Wen Chen

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Verified

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• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor at Yunnan University

September is widely considered to be the final month of the monsoon season on the Indian subcontinent. Precipitation levels during this month exert a pivotal influence on the duration of monsoon rainfall, with the potential to substantially impact subsequent dry spells in the region. Consequently, further investigation into the variations in Septem...

Observations indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in autumn is an important precursor to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 14 months later. Our study explores the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating this IOD-ENSO relationship. The models exhibit significant spread in the IOD-ENSO relationship, which can be attributable...

The Hadley circulation (HC) is the strongest meridional overturning circulation on Earth and plays a crucial role in linking the tropics and extra-tropics. Compared to the zonal mean HC, the regional HC is much less studied. This study investigates the capability of state-of-the-art climate models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (C...

This study investigates the impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the duration of the South Asia high (SAH) that persists over southern Asia (10°N–27.5°N, 40°E–115°E) during the summer‐to‐winter transition. The findings indicate that the duration of the SAH over southern Asia displays distinct interannual variations. Specifically, t...

This study shows a close relationship between winter Arctic sea ice concentration (WASIC) anomalies in the Barents-Greenland Seas and the subsequent autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) based on the observational analysis and numerical simulations. Particularly, more (less) WASIC in the Barents-Greenland Seas tends to lead to a positive (negative) IOD...

During 29th July–1st August in 2023, a persistent heavy rainfall event (“23·7” event) hit North China causing severe floods, enormous infrastructure damage, and large economy loss. Observational analysis shows that the extremely large accumulation of precipitation and long duration of this event are closely related to a slowly moving landfall typho...

Plain Language Summary Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset is important on the large‐scale: signify the establishment of summer monsoon over East Asia‐Southeast Asia‐western North Pacific, the arrival of the main rainy season in these locations, and the adjustment of the atmospheric circulation from winter‐type...

Stratosphere intrusion (stratospheric intrusion (SI)), the largest natural source of ozone (O3), poses a significant challenge for policymakers in developing effective O3 control strategies. Understanding the emission reduction pathway under SI influence is crucial for achieving long‐term O3 attainment. However, the role of SI in tropospheric O3 po...

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an important air-sea coupled system in the tropical Indian Ocean that plays a remarkable role in modulating agriculture, ecosystems and extreme climate in many regions of the world. One of the most pronounced biases in the IOD simulated by the previous generation of climate models is its excessively large amplitude....

In this study, the authors identify a decadal decrease in May precipitation over Yunnan, China, after 2009. Based on observed data from meteorological stations, the area‐average precipitation in May over Yunnan has decreased from 135 mm during the period 1999–2008 to 83 mm during the period 2009–2019. The decline in precipitation is particularly pr...

Whether the rapid warming of the Arctic, particularly the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), substantially affects the Eurasian winter climate has been debated for over a decade. Here, we use an extended dynamical adjustment method to separate the effects of internal dynamics and thermodynamically forced BKS warming on atmospheric circulation, relying solely...

The North China Plain (NCP) experiences severe air pollution, with PM2.5 (fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) as the primary pollutant, especially in early winter (November to December). The PM2.5 concentrations in this period is significantly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we have fo...

The Siberian High (SibH), a prominent feature of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, exhibited enhanced interdecadal variability since 1970, characterized by a sharp decline from 1970 to 1990 followed by a steep recovery from 1990 to 2010. The factors underpinning these variations are unclear. Using the CanESM5 large ensemble, includin...

Based on multiple datasets, the spring rainy season onset (RSO) date over southern China is objectively determined and validated, and the relationship between RSO and tropical Pacific SST is then explored. The RSO date is defined as the time when the cumulative precipitation departure over southern China reaches its minimum value, with a climatolog...

The lack of long-term in-situ observations hampers our ability to fully understand climate change in Antarctica. State-of-the-art reanalysis datasets fill a critical gap, and this study utilizes the ensemble mean from five reanalysis datasets to examine temperature changes and their associated mechanisms in Antarctica. The findings reveal that the...

It was previously revealed that winter precipitation in East Asia is linked to tropical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. While several teleconnection pathways have been identified, accurately measuring these connections and determining the relative contributions of SSTs remains a challenge. We employed a nov...

