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Introduction
Publications
Publications (30)
O artigo buscou estimar uma função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), para verificar se tal função é sensível à inclusão do conteúdo informacional dos índices de commodities e se a inclusão de fatores contidos nos índices de commodities melhora o grau de ajustamento da função de reação. Para esta avaliação, foram feitas previsões dentro (i...
Resumo Esse trabalho tem como objetivo discutir as metodologias hedônicas mais difundidas para a construção de índices de preços e aplicá-las para uma base de dados fiscais do município de Belo Horizonte, entre 1995 e 2012. Os resultados para os índices de preços pelos diversos métodos hedônicos estimados registraram uma intensa valorização imobili...
This study examines the importance of using appropriate inflation measures in the estimation of a life care plan value. Using data from 1989 through 2018, we compare medical inflation rates measured by the Consumer Price Index Medical (CPI Medical) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Health (PCE Health) price index while discussing the reason...
Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar índice de preços hedônicos-quantílicos para o mercado de apartamentos em Belo Horizonte, entre 1995 e 2012. A técnica de regressão quantílica foi utilizada pelo fato de o mercado imobiliário ser segmentado. Os resultados indicam que até 2004 a valorização imobiliária foi modesta. Contribuíram para esse...
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The economics literature related to the financial system seeks to define the concepts of financial stability, systemic risk and macroprudential instruments for the purpose of drafting a policy that essentially "leans against the wind", that is, a policy that monitors macroeconomic vulnerabilities and combats system...
The article analyzes the possibilities for creating fiscal space for public investment in infrastructure in Brazil. We present the institutional framework under which fiscal policy is conceived and the budget characteristics that have limited the government´s capacity to invest: high participation of earmarked expenditure, reliance on tax revenues,...
We investigate the existence of an asymmetry in the exchange rate pass-through to the Brazilian consumer price index (CPI). Using a decomposition of the exchange rate series, into appreciations and depreciations of the Brazilian currency during the 1999–2016 period, we estimate Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) models with different identify...
This paper estimates quantile hedonic price indexes for apartments in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 1995-2012.
From an urban economic point of view, the real estate is one example of a segmented market and for this
reason we choose the quantile regression approach. The several result suggests that before 2004, when there
was a lack of institutional mark...
This paper analyses the motives for foreign exchange interventions in Brazil in recent years. Using monthly data, we estimated the effects of volatility and exchange rate misalignments on the probability of intervention. Our results indicate that, as formally stated by the Brazilian Central Bank, foreign interventions have reacted to excess volatil...
Esse trabalho tem como objetivos discutir as metodologias hedônicas para a construção de índices de preços aplicá-las para uma base de dados do município de Belo Horizonte, entre 1995 e 2012. Os resultados apontam uma intensa valorização imobiliária em Belo Horizonte, a partir de 2005, impulsionada pelo aumento na oferta de crédito imobiliário, que...
This paper investigates a possible non-linearity in the pass-through of the exchange rate to the Brazilian consumer price index. Using a decomposition of the exchange rate series, into appreciations and depreciations, for the period of 1999-2013, the paper estimates a sequence of SVAR models with different identifying restrictions. The results are...
title>Abstract
This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function for Brazil and investigates how the government's fiscal reaction has changed over time when controlling for cyclical variations in output and the relative participation of indexed debt. Using monthly data since 1991, we estimate a rolling reaction function with a one observation step a...
Private investment: an empirical analysis for Brazil - This study identifies the determinants of private investment in Brazil over the period of 1970 to 2005. The paper presents the main investment theories, and recent developments of these theories, as well as how they can be applied to Brazilian data. The results indicate that increases in income...
This study identifies the determinants of private investment in Brazil over the period of 1970 to 2005. The paper presents the main investment theories, and recent developments of these theories, as well as how they can be applied to Brazilian data. The results indicate that increases in income and economic activity have positively influenced priva...
