Weston Anderson

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Assistant Research Professor at University of Maryland, College Park

Large-scale modes of climate variability can force widespread crop yield anomalies and are therefore often presented as a risk to food security. We quantify how modes of climate variability contribute to crop production variance. We find that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV)...

Understanding what causes weather-related stresses that lead to crop failures is a critical steptoward stabilizing global food production. While there are many sources of weather-related stresses, the30–60 days of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of subseasonal climate variabilityin the tropics, making it a potential—but as of...

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to...

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Multi-year La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST pa...

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate wher...

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces severe agricultural data scarcity amidst high food insecurity and a large agricultural yield gap, making crop production data crucial for understanding and enhancing food systems. To address this gap, HarvestStat Africa presents the largest compilation of open-access subnational crop statistics and time-series across...

Extreme climate events in breadbasket regions have become more frequent due to climate change, exposing crops to a greater frequency and intensity of abiotic stress. But by using observed crop yield statistics and an ensemble of statistical models, we demonstrate that over the last six decades the frequency of crop yield shocks in breadbasket regio...

Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global pres...

Researchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative climate change impacts on food production harm livelihoods, which triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migratio...

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area...

This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision‐making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid...

Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at...

This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, in 2022 23 million east Africans faced starvation, requiring >$2 billion in aid...

Extreme heat, drought and moisture excess are increasingly co-occurring within a single growing season, impacting crop yields in global breadbasket regions. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of compound heat and moisture extremes, their impacts on global crop yields and implications for adaptation. Heat and moisture extremes and thei...

Variety adaptation to future climate for wheat is important but lacks comprehensive understanding. Here, we evaluate genetic advancement under current and future climate using a dataset of wheat breeding nurseries in North America during 1960-2018. Results show that yields declined by 3.6% per 1 °C warming for advanced winter wheat breeding lines,...

Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat prices will exhibit steeper spikes at 2°C glo...

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and polic...

Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at...

Humans’ essential ability to combat heat stress through sweat-based evaporative cooling is modulated by ambient air temperature and humidity, making humid heat a critical factor for human health. In this study, we relate the occurrence of extreme humid heat in two focus regions to two related modes of intraseasonal climate variability: the Madden–J...

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Here we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound dr...

Simultaneous yield shocks in multiple breadbaskets pose a potential threat to global food security, yet the historical risks and causes of such shocks are poorly understood. Here, we compile a dataset of subnational maize and wheat yield anomalies in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to better characterize the past, present, and future risk of multi...

Conflict, drought and locusts are leading concerns for African food security but the relative importance and spatiotemporal scale of crises resulting from each hazard is poorly characterized. Here we use continuous, subnational data to demonstrate that the rise of food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa that began in 2014 is attributable to an in...

Extreme heat and drought often reduce the yields of important food crops around the world, putting stress on regional and global food security. The probability of concurrently hot and dry conditions, which can have compounding impacts on crops, has already increased in many regions of the globe. The evolution of these trends in coming decades could...

Spatially compound extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected social-economic systems. We use an Earth system model large ensemble to examine the future risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions with highly seasonal climate. Relative to the late-20th century, the probability, mean extent and severi...

Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regi...

Universities and research centres around the world have made significant progress towards establishing collaborative, interdisciplinary initiatives in sustainability science. However, more needs to be done to support the career development of junior sustainability scholars whose work is often team based and outreach oriented.

Conflict, drought, and locusts have been leading concerns for African food security in recent years, but the relative importance and spatiotemporal scales of crises resulting from each hazard is poorly characterized. Here we use continuous, subnational data from Sub-Saharan Africa to characterize how food crises differ according to livelihood strat...

Many countries in the Global South depend increasingly on imports to provide food for their rising populations. Trade is a key mechanism to address distributional issues, especially in countries with limited biophysical resources. In theory, by pooling the risk of crop failures via global trade, trade should stabilize food supplies. In practice, ho...

El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections have been recognized as possible negative influences on crop yields in the US during the summer growing season, especially in a developing La Niña summer. This study examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnections and remote impacts on the US during a multi-year La Niña life-c...

In the original version of the article contained errors in the fig 3 and 4 and captions of Figures 3 and 4 with respect to the panels in the top row.

The climate of South America (SA) has long held an intimate connection with El Niño, historically describing anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures off the coastline of Peru. Indeed, throughout SA, precipitation and temperature exhibit a substantial, yet regionally diverse, relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example,...

While many Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections are well documented, the significance of these teleconnections to agriculture is not well understood. Here we analyze how the MJO affects the climate during crop flowering seasons, when crops are particularly vulnerable to abiotic stress. Because the MJO is located in the tropics of the sum...

This paper assesses the potential role of investments in irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa in improving food security and self-sufficiency in the region. Focusing on the region’s drylands, the study identifies a potential for expanded irrigated area of 6–14 million hectares (ha), depending on technology costs and other factors. Linkage of these resu...

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to...

In this analysis we show how globally coherent teleconnections from life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to correlated crop production anomalies in North and South America. We estimate the magnitude of ENSO-induced Pan-American production anomalies and discuss how increasing crop harvesting frequency may affect Pan-American p...

Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global...

Identification of factors catalyzing sustainable land management (SLM) could provide insights for national policies and international efforts to address land degradation. Building on previous studies, and using novel datasets, this chapter identifies major drivers of land degradation at global and regional levels. The findings of this study confirm...

This study was conducted with the objective of determining the returns to sustainable land management (SLM) at the national level in Bhutan. The study first uses satellite data on land change (Landsat) to examine land use change in 1990–2010 and its impact on sediment loading in hydroelectric power plants. The study then uses the Soil and Water Ass...

The characteristic evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) on timescales of months to years means that risks to agriculture have structure between seasons and years. The potential for consecutive ENSO ‐induced yield anomalies is of particular interest in major food producing areas, where modest changes in yield have significant effects o...

Understanding the impacts of land degradation is, at least in part, limited by our ability to accurately characterize those impacts in space and time. While in recent decades remote sensing has offered unprecedented coverage of the land surface, the evaluation of remote sensing products is often limited or lacking altogether. In this chapter we use...

This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA)—using Malawi and Mozambique a...

Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice p...

Aim Agricultural practices have dramatically altered the land cover of the earth, but the spatial extent and intensity of these practices is often difficult to catalogue. Information on the distribution and performance of specific crops is often only available through national or subnational statistics. Recently, however, there have been multiple i...

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating populati...

Agricultural practices have dramatically altered the Earth’s land cover, but the spatial extent and intensity of these practices is often difficult to catalogue. Cropland accounts for nearly 15 million square kilometers of Earth’s land cover — amounting to 12 percent of the planet’s ice-free land surface — yet information on the distribution and pe...

This study was conducted with the objective of determining the returns to sustainable land management (SLM) at the national level in Bhutan. The study first uses satellite data on land change (Landsat) to examine land use change in 1990–2010 and its impact on sediment loading in hydroelectric power plants. The study then uses the Soil and Water A...

Drought in East Africa is a recurring phenomenon with significant humanitarian impacts. Given the steep climatic gradients, topographic contrasts, general data scarcity, and, in places, political instability that characterize the region, there is a need for spatially distributed, remotely derived monitoring systems to inform national and internatio...

Drought in East Africa is a recurring phenomenon with significant humanitarian impacts. Given the steep climatic gradients, topographic contrasts, general data scarcity, and, in places, political instability that characterize the region, there is a need for spatially distributed, remotely derived monitoring systems to inform national and internatio...