W. Kanning

W. Kanning
Deltares

PhD

About

59
Publications
14,651
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745
Citations

Publications

Publications (59)
Article
Full-text available
Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a form of internal erosion which can lead to failure of levees and dams. Most research focused on the critical head difference at which piping failure occurs. Two aspects have received less attention, namely (1) the temporal evolution of piping and (2) the local hydraulic conditions in the pipe and at the pipe tip....
Article
Full-text available
This study introduces a method for assessing the annual failure rate of levees based on information from historical floods, while also considering the return period of these past events. Also, an approach has been developed to quantify the influence of deviating conditions on failure rates. The presence of deviating conditions at failed and survive...
Article
Full-text available
Prioritisation of flood defence maintenance is typically based on visual inspection. However, literature shows that the Probability of Detection (PoD) of visual inspection can vary significantly. Here we investigate the PoD for visual inspections of flood defence structures, the consistency of damage classification, and the influence of different v...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Most research on backward erosion piping (BEP) focuses on the critical conditions leading to failure. This paper studies the development of piping over time once the critical conditions are exceeded, which is useful to estimate time to failure. A commonly used small scale rectangular box setup is modified in order to monitor pore pressures and pipe...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Outline of adopted definition of characteristic values of geotechnical parameters in Dutch codes of practice and the way these are inferred from field data. The following subjects are covered: • The overall semi-probabilistic framework and the role of characteristic values therein; • The modeling of spatial variability of a soil property, includin...
Chapter
The Netherlands is protected against major floods by a system of primary flood defenses (levees, dunes and hydraulic structures). These must comply with standards defined in terms of maximum allowable probabilities of flooding. Therefore, a new assessment framework for the main failure mechanisms is based on a probabilistic approach. One of the fai...
Article
Full-text available
Spatial variability and limited measurements often result in low reliability estimates of geotechnical failure modes of dikes (i.e., earthen flood defences). Required dike reinforcements are usually not executed within a few years after inception, which enables efforts to improve reliability estimates by reducing uncertainty. Often decision makers...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a large scale backward erosion piping experiment aimed at studying the erosion rate. This temporal aspect of piping complements previous research, which focused on the critical head. To study the progression rate in realistic conditions, an experiment was carried out on a 1.8 m high levee with a cohesive blanket on a sandy found...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change and deterioration require a continuous effort to reinforce flood defences and meet reliability requirements. To efficiently upgrade flood defence systems, insight in costs and benefits of measures at a system level is required throughout the process of planning and design. Due to the size of flood defence systems the number of possib...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Revetments protect flood defences against erosion from waves and currents. At several coastal dikes in the Netherlands asphalt has been used as a revetment material for protection against waves. Asphalt concrete revetments can degrade due to several shock-based and continuous degradation processes, for instance wave impacts, uneven settlements, cra...
Article
Full-text available
Hindcasting of past levee failures enhances insights in the performance and vulnerability of levees. The scarcity of field evidence makes identifying the cause(s) of failure difficult. Under these circumstances, multiple scenarios and model choices are possible to characterise and to model the failure. This paper shows how probabilistic Bayesian te...
Article
Full-text available
Forensic analysis of past failures is valuable to improve our understanding of levee behavior. In this article a new systematic approach of forensic analysis for levee failures is proposed and applied to the Breitenhagen levee breach that occurred along the river Saale in Germany in 2013. The purpose of this study is to identify the cause of the br...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Many flood defences in the Netherlands will have to be reinforced in the coming decades. Many dikes do not fulfill the safety standard due to geotechnical failure modes, largely due to epistemic, reducible uncertainties.. The Value of Information is a measure to indicate beforehand whether an investment towards reducing epistemic uncertainty is eco...
Article
The Netherlands is protected against major floods by a system of primary flood defenses. These primary flood defenses have to comply with flood protection standards. Since 2017, these are defined in terms of maximum allowable probabilities of flooding. This is why a new set of tools and guidelines had to be developed, allowing for probabilistic as...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Since 2017 Dutch flood protection standards are defined as target flood probabilities that all primary flood defences have to comply with by 2050. Explicitly accounting for uncertainties in probability distributions of load and resistance is an integral part of estimating the actual flood probability. Based on such estimates, many flood defences wi...
