Walter Jetz

Yale University | YU · Center for Biodiversity and Global Change

Gaging the effects of impending climate change on biodiversity is one of the most pressing scientific challenges1,2. Recent studies have indicated the risk of widespread range contraction³ and community collapse⁴ globally, but their specific interpretation and decision-relevance is constrained by the coarse-grain nature of their underlying evidence...

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) that integrate presence‐only and presence–absence data offer a promising avenue to improve information on species' geographic distributions. The use of such ‘integrated SDMs’ on a species range‐wide extent has been constrained by the often limited presence–absence data and by the heterogeneous sampling of the...

Species occurrence data are foundational for research, conservation, and science communication, but the limited availability and accessibility of reliable data represents a major obstacle, particularly for insects, which face mounting pressures. We present BeeBDC, a new R package, and a global bee occurrence dataset to address this issue. We combin...

As global change accelerates, accurate predictions of species distributions and biodiversity patterns are critical to prevent population declines and biodiversity loss. However, at continental and global scales, these predictions are often derived from species distribution models (SDMs) fit at coarse spatial grains uninformed by ecological processe...

Expert range maps (ExpRMs) are frequently used to inform species distributions, but often incomplete or missing for many species, particularly among plants and invertebrates. Many species without ExpRMs also have too few occurrence records for reliable application of species distribution models (SDMs). Here we evaluate the performance of commonly u...

The worldwide variation in vegetation height is fundamental to the global carbon cycle and central to the functioning of ecosystems and their biodiversity. Geospatially explicit and, ideally, highly resolved information is required to manage terrestrial ecosystems, mitigate climate change and prevent biodiversity loss. Here we present a comprehensi...

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) calls for a 50% reduction in rates of invasive alien species establishment by 2030. However, estimating changes in rates of introduction and establishment is far from straightforward, particularly on a national scale. Variation in survey effort over time, the absence of data on survey effort,...

As climate change transforms the biosphere, more comprehensive andbiologically relevant measurements of changing conditions are needed.Traditional climate measurements are often constrained by geographicallystatic, coarse, sparse and biased sampling, and only indirect links to ecologicalresponses. Here we discuss how animal-borne sensors can delive...

NOTE: This manuscript and the package behind it are still undergoing tests and development. Once these are complete and a final version is accepted we will update the input data, package versions, and rerun all queries (values will change). Please contact James for further queries of collaborations in the meantime. Abstract: Species occurrence da...

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on the coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commona...

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large...

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales....

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an important tool for predicting species occurrences in geographic space and for understanding the drivers of these occurrences. An effect of environmental variable selection on SDM outcomes has been noted, but how the treatment of variables influences models, including model performance and predicted rang...

Genetic biodiversity is rapidly gaining attention in global conservation policy. However, for almost all species, conservation relevant, population-level genetic data are lacking, limiting the extent to which genetic diversity can be used for conservation policy and decision-making. Macrogenetics is an emerging discipline that explores the patterns...

Motivation Trait‐based studies remain limited by the quality and scope of the underlying trait data available. Most of the existing trait databases treat species traits as fixed across time, with any potential temporal variation in the measured traits being unavailable. This is despite the fact that many species are well known to show plasticity in...

Faunal turnover in Indo-Australia across Wallace's Line is one of the most recognizable patterns in biogeography and has catalyzed debate about the role of evolutionary and geoclimatic history in biotic interchanges. Here, analysis of more than 20,000 vertebrate species with a model of geoclimate and biological diversification shows that broad prec...

Aim Species depend upon a constrained set of environmental conditions, or environmental niches, for survival and reproduction that are being increasingly perturbed or lost under rapid climatic change. Seasonal environments, which require species to withstand shifting conditions or track their niches via movement, can offer an important system to st...

Growing threats to biodiversity demand timely, detailed information on species occurrence, diversity and abundance at large scales. Camera traps (CTs), combined with computer vision models, provide an efficient method to survey species of certain taxa with high spatio-temporal resolution. We test the potential of CTs to close biodiversity knowledge...

Butterflies are a diverse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have evolved with plants and dispersed throughout the world in response to key geological events. However, these hypotheses have not been extensively tested because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets for butterfly larval hosts and global distributions are la...

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants...

All aspects of biodiversity research, from taxonomy to conservation, rely on data associated with species names. Effective integration of names across multiple fields is paramount and depends on coordination and organization of taxonomic data. We assess current efforts and find that even key applications for well-studied taxa still lack commonality...

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a common tool in studies of species–environment relationships but can be negatively affected by positional uncertainty of underlying species occurrence data. Previous work has documented the effect of positional uncertainty on model predictive performance, but its consequences for inference about speci...

