William R L Anderegg

• PhD
• Professor (Assistant) at University of Utah

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, acting as substantial carbon sinks and offering pathways for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting and bioeconomic opportunities collectively referred to as Natural Climate Solutions (NCS). Over 100 forest carbon model...

Rates of tree mortality are increasing globally, with implications for forests and climate. Yet, how and why these trends vary globally remain unknown. Developing a comprehensive assessment of global tree mortality will require systematically integrating data from ground-based long-term forest monitoring with large-scale remote sensing. We surveyed...

Rates of tree mortality are increasing globally, with implications for forests and climate. Yet, how and why these trends vary globally remain unknown. Developing a comprehensive assessment of global tree mortality will require systematically integrating data from ground-based long-term forest monitoring with large-scale remote sensing. We surveyed...

The partitioning of photosynthate among various forest carbon pools is a key process regulating long‐term carbon sequestration, with allocation to aboveground woody biomass carbon (AGBC) in particular playing an outsized role in the global carbon cycle due to its slow residence time. However, directly estimating the fraction of gross primary produc...

Terrestrial vegetation is a key component of the Earth system, regulating the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between land and atmosphere. Vegetation affects soil moisture dynamics by absorbing and transpiring soil water, thus modulating land–atmosphere interactions. Moreover, changes in vegetation structure (e.g., leaf area index) and physio...

Terrestrial ecosystems are major carbon (C) pools, sequestering ~20% of anthropogenic C emissions. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate-sensitive disturbances (for example, drought and wildfire) threaten long-term C uptake. Although direct effects of disturbances are well-documented, indirect effects remain unknown. Here we quanti...

Cyclonic storms, or hurricanes, are expected to intensify as ocean heat energy rises due to climate change. Ecological theory suggests that tropical forest resistance to hurricanes should increase with forest age and wood density. However, most data on hurricane effects on tropical forests come from a limited number of well‐studied long‐term monito...

Water potential’ is the biophysically relevant measure of water status in vegetation relating to stomatal, canopy and hydraulic conductance, as well as mortality thresholds; yet, this cannot be directly related to measured and modelled fluxes of water at plot‐ to landscape‐scale without understanding its relationship with ‘water content’. The capac...

In this review, we discuss current research on forest carbon risk from natural disturbance under climate change for the United States, with emphasis on advancements in analytical mapping and modeling tools that have potential to drive research for managing future long-term stability of forest carbon. As a natural mechanism for carbon storage, fores...

Given the pressing challenges posed by climate change, it is crucial to develop a deeper understanding of the impacts of escalating drought and heat stress on terrestrial ecosystems and the vital services they offer. Soil and plant water potential play a pivotal role in governing the dynamics of water within ecosystems and exert direct control over...

Plant functional traits hold the potential to greatly improve the understanding and prediction of climate impacts on ecosystems and carbon cycle feedback to climate change. Traits are commonly used to place species along a global conservative-acquisitive trade-off, yet how and if functional traits and conservative-acquisitive trade-offs scale up to...

Forests are a major terrestrial carbon sink, but the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-driven disturbances such as droughts, fires and biotic agent outbreaks is threatening carbon uptake and sequestration. Determining how climate-driven disturbances may alter the capacity of forest carbon sinks in a changing climate is crucial. Here we...

Balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae; BWA) is an invasive forest pest in the US whose infestation in fir forests can cause widespread tree mortality. A growing body of evidence suggests that the severity of BWA’s effects is linked to climatic conditions, where sites featuring seasonally warmer temperatures tend to demonstrate higher degrees of ins...

Some plants exhibit dynamic hydraulic regulation, in which the strictness of hydraulic regulation (i.e. iso/anisohydry) changes in response to environmental conditions. However, the environmental controls over iso/anisohydry and the implications of flexible hydraulic regulation for plant productivity remain unknown. In Juniperus osteosperma, a drou...

Nature-based climate solutions in Earth’s forests could strengthen the land carbon sink and contribute to climate mitigation, but must adequately account for climate risks to the durability of carbon storage. Forest carbon offset protocols use a ‘buffer pool’ to insure against disturbance risks that may compromise durability. However, current buffe...

Tree growth is a key uncertainty in projections of forest productivity and the global carbon cycle. While global vegetation models commonly represent tree growth as a carbon assimilation (source)-driven process, accumulating evidence points toward widespread non-photosynthetic (sink) limitations. Notably, growth biophysical potential, defined as th...

