William Wint

• B.A., M.A., D.Phil (Oxon) in Ecological Entomology
• Research Associate at University of Oxford

In the aftermath of 2 extreme weather events in 2022, Malawi experienced a severe cholera outbreak; 59,325 cases and 1,774 deaths were reported by March 31, 2024. We generated 49 Vibrio cholerae full genomes from isolates collected during December 2022–March 2023. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods confirmed that the Malawi outbreak strains o...

Introduction: Advanced outbreak analytics played a key role in governmental decision-making as the COVID-19 pandemic challenged health systems globally. This study assessed the evolution of European modelling practices, data usage, gaps, and interactions between modellers and decision-makers to inform future investments in epidemic-intelligence glo...

Background: The tick Ixodes ricinus is the most common tick species in the UK and a significant vector of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (causative agent of Lyme borreliosis) and Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus (TBEv) to humans and Anaplasma phagocutphilum, Babesia divergens and louping ill virus to animals.Methods: The Tick Surveillance Scheme (TSS) admi...

Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds, posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants, have surged since their first occurrence in 1959. The HPA...

Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds, posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants, have surged since their first occurrence in 1959. The HPA...

Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds, posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants, have surged since their first occurrence in 1959. The HPA...

Future epidemics and/or pandemics may likely arise from zoonotic viruses with bat- and rodent-borne pathogens being among the prime candidates. To improve preparedness and prevention strategies, we predicted the global distribution of bat- and rodent-borne viral infectious disease outbreaks using geospatial modeling. We developed species distributi...

Introduction Caused by the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a zoonotic disease that can cause severe neurological symptoms. Despite the availability of a vaccine, it remains a public health concern in Europe, with an increasing number of reported human cases and new hotspots of virus circulation, also in previo...

Sand flies are vectors of Leishmania spp. protozoa, phleboviruses and Bartonella bacilliformis . In this study we surveyed areas of central-western Europe, encompassing the northern limit of the known sand fly distribution, and investigated the relationship between their presence and environmental variables. In this area, very limited occurrence da...

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Euro...

Background The natural transmission cycle of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is enhanced by complex interactions between ticks and key hosts strongly connected to habitat characteristics. The diversity of wildlife host species and their relative abundance is known to affect transmission of tick-borne diseases. Therefore, in the current context...

Background Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been risin...

Simple summary: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging disease that is spreading across the globe. We originally released a predictive map in 2015, which we now update and improve by extending its coverage to Europe and by incorporating the limiting distributions of its main confirmed or potential tick vectors in Europe: Hyalomma ma...

West Nile virus (WNV) is an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe and although the causal relationship between climate change and its emergence on the continent has been reported, it has not been formally evaluated. Here, we examine whether WNV establishment in Europe can be attributed to climate change. For this purpose, we train and project...

Since early 2022, in the aftermath of two extreme weather events, Malawi experienced its largest ever cholera outbreak, with over 58,000 reported cases and 1,761 deaths as of May 2023. We generated 49 high-quality, near-complete Vibrio cholerae genomes in Malawi from isolates collected between December 2022 and March 2023 from all three regions of...

Background Arthropod vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and biting midges are of public and veterinary health significance because of the pathogens they can transmit. Understanding their distributions is a key means of assessing risk. VectorNet maps their distribution in the EU and surrounding areas.AimWe aim to describe the methodology u...

The sharing of animal disease data should be encouraged. The analysis of such data will broaden our knowledge of animal diseases and potentially provide insights into their management. However, the need to conform to data protection rules in the sharing of such data for analysis purposes often poses practical difficulties. This paper sets out the...

Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are one of the key interventions in the global fight against malaria. Since 2014, mass distribution campaigns of LLINs aim for universal access by all citizens of Burundi. In this context, we assess the impact of LLINs mass distribution campaigns on malaria incidence, focusing on the endemic highlan...

West Nile virus (WNV) is among the most recent emerging mosquito-borne pathogens in Europe where each year hundreds of human cases are recorded. We developed a relatively simple technique to model the WNV force of infection (FOI) in the human population to assess its dependence on environmental and human demographic factors. To this aim, we collate...

Zoonotic viruses that originate in wildlife harm global human health and economic prosperity. Understanding virus transmission at the human-animal-environment interface is a key component of pandemic risk-reduction. Zoonotic disease emergence is highest in biodiverse, tropical forests undergoing intensive land-use change. Phylodynamic analyses of v...

The global distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is the subject of considerable attention because of its pivotal role as a biological vector of several high profile disease pathogens including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. There is also a lot of interest in the projected future species' distribution. However...

Human and animal vector-borne diseases, particularly mosquito-borne diseases, are emerging or re-emerging worldwide. Six Aedes invasive mosquito (AIM) species were introduced to Europe since the 1970s: Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus, Ae. koreicus, Ae. atropalpus and Ae. triseriatus. Here, we report the results of AIMSurv2020, the firs...

