Willie Soon

Willie Soon
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics · Division of Solar, Stellar, and Planetary Sciences

Independent Scientist

About

234
Publications
114,682
Reads
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5,676
Citations
Citations since 2016
65 Research Items
2502 Citations
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Introduction
Solar and Stellar Activity, Earth Climate, Magmatic and Tectonic Activity of the Earth, Orbital Dynamics of the Earth-Moon system, Space Physics, Environmental and Ecological Complexity, Air, Water and Soil Pollution Issues, Methods of Multi-variables Analysis https://cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/

Publications

Publications (234)
Article
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Plain Language Summary The variation in vertical atmospheric electric field (Ez ${E}_{z}$) reflects the change of global atmospheric circuit, which is controlled by the global thunderstorm activity (substantially for the middle and low latitudes) and magnetosphere–ionosphere perturbation (prone to the high latitudes). Based on the observations at M...
Data
The chromosphere is a highly dynamic outer plasma layer of the Sun. Its physical processes accounting for the variability are poorly understood. We reconstructed the solar chromospheric flare index (SFI) to study the solar chromospheric variability from 1937 to 2020. The new SFI database is a composite record of the Astronomical Institute Ondrˇejov...
Preprint
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Temperature is considered to be the key driving factor of the polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) variations, and the external source of temperature change is mainly from the solar radiations. In this paper, we use the observations of vertical column of ice water content (IWC) and mesopause temperature collected by the Solar Occultation For Ice Experimen...
Article
Full-text available
The chromosphere is a highly dynamic outer plasma layer of the Sun. Its physical processes accounting for the variability are poorly understood. We reconstructed the solar chromospheric flare index (SFI) to study the solar chromospheric variability from 1937 to 2020. The new SFI database is a composite record of the Astronomical Institute Ondřejov...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In recent years, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) have been launching very high quality and high resolution ozonesondes from eight sites across the globe: Antarctica; Greenland; American Samoa; Fiji; and several sites in USA (Alabama, California, Colorado and Hawai’i). These locations collectively cover the tropics, mid-latitudes and...
Article
In this study, we analyzed 149 geomagnetic storms of moderate and intensity (i.e., Dstmin≤-50nT) occurred during the solar cycle 24 from 2009 to 2019, and identified their interplanetary sources. Among them, there are 20 strong storms with -200nT≤Dstmin≤-100nT, and 2 super–strong storms with Dstmin≤-200nT. We have found that corotating interaction...
Article
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Strong earthquakes (magnitude ≥7) occur worldwide affecting different cities and countries while causing great human, ecological and economic losses. The ability to forecast strong earthquakes on the long-term basis is essential to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities of people living in highly active seismic areas. We have studied seismic activi...
Article
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Strong earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 7) occur worldwide affecting different cities and countries while causing great human, ecological and economic losses. The ability to forecast strong earthquakes on the long-term basis is essential to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities of people living in highly active seismic areas. We have studied seismic activ...
Article
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Citation: Velasco Herrera, V.M.V.; Martell-Dubois, R.; Soon, W.; Velasco Herrera, G.; Cerdeira-Estrada, S.; Zúñiga, E.; Rosique-de la Cruz, L. Predicting Atlantic Hurricanes Using Machine Learning. Atmosphere 2022, 13, 707. https://doi.
Preprint
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The most fantastic phenomenon of the mesospheric sodium layer is the so-called sporadic sodium layer (SSL or NaS), which are proposed to be closely related to wave fluctuations. Solitary wave is a particular solution of partial differential equation whose energy travels as a localized wave packet, and a soliton is a special solitary wave which has...
Article
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The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats - non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the "Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm" (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can...
Article
Full-text available
The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats—non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the “Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm” (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can pe...
Article
The boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., covering the USA, Canada and Russia) are the grandest carbon sinks of the world. A significant increase in wildfires could cause disequilibrium in the Northern boreal forest’s capacity as a carbon sink and cause significant impacts on wildlife and people worldwide. That is why the ability to fore...
Article
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Historical sunspot records and the construction of a comprehensive database are among the most sought after research activities in solar physics. Here, we revisit the issues and remaining questions on the reconstruction of the so-called group sunspot numbers (GSN) that was pioneered by D. Hoyt and colleagues. We use the modern tools of artificial i...
Article