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86-150 billion years (11-19%) of jawed vertebrate e...

The delineation of biophysical regions that characterize distinct biota provides key units of analysis for ecology, biogeography, and conservation. In the oceans, global regionalizations have been developed for coastal, surface, and mesopelagic systems. Yet, despite their extraordinary richness, seafloor ecosystems have so far not been given the sa...

Tetrapods (amphibian, reptiles, birds and mammals) have become a central model system for global ecology, conservation, and biodiversity science at large. But continuing data gaps, limited data standardisation, and ongoing dynamics of taxonomic nomenclature put constraints on robust integrative research in this group and potentially causes biased i...

Motivation Aquatic insects comprise 64% of freshwater animal diversity and are widely used as bioindicators to assess water quality impairment and freshwater ecosystem health, as well as to test ecological hypotheses. Despite their importance, a comprehensive, global database of aquatic insect occurrences for mapping freshwater biodiversity in macr...

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. Wh...

Species environmental niches are central to ecology, evolution, and global change research, but their characterization and interpretation depend on the spatial scale (specifically, the spatial grain) of their measurement. We find that the spatial grain of niche measurement is usually uninformed by ecological processes and varies by orders of magnit...

Motivation: Aquatic insects comprise 64% of freshwater animal diversity and are

Motivation: Aquatic insects comprise 64% of freshwater animal diversity and are widely used as bioindicators to assess water quality impairment and freshwater ecosystem health, as well as to test ecological hypotheses. Despite their importance, a comprehensive, global database of aquatic insect occurrences for mapping freshwater biodiversity in mac...

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants...

Assessing and addressing biodiversity needs are of critical and time-sensitive importance, with the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework’s Global Taxonomy Initiative underscoring the need to build capacity in how we conceptualize biodiversity (Abrahamse et al. 2021). Species—as biological units—and their names are the backbone for the data integ...

Invertebrates constitute the majority of animal species and are critical for ecosystem functioning and services. Nonetheless, global invertebrate biodiversity patterns and their congruences with vertebrates remain largely unknown. We resolve the first high-resolution (~20-km) global diversity map for a major invertebrate clade, ants, using biodiver...

The performance of species distribution models (SDMs) is known to be affected by analysis grain and positional error of species occurrences. Coarsening of the analysis grain has been suggested to compensate for positional errors. Nevertheless, this way of dealing with positional errors has never been thoroughly tested. With increasing use of fine‐s...

Species depend upon a constrained set of environmental conditions, or niches, for survival and reproduction that are being increasingly perturbed or lost under rapid climatic change. Seasonal environments offer an important system to study the range of biological responses to cope with such change, as they require species to either undergo physiolo...

The Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species (GRIIS) is a collation of data across 196 individual country checklists of alien species, along with a designation of those species with evidence of impact at a country level. The Compendium provides a baseline for monitoring the distribution and invasion status of all...

Biodiversity varies predictably with environmental energy around the globe, but the underlaying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. The evolutionary speed hypothesis predicts that environmental kinetic energy shapes variation in speciation rates through temperature- or life history-dependent rates of evolution. To test whether variation in e...

Aim Biogeographical inference and assessments of species' threat status and trends depend on comprehensive information on the current geographical distribution of species. Even country‐level presences remain poorly known for many insect species and consistent global overviews for those species are missing. Here we integrate information from literat...

How and why lineages evolve along with niche space as they diversify and adapt to different environments is fundamental to evolution. Progress has been hampered by the difficulties of linking a robust empirical characterization of species niches with flexible evolutionary models that describe their evolution. Consequently, the relative influence of...

Butterflies are a diverse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have diversified via coevolution with plants and in response to dispersals following key geological events. These hypotheses have been poorly tested at the macroevolutionary scale because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets on global distributions and larval...

The global biodiversity crisis threatens the natural world and its capacity to provide benefits to humans into the future. The conservation of evolutionary history, captured by the measure phylogenetic diversity (PD), is linked to the maintenance of these benefits and future options. The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric...

The worldwide variation in vegetation height is fundamental to the global carbon cycle and central to the functioning of ecosystems and their biodiversity. Geospatially explicit and, ideally, highly resolved information is required to manage terrestrial ecosystems, mitigate climate change, and prevent biodiversity loss. Here, we present the first g...

Individual decisions regarding how, why and when organisms interact with one another and with their environment scale up to shape patterns and processes in communities. Recent evidence has firmly established the prevalence of intraspecific variation in nature and its relevance in community ecology, yet challenges associated with collecting data on...