Public and animal health authorities face many challenges in surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases. Those challenges are principally due to the multitude of interactions between vertebrate hosts, pathogens, and vectors in continuously changing environments. VectorNet, a joint project of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the...

We thank the authors of the commentary of our paper “Where might we find ecologically intact communities” (Grantham et al., 2022) for their interest in our paper (Plumptre et al., 2021) and their critique of some of the methods and conclusions. We here respond to their commentary, where many of their points have been well-made, with the aim of adva...

Background Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very lit...

This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "...

Conservation efforts should target the few remaining areas of the world that represent outstanding examples of ecological integrity and aim to restore ecological integrity to a much broader area of the world with intact habitat and minimal species loss while this is still possible. There have been many assessments of “intactness” in recent years bu...

The recent spread of invasive mosquito species, such as Aedes albopictus and the seasonal sporadic transmission of autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) in temperate areas, such as Europe and North America, highlight the importance of effective mosquito-control interventions to reduce not only nuisance, but als...

This is the third in a planned series of data papers presenting modelled vector distributions produced during the ECDC and EFSA funded VectorNet project. The data package presented here includes those Culicoides vectors species first modelled in 2015 as part of the VectorNet gap analysis work namely C. imicola, C. obsoletus, C. scoticus, C. dewulfi...

The Aedes invasive mosquitoes COST Action (AIM–COST) is a gender, age and geographically balanced network of members from critical stakeholder sectors in EU and neighbouring countries. The Action assesses and reviews current Aedes mosquito surveillance, control and analysis practices, and aims to 1) harmonise best practice guidelines, surveillance...

Background Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target. Methods We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Usi...

Since March 2020 we have generated biweekly Global and EU maps of the mobility data Google has published through a series of PDF files and now a CSV file presenting reports on national and subnational human mobility levels relative to a baseline data of late January 2020. The details and the PDF files can be found at https://www.google.com/covid19/...

Background: The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks agai...

EFSA has commissioned the VectorNet consortium to undertake a series of spatial distribution models for seven potential mosquito vectors of Rift Valley fever virus, namely Aedes albopictus, Aedes caspius, Aedes detritus, Aedes japonicus, Aedes vexans, Culex pipiens and Culex theileri. The modelling used the distribution data held within the VectorN...

Morocco has suffered several outbreaks of Culicoides-borne viruses in recent decades and most studies have focused on Culicoides imicola, considered for a long time as the only important vector. The change in bluetongue (BT) epidemiology in the Mediterranean Basin and Europe over the past two decades has highlighted the role of other Culicoides spe...

EFSA has requested the Vextornet consortium to undertake a series of spatial distribution models for seven potential mosquito vectors of Rift Valley fever virus, namely Aedes albopictus, Aedes caspius, Aedes detritus, Aedes japonicus, Aedes vexans, Culex pipiens and Culex theileri. The modelling used the distribution data held within the VectorNet...

Background: Knowledge of Ixodes ricinus tick distribution is critical for surveillance and risk management of transmissible tick-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis. However, as the ecology of I. ricinus is complex, and robust long-term geographically extensive distribution tick data are limited, mapping often relies on datasets collected for...

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the m...

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statis...

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statis...

This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the ‘Additional information’ section.

p>In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as ‘⁶Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK’. The correct affiliation is ‘⁹Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles,...

Knowing where vector species occur is crucial for the assessment of vector-borne disease risk. This was recognised by EFSA and ECDC, who, over the period 2014–2018, funded VectorNet, a European network for gathering and sharing data on the geographic distribution of arthropod vectors of disease agents affecting humans and livestock. The VectorNet d...

Global data sets on the geographic distribution of livestock are essential for diverse applications in agricultural socio-economics, food security, environmental impact assessment and epidemiology. We present a new version of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW 3) database, reflecting the most recently compiled and harmonized subnational livest...

Global data sets on the geographic distribution of livestock are essential for diverse applications in agricultural socio-economics, food security, environmental impact assessment and epidemiology. We present a new version of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW 3) database, reflecting the most recently compiled and harmonized subnational livest...

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show t...

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show t...

Animal movements are typically driven by areas of supply and demand for animal products and by the seasonality of production and demand. As animals can potentially spread infectious diseases, disease prevention can benefit from a better understanding of the factors influencing movements patterns in space and time. In Mauritania, an important cultur...

Small ruminant, cattle and camel trading networks and related centrality measures for Mauritania in 2014. Node size show the importance of the measured centrality values. in and out-weight measures were scaled on the total volume of traded livestock; eigenvector centrality (centrality measure) were scored from 0 to 1, betweenness was considered for...

