Vitor Silva

Vitor Silva
GEM, EUCENTRE, University of Aveiro · Seismic Risk

PhD

About

141
Publications
110,729
Reads
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3,833
Citations
Citations since 2017
94 Research Items
3443 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230200400600800
20172018201920202021202220230200400600800

Publications

Publications (141)
Article
Full-text available
Seismic risk assessment of building portfolios has been traditionally performed using empirical ground motion models, and scalar fragility and vulnerability functions. The advent of machine learning algorithms in earthquake engineering and ground motion modelling has demonstrated promising advantages. The aim of the present study is to explore the...
Article
Full-text available
The calculation of the spatial distribution of ground motion is one of the most important steps in earthquake scenarios. The advancements in machine learning algorithms and the release of new ground motion data can enable improvements in the reliability and accuracy of this component. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ground motion mo...
Article
Full-text available
Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This risk is exacerbated by city expansion, which may obscure signs of active faulting. Here, we estimate the risk to Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due to realistic earthquake scenarios based on historic earthquakes in the region and an improved...
Article
Liquefaction causes damage and economic losses that can exceed the impact caused by ground shaking in earthquakes. However, probabilistic models to predict liquefaction occurrence on a