Space-based tracking technology using low-cost miniature tags is now delivering data on fine-scale animal movement at near-global scale. Linked with remotely sensed environmental data, this offers a biological lens on habitat integrity and connectivity for conservation and human health; a global network of animal sentinels of environmental change.

A standardized delineation of the world’s mountains has many applications in research, education, and the science-policy interface. Here we provide a new inventory of 8616 mountain ranges developed under the auspices of the Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA). Building on an earlier compilation, the presented geospatial database uses a f...

Significance Understanding the impacts of urbanization and the associated urban land expansion on species is vital for informed urban planning that minimizes biodiversity loss. Predicting habitat that will be lost to urban land expansion for over 30,000 species under three different future scenarios, we find that up to 855 species are directly thre...

Motivation Insects provide vital ecological functions and account for over half of all described species. An at least basic understanding of their geographical distributions is key for addressing a range of central ecological and evolutionary questions and to inform conservation. However, even for popular groups, such as butterflies, the knowledge...

Aim: Comprehensive, global information on species' occurrences is an essential biodiversity variable and central to a range of applications in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation. Expert range maps often represent a species' only available distributional information and play an increasing role in conservation assessments and macroeco...

How and why lineages evolve along niche space as they diversify and adapt to different environments is fundamental to evolution. Progress has been hampered by the difficulties of linking a comprehensive empirical characterization of species niches with flexible evolutionary models that describe their evolution. Consequently, the relative influence...

Advances in spatial biodiversity science and nationally available data have enabled the development of indicators that report on biodiversity outcomes, account for uneven global biodiversity between countries, and provide direct planning support. We urge their inclusion in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

High-resolution climatic data are essential to many questions and applications in environmental research and ecology. Here we develop and implement a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation estimate that incorporates high resolution (30 arcsec, ≈1 km) satellite-derived cloud frequency. The downscaling algorithm incorporate...

A vast range of research applications in biodiversity sciences requires integrating primary species, genetic, or ecosystem data with other environmental data. This integration requires a consideration of the spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the data and processes in question. But a versatile and scale flexible environmental annotation of...

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed...

Significance Tropical moist forests harbor much of the world’s biodiversity, but this diversity is not evenly distributed globally, with tropical moist forests in the Neotropics and Indomalaya generally exhibiting much greater diversity than in the Afrotropics. Here, we assess the ubiquity of this “pantropical diversity disparity” (PDD) using the p...

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns – but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is lar...

Invasive alien species are repeatedly shown to be amongst the top threats to biodiversity globally. Robust indicators for measuring the status and trends of biological invasions are lacking, but essential for monitoring biological invasions and the effectiveness of interventions. Here, we formulate and demonstrate three such indicators that capture...

Conserving and managing biodiversity in the face of ongoing global change requires sufficient evidence to assess status and trends of species distributions. Here, we propose novel indicators of biodiversity data coverage and sampling effectiveness and analyze national trajectories in closing spatiotemporal knowledge gaps for terrestrial vertebrates...

Individual variation is increasingly recognized as a central component of ecological processes, but its role in structuring environmental niche associations remains largely unknown. Species’ responses to environmental conditions are ultimately determined by the niches of single individuals, yet environmental associations are typically captured only...

Signatory countries to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) are formulating goals and indicators through 2050 under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Among the goals is increasing the integrity of ecosystems. The CBD is now seeking input toward a quantifiable definition of integrity and methods to track it globally. Here, w...

The quantification of Hutchinson's n‐dimensional hypervolume has enabled substantial progress in community ecology, species niche analysis and beyond. However, most existing methods do not support a partitioning of the different components of hypervolume. Such a partitioning is crucial to address the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in hypervolume measure...

Reconstructing the tempo at which biodiversity arose is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biologists, yet the relative merits of evolutionary-rate estimates are debated based on whether they are derived from the fossil record or time-calibrated phylogenies (timetrees) of living species. Extinct lineages unsampled in timetrees are known to “pull” s...

Tropical cloud forests (TCFs) are one of the world’s most species- and endemism-rich terrestrial ecosystems. TCFs are threatened by direct human pressures and climate change, yet the fate of these extraordinary ecosystems remains insufficiently quantified. With discussions of the post-2020 biodiversity framework underway, TCFs are a defining test c...

Much of biodiversity remains undiscovered, causing species and their functions to remain unrealized and potentially lost in ignorance. Here we use extensive species-level data in a time-to-event model framework to identify taxonomic and geographic discovery gaps in terrestrial vertebrates. Biological, environmental and sociological factors all affe...