The long rains in East Africa are vital for agriculture, water resources, and socio-economic stability, sustaining millions of livelihoods. However, their pronounced interannual variability exacerbates food insecurity, emphasizing the need to understand the region’s rainfall drivers. This study analyzed rainfall variability using Climate Hazards Gr...

Over the past decade, China has enacted forward-looking environmental policies that have significantly reduced air pollution. However, while there appears to be a synergy between economic development and improvements in air quality, regional imbalances in development and disparities in health risks underscore systemic challenges in environmental go...

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections over East Asia display inconsistency between early and late winter, yet the undering physical mechanisms remain unclear. Employing causal inference analysis, including Liang-Kleeman information flow and PC-MCI causal discovery, our study reveals a stable information flow from ENSO to the upper...

Winter precipitation (P) in East Asia (EA) is characterized by a wetter south and a drier north. Most of the existing research has concentrated on elucidating the mechanisms of winter P in southern EA, with relatively less attention given to northern East Asia (NEA). Our analysis showed that the correlation coefficient (c.c.) of average winter prec...

The concurrent occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes, known as compound temperature‐precipitation extreme events (CTPEEs), leads to more pronounced consequences for human society and ecosystems than when these extremes occur separately. However, such compound extremes have not been sufficiently studied, especially during boreal sprin...

This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of seven East Asian summer monsoon northern boundary indices, categorized into precipitation, Aridity Index, low-level wind, and precipitable water types. We employ a novel vine copula approach to construct comprehensive indices capturing fluctuations along the entire boundary. On interdecada...

The leading coupled mode of air-sea variability in the subtropical northeastern Pacific is recognized as the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM). This mode acts as a pivotal conduit, connecting extratropical atmospheric shifts with the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), thereby carrying significant weight in enhancing the accuracy of EN...

Against the backdrop of global warming, Northern East Asia experienced a record‐breaking extreme cold event during December 13 to 19 in 2023. The mechanisms behind this extreme cold event remain unclear. This study uses the circulation projection method to detect and quantify the contributions of various factors to this extreme cold event. The find...

Based on multiple datasets and different methods, this manuscript objectively determined the rainy season onset (RSO) over the Southeast Asia Low-Latitude Highlands (SEALLH) and investigated the relationship between RSO and spring drought. The RSO date is defined as the minimum of the rainfall departure over the SEALLH, with a mean value of 11 May...

This study developed an objective identification algorithm for the Southwest Vortex (SWV), the dominant rainstorm system prevalent in Southwest China. Based on the TempestExt package, the newly developed SWV identification algorithm employed a 12 h minimum duration threshold, utilizing the high-resolution ERA5 dataset with 1 h intervals. The result...

Southwest China experienced a severe drought during winter 2022–spring 2023. This drought mainly struck Yunnan Province and surrounding regions (21°–30° N, 97°–106° E), with precipitation deficit lasting for about 8 months from Oct 2022 to May 2023. The area-mean precipitation and surface soil moisture in the study region during the drought were bo...

A deadly heatwave hit North China in the summer of 2023, causing severe damage to human health and public infrastructure. However, the underlying physical mechanism is still unknown completely. In this study, we explore the causative role of anomalous sea surface temperatures in three oceans using observation and reanalysis data, as well as partial...

The Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern is an important atmospheric intrinsic mode over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and it has strong influence on the weather and climate over Eurasia and remote regions. Investigating factors for the EU variability is crucial and has important implications for regional climate prediction. This study rev...

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important intrinsic atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific. Observations have shown that the boreal winter NPO is a crucial precursor to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with many ENSO events being preceded by the NPO. It is therefore imperative to assess the ability of current coupled climate m...

Along the East Asian coast, the interdecadal variation in tropical cyclone (TC) landfall activities in the early 2010s shows a tripole change pattern characterized by significantly increased (decreased) TC landfalls to the north of 30°N and to the south of 20°N (between 20° and 30°N). The increased TC landfalls in the East Asian subregion north to...

Subseasonal forecast models are shown to suffer from the same inconsistency in the signal‐to‐noise ratio evident in climate models. Namely, predictable signals in these models are too weak, yet there is a relatively high level of agreement with observed variability of the atmospheric circulation. The net effect is subseasonal forecast models show h...

Known as the “Holocene temperature conundrum”, controversy remains between paleoclimate reconstructions indicating cooling during the late-Holocene versus model simulations indicating warming. Here, we present a composite Holocene winter temperature index record derived from East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) reconstructions. This new temperature ind...