Conference Paper
This paper addresses the use of spatially distributed hydraulic head measurements to reduce uncertainty in backward piping erosion (piping) failure assessment. Uncertainty and variability in soil characteristics and limited measurements propagate through failure analysis, leading to highly uncertainty probabilities of failure. This paper uses quali...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Dikes and levees play a crucial role in flood protection. The main causes of levee failures are of geotechnical nature. Geotechnical failure modes are also the main contributors to the probability of failure of flood defenses such as levees due to the large uncertainties in ground conditions. Hence, information on ground conditions and soil propert...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Schweckendiek, T., Teixeira, A., van der Krogt, M.G., Kanning, W.: Reliability updating for slope stability of dikes (test cases report), Deltares report .
Conference Paper
In the Netherlands, all primary flood defences are periodically tested against statutory safety standards. The new safety assessment framework WTI 2017 (defined in terms of allowable probability of flooding) allows for probabilistic as well as semi-probabilistic assessments, which are based on a partial factor approach. To ensure consistency betwee...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In recent years there has been an increasing focus on life-cycle and asset management as a means of managing systems of ageing infrastructure. To accurately assess performance, structural health mon-itoring can be an important means. In this paper a tool is presented which assesses the costs and benefits of structural health monitoring in life-cycl...
Article
Given the large investments in dike construction and reinforcements, optimization of these interventions could contribute to significant cost savings. In this paper a probabilistic method is developed for obtaining the geometry of a river dike cross-section that fulfils a specified target reliability at a minimal cost. The method takes into account...
Article
This paper focuses on understanding the temporal behavior of backward erosion using measurements from densely spaced piezometers during large-scale field experiments in October 2009 and September 2012 at IJkdijk in the Netherlands. Observations and data originate from nearly continuous monitoring of pore-water pressure and visual observations of se...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Rapid assessment methods with respect to piping and slope stability have been used for 30 miles of Mississippi levees. This paper first gives an overview and comparison of the US and Dutch assessment methods. Then results for a Mississippi levee assessment with an automated assessment tool, called Dike Analyses Module (DAM), are presented. The Dike...
Conference Paper
This research focuses on the optimization of river dikes using probabilistic methods. Its aim is to develop a generic method that automatically estimates the failure probabilities of many river dike cross-sections and gives the one with the least cost, taking into account the boundary conditions and the requirements that are set by the user. Even t...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The changes in a flood-defence system over time are dynamic in nature. There is a wide range of aspects in the system and its surroundings that evolve through time, such as climate, the available amount of knowledge, societal risk perception, structural deterioration due to subsidence, economic and demographic growth, etc. These variations are hard...
Article
In the light of changes in climate, economy and demography, civilians, politicians and scientists alike often wonder how far into the future the Dutch polder approach will last. The polder approach refers to the drainage and flood protection of low-lying areas by means of pumps, canals and flood defences. An increase in river discharges and sea lev...
Article
Full-text available
Piping is one of the main failure mechanisms for flood defences. This paper gives an overview of recent developments in the reliability analysis for this mechanism in the Netherlands. These comprise new approaches in the treatment of heterogeneity of the subsoil with respect to the failure process, the inclusion of information from field observatio...
Article
Full-text available
The cost of upgrading and raising coastal defences is an important consideration in societal response to sea-level rise. Currently available unit cost estimates have a limited empirical basis. This article presents new information on the unit costs of adapting coastal defences for three specific case studies in low-lying delta regions: The Netherla...
Article
The piping mechanism is a dangerous failure mechanism for dikes and other flood protection structures in the world. A dike fails due to piping in case a head difference causes a water flow below the dike that, in case the flow is strong enough, causes the soil particles to erode. The progressing erosion ultimately results in the collapse of the dik...
Article
Full-text available
Piping, also called under-seepage, is an internal erosion mechanism, which can cause the failure of dikes or other flood defence structures. The uncertainty in the resistance of a flood defence against piping is usually large, causing high probabilities of failure for this mechanism. A considerable part of this uncertainty is of epistemic nature, w...
Article
