Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

• University of Stuttgart

Introduction In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become m...

Heat waves, drought, but also heavy rainfall events are already being felt in Germany today as a consequence of climate change. These phenomena will intensify in the future. For this reason, we expect water stress at least locally and seasonally in Germany, originally water-rich, due to potentially decreasing groundwater and surface water levels wi...

This chapter summarizes the interpretations, strengths, challenges and limitations of CIB analysis. For readers interested primarily in the method’s technical implementation, these reflections are of less importance and can be disregarded. However, these considerations help develop a more thorough understanding of CIB, which is key to determining w...

The basic function of CIB is to create a portfolio of scenarios that illustrate the range of possible future developments of a system. The scenarios taken together are referred to as the scenario portfolio of a cross-impact matrix. The workflow of this fundamental analysis is described in Chap. 3. For many use cases, this immediate result of the CI...

This chapter describes CIB application practice through selected examples. It includes systems and scenario analyses in the fields of politics, energy supply, public health, and climate protection, thus illustrating that CIB is not bound to specific subject areas but can be used in practice as a generic tool for qualitative system and scenario anal...

This chapter addresses the three fundamental data objects needed for CIB analysis: descriptors, descriptor variants, and cross-impact data. The basic aspects of their role were described in the method description in Chap. 3. These basic aspects will be deepened here by “dossiers” on the data objects. The dossiers discuss terminology, types, methodo...

Many CIB users would probably consider a portfolio of moderate size consisting of very different scenarios an ideal result of a CIB analysis. Such a portfolio would explore the future space of a system, and the number of scenarios would facilitate in-depth engagement with each identified scenario. Portfolios of this quality are not exceptional as a...

This chapter provides a step-by-step description of how to conduct a CIB analysis. The data objects used in CIB—descriptors, descriptor variants, and cross-impact ratings—are introduced and CIB’s data evaluation algorithm is explained. The goal of the chapter is to make the technical process of applying the method and the concept of consistent scen...

Scenarios have proven their worth for decades as an instrument for preparing for uncertain future developments. The chapter argues that scenarios often cannot be adequately created with creativity techniques or with computational models because the interrelationships between the formative factors are too complex for mental processing and, on the ot...

The most frequent field of application of CIB is the development of qualitative scenarios. This chapter therefore addresses the role scenarios play in preparing for the future in science, business, politics, and administration and the possibilities that CIB offers here. However, this is not a general textbook on scenarios. The many aspects about th...

Energy-system scenarios are widely used to relate the developments of the energy supply and the resulting carbon-emission pathways to political measures. To enable scenario analyses that adequately capture the variability of renewable-energy resources, a specialised type of power-sector model (PSM) has been developed since the beginning of this cen...

Study region Santa River basin, Peru. Study focus In the Andes of Peru, climate change and socio-economic development are expected to jeopardize future water availability. However, little is known about the interplay of multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors and related processes driving water resource changes. We developed an integrated mod...

A decarbonization of the European energy system implies great changes in the residential sector. Recently, the sector does not show the necessary dynamics. Apparently decarbonizing the sector requires a new momentum. Using PV-Battery systems as key technology for the residential sector for becoming more environmentally sustainable as an example, we...

Environmental governance often requires fulfilling different objectives at the same time, as environmental but also economic and social objectives of different actors and on different scales. That means, it needs to address (potential) goal conflicts. This challenge of how to achieve policy coherence is currently discussed regarding the United Nati...

Environmental governance often requires fulfilling different objectives at the same time, as e.g. economic, ecological, social objectives of different actors and on different scales. That means, it needs to address (potential) goal conflicts. This challenge of how to achieve policy coherence is currently discussed regarding interactions of the Unit...

Ein Instrument zum Umgang mit Komplexität in der Gesundheitsförderung und Prävention ist die Cross-Impact Bilanzanalyse. Eingesetzt werden kann sie beispielsweise, um aus systemischer Sicht erfolgversprechende Ansatzpunkte für Maßnahmen zu identifizieren. Sie eignet sich für Systeme, zu denen nur qualitative oder semi-quantitative Einsichten über d...

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid sc...

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario...

Background Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specifi...

Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transitions and that energy scenario construction should reflect this fact. This paper presents...

Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. I...

In water catchment areas affected by drought, water management requires dealing with multiple - potentially conflicting - objectives of different water users on different levels. Policies to achieve a specific objective can have fostering or hindering impacts on the effectiveness of policies to achieve other objectives. To inform integrated water m...

Pathways towards sustainable energy transformations are usually premised on model-based scenarios. These scenarios have to incorporate societal dynamics and their interaction with technological, economic, and ecological processes. This also requires the consideration and integration of the stakeholders’ positions into the scenarios. For this purpos...

Kriterienauswahl und Bewertungsverfahren sind Grundbestandteile von Entscheidungen. Dies gilt im Besonderen dort, wo komplexe Zusammenhänge vermittelt werden sollen, wie sie sich beispielsweise bei Planung und Umsetzung großtechnischer Bauten für erneuerbare Energien (EE) in Landschaften regelmäßig stellen. Auf der Basis einer Darstellung der Zusam...