The North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is the strongest interannual air‐sea coupled system in the subtropical northeastern Pacific, which can significantly impact the development of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study examines performance of the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model (CAS‐ESM2), develo...

This study reveals the remarkable interdecadal changes in the influence of boreal winter Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies (ASICAs) in the Greenland–Barents Seas on the subsequent El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development. Winter ASICA is strongly associated with the subsequent winter ENSO before the late 1980s and after the late 2...

The near-term performance efficiency in predicting the dry and wet years in the West African monsoon (WAM) season (May to October) has been studied from 1979 to 2050 using the CRU observational rainfall, NCEP RII atmospheric circulation fields, and CORDEX-Africa outputs in the historical and RCP 8.5 experiments. The dry and wet years from the 6-mon...

The response of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) circulation to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) forcing scenarios is examined using the CESM1 state-of-the-art global circulation model from 2021 to 2050. The projections show that monsoon precipitation will increase over East Asia, the North Pacific Ocean, the I...

The poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent years has been linked to the expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC). Here, we investigate the impact of the winter regional HC over the western Pacific (WPHC) on the frequency of following summer landfalling TC (LTC) in China. Results show that interannual variation of the LTC fre...

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) reaching high-latitudes in summer contribute to the majority of climatological poleward water vapor transport into the Arctic. This transport has exhibited long term changes over the past decades, which cannot be entirely explained by anthropogenic forcing according to ensemble model responses. Here, through observational a...

The Mongolian Plateau (MP) has undergone a significant drought trend in recent decades, presenting a substantial threat to local ecosystems and environments. The debate persists on whether this observed drought trend stems from external forcings or is a result of internal variability. Utilizing the large-ensemble simulations of the climate model an...

In recent decades, Southwest China (SWC) has suffered from frequent super droughts, leading to severe economic losses and ecological degradation. This study investigates the characteristics of super droughts in SWC during 1961–2022, reveals the compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies, and explores the plausible atmospheric circulation mechanism...

The poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent years has been linked to the expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC). Here, we investigate the impact of the winter regional HC over western Pacific (WPHC) on the frequency of following summer landfalling TC (LTC) in China. Results show that interannual variation of the LTC frequen...

The spring Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is an important precursor of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, recent studies reported that only about half of the spring PMM events were followed by ENSO events. This study examines the role of internal climate variability in modulating the impact of PMM on ENSO using 100-member ensemble simulat...

The Siberian High (SH) is one of the most prominent wintertime circulation systems in the Northern Hemisphere. The variability of the intensity of the SH during the boreal winter has been extensively studied, while the reasons behind its formation remain largely elusive. This study investigates the interannual variation and underlying mechanisms of...

Factors related to rainfall variabilities in southern and southeastern Ethiopia have not yet been addressed. The extreme wet and dry events caused by atmospheric circulation patterns during the March-April-May periods were studied using 1991–2022 data from Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and atmospheric circulatio...

Simple Summary Trachycarpus nanus is a national, second-class, rare and endangered plant in China, and a plant species endemic to Yunnan. This species has a high medicinal, ecological, and scientific value, but it is currently on the verge of extinction. Therefore, it is urgent to learn its extinction risk under global warming. We predict its multi...

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), an important mode of atmospheric variability, is a crucial trigger for the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the seasonal footprinting mechanism. How the NPO effect on ENSO changes in response to greenhouse warming remains unclear, however. Here, using climate model simulations under high-em...

Utilizing ERA5 data, this study provides evidence that both the winter-mean state and subseasonal variability (SSV) of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern significantly influence the frequency of cold extremes in Eurasia. The positive phase of winter-mean WACE (WACEMean) or a stronger SSV of WACE (WACESSV) corresponds to a higher occurrence...

Exceptionally strong summertime warming occurred over the Mongolian Plateau between 1986 and 2004, at a rate that was three times the average terrestrial warming in the Northern Hemisphere. The physical processes responsible for this extreme warming remain unclear. Here we show that the synchronous phase shift of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillatio...

Plain Language Summary Climate models have projected a decrease in TC genesis frequency in future warming. However, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis under global warming remains uncertain partly due to insufficient resolution as well as the ensemble size of climate model simulations. We show a global feature of the robust p...