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In recent decades, efforts to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns have predominantly relied on either semi-empirical datasets (i.e., reanalyses) or modeled output (i.e., global climate models, GCMs). While both approaches can provide important insights, there is a need for more empirical data to supplement these approaches. In this paper,...
Article
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In this research, we reveal the inter-connection between lightning strokes, reversal of the electric field, ionospheric disturbances, and a sodium layer (NaS), based on the joint observations by a temperature/wind (T/W, where the slash means “and”) lidar, an ionosonde, an atmospheric electric mill, a fluxgate magnetometer, and the World Wide Lightn...
Preprint
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During the first half of main-sequence lifetimes, the evolution of rotation and magnetic activity in solar-type stars appears to be strongly coupled. Recent observations suggest that rotation rates evolve much more slowly beyond middle-age, while stellar activity continues to decline. We aim to characterize this mid-life transition by combining arc...
Article
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Periodicities matching planetary cycles have been argued to be detected in key geophysical time series. In general, these periodicities were indirectly attributed to a planetary influence on solar activity. This supposes that planetary gravity affects the internal functioning of the Sun's dynamo, i.e., the {\it planetary hypothesis} (PH) of the s...
Article
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A synchronicity was found between the extreme values of insolation characteristics (taking into account the change in solar activity) and global climatic events of the late Holocene. The role of the radiation factor in changes in the global climate in the sub-Holocene history of the Earth has been determined. The ratios of solar radiation variation...
Article
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In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estim...
Preprint
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To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estima...
Article
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The retrodiction and prediction of solar activity are two closely-related problems in dynamo theory. We applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and analyses to the World Data Center’s newly constructed annual sunspot time series (1700-2019; Version 2.0). This provides a unique model that gives insights into the various patterns of the Sun’s magnet...
Article
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The solar impact on Earth’s climate is both a rich and open-ended topic with intense debates. In this study, we use the reconstructed data available to investigate periodicities of solar variability (i.e., variations of sunspot numbers) and temperature changes (10 sites spread all over the Earth) as well as the statistical inter-relations between t...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this research, we reveal the inter-connection between lightning strokes, reversal of the electric field, ionospheric disturbances, and a trigger of sporadic sodium layer event (NaS), based on the joint observations by three lidars, an ionosonde, an atmospheric electric mill, a fluxgate magnetometer, and World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWL...
Article
Full-text available
In this study, we use available reconstructed data to investigate periodicities of solar activity (i.e., sunspot number) and the Earth's climate change (temperatures of Lake Qinghai in China and Vostok in Antarctica, the GISP δ 18 O climate record of Greenland, and the stalagmite δ 18 O monsoon records of Dongge Cave in China) as well as their cros...
Article
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Concern for climate change is one of the drivers of new, transitional energy policies oriented towards economic growth and energy security, along with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and preservation of biodiversity. Since 2010, the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) has been publishing annual Global Landscape of Climate Finance reports. Accord...
Preprint
Full-text available
Most previous efforts to calibrate how rotation and magnetic activity depend on stellar age and mass have relied on observations of clusters, where isochrones from stellar evolution models are used to determine the properties of the ensemble. Asteroseismology employs similar models to measure the properties of an individual star by matching its nor...
Article
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In a first paper, we presented an in-depth discussion and a computational method (free of the calendar problem) to reckon any kind of latitudinal in- solation gradients, LIGs, throughout the Holocene and up to CE 3000. One of the main insights from this exact definition of LIGs is that, unlike what is argued in prior works, during the Holocene, a g...
Article
The marine bivalve, Tridacna spp. is an iconic invertebrate of the Indo-Pacific coral reef communities from Eocene to present. However, field observations found that the population of Tridacna spp. has declined in recent decades and some species are now endangered in the northern South China Sea (SCS) of western Pacific, which are speculated to be...
Article
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In paleoclimatology, the concept of latitudinal insolation gradients (LIGs), reckoned in various ways, has received increasing attention regarding glacial/inter- glacial climatic transitions and oscillations. In particular, the Holocene, which permits the reconstruction of past climatic proxies with an increasingly finer spatial and temporal resolu...
Article
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In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model...