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1968/publikationen/2017-01-30_dokumentation_04-2017_modellierung_simress.pdf

A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and d...

Many studies stress the needs of interdependence analysis under the special conditions of multidisciplinary systems that include social systems. This applies, in particular, to scenarios on future energy demand and supply. Using the example of the residential sector in Germany we provide information on factors and their possible outcomes taking mul...

Model-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. T...

Energy scenarios can considerably influence political decisions. It is therefore of major importance that the results are both comprehensible and verifiable. However, as calculation models are part of the implementing institutions’ operating capital, they are frequently not disclosed. Also, it is not always clear whether the results are influenced...

Energieszenarien haben großen Einfluss auf politische Entscheidungen. Umso wichtiger ist es, dass die Ergebnisse nachvollziehbar und überprüfbar sind. Viele beauftragte Institute legen ihre Rechenmodelle jedoch nicht offen, weil sie zu ihrem Betriebskapital gehören. Auch wird nicht immer deutlich, ob Vorgaben der Auftraggeber die Ergebnisse beeinfl...

An expert survey about the socio-technical context of the German Energy Transforamtion is described and selected results are reported. Major socio-technical drivers of the energy system and its evolution were identified, alternative futures for each driver were derived based on literature review and expert questioning. Using the framework of Cross-...

Die Cross-Impact-Analyse ist eine traditionelle, in den 1960er Jahren entwickelte Analysemethode, die ursprünglich im Bereich des Technology Foresight entstanden ist. Sie verwendet Experteneinschätzungen, um die Interdependenzen komplexer, interdisziplinärer Systeme zu diskutieren, zu formulieren und zu analysieren. Der Rückgriff auf Expertenschätz...

Energieszenarien können in der Diskussion zur Energiewende Orientierung bieten und Entscheidungen unterstützen. Fehlende Transparenz sowie die Vielzahl und Heterogenität der verfügbaren Szenariostudien erschweren es jedoch, sie angemessen zu interpretieren und zu bewerten. Die Analyse „Zur Interpretation von Energieszenarien“ bietet hierfür eine Hi...

Der Artikel gibt einen beispielhaften Überblick über Forschungsthemen, die derzeit im Fokus der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschungen zur Energiewende stehen. Zunächst wird der Frage nachgegangen, wie Nachhaltigkeit und insbesondere ihre soziale Komponente gemessen werden kann. Anschließend wird dargestellt, welche thematischen Schwerpunkte eine der...

Dass die geplante Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems als Transformation eines soziotechnischen Systems verstanden werden muss, ist heute eine breit akzeptierte Sicht in der Energieforschung und auch Grundverständnis der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Die praktische Umsetzung dieser Einsicht ist jedoch in vielen Bereichen der Energieforsch...

Indicator sets are widely used in sustainability research and policy debates to assess the effects of sustainability policies and to rate the desirability of technology options. For instance, the German government periodically issues ‘progress reports’ showing the recent development of sustainability indicators in the country [3], while MCDA approa...

Mit dem agentenbasierten Simulationsmodell AMIRIS lassen sich Auswirkungen verschiedener energiewirtschaftlicher Rahmenbedingungen auf die beteiligten Akteure bei der Marktintegration der erneuerbaren Energien (EE) untersuchen. Diese Analysen sollen helfen, effektive Fördersysteme zu gestalten, die der Entwicklung des Marktes dienen, aber gleichzei...

Mit dem agentenbasierten Simulationsmodell AMIRIS lassen sich Auswirkungen verschiedener energiewirtschaftlicher Rahmenbedingungen auf die beteiligten Akteure bei der Marktintegration der erneuerbaren Energien (EE) untersuchen. Diese Analysen sollen helfen, effektive Fördersysteme zu gestalten, die der Entwicklung des Marktes dienen, aber gleichzei...

Multiple variables determine the consumption of heat energy: technical, organisational, economic, legal, and social. Since these drivers also interact with each other in various ways, they may have an ambiguous effect when evaluating sustainability. This paper gives a comprehensive picture of how future heat consump tion might develop. We seek to u...

Multiple variables determine the consumption of heat energy: technical, organisational, economic, legal, and social. Since these drivers also interact with each other in various ways, they may have an ambiguous effect when evaluating sustainability. This paper gives a comprehensive picture of how future heat consump tion might develop. We seek to u...

Electricity generation from renewables in Germany has now reached a relevant magnitude for the energy sector. The further increase of electricity from renewable energy sources is driven by the Energy Concept enacted by the Federal Government in 2010 with the goal of transforming the energy system into a renewable based one by 2050. In order to achi...

The transformation of the electricity system upon condition of sustainable development and an accelerated nuclear phase-out is one of the crucial challenges currently facing the German economy. Due to effective policy support to date, electricity generated by renewable energies already accounts for a relevant share - 20.1% - of the German electrici...

Electricity generation from renewables in Germany has now reached an energy economically relevant magnitude. The further increase of electricity from renewable energy sources is driven by the Energy Concept enacted by the Federal Government in 2010 with the goal of transforming the energy system into a renewable based one by 2050. In order to achie...