Studies have shown that the springtime Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a strong influence on the subsequent Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Nevertheless, not every AO is followed by IOD and ENSO. This study divides the spring AO into three types: followed by both IOD and ENSO (AO-Both), followed by ENSO only (AO-ENSO)...

Plain Language Summary The Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant climate mode over East Asia and the western North Pacific and reflects the out‐of‐phase variation of rainfall and the low‐level circulation between the tropics and mid‐latitudes. However, recent studies have reported that the PJ impacts are not limited to these regions, but also...

Interdecadal change in the correlation coefficient between two variables is an important scientific issue since it can affect climate predictions. A new statistical method is proposed for the quantitative decomposition of the difference in the correlation coefficient, and its derivation is based only on the first-order Taylor expansion. Particularl...

Based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data, the persistent downward impacts of the weak stratospheric polar vortex (WPV) events are examined. The WPV events with persistent tropospheric impacts are selected and classified into two groups according to whether there is a phase switch of the surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) around the onset day of the cases....

This study reveals a strong relationship between the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) in boreal spring and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in following autumn. A positive spring PMM tends to be followed by a positive IOD and vice versa. The mechanism for the influence of the PMM on the IOD is then investigated. Positive spring PMM-related cyclonic...

We estimate that anthropogenic forcing caused half of the observed temperature anomaly during the August 2022 heatwave in southern China. Thermodynamical processes, especially soil moisture–SAT feedback, amplified the heatwave.

This study, utilizing ERA5 data from 1979 to 2021, identifies a prevalent occurrence of blocking events in East Antarctica, particularly in the region extending from Wilkes Land to Dronning Maud Land. The genesis of these blocking highs is typically facilitated by the intensification of Rossby waves within the circumpolar westerlies. By classifying...

The Western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most consequential atmospheric teleconnections during boreal winter, as it profoundly influences weather extremes and climate variability across Eurasia and North America. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to be a crucial external forcing of WP variability. In this study, we meticulo...

Convectively coupled equatorial waves (Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical depression–type waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves) are important components of the tropical atmosphere. It is already known that the first four kinds of equatorial waves can trigger the onset of the South China Sea summer...

In early February 2023, there was severe haze on the North China Plain (NCP) that was contemporaneous with heavy rainfall over southern China, which was known as southern rainfall-northern haze (SR-NH). Based on observational and reanalysis data, the meteorological causes of this SR-NH event are investigated in this study using correlation analysis...

2023年2月上旬, 华南地区经历了持续性降雨过程, 而同期华北平原出现了持续性PM2.5污染天气, 即中国东部出现了“南雨-北霾”现象. 本研究基于观测和再分析资料, 利用相关分析、动力诊断分析和数值模式试验等方法, 深入分析了此次“南雨-北霾”事件的气象成因. 结果表明: 西北太平洋异常反气旋(或称东北亚异常反气旋)是此次“南雨-北霾”事件的主导因子. 一方面, 该异常反气旋引导西南气流为华南地区输送了大量水汽, 并与中国大陆对流层高层异常气旋配合引起强上升运动, 导致华南地区出现大范围降雨过程. 另一方面, 该异常反气旋西侧的东南气流削弱了华北平原气候态北风, 使得污染物的水平扩散条件变差, 同时与该异常反气旋有关的华北平原大气边界层高度降低和相对湿度增加, 使得华北平原PM2.5浓度...

Previous studies have shown that both the stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the North Atlantic winter circulation. Here we use reanalysis and model output data to show that the QBO and ENSO interact to produce a nonlinear effect on the North Atlantic winter circulation. Specificall...

The summer rainfall amount over East China is expected to increase along with a strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warmer climate. However, how the seasonality of precipitation will respond to global warming remains uncertain and is closely related to monsoon circulation. Here, we project future changes in multiple intra-seasonal r...

The Siberian High (SH), an important atmospheric system over Eurasia, exhibits notable seasonality—forming in autumn and peaking in the boreal winter. Many previous studies have revealed the characteristics of the SH in its peak phase; however, the SH formation process remains unclear. This study examined the climatological characteristics of SH fo...

This study examines the joint impacts of the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and early spring Aleutian Low intensity (ALI) on the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When the winter NPO and early spring ALI have the opposite sign (i.e., positive winter NPO was followed by weakened AL in early spring, and vice versa), pronou...