This article presents evidence on the interest channel of the monetary policy for the Brazilian economy of the 1990s analyzing the effects of an unexpected change in the baseline interest rate on output, prices and the exchange rate in a vector autoregression system. Our main results are: a) a tightening in the monetary policy affects economic acti...
Resumo O presente estudo identifica os determinantes do investimento privado no Brasil para o período compreendido entre 1970 e 2005. O artigo apresenta as principais teorias de investimento, os desenvolvimentos recentes e as principais aplicações para os dados brasileiros. Os resultados indicam que aumentos na renda e na atividade econômica influe...
Resumo Este pequeno artigo discute as condições para sustentabilidade fiscal definida como uma relação estável entre dívida e produto. Mostra-se que as condições comumente utilizadas para definir sustentabilidade, notadamente uma taxa de juro real menor que a taxa de crescimento da renda, não são suficientes para uma relação dívida/PIB estável quan...
This note discusses the conditions for a sustainable fiscal policy defined as one that will result in a stable debt/income ratio. It is shown that the usually evoked condition for sustainability, that the real rate of interest be smaller than the rate of the income growth, is not a sufficient one when the government has access to revenue from seign...
This paper analyses the sustainability of the Brazilian federal fiscal policy by examining the responses of the government budget surplus to variations of the debt-GDP ratio. The approach to assess sustainability, originally proposed by Bohn (1998), circumvents the problems present in traditional sustainability tests based on statistical properties...
Este artigo investiga a sustentabilidade da dívida mobiliária brasileira usando dados trimestrais de 1981 a 1998. Uma dívida é considerada sustentável se a restrição orçamentária governamental é respeitada intertemporalmente. A sustentabilidade da dívida mobiliária federal é testada através da estacionaridade da razão dívida/PIB ao redor da média z...
This paper investigates the sustainability of the Brazilian federal domestic debt using quarterly data from 1981 to 1998. A debt is considered sustainable if the government's budget is intertemporally balanced. Sustainability is tested through the mean-zero stationarity of the discounted debt/GDP ratio with standard unit root tests and the null hyp...
This paper investigates how the finances of the Brazilian federal government responded to innovations in the debts of the most indebted states, S�o Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul. Using monthly data from 1981 to 1998, a vector autoregression system (VAR) is estimated to investigate the relationship between the federal gov...
This note discusses the concept of 'inflation adjusted nominal deficit' proposed by Robert Barro in light of a stock-flow consistent real deficit. It is argued that the calculation proposed by the author violates the principle of stock-flow consistency and leads one to the erroneous interpretation that a rise in the rate of inflation decreases the...
This article discusses the institutional mechanisms which characterized the degree of the independence of the Brazilian Central Bank since its creation in 1964 until the implementation of the Real Plan in 1994. The relationship between the Brazilian Treasury and the Central Bank is analyzed from a historical point of view and two institutional aspe...
This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political auton...
This paper investigates how the Brazilian federal domestic debt responded to innovations in fiscal and financial components of the government's budget constraint. Using monthly data from 1981:01 to 1996:12, a parsimonious model is selected to describe the federal domestic debt and a vector autoreregression system (VAR) is estimated to investigate t...
El propósito de este libro es presentar los resultados del proyecto sobre “Espacio Fiscal para el Crecimiento en el MERCOSUR” que llevaron a cabo tres instituciones de investigación pertenecientes a la RED MERCOSUR (CEDES, CINVE y UFRJ). Los estudios realizados en el marco del proyecto tuvieron por objeto principal evaluar el espacio fiscal para el...
This article presents a comparative study of income elasticities for Brazilian exports to its main commercial partners. Using quarterly data of several exporting industries between 1986 and 2007 and cointegration analysis, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is estimated to provide the income elasticities for each relevant industry and i...
Resumo : Esse artigo analisa os determinantes do investimento privado no Brasil a partir de dados setoriais do período 1996 a 2005. As séries de formação bruta de capital fixo, comumente utilizadas nos estudos empíricos sobre o investimento agregado, eliminam os ajustamentos irregulares das unidades produtivas individuais devido ao processo de agre...