Xavier Rodo

Xavier Rodo
ISGlobal (Barcelona Institute of Global Health) · Climate and Health Program

PhD in numerical ecology

About

175
Publications
34,139
Reads
How we measure 'reads'
A 'read' is counted each time someone views a publication summary (such as the title, abstract, and list of authors), clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the full-text. Learn more
6,135
Citations
Additional affiliations
August 2008 - present
IC3 Catalan Climate Sciences Institute
Position
  • ICREA Research professor
July 2008 - present
Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
Position
  • ICREA Research professor
January 2001 - July 2008
Barcelona Science Park
Position
  • Head of Lab

Publications

Publications (175)
Article
There are important questions surrounding the potential contribution of outdoor and indoor air quality in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and perpetuation of COVID-19 epidemic waves. Environmental health may be a critical component of COVID-19 prevention. The public health community and health agencies should consider the evolving evidence in their...
Article
Full-text available
The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial...
Article
Full-text available
Background Europe has emerged as a major climate change hotspot, both in terms of an increase in seasonal averages and climate extremes. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality, however, have not been comprehensively reported for an extensive part of the continent. Therefore, we aim to estimate the future effect of climate change on tempe...
Preprint
Full-text available
Explanations for the genesis and propagation of recurrent cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary change of the pathogen is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th El Tor pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. We investigate the concomitant roles of climate and putat...
Article
Climate change can both facilitate zoonotic spillovers and have an effect on transmission chains. These effects, alongside human behavior and awareness, need to be integrated in pandemic forecasting models.
Article
Full-text available
A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the...
Article
Full-text available
The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cancer. These characteristics are consistent with the multi-step model of disease. We applied this model to Covid-19 case fatality rates (...
Preprint
Full-text available
The role of climate in the population dynamics of COVID-19 remains poorly understood, and a true seasonal signature has remained elusive. Data from both hemispheres and the second wave provide opportunities to further examine climatic drivers. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show consistent negative effects...
Article
Full-text available
After the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, evolution in the pandemic worldwide shows dramatic differences among countries. In Europe, the situation of Italy first and later Spain has generated great concen, and despite other countries show better prospects, large uncertainties yet remain on the future evolution and the efficacy of co...
Article
Full-text available
Early studies of weather, seasonality, and environmental influences on COVID-19 have yielded inconsistent and confusing results. To provide policy-makers and the public with meaningful and actionable environmentally-informed COVID-19 risk estimates, the research community must meet robust methodological and communication standards. When COVID-19 be...
Article
Full-text available
During the summer of 2018, a widespread drought developed over Northern and Central Europe. The increase in temperature and the reduction of soil moisture have influenced carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in various ways, such as a reduction of photosynthesis, changes in ecosystem respiration, or allowi...
Article
Sea surface temperature conditions in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific have indicated a mild El Niño event since October 2018, which currently continues throughout the spring of 2019. The global El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast consensus is that these generally weak warm patterns will persist at least until the end of the summer. El...
Article
Full-text available
The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying e...
Preprint
Anthropogenic pollution has frequently been linked to myriad human ailments despite clear mechanistic links are yet lacking, a fact that severely downgraded its actual relevance. Now a prominent unnoticed sub-weekly cycle (SWC) of 3.5 days is uncovered in the long-term epidemiological records of Kawasaki disease (KD) in Japan, a mysterious vasculit...
Preprint
Full-text available
Covid-19 death has a different relationship with age than is the case for other severe respiratory pathogens. The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are age itself, as well as having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cance...
Preprint
After the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, the world approaches the 2 million declared infected cases and death toll rises well above the 100 thousand. The course of pandemic evolution has shown great differences among countries and not much is yet known about the level of generated immunity, which might appear not to be long-lasting. In...
Preprint
Full-text available
After the spread of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic out of China, evolution in the pandemic worldwide shows dramatic differences among countries. In Europe, the situation of Italy first and later Spain has generated great concern, and despite other countries show better prospects, large uncertainties yet remain on the future evolution and the efficacy of conta...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the transition of epidemic to endemic dengue transmission remains a challenge in regions where serotypes co-circulate and there is extensive human mobility. French Polynesia, an isolated group of 117 islands of which 72 are inhabited, distributed among five geographically separated subdivisions, has recorded mono-serotype epidemics si...
Article
Full-text available
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe acute respiratory illness with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 35,5%. The highest number of MERS-CoV cases are from Saudi-Arabia, the major worldwide hotspot for this disease. In the absence of neither effective treatment nor a ready-to-use vaccine and with yet an incomplete unders...
Article
Full-text available
Background: In allergic rhinitis, a relevant outcome providing information on the effectiveness of interventions is needed. In MASK-air (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network), a visual analogue scale (VAS) for work is used as a relevant outcome. This study aimed to assess the performance of the work VAS work by comparing VAS work with other VAS measure...
Article
Full-text available
Recent advances on the environmental determinants of Kawasaki Disease have pointed to the important role of the atmospheric transport of a still unknown agent potentially triggering the disease. The hypothesis arose from an innovative methodology combining expertise in climate dynamics, the analysis of ocean and atmosphere data, the use of dispersi...
Article
Full-text available
Background: In all societies, the burden and cost of allergic and chronic respiratory diseases are increasing rapidly. Most economies are struggling to deliver modern health care effectively. There is a need to support the transformation of the health care system into integrated care with organizational health literacy. Main body: As an example...