Preprint
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One of the most robust features of the solar magnetic cycle is that the stronger cycles rise faster than the weaker ones. This is popularly known as the Waldmeier Effect, which is known for more than 80 years. This fundamental feature of the solar cycle has not only practical implications, e,g., in predicting the solar cycle, but also implications...
Article
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Our response to Li & Yang (2019)’s comments on our 2018 paper, “Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China”. We encourage readers of our original 2018 paper to read both Li & Yang's comments and our response for extra insights into some of the issues discussed there. We thank Li & Yang for initiating this additional discuss...
Article
The nature of how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its seasonality respond to warmer climate is critical knowledge to predict future climates under the expected anthropogenic warming scenario. In this study, a sub-fossil Tridacna gigas specimen was collected from the northern SCS and AMS¹⁴C dating suggested that the animal lived around A...
Article
Precipitation and temperature over Tucuman (26.8°S, 65.2°W), a province located in the Northwestern region of Argentina, is analyzed for the interval 1889–2018 in search of any plausible statistical associations with impacts and responses from solar variability. The aim of the study was to contribute data to the controversial issue of climate varia...
Article
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Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ("CMIP5") climate models over the duration of the satellite's records, i.e., 1967-2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate ana...
Technical Report
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Using Greenpeace's published reports, statements and web-pages amongst other things, we carried out a detailed assessment of their approach to campaigning. We then compared their campaign claims to the relevant empirical evidence and scientific literature. We found that Greenpeace is a very successful business. Their business model can be summari...
Article
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The present study reports the synchronization between the chromospheric and photometric variability at timescale of about 1.6-1.8 year as observed for the young, rapidly rotating solar analog HD 30495. In addition, HD 30495 may be presenting evidence of surface differential rotation at timescales of about 11-day and 21-day, as well as the sunspot-l...
Article
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Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earl...
Article
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Temperature variation has been proposed to play an important role in the formation of the sporadic sodium layers (SSLs or NaS) in subtropic area, based on the observed significant correlation between SSLs and high temperatures. The icy-dust particle, which could form in the extremely cold conditions and act as absorbers of sodium species, was propo...
Conference Paper
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The sea level changes in the Fiji Islands have been the focus at the UN conference on Our Oceans, Our Future on June 5-9, hosted by the governments of Sweden and Fiji, and will surely be in the focus again at the COP23 conference in Bonn, November 6-17, hosted by the Government of Fiji. This focus, however, was quite miss-directed, depending on mod...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The sea level changes in the Fiji Islands have been the focus at the UN conference on Our Oceans, Our Future on June 5-9, hosted by the governments of Sweden and Fiji, and will surely be in the focus again at the COP23 conference in Bonn, November 6-17, hosted by the Government of Fiji. This focus, however, was quite miss-directed, depending on mod...
Article
The so-called Ground Level Enhancement events are sporadic relativistic solar particles measured at ground level by a network of cosmic ray detectors worldwide. These sporadic events are typically assumed to occur by random chance. However, we find that by studying the last 56 ground level enhancement events reported from 1966 through 2014, these e...
Article
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A new seasonal and annual dataset describing Arctic sea ice extents for 1901–2015 was constructed by individually re-calibrating sea ice data sources from the three Arctic regions (North American, Nordic and Siberian) using the corresponding surface air temperature trends for the pre-satellite era (1901–1978), so that the strong relationship betwee...
Presentation
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We examine the decadal-scale variability in Ca II H & K emission of the Sun and a set of 26 solar analog stars within ~5% of the solar effective temperature. Using a quantitative metric for determining cycle quality, we find that cycles of the highest quality—like the Sun’s—occur in the stars with slower rotation and lower mean activity. Reexaminin...
Article
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Earth is the only planet known to harbor life, therefore we may speculate on how the nature of the Sun-Earth interaction is relevant to life on Earth, and how the behavior of other stars may influence the development of life on their planetary systems. We study the long-term variability of a sample of five solar analog stars using composite chromos...
Article
A new time-frequency method of analysis, based on the generalization of Einstein's cross-functions, is introduced. • The method is relevant for n > 2 time series. • We test our algorithm for the study of solar activity variations. We introduce the method of multiple cross-wavelet algorithm, hereafter also as Einstein's cross functions, for the time...
Article
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