Dunes provide protection for low lying hinterland against flooding due to storms. Due to the dynamic nature of dunes, safety levels provided vary in time. This paper aims to gain insight in how dune building processes govern dune behavior on the yearly to decadal timescale. Dunes grow mainly due to aeolian transport.Most sediment transport formulat...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper presents an analysis of annual to decadal dune behavior along the Holland Coast. In the database of the JAarlijkse KUStmeting (JARKUS) a very large collection of yearly measured profiles is available for analysis. These measured profiles are used to extract a selection of parameters relevant to the development of dunes which are inter-co...
Article
Vorig jaar kwamen de resultaten van de derde landelijke toetsing van de veiligheid van de primaire waterkeringen beschikbaar. Ongeveer eenderde van de meer dan 3.700 km dijken en duinen voldoet niet aan de normen. Er bestaat dus een aanzienlijke opgave om de keringen te laten voldoen aan de huidige normen. Deze krijgt vorm in het (nieuwe) hoogwater...
Conference Paper
This paper presents the development of a semi-probabilistic method for armour layer design of rubble mound breakwaters, which is based on the use of safety factors. The objective is to introduce an approach that is both attractive to designers and sufficiently reliable when a high degree of uncertainty is involved in the design process. The main fo...
Article
Full-text available
Current design codes like the Eurocode use safety or reliability classes to assign target reliabilities to different types of structures or structural members according to the potential consequences of failure. That, in essence, is a risk-based criterion. A wide range of structures is designed with such codes, and distinction is made between reliab...
Thesis
Full-text available
One of the failure mechanisms of a rubble mound breakwater is the failure of its armour layer. In order to determine the stability of an armour layer, the design load has to be defined, which is in fact the wave that attacks the structure. Being a highly stochastic phenomenon, the wave action is not easily defined, while there is always some uncert...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper the reliability analysis of flood defence systems and the probabilistic flood risk analysis approach are outlined. The application of probabilistic design methods offers the designer a way to unify the design of engineering structures, processes and management systems. For this reason there is a grow-ing interest in the use of these m...
Article
Uncertainty is a fascinating subject, spanning a wide range of scientific and practicalknowledge domains. Economics, physics, decision theory and risk assessment are its traditional locations, while more recently it has also become common in modelling, numerical analysis, advanced statistics and computer science. However, the study of uncertainty h...
Article
Dat het waterkeringsysteem heeft gefaald weet bijna iedereen, maar wat de redenen ervan waren, is veel minder bekend. De opgetreden waterstanden hadden volgens Nederlandse maatstaven gekeerd kunnen worden. Het blijkt dat het waterkeringsysteem voor de ramp al problemen had.
Article
Full-text available
One of the characteristic failures of the flood defense system in New Orleans occurred at the 17th Street Canal. The concrete wall and its extended sheet piles not only failed to withstand against the flood but it was also flushed away by the flood by horizontal sliding. The authors of this paper believe that a probabilistic approach can provide a...
Article
The two failures of the London Avenue Canal floodwalls contributed largely to the flooding of central New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina. In this paper, both failures are analyzed and compared to each other since the flood defenses are both located on permeable soils. Photo's observation and calculations are used for the analysis. Both failures a...
Article
Within the Flood Management and Mitigation Program (FMMP) of the Mekong River Commission (MRC), flood forecasting is one of the core activities. Up to now, the forecasts are being made with a Streamflow Synthesis and River Routing (SSARR) model and with regression models. At this moment new model are being developed, based on a combination of URBS...
Article
De Jonge Deltacommissie is een open en onafhankelijk netwerk dat bestaat uit alle jonge professionals die ideehebben ingezonden om Nederland waterveilig te houden. De Jonge Deltacommissie zal na het uitbrengen van het advies van de Deltacommissie een vervolg krijgen. De Jonge Deltacommissie wil dat Nederland de komende eeuwen goed beschermd is tege...
Article
Full-text available
Naar aanleiding van ons onderzoek geven we de volgende aanbevelingen aan de Deltacommissie: 1. De financi effecten van het aanpassen van waterkeringen zijn bepaald bij specifiek klimaatscenario. We bevelen aan om deze effecten ook kwantitatief in beeld te brengen voor andere scenarios. 2. Voor maatschappelijke acceptatie van het versterken van wate...

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Projects

Projects (5)
Project
Research into different aspects (i.e. reliability, engineering, governance, law, ecology) of the new risk-based safety standards for flood protection in the Netherlands. Goal is to support the Dutch Flood Protection Program with applied research that can improve the efficiency and quality of the ~1600 kilometers of dike reinforcement in the coming decades.
Project
To enable accurate reliability estimates of the piping failure mode for dikes, including the incorporation of field observations and monitoring data through Bayesian updating.
Project
To provide guidance and tools to enable practitioners to use reliability analysis in geotechnical engineering to its full potential. To establish rules and standards in codes of practice for acceptable and best practices. To showcase the benefits and limitations in case studies and examples.