Article
Full-text available
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be use...
Article
The theoretical predictability limit of El Niño–Southern Oscillation has been shown to be on the order of years, but long-lead predictions of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) are still lacking. State-of-the-art forecasting schemes traditionally do not predict beyond the spring barrier. Recent efforts have been dedicated to the improvement of dynamical...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Mobile technology may help to better understand the adherence to treatment. MASK-rhinitis (Mobile Airways Sentinel NetworK for allergic rhinitis) is a patient-centred ICT system. A mobile phone app (the Allergy Diary) central to MASK is available in 22 countries. Objectives: To assess the adherence to treatment in allergic rhinitis pat...
Article
Full-text available
Long-lead forecasts of El Niño events are lacking despite their enormous societal and economic impacts. These climatic events lead to floods and droughts in many tropical regions, and damage agriculture and the economy in poor countries. Due to their impact on local climate, they can also affect human health by increasing the risk of vector-borne d...
Article
Full-text available
Previous studies have consistently shown the recurrent relationship between macroeconomic cycles and changes in mortality trends, so that recessions are generally associated with periods of faster life expectancy rise, and periods of economic growth with slower reductions or even increases in mortality trends. Here we analyze the link between annua...
Article
Full-text available
Allergic rhinitis (AR) is impacted by allergens and air pollution but interactions between air pollution, sleep and allergic diseases are insufficiently understood. POLLAR (Impact of air POLLution on sleep, Asthma and Rhinitis) is a project of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT Health). It will use a freely-existing applicatio...
Article
Full-text available
BACKGROUND: Collecting data on the localization of users is a key issue for the MASK (Mobile Airways Sentinel networK: the Allergy Diary) App. Data anonymization is a method of sanitization for privacy. The European Commission's Article 29 Working Party stated that geolocation information is personal data.To assess geolocation using the MASK method...
Article
Full-text available
The ClimaDat station at Gredos (GIC3) has been continuously measuring atmospheric (dry air) mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), as well as meteorological parameters, since November 2012. In this study we investigate the atmospheric variability of CH4 mixing ratios between 2013 and 2015 at GIC3 with the help of co-located observ...
Conference Paper
La maladie de Kawasaki (MK), décrite pour la première fois en 1961 par Tomisaku Kawasaki (Kawasaki, 1967), est la principale cause des pathologies cardiaques acquises chez les enfants des pays développés. Elle affecte majoritairement le nourrisson et le jeune enfant et sa gravité est liée aux complications cardio-vasculaires et aux graves anomalies...
Poster
Résumé : La maladie de Kawasaki (MK), décrite pour la première fois en 1961 par Tomisaku Kawasaki (Kawasaki, 1967), est la principale cause des pathologies cardiaques acquises chez les enfants des pays développés. Elle affecte majoritairement le nourrisson et le jeune enfant et sa gravité est liée aux complications cardio-vasculaires et aux graves...
Article
Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which enc...
Article
Full-text available
Atmospheric concentrations of the two main greenhouse gases (GHGs), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), are continuously measured since November 2012 at the Spanish rural station of Gredos (GIC3), within the climate network ClimaDat, together with atmospheric radon (²²²Rn) tracer and meteorological parameters. The atmospheric variability of CH4...
Article
Introduction: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute self-limited systemic vasculitis relatively common in childhood. The etiology of KD is still unknown, although clinical, laboratory and epidemiological features suggest an infectious origin or trigger. Differences on incidence between countries have been related to specific genetic factors, ethnicity...
Article
Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute self-limited systemic vasculitis relatively common in childhood. The etiology of KD is still unknown, although clinical, laboratory and epidemiological features suggest an infectious origin or trigger. Differences on incidence between countries have been related to specific genetic factors, ethnicity, country of bi...
Article
Full-text available
The subsurface heat buildup in the western tropical Pacific and the recharge phase in equatorial heat content are intrinsic elements of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, leading to changes in zonal wind stress, sea surface temperature and thermocline tilt that characterize the growing and mature phases of El Niño (EN) events. Here we use numerical simu...
Article
Full-text available
Background: El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction...
Article
Full-text available
A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons f...
Data
Deviation from climatological June rainfall for (A) five high flooding years, (B) five low flooding years, and (C) 2016. Units are (mm/d). (PDF)
Data
Precipitation in Dhaka for the months June and July. The dotted gray line corresponds to the average precipitation during Jun–Jul for the period 2007–2015. (PDF)
Data
Water level in Dhaka. (A) Tide level from Demra, a gage station located at 23.7232 N, 90.5018 E (in the eastern part of Dhaka). (B) Tide level from Mirpur, a second gage station located at 23.7833 N, 90.3385 E (in the western part of Dhaka). The dotted lines correspond to the flooding threshold for each station (5.75m for Demra and 5.94m for Mirpur...
Data
Comparison of simulated and predicted monthly cases with those reported for the whole city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. The normalized cases from the core and periphery of the city are shown in black. The median of 1000 simulations is shown in dark yellow, with the 10–90% confidence intervals (C.I.) in the shaded lighter color. The background shading rect...
Data
(A) The six periodic splines considered in the seasonality component of the transmission rate. The fourth and fifth splines were used to incorporate the effect of ENSO (thicker lines). (B) Functional form of ENSO, estimated with the parameters from the MLE (red) and its confidence interval (gray shaded area). (C) Transmission rate by month. The exp...
Data
Epidemiological parameter estimates and confidence intervals. (DOCX)
Data
Model equations, parameter estimation, and prediction evaluation. (DOCX)
Data
Comparison between the evolution of (A) seasonality and (B) long-term variability (periods > 2 years) for rainfall (blue) and high tide level (black) at Mirpur station in Dhaka. Rainfall amounts and high tide level measures were both accumulated and a linear trend was removed by least squares estimation. Individual oscillatory components were ortho...
Article
Full-text available
El Niño (EN) is a dominant feature of climate variability on inter-annual time scales driving changes in the climate throughout the globe, and having wide-spread natural and socio-economic consequences. In this sense, its forecast is an important task, and predictions are issued on a regular basis by a wide array of prediction schemes and climate c...