Drylands exert a strong influence over global interannual variability in carbon and water cycling due to their substantial heterogeneity over space and time. This variability in ecosystem fluxes presents challenges for understanding their primary drivers. Here we quantify the sensitivity of dryland gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration...

Habitat conversion and climate change are fundamental drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide but are often analyzed in isolation. We used a continental-scale, decades-long database of more than 150,000 bird nesting attempts to explore how extreme heat affects avian reproduction in forests, grasslands, and agricultural and developed areas across the...

Stable isotope ratios of H (δ2H), O (δ18O), and C (δ13C) are linked to key biogeochemical processes of the water and carbon cycles; however, the degree to which isotope-associated processes are reflected in macroscale ecosystem flux observations remains unquantified. Here through formal information assessment, new measurements of δ13C of net ecosys...

Local-scale human–environment relationships are fundamental to energy sovereignty, and in many contexts, Indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) is integral to such relationships. For example, Tribal leaders in southwestern USA identify firewood harvested from local woodlands as vital. For Diné people, firewood is central to cultural and physical sur...

Please find the publication here: https://gspp.berkeley.edu/research-and-impact/centers/cepp/projects/berkeley-carbon-trading-project/redd

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and regional scales and from multiple disturbances is ur...

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of st...

Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitati...

Intraspecific variation in functional traits may mediate tree species' drought resistance, yet whether trait variation is due to genotype (G), environment (E), or G×E interactions remains unknown. Understanding the drivers of intraspecific trait variation and whether variation mediates drought response can improve predictions of species' response t...

Forests have considerable potential to mitigate anthropogenic climate change through carbon sequestration, as well as provide society with substantial co-benefits. However, climate change risks may fundamentally compromise the permanence of forest carbon storage. Here, we conduct a multi-method synthesis of contiguous US forest aboveground carbon s...

Forest dynamics in arid and semiarid regions are sensitive to water availability, which is becoming increasingly scarce as global climate changes. The timing and magnitude of precipitation in the semiarid southwestern U.S. (“Southwest”) has changed since the 21 st century began. The region is projected to become hotter and drier as the century proc...

Water potential is the principal driving force for the movement of water through soils and plants, and directly influences plant physiological responses. The relationships between water potential and water content in plants and soil have long been of interest, and there is increasing focus on understanding how these fundamental measures of water ar...

Dryland ecosystems occupy a vast swath of the terrestrial land surface and exert a sizeable impact on the cycling of carbon and water globally. These biomes are characterized by tightly coupled carbon and water cycles that respond rapidly to transient pulses in water availability. However, there exist many mechanistic uncertainties regarding the en...

Nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) hold promise, but must be based on the best available science to be successful. We outline key ingredients of open data and science crucial for robust and scalable nature-based climate solutions efforts, as an urgent call to action for academic researchers, nongovernmental organizations, government agencies, an...

Forest productivity projections remain highly uncertain, notably because underpinning physiological controls are delicate to disentangle. Transient perturbation of global climate by large volcanic eruptions provides a unique opportunity to retrospectively isolate underlying processes. Here, we use a multi‐proxy dataset of tree‐ring records distribu...

Mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in ecosystem models are rapidly advancing, requiring advancements in model evaluation approaches. Here we quantify multiple aspects of model functional performance to evaluate improved process representations in ecosystem models. We compare semi‐empirical stomatal models with hydraulic constra...

Trees are long‐lived organisms, exhibiting temporally complex growth arising from strong climatic “memory.” But conditions are becoming increasingly arid in the western USA. Using a century‐long tree‐ring network, we find altered climate memory across the entire range of a widespread western US conifer: growth is supported by precipitation falling...

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthes...

Nature‐based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap‐and‐trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the Cali...

The ability of forests to withstand, and recover from, acute drought stress is a critical uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, but it is unclear how drought responses scale from individual trees to whole forests. Here, we assembled a dataset of tree-ring chronologies co-located within the footprin...

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) provides open-access measurements of stable isotope ratios in atmospheric water vapor (δ ² H, δ ¹⁸ O) and carbon dioxide (δ ¹³ C) at different tower heights, as well as aggregated biweekly precipitation samples (δ ² H, δ ¹⁸ O) across the United States. These measurements were used to create the NEO...

Uncertainties surrounding tree carbon allocation to growth are a major limitation to projections of forest carbon sequestration and response to climate change. The prevalence and extent to which carbon assimilation (source) or cambial activity (sink) mediate wood production are fundamentally important and remain elusive. We quantified source-sink r...

Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies leverage forest preservation and expansion, but rely on forests storing carbon for decades to centuries. Yet climate‐driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long‐term stability of forest carbon. We quantify the climate drivers that influence w...

Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs), or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitat...

Nature‐based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, N...

Drought-associated woody-plant mortality has been increasing in most regions with multi-decadal records and is projected to increase in the future, impacting terrestrial climate forcing, biodiversity and resource availability. The mechanisms underlying such mortality, however, are debated, owing to complex interactions between the drivers and the p...

Isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose are a prominent tool to reconstruct paleoclimate and plant responses to environmental variation. Current models for cellulose isotope ratios assume a transfer of the environmental signals recorded in bulk leaf water to carbohydrates and ultimately into stem cellulose. However, the isotopic signal of carbohydrat...

Tree species display a wide variety of water use strategies, growth rates and capacity to tolerate drought. However, if we want to forecast species capacity to cope with increasing aridity and drought, we need to identify which measurable traits confer resilience to drought across species. Here, we use a global tree ring network (65 species; 1931 s...

Significance Photosynthesis involves a tradeoff between the uptake of carbon and the loss of water. Intrinsic water-use efficiency is an indicator of this tradeoff that is pivotal for understanding plant responses to climate change. Global increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration have increased intrinsic water-use efficiency, but this relationsh...

Classifying the diverse ways that plants respond to hydrologic stress into generalizable ‘water‐use strategies’ has long been an eco‐physiological research goal. While many schemes for describing water‐use strategies have proven to be quite useful, they are also associated with uncertainties regarding their theoretical basis and their connection to...

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactu...

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time...

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) data enable accurate modeling and mapping of aboveground biomass (AGB), but the limited spatial and temporal extents of ALS data collection limit the capacity for broad-scale carbon accounting. Conversely, while space-based remote sensing instruments provide increased spatial and temporal coverage, it can be difficult...

Trees are long-lived organisms that integrate climate conditions across years or decades to produce secondary growth. This integration process is sometimes referred to as ‘climatic memory.’ While widely perceived, the physiological processes underlying this temporal integration, such as the storage and remobilization of non-structural carbohydrates...

Key Points Forests may help climate mitigation if they can store carbon for centuries Climate‐driven disturbances may greatly undermine these aims in California Multi‐disciplinary and open research is urgently needed to inform policy

Over the 21st century, human-caused climate change is projected to vastly increase the occurrence of severe heat, which has deleterious health, economic, and societal impacts. Over the same period, global human population could increase from 7.8 to 10.9 billion, placing more people in harm's way. Here, we combine projections of sustained heat from...

Tree water use is central to plant function and ecosystem fluxes. However, it is still unknown how organ‐level water‐relations traits are coordinated to determine whole‐tree water‐use strategies in response to drought, and whether this coordination depends on climate. Here we used a global sap flow database (SAPFLUXNET) to study the response of wat...

Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on forest preservation and expansion, but the effectiveness of these approaches hinges on forests sequestering carbon for centuries despite anthropogenic climate change. Yet climate-driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long-term stabil...

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing “additional” climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, w...

Trees partition biomass in response to resource limitation and physiological activity. It is presumed that these strategies evolved to optimize some measure of fitness. If the optimization criterion can be specified, then allometry can be modeled from first principles without prescribed parameterization. We present the Tree Hydraulics and Optimal R...

Carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems and their response to environmental change are a major source of uncertainty in the modern carbon cycle. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) presents the opportunity to merge eddy covariance (EC)‐derived fluxes with CO2 isotope ratio measurements to gain insights into carbon cycle processes. Co...

Nocturnal transpiration is widely observed across species and biomes, and may significantly impact global water, carbon, and energy budgets. However, it remains elusive why plants lose water at night and how to model it at large scales. We hypothesized that plants optimize nighttime leaf diffusive conductance (gwn) to balance potential daytime phot...

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating ‘ecological surprise’. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors a...

Significance Human-caused climate change could impact respiratory health, including asthma and allergies, through temperature-driven increases in airborne pollen, but the long-term continental pollen trends and role of climate change in pollen patterns are not well-understood. We measure pollen trends across North America from 1990 to 2018 and find...

Species interactions mediate tree responses to water limitation because competition and/or facilitation alter plant physiology and growth. However, because it is difficult to isolate the effects of plant–plant interactions and water limitation from other environmental factors, the mechanisms underlying tree physiology and growth in coexisting plant...

