Vladimir Nikitović

• PhD in Demography
• Principal Research Fellow, Head of the Center for Demographic Research at National Institute of Social Sciences Belgrade

The decline in completed fertility among young female generations has happened only in cities, which widened the existing difference between urban and other settlements. This suggests that the changes in socio-economic determinants of childbearing in the last several decades had by far a more important influence on women in urban areas. It is only...

As census data play a significant role in analyzing population changes in Serbia makes this study important given the lack of a statistical population register and a series of demographic, socio-economic and other challenges facing Serbian society. The content is conceived so to bring into particular focus the regional aspects of demographic proces...

Extreme temperatures and heatwaves are recognized as one of the deadliest weather-related hazards. The first of its kind in the Balkans region, this study explores the effects of heatwave timing, duration, and intensity on mortality in Serbia. Using daily all-cause mortality data and mean temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) evalu...

This paper represents the first contribution to the research of gender differences in the cohort fertility patterns in Serbia. We used the specially processed results of the 2022 Census that include one-year cohorts of women and men born in the 1940-1982 and 1940-1977 periods, respectively. Using parity progression rates, we examined the changes an...

This paper discusses the perspectives of demographic processes in Western Balkans until 2100 in relation to the different development of socioeconomic conditions. High emigration, as a distinctive demographic feature of the region, was considered from the viewpoint of the human development index. Recent population projections by three international...

The decades-long low fertility of the population of Serbia is one of the biggest social challenges and a key component of population dynamics in the long term. Recent research suggests that the reduced progression to first and second child poses an increasingly significant challenge to the recovery of the total fertility rate despite the widespread...

Despite the already notorious concern of the general public about global overpopulation due to the continuous growth of the world’s population, the greater part of Eastern and Southeastern Europe makes the first world region to face depopulation in the 21st century. According to numerous forecasts of international agencies, depopulation along with...

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better m...

National Human Development Report for Serbia, dealing with depopulation and policy responses.

Depopulation and human development in Serbia

What would demographic future of Serbia look like if the recently adopted pronatalist policy became successful? How the change in migration patterns related to the Serbia’s expected EU accession can affect population dynamics of the country? These emerging demographic issues are discussed in the framework of the scenario-based population projection...

Serbia, together with most of its neighbours – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, belongs to the world countries experiencing highest population decline. Its total population has been declining since the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia when the rate of natural change turned negative. The rising net emigration speed...

Most comprehensive work on the Geography of Serbia in English. Highly illustrated volume written by an experienced team of 41 authors. Integrates physical and human aspects of Serbian geography and brings them uniquely into a regional context within the Balkans and Europe. The book offers a comprehensive regional geography synthesis of the most im...

Identifying and Promoting the Linkage Between Fertility Policies in Serbia and the United Nations Agenda 2030, research published in No. 74 of the quarterly bulletin "Demografski pregled" (Demographic Digest), issued by the Ministry of Labour, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs.

The main objective of this book was to consider the medium-term (2018-2050) effects of the potential implementation of recently adopted policy measures in the area of birth stimulation in Serbia as well as the effects of expected socio-economic changes related to the country’s EU accession. For that purpose, we made and interpreted population proje...

Gaps in comprehension of demographic change in the region of ex-Yugoslavia after 1990, caused by a lack of reliable data series, frequent change of borders, and distinctive historical and cultural tradition in comparison to other post-communist societies, motivated us to contribute to the understanding of the spatial diffusion of recent profound fe...

Current demographic research increasingly emphasizes the role of psychological and subjective factors in childbearing decisions. Life satisfaction is one of those factors that could possibly play a role in family planning throughout the reproductive span. Given that transition to parenthood often leads to changes in subjective well-being, life sati...

Current demographic research increasingly emphasizes the role of psychological and subjective factors in childbearing decisions. Life satisfaction is one of those factors that could possibly play a role in family planning throughout the reproductive span. Given that transition to parenthood often leads to changes in subjective well-being, life sati...

Political issues in Kosovo were strongly related to its population dynamics during the twentieth century, above all due to the "demographic explosion" induced by the huge lag in fertility transition if compared to the rest of Europe. However, soon after the turn of the century, the total fertility rate in Kosovo has dropped to about the replacement...

