Yuri Sinyak

• PhD
• Russian Academy of Sciences

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the feature...

The paper estimates the generalization of world conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources taking into account the extent of their exploration and reliability. The economic assessments of their recovery are given with a breakdown by country (geographic areas). These generalized assessments of resources of hydrocarbon fuels are made for t...

The authors of this study analyze trends in operating and capital expenses in Russia’s oil and gas sector in 2000–2011 using available statistical data and give their forecast estimates for the industry in the medium-term perspective.

The paper considers macroeconomic forecasts of the performance of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) up to 2030–2040 based on projections of economic development (worked out at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences), predictive assessments of the economic aspects of the production of major fuel types, Russia’s invol...

The paper considers possible approaches to the comparison of traditional and alternative motor fuels. We present estimates of the economic efficiency of fuels in relation to possible price ratios, expected environmental damage during the operation of vehicles in urban and rural areas, and the projected technical and economic parameters of the compa...

In this paper we study alternative ways to meet the demand for motor fuels growing in connection with the inevitable rise in oil prices over the next decade or two. One of these is to use natural gas as a motor fuel and as a raw material for synthetic motor oils. Calculation results of the comparative effectiveness of the gas-to-liquids (GTL) techn...

Carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion in the fuel and energy systems (FES) and production industries are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the long-term forecast of the development of the former. The carbon sequestration by forest and nonforest biomes is calculated. Based on the global balance of carbon fluxes, a long-term national c...

The main factors that influence the consumption of heat energy in the centralized heating supply systems in the long term are discussed in this article. Consumption of heat energy by the population for space heating and hot water will be the most significant component of the demand. The possible extents of heat consumption and heat saving in the bu...

The paper overviews the contemporary state of Russia’s heat supply systems and fuel consumption within its centralized part, the structure of heat consumption by economic sectors and types of industrial consumers. As shown, the centralized heat supply systems, providing the major part of country’s economy with low temperature heat, have heat losses...

This paper examines conditions for the competitiveness of hydrogen versus conventional hydrocarbon motor fuels. The economic efficiency of different alternative fuels is analyzed on the basis of specially designed models that can incorporate a broad variety of technical and economic parameters of fuel production, distribution and use. Main attentio...

The results of modeling Russia’s electricity generation and electrification until 2030 are presented. Prospects were made out for two scenarios of socioeconomic development in relation to the dynamics of electricity generation and related industries of the country’s energy system. Electrification and energy generation/consumption levels are assesse...

This paper looks at the most promising technologies of hydrogen production and transportation. Specially developed economical-technological models were used to develop projections of the expected cost of hydrogen in centralized systems of production and transportation. The projections reflect the wide variation of initial parameters and the uncerta...

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and Eas...

Possible uses of hydrogen produced from natural gas in fuel cells in decentralized power and heat supply systems are considered. Conditions for the competitiveness of the new technology compared to centralized and decentralized systems based on heat-and-power miniplants with gas-turbine and gas-piston engines are defined. Fuel cell-based systems th...

The possible forms of interaction between Russia and Europe in the field of energy in the near and a more distant future are analyzed. Their relations are examined from the political, legal and, most importantly, economic point of view. The world and European demand for energy resources is evaluated. The most promising hydrocarbon resources are exa...

The article presents the results of the long-term forecast of development of the national fuel-and-power industries in the context of three macro-regions – the European part, Ural and Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. Two economic scenarios are considered: the inertial one which implies faint efforts for structural moderniz...

This study looks for a reasonable nuclear policy in the region based on numerical estimates of expected risks and economic assessments of possible options of phasing-out unsafe and obsolete nuclear reactors. A long-term future for nuclear energy is analyzed for three main energy scenarios with a different impacts to the response to climate change....

Nuclear power in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is one of the mostly debated issues. There are many controversial opinions around this topic, but lack of data and unstable economic and political climate have prevented the situation from guaranteed improvements in the near future. The goal of this study is to look for a reasonable...

Consensus exists that further environmental pollution and climate change could be prevented if energy systems' emissions are significantly reduced. But energy will remain one of the most active driving forces of social and economic progress over the whole 21st century. This predetermines the necessity and expediency for long-term energy studies. Gl...

We analyse long-term energy prospects from the point of view of future carbon dioxide emissions and constraints imposed by possible changes in the global climate. The approach is based on scenario simulations of technical, economic, social, and cultural changes which determine future energy use and their environmental impacts to the middle of the n...

The former Soviet Union, in common with the other ex-socialist countries of central and eastern Europe, faces an uncertain period of industrial and social reform. One thing, however, is clear, the future economy of the former USSR will be less energy intensive than it has been in the past. To improve energy efficiency will need capital and time, bo...

The nature of future energy development in different regions of the world are rather uncertain due to unclear results of technological progress in nuclear and renewable energy sources, environmental consequences including CO<sub align="right"> 2 </sub> emissions, etc. Nevertheless, further growth in energy demands, mainly in developing countries, w...

The use of mathematical computer models in the Soviet energy system goes back to the late 1950s. The energy systems were one of the first sectors of the national economy in which these new tools were applied. There was, at that time, considerable enthusiasm over the supposed ability of such models to solve economic planning problems but this soon t...

The U.S.S.R. is the largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer in the world. Its share of global energy use reached above 17% in 1988. The Soviet energy system is characterized by low efficiency and high per capita energy consumption, although there are some reasons justifying the greater U.S.S.R. energy use per unit of product...

Investigates various long-term scenarios of energy development in the USSR, including a stabilisation of energy consumption by the beginning of the 21st century, and a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030. Following an introduction to the Soviet energy system and its critical features, and the main sources of energy supply difficulties, the autho...

The effectiveness of utilization and the possible contribution to the USSR energy balance of the technology of anaerobic fermentation of organic waste with production of energy (biogas) and fertilizer is considered. Attention is concentrated on optimization of technology parameters so as to maximize the effect with minimal national-economic outlays...

The fuel and power industry is one of the main sectors of the economy and largely determines the level of development of the productive forces of society. The growth rate of the world energy economy, especially in the 1950s and 1960s, has been very high: the output of all forms of primary energy rose from 2.7 billion tons of standard fuel in 1950 t...