Yuri Calleo

University College Dublin | UCD · Spatial Dynamics Lab | Department of Architecture, Planning & Environmental Policy

In the Future Studies context, the scenario development process is an established method for the identification of future projections, useful to avoid future threats and take different actions in the present. The development of future scenarios is often combined with different participatory approaches, one among many is the Delphi method, widely ad...

The Delphi technique is a commonly applied method for (among the various uses) achieving consensus from a group of knowledgeable experts. This approach is frequently employed to generate and prioritize ideas, identify potential solutions, and make decisions in various contexts through a series of iterative rounds. In the Futures Studies (FS) contex...

In the Futures Studies context, the Delphi-based scenario (DBS) is a valuable method for setting future-oriented strategies and actions by gathering expert opinions in multiple iterative rounds, in order to make better decisions in the present. However, one of the main challenges is to find a suitable representation of the scenarios both for evalua...

The spatial planning process is considered an extremely complex system, as it comprises different variables that interrelate and interact with each other. Effectively addressing this spatial complexity necessitates a multidisciplinary approach, as unified methodologies may prove insufficient. Specifically, in urban planning, it is increasingly cruc...

Effective urban logistics planning plays a crucial role in effectively managing infrastructure and transportation networks, contributing to the mitigation of negative externalities associated with last-mile deliveries and fostering city sustainability. Among the various facets of supply chain management, selecting appropriate locations in urban are...

In the Futures Studies context (FS), scenarios refer to speculative visions of potential future states or situations that may arise based on a combination of existing trends, emerging technologies, and variousfactors(Kosow and Gaßner, 2008). Scenarios provide a framework for exploring and anticipating various possibilities, enabling individuals,...

Spatial complexity, defined by a multitude of interconnected variables, is recognized as one of the most challenging forms to predict. Given the inherent unpredictability of the future and the limited utility of forecasting models for long-term predictions, this paper proposes an integrated approach for navigating various potential futures. For the...

This paper addresses the challenge of analyzing future tra-jectories, crucial for goal attainment. While some models like the State of the Future Index (SOFI) provide insights into potential trends, they necessitate complementarity with qualitative methods for comprehensive understanding. Despite its efficacy, SOFI's condensation of diverse variabl...

RT-GSCS is a web-based open platform facilitating dynamic spatial surveys and consensus-building. It supports multiple surveys, where users engage through a user-friendly map interface, contributing opinions in real-time. RT-GSCS employs a spatial consensus algorithm inspired by the Delphi method, visually representing experts' opinions on the map....

The Real-Time Geo-Spatial Consensus System (RT-GSCS) is a web-based open-source tool designed for the administration of real-time spatial surveys. One distinguishing feature of this system lies in the adoption of the RealTime Spatial Delphi logic as the main computational algorithm to achieve a convergence of opinions within a group of individuals....

The spatial planning process is considered an extremely complex system, as it is made up of different variables that interrelate and interact with each other. Effectively addressing this spatial complexity necessitates a multidisciplinary approach, as unified methodologies may prove insufficient. Specifically, in urban planning, it is increasingly...

Urban logistics has become part of the citizens' life, who often use e-commerce options to buy goods and groceries. The constant increase of this phenomenon which has been witnessed in recent years led to a consequent increase in the externalities associated with it, such as air pollution, traffic, land occupation and accidents generated by the veh...

The Delphi-based scenarios (DBS) development implies the assumption of different choices, through the gathering of information and the assessment of alternative resolutions (Panpatte and Takale, 2019). During the last decades, the spread of environmental hazards has increased quickly, much to request different responses in order to develop a sustai...

The Delphi method is a structured communication approach used to gather and process expert judgments in order to make predictions or estimates about a specific issue. In the Futures Studies (FS) context, the Delphi method is combined with different methods, however, one of the main combinations is with the scenario method, forming the Delphi-based...

Although the transport systems have improved in recent years, they are still leading to different issues for sustainability. Developing a sustainable future of transport becomes essential and since the future is characterized by various trajectories, there is a need for careful and detailed planning and management of alternative solutions. Among th...

In Future Studies, the scenario planning process represents a valuable approach to build images of plausible futures, to set better policy actions in the present. However, the whole process requires great efforts due to the time consuming in selecting the key drivers and issues on the selection of a panel of experts. With the proliferation of web-b...

The spread of climate change uncertainty among citizens requires the adoption of different methods to understand the public view and to take efficient actions. In the Big Data framework, a large amount of data from location-aware devices are available, which can constitute a valuable information resource. However, in social networks, the lack of ge...

In the context of Futures Studies, the scenario development process permits to make assumptions on what the futures can be in order to support better today decisions. In the initial stages of the scenario building (Framing and Scanning phases), the process requires much time and efforts to scanning data and information (reading of documents, litera...

From the exponential increase of communication platforms – which nowadays – have taken possession of our lives, an unquantifiable flow of data has emerged exponentially. It is under- standable that the same platforms (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Foursquare etc.) have somehow had to protect themselves (Puschmann & Burgess, 2013) from those w...

The scenario planning process consists of various steps and the initial stages (typically Framing and Scanning), are those that require much time and efforts, because imply the consultation of experts, reading of documents and review of the scientific literature on the subject dealt with. A new approach to speed the Scanning phase – which implies c...