Electricity generation from renewables in Germany has now reached a relevant magnitude for the energy sector. The further increase of electricity from renewable energy sources is driven by the Energy Concept enacted by the Federal Government in 2010 with the goal of transforming the energy system into a renewable based one by 2050. In order to achi...

The transformation of the electricity system upon condition of sustainable development and an accelerated nuclear phase-out is one of the crucial challenges currently facing the German economy. Due to effective policy support to date, electricity generated by renewable energies already accounts for a relevant share - 20.1% - of the German electrici...

Aim The issue of excess weight and obesity among our young people is currently under discussion as one of the most serious problems in public health. Extensive work has been done to analyse the problem, to indicate the drivers, and to create prevention programmes. Much research remains to be done in the field of modelling the complex impact network...

Dieser Beitrag beschreibt die Entwicklung eines agentenbasierten Simulationsmodells (AMIRIS) zur Untersuchung des Akteursverhaltens bei der Direktvermarktung von Windstrom unter verschiedenen Rahmenbedingungen. Agentenbasierte Modelle sind sehr gut geeignet, komplexe Systeme mit individuell handelnden Akteuren zu beschreiben und zu untersuchen. Wäh...

Damit der Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien den politischen Zielen entsprechend fortgeführt werden kann, müssen perspektivisch organisatorische und finanzielle Aspekte des Elektizitätssystems neu gestaltet werden. Um für die notwendige Systemanpassung eindeutige und verlässliche politische Vorgaben und Rahmenbedingungen gestalten zu können, ist es e...

Model-based environmental scenarios normally require multiple framework assumptions regarding future social, political and economic developments (external developments). In most cases these framework assumptions are highly uncertain. Furthermore, different external developments are not isolated from each other and their interdependences can be des...

Modellgestützte Energieszenarien sind Wenn-dann-Aussagen, die von zahlreichen expliziten wie impliziten Rahmenannahmen über politische, soziale, wirtschaftliche und technologische Entwicklungen ausgehen. Die Annahmen über den „gesellschaftlichen Kontext“ haben einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Ergebnisse von modellbasierten Energieszenarien. Der U...

Vorstellung eines agentenbasierten Modells zur Analyse von Rahmenbedingungen zur Marktintegration erneuerbarer Energien

CIB matrices are N x N hypermatrices, the elements of which are m x n matrices. They are used in Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, a concept applied in social sciences, management sciences, scenario analysis and technology foresight to identify plausible configurations of qualitatively defined impact networks. Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB) offer...

Often concepts of sustainability have been criticised for being theoretically ill-founded and lacking practical impact. This paper provides a new theoretical foundation of sustainable development, which is based on a coherent set of three normative and functional categories: systems integrity, justice and quality of life. From these three categorie...

Often concepts of sustainability have been criticised for being theoretically ill-founded and lacking practical impact. This paper provides a new theoretical foundation of sustainable development, which is based on a coherent set of three normative and functional categories: systems integrity, justice and quality of life. From these three categorie...

Cross-impact analysis is the name for a familiar method for multidisciplinary systems analysis in social sciences and management sciences, especially in technology foresight, technology assessment and scenario planning. A recently proposed form of cross-impact analysis, CIB, may be of interest for physicists, sociophysicists and complex network res...

Cross-Impact methods are standard tools of the scenario technique. They provide a number of structured processes for the deduction of plausible developments of the future in the form of rough scenarios and are based on expert judgments about systemic interactions. Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do not allow the use...

Der vorliegende Arbeitsbericht ist aus der wissenschaftlichen Begleitung des Waldprogramms Baden-Württemberg 2003 entstanden. Beim Waldprogramm handelt es sich um einen auf internationalen Konzepten basierenden, gesellschaftlichen Dialogprozess, in dem Vertreter unterschiedlicher Interessensgruppen, Verbände und Sektoren wichtige forstpolitische Ha...

Der kommunale Bereich gilt aufgrund seiner Akteursnähe als besonders wichtige Handlungsebene für die Umsetzung klimapolitischer Zielsetzungen. Kommunale Klimaschutzaktivitäten anzuregen und zu unterstützen, ist daher das erklärte Ziel verschiedener staatlicher Organe, Umweltverbände und wissenschaftlicher Einrichtungen. Auf der anderen Seite ist ve...

The question why and how innovation occurs is a subject of hot debate in policy, science, and economy. We describe a judgmental approach to innovation systems research that accounts for the complexity and interdisciplinary character of innovation processes and policy impacts. An interdisciplinary expert panel developed a qualitative model of an inn...

Die öffentliche Energieversorgung zählt zu den klassischen Infrastrukturkomponenten jeden entwickelten Landes. Sie weist in fast idealtypischer Weise die meisten Merkmale der im Einleitungsabschnitt gegebenen Infrastruktur-Definition auf: Die Energieversorgung zählt zu unseren vitalen und unaussetzbaren Lebens- und Wirtschaftsgrundlagen. Ihr öf- fe...