This file is the SI to "Coupled whole-tree optimality and xylem hydraulics explain dynamic biomass partitioning" (Potkay et al., 2021; New Phytologist), and contains its mathematical derivations and descriptions of the model.

For nearly two decades, the American Southwest has been in the grips of a long-term ‘megadrought’, punctuated by a number of short and severe ‘global change type droughts’ (i.e., negative precipitation anomalies co-occurring with high temperature). These events have caused widespread mortality of the drought-sensitive piñon pine (Pinus edulis) whil...

Climate change-driven increases in drought frequency and severity could compromise forest ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink1–3. While the impacts of single droughts on forests have been widely studied4–6, understanding whether forests acclimate to or become more vulnerable to sequential droughts remains largely unknown and is crucial for p...

Global warming is expected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of droughts in the western United States, which may lead to increased tree mortality. A prevailing proximal mechanism of drought‐induced tree mortality is hydraulic damage, but predicting tree mortality from hydraulic theory and climate data still remains a major scientific challen...

Prediction of ecosystem responses to a changing climate is challenging at the landscape to regional scale, in part because topography creates various habitats and influences ecosystem productivity in complex ways. However, the effects of topography on ecosystem function remain poorly characterized and quantified. To address this knowledge gap, we d...

In trees, large uncertainties remain in how non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) respond to variation in water availability in natural, intact ecosystems. Variation in NSC pools reflects temporal fluctuations in supply and demand, as well as physiological coordination across tree organs in ways that differ across species and NSC fractions (e.g., sol...

Significance Forests are experiencing growing risks of drought-induced mortality in a warming world. Yet, ecosystem dynamics following drought mortality remain unknown, representing a major limitation to our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change. We provide an emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories based on...

The Craig–Gordon type (C–G) leaf water isotope enrichment models assume a homogeneous distribution of enriched water across the leaf surface, despite observations that Δ¹⁸O can become increasingly enriched from leaf base to tip. Datasets of this ‘progressive isotope enrichment’ are limited, precluding a comprehensive understanding of (a) the magnit...

The circadian clock is a molecular timer of metabolism that affects the diurnal pattern of stomatal conductance (gs), amongst other processes, in a broad array of plant species. The function of circadian gs regulation remains unknown and here, we test whether circadian regulation helps to optimize diurnal variations in stomatal conductance. We subj...

Risks to mitigation potential of forests Much recent attention has focused on the potential of trees and forests to mitigate ongoing climate change by acting as sinks for carbon. Anderegg et al. review the growing evidence that forests' climate mitigation potential is increasingly at risk from a range of adversities that limit forest growth and hea...

Optimal stomatal control models have shown great potential in predicting stomatal behavior and improving carbon cycle modeling. Basic stomatal optimality theory posits that stomatal regulation maximizes the carbon gain relative to a penalty of stomatal opening. All models take a similar approach to calculate instantaneous carbon gain from stomatal...

A better understanding of plant stomatal strategies holds strong promise for improving predictions of vegetation responses to drought because stomata are the primary mechanism through which plants mitigate water stress. It has been assumed that plants regulate stomata to maintain a constant marginal water use efficiency and forego carbon gain when...

The ‘hot spot-hot moment’ concept is a long-standing and popular framework often invoked to explain spatially or temporally variable rates of biogeochemical cycling. However, this concept has been rarely extended to ecosystem fluxes such as gross primary productivity (GPP), in part due to the lack of a quantitative definition of hot moments that ca...

This article is a Commentary on Eller et al., 226: 1622–1637, and Sabot et al., 226: 1638–1655.

Woodland ecosystems, dominant on nearly 4% of all terrestrial land globally, are faced with a variety of threats, including increasingly prolonged and severe droughts, invasive insect outbreaks, and the rapid spread of pathogens. While many remote sensing methods have been developed for the detection and quantification of mortality in forested envi...

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind existing patterns of vegetation hydraulic traits and community trait diversity is critical for advancing predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle because hydraulic traits affect both ecosystem and Earth system responses to changing water availability. Here, we leverage an extensive trait database and a...

Multi‐year lags in tree drought recovery, termed ‘drought legacy effects’, are important for understanding the impacts of drought on forest ecosystems, including carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate change. Despite the ubiquity of lags in drought recovery, large uncertainties remain regarding the mechanistic basis of legacy effects and their impor...

The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO 2 (∆C a = future minus historic CO 2 ) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (∆T). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model...