop a smile index of such images objectively with automated face recog...
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Samuels and Snyder (BJPS, 2001) presented the index of malapportionment (i.e., the discrepancy between seat shares and population shares by electoral districts) in national legislatures for seventy eight countries. This short research note uses their index and the Gini index, a commonly used measure of income inequality, and shows that democracies...
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Weak electoral registration requirements are commonly thought to encourage electoral participation, but may also promote electoral fraud. For one, candidates and their supporters can more easily mobilize voters outside the district to register and vote for the candidates, even though these voters do not reside within the district. We statistically...
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We explore in this article an institutional foundation of agricultural protectionism in Japan, a country long recognized as resisting international pressures to open up its rice market. Using our qualitative analysis of postwar politics of agricultural protectionism and a simple formal model, we argue that farmers in Japan have stronger incentives...
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Japanese politics is by no means a new subject to research for political scientists. Over many decades, scholars have written numerous books and journal articles in English on Japanese politics. Some are specifically aimed at understanding political and policy processes in Japan, while others use Japan as a case study, often in comparison with othe...
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Global public opinion has emerged as a prominent issue in international relations. But have U.S. public diplomacy efforts during the post-9/11 period successfully improved foreign publics’ appraisals of U.S. foreign policy? We examine this question by estimating the effects of U.S. high-level visits to foreign countries on public opinion in those c...
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It has been reported in the media that bid rigging is commonly practised in almost all public works projects in Japan. It was also said that the Japanese anti-trust authority, the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC), was a watchdog that did not bite, in spite of having a long history of enforcement since 1947. However, the situation is significantly...
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Although whether there is political influence on distributive policies is now indisputable, important debates have emerged about how politics distorts distributive policy outcomes. In this article, the authors improve the understanding of distributive politics by focusing on South Korea. They argue that because of Korea-specific institutional and c...
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Randomized experiments are becoming increasingly common in political science. Despite their well-known advantages over observational studies, randomized experiments are not free from complications. In particular, researchers often cannot force subjects to comply with treatment assignment and to provide the requested information. Furthermore, simple...
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Political scientists have hypothesized that more policy information leads to a higher voter turnout. To empirically test this hypothesis, we conducted an Internet-based randomized field experiment during Japan's 2004 Upper House election. Japan's 2004 election is ideal for testing our hypothesis because political parties proposed formal policies or...
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American and European political scientists have claimed that subnational elections record lower voter turnout than national elections in most democracies. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, Japanese municipal elections often record considerably higher voter turnout than national elections, particularly in small towns and villages. Why is Japan d...
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American and European political scientists have claimed that subnational elections almost always record lower voter turnout than national elections. In Japan, however, municipal elections often record considerably higher turnout than national elections, particularly in small towns and villages. Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation i...
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Theoretical studies suggest that corruption may counteract government failure and promote economic growth in the short run, given exogenously determined suboptimal bureaucratic rules and regulations. As the government failure is itself a function of corruption, however, corruption should have detrimental effects on economic growth in the long run....
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What affects global public opinion about U.S. foreign policy? The authors examine this question using a cross-national survey conducted during and immediately after the 2001 U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. They propose three models of global public opinion — interests, socialization, and influence — and discuss their empirical validity. Socialization...
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Full-text available
Political scientists since Anthony Downs (1957) have hypothesized that more policy information leads to a higher voter turnout. To empirically test this hypothesis, we conducted an Internet-based randomized field experiment during Japan’s 2004 Upper House election. Japan’s 2004 election is ideal for testing our hypothesis because political parties...
Article
Full-text available
Does reapportionment in a legislature affect policy outcomes? We examine this question from a comparative perspective by focusing on reapportionment associated with the electoral reform in Japan. First, we show that the reform of 1994 resulted in an unprecedented degree of equalization in legislative representation. Second, using municipal-level da...