Current research of the second demographic transition (SDT) in Serbia is largely focused on its sociological dimension, particularly on changes related to family formation. On the other hand, understanding the spatial dimension of this process can help in understanding its further expansion, but also its nature outside the countries in which it was...

Since the mid-1960s, Serbian citizens residing abroad were typically guest workers in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France. At the beginning of 21st century, Italy joined this group almost unexpectedly, becoming the fourth most popular migrant destination for Serbian citizens. It is usually a very good idea to compare sources from both sides –...

This study considers the spatial and temporal dimensions of demographic trends in Serbia between 1961 and 2010. Using appropriate spatial autocorrelation statistics, spatial patterns of common demographic indicators including changes in population size, the rate of natural increase and infant mortality rate are investigated across municipalities of...

After the dissolution of the socialist Yugoslavia (SFRY) in 1991, the quality and availability of demographic and migration statistics in the region as a whole, and especially in some of its parts are deteriorated. In addition, census rounds are not being held regularly throughout the region as of 1991. Thus, producing population projections has be...

Intense industrialization of Serbia during the period of socialist Yugoslavia induced voluminous internal migration, mainly from villages to the fast-growing industrial centers, which resulted in a disturbed sex composition of the current population in the prime reproductive ages (20–39 years) at the settlement level of the country. As a result, bo...

The emergence of the theory of the second demographic transition in the mid-1980s has disclosed that Europe is stepping into a whole new demographic era. There has been a change in social norms that determine the demographic behaviour of individuals, but also objectives of population policy. Based on the theme that dominated scientific discussions...

If we want to understand the deeper truth, or intend to interpret phenomena through the perception of a specific population, a more holistic perspective might be necessary. By applying foresight exercise, some new patterns might be discovered and shifts in study aspects inhibited. Such an approach intends to give meaning to future perceptions, expe...

From the demographic point of view, the future of the population of Serbia is relatively certain at least in the next three to four decades. Furthermore, the decreasing and ageing of the population are considered to be very certain processes in the much longer term. Although replacement fertility is an essential condition for long-term survival of...

The two post-socialist countries - Croatia and Serbia belong to demographically oldest countries in the world mainly due to decades long below-replacement fertility accompanied by significant rise of life expectancy at birth as well as by permanent emigration of people in the most vital age. The process was specially intensified during the last thr...

Demographic Future of Serbia from a Different Angle Based on the assessment of the empirical errors in the official population forecasts of Serbia, the paper shows why forecast users might want a change of the current official concept. The article consists of three parts. The first gives a brief chronological overview of the methods and hypotheses...

Probabilistička prognoza stanovništva Srbije do 2100. izrađena je na bazi projekcionog modela korišćenog za izradu publikacije Izgledi svetskog stanovništva, revizija za 2012, u izdanju Odeljenja za stanovništvo Ujedinjenih nacija. U odnosu na projekcije u izdanju UN, izvršene su korekcije ulaznih vremenskih serija demografskih indikatora odnosno p...

Proteklo je ravno 50 godina od kada je, neposredno po svom osnivanju, Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka, počeo sa redovnim objavljivanjem časopisa Stanovništvo. Time je ovo ne samo najstariji demografski časopis na Balkanu, već i jedan od onih sa najdužom tradicijom u oblasti nauke o stanovništvu. Akademik Miloš Macura j...

This country report was developed in the framework of SEEMIG – Managing Migration and its Effects in SEE – Transnational Actions towards Evidence-based Strategies. SEEMIG is a strategic project funded by the European Union’s South-East Europe Programme. Project code: SEEMIG - SEE/C/0006/4.1/X The country report was prepared within the SEEMIG activi...

From the demographic point of view, the future of Serbia's population is relatively certain at least in the next three to four decades. However, the decreasing and ageing of the population are considered to be very certain processes in the much longer term. Although replacement fertility is an essential condition for long-term survival of any popul...

Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively...

The principal aim of this study was to prepare a forecast and a set of simulations for the population and labour force in Serbia over the period from 2011to 2041 and to investigate the impact of the changes in migration, fertility and economic activity regimes on the population and labour force resources of Serbia in the medium term, namely, thirty...

