Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima

York University · Department of Mathematics and Statistics

A model is developed and used to study within-human malaria parasite dynamics. The model integrates actors involved in the development–progression of parasitemia, gametocytogenesis and mechanisms for immune response activation. Model analyses under immune suppression reveal different dynamical behaviours for different healthy red blood cell (HRBC)...

Sensitivity analysis has become increasingly useful in many fields of engineering and sciences. Researchers use sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the mathematical modelling of biological phenomena because of its value in identifying essential parameters for model's output. Moreover, it can help in the process of experimental analysis, model o...

It is often impossible to measure all states affecting spread of a disease. In cholera, asymptomatic and cholera pathogen densities are not practically measurable despite playing a big role in its transmission. They are referred to as inaccessible states of the model and can only be manipulated using the measurable states of the given model. Our in...

A within-human-host malaria parasite model, integrating key variables that influence parasite evolution-progression-advancement, under innate and adaptive immune responses, is analyzed. The implicit role of immunity on the steady state parasite loads and parasitemia reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), a threshold parameter measuring the para...

In this paper we develop a stochastic mathematical model of cholera disease dynamics by considering direct contact transmission pathway. The model considers four compartments, namely susceptible humans, infectious humans, treated humans, and recovered humans. Firstly, we develop a deterministic mathematical model of cholera. Since the deterministic...

Although rejected by the World Health Organization, the human and even veterinary formulation of ivermectin has widely been used for prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this work we leverage Twitter to understand the reasons for the drug use from ivermectin supporters, their source of information, their emotions, their gender demographics, and...

Measles is a highly contagious airborne disease that is endemic in many developing countries with low levels of vaccination coverage. In this paper, we propose a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for measles disease dynamics. We establish the global stability conditions for the disease-free and endemic equilibria using the Lyapunov fun...

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared...

The co-circulation of two respiratory infections with similar symptoms in a population can significantly overburden a healthcare system by slowing the testing and treatment. The persistent emergence of contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2, along with imperfect vaccines and their waning protections, have increased the likelihood of new COVID-19 outbrea...

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 43,000 cases reported as of 23 August 2022, involving 99 countries and territories across all the six World...

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted disease (STD). Starting from the end of April 2022, a 1 monkeypox outbreak is ongoing. Canada has become one of the most affected countries in the WHO Region of the Americas. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in monitoring, controll...

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use the Phillips curve to compare and analyze the macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), and high (Canada) income. We aim to (1) find macroeconomic changes in the...

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the family of Poxviruses. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 25,000 cases being reported as of August 3, 2022, involving 90 countries and territories across all the six...

Self-medication and the use of complementary medicine are common among people in the Global South for social, economic, and psychological reasons. Governments in these countries are generally faced with several challenges, including limited resources and poor infrastructure and patient health literacy. In this paper, we formulate and analyze a math...

Purpose Given limited supplies of vaccines, having information on the costs, and associated health and economic impacts, is important for the development of optimal vaccination strategies. This study explores the epidemiological and economic impact, in terms of the value of lost production, of four vaccination strategies – fixed-dose interval (M1),...

In this paper, we provide a brief survey of mathematical modelling of malaria and how it is used to understand the transmission and progression of the disease and design strategies for its control to support public health interventions and decision-making. We discuss some of the past and present contributions of mathematical modelling of malaria, i...

In this study, we proposed a fractional order model of hepatitis B virus transmission dynamics with two-age structure under vaccination. A qualitative analysis of the model is performed. Basic reproduction number of the model is determined. Local stability conditions of disease-free equilibrium point are proven by using fractional Ruth-Hurwitz cond...

Recently, promising clinical advances have been made in the development of antimalarial drugs that block the parasite transmission and also cures the disease and has prophylactic effects, called transmission-blocking drugs (TBDs). The aim of this paper is to develop and analyze a population level compartmental model of human-mosquito interactions t...

We develop and analyze a deterministic ordinary differential equation mathematical model for the within-mosquito dynamics of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. Our model takes into account the action and effect of blood resident human-antibodies, ingested by the mosquito during a blood meal from humans, in inhibiting gamete fertilization....

In this paper we have proposed and analysed an age structured mathematical model for studying the dynamics of Hepatitis B virus disease. The total population is subdivided in to eight compartments by considering different scenarios. First, we analyzed the qualitative behaviour of the model including positivity and boundedness of future solutions. M...

In this paper, we developed an SIBT R deterministic mathematical model for cholera dynamics by considering indirect contact transmission pathway of the disease. The model considers five compartment classes, namely; the susceptible individuals, the infectious individuals, treatment class, recovered individuals and the concentration of vibrio cholera...

Sensitivity analysis has become increasingly useful in many fields of engineering and sciences. Researchers use sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the mathematical modelling of biological phenomena because of its value in identifying essential parameters for model's output. Moreover, it can help in the process of experimental analysis, model o...

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is...

The sturm_Liouville Boundary value problems, after the Swiss mathematician Jacques Sturm (1803–1855) and the French mathematician Joseph Liouville (1809–1882), who studied these problems and the properties of their solutions, is the most important branch of applied mathematics which form the starting point for the study of mechanical and electrical...