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic that began in Dec 2016 in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes sp. vectors highlights the urgent need to monitor the risk of re-establishment of domestic YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches to characteriz...

Increasing the production of meat and milk within sub-Saharan Africa should provide significant food security benefits. However, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represent a challenge, as cattle production in the region typically has high emissions intensity (EI), i.e., high rates of GHG emissions per unit of output. The high EI is caused by the rela...

Disease maps are important tools in the management of disease. By communicating risk, disease maps can help raise awareness of disease and encourage farmers and veterinarians to employ best practice to eliminate the spread of disease. However, despite the importance of disease maps in communicating risk and the existence of various online disease m...

The parasite Theileria parva is carried by hard body ticks (Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, R.zambeziensis) and causes East Coast Fever in cattle and Corridor Disease in Buffalo throughout much of East and Southern Africa. If cattle come into contact with Buffalo derived strains of the parasite, they can also catch Corridor disease. Existing Infectio...

For livestock keepers in Africa, the presence of endemic chronic diseases is a constant drain on their animals’ productivity and on their financial resources. One of these diseases, tsetse-transmitted trypanosomosis, is widely considered as a major constraint on livestock production and rural development in sub-Saharan Africa. The book uses herd mo...

Background Ixodes ricinus is a three-host tick, a principal vector of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) and one of the main vectors of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus. Iceland is located in the North Atlantic Ocean with subpolar oceanic climate. During the past 3–4 decades, average temperature has increased, supporting more favourable conditions for...

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predict...

Location coordinates for Nepenthes rafflesiana in Borneo. (CSV)

Location coordinates for Nepenthes tentaculata in Borneo. (CSV)

Background Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. Methods We jointly analysed datasets describing the epid...

Supplementary webappendix

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of v...

Culicoides imicola and C. obsoletus/C. scoticus are considered important vectors in Europe for the transmission of bluetongue and Schmallenberg virus. The seasonality and abundance of C. imicola and C. obsoletus/C. scoticus was assessed in Europe based on literature, expert input and modelling techniques detecting the onset and end of the vector...

Significance Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, mosquito-borne viral infection of ruminants, transmissible to people, and linked to rainfall. By investigating a wider range of possible drivers this study confirms the assumption that RVF occurrence can also be dependent on nonenvironmental drivers. In Madagascar, human and ruminant infections w...

An overview of the ECDC EFSA funded VECTORNET project. The project focusses on mapping arthropod vector of human and animal diseases in Europe. The Network includes more than 600 experts who source and validate distribution data for midge, sandfly, mosquito and ticks vectors. Extensive field data collection and spatial modelling fill gaps in the kn...

This is the second of a number of planned data papers presenting modelled vector distributions produced originally during the ECDC funded VBORNET project. This work continues under the VectorNet project now jointly funded by ECDC and EFSA. Further data papers will be published after sampling seasons when more field data will become available allowi...

This is the r st of a number of planned data papers presenting modelled vector distributions, the models in this paper were produced during the ECDC funded VBORNET project. This work continues under the VectorNet project now jointly funded by ECDC and EFSA. This data paper contains the sand y model outputs produced as part of the VBORNET project. F...

While much is known about the risk factors for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in herds located in high incidence areas, the drivers of bTB spread in areas of emerging endemicity are less well established. Epidemiological analysis and intensive social research identified natural and social risk factors that may prevent or encourage the spread of disease....

Background This paper aims to illustrate the steps needed to produce reliable correlative modelling for arthropod vectors, when process-driven models are unavailable. We use ticks as examples because of the (re)emerging interest in the pathogens they transmit. We argue that many scientific publications on the topic focus on: (i) the use of explana...

Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, which has been extensively us...

Gap-filling evaluation. (DOC)

Wild boar is a host of a number of arthropod-vectored diseases and its numbers are on the rise in mainland Europe. The species potentially impacts ecosystems, humans and farming practices and so its distribution is of interest to policy makers in a number of fields beyond that of the primarily epidemiological goal of this study. Three statistical...

Quantitatively mapping the spatial distributions of infectious diseases is key to both investigating their epidemiology and identifying populations at risk of infection. Important advances in data quality and methodologies have allowed for better investigation of disease risk and its association with environmental factors. However, incorporating dy...

Defra's recent strategy to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) establishes three spatial zones: high-risk areas (HRAs) and low-risk areas, and an area referred to as 'the edge', which marks the areas where infection is spreading outwards from the HRA. Little is known about farmers in the edge area, their attitudes towards bTB and their farming prac...

The rapid transformation of the livestock sector in recent decades brought concerns on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, disruptions to nitrogen and phosphorous cycles and on land use change, particularly deforestation for production of feed crops. Animal and human health are increasingly interlinked through emerging infectious diseases, zoon...

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through c...