A new approach, combining functional data analysis and principal components decomposition in order to forecasting demographic rates, introduced recently by Hyndman and his associates, is tested on official data series of Serbian age-specific fertility rates available for period 1950-2009. The original concept of the method with its extensions and i...

Zbornik "Migracije, krize i ratni sukobi na Balkanu s kraja 20. veka" sadrži izbor prevedenih radova sa međunarodnog naučnog skupa koji je pod naslovom "Migracije, krize i nedavni ratni sukobi na Balkanu / Migrations, crises et conflits récents dans les Balkans / Migrations, Crises and Recent Conflicts in the Balkans" održan u Beogradu od 27. do 29...

One of the effects of highly elemental urbanization in Serbia reflects itself in the disturbed sex composition of most vital age groups at the settlement level of the country. As a result, both agrarian zones of young men surplus and urban oases of young women surplus jointly reinforce processes of demographic aging and poverty in Serbia despite th...

Population projections are necessary in process of making new strategies and regulations in numerous fields that arrange social and economic relations in a country or region. Concretely, they are widely used for planning in big government systems such as the school, pension and health care systems. Similarly to national offices in other countries,...

Serbia still hosts the largest number of forced migrants in Europe. The paper examines the impact of the refugee influx from newly formed states on the territory of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) into Serbia on the future demographic trends of the country. Examination of the past population projections of Serbia confirmed that...

The paper presents the impact of demographic ageing on the size and age composition of the labour force in Serbia. With an unchanged rate of activity, demographic ageing will lead to a reduction in the size of work force. After leaving the working age of baby-boom generations after 2010 a continuous decline of working age population is expected. Ev...

Uvod Jedna od glavnih implikacija današnje nepovoljne starosne strukture stanovništva Srbije 1 ogleda se u ekonomskom pritisku koji radni kontingent trpi od strane brzorastuće populacije starih. Porastu pritiska dodatno doprinosi smanjenje radne populacije, naročito njenog mla dela (stari 20-44 godine), koji je ujedno i glavni nosilac reproduktivne...

The question whether migration will be central demographic issue in the future of Serbia is assessed through probabilistic population projection. Therefore, the problem on formulating international migration hypothesis, specifically estimation of uncertainty attached to future migration flow, is highlighted. For that purpose, experiences from proba...

The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear how likely it is that the interval between these variants will cover the actual population size. Besides, variants of deterministic projections are internally inconsistent in the sense that they misrep...

Odstupanja rezultata projekcija stanovništva od stvarnih vrednosti javljaju se jer naše razumevanje demografskih procesa nije savršeno" N. Keyfitz U proteklih skoro dvadeset godina demografi koji se bave unapre tehnike izrade projekcija stanovništva pokušavaju da pokažu da se već decenijama tradicionalni način pripreme i tumačenja projekcija od str...

Based on the example of the forecast of the population of Central Serbia for the 2005-2032 period, the basic probabilistic concept in forecasting the trends of demographic components of population development have been presented. The stochastic element of forecast is based on the analysis of empirical forecast errors of corresponding indicators of...

After five decades of insufficient reproduction of Vojvodina’s and Central Serbia’s population, the process of demographic ageing, came into the focus of the broadest public at last. Current Serbia’s population (without Kosovo and Metohija’s population) belongs to the group of the oldest populations in the world according to a number of indicators...

The quality and exactness of population projections is an important issue not only for their numerous users but for all authors of these demographic calculations who try to increase their utility value. The question of the exactness of population projections of smaller territorial entities are especially sensitive and for smaller time periods as we...

This paper examines selectivity of refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina in Serbia with respect to certain demographic and socio-economic structures. Analyses indicated that the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of these refugees are significantly more favourable than those of other refugees in Serbia and those in the place of origin. T...

In this paper basic indicators of demographic change of Danube-Morava Corridor municipalities were analyzed on the basis of definite results of censuses 1948-2002. Almost half of population of Vojvodina and Central Serbia live in Danube-Morava Corridor municipalities. It is characteristic that these municipalities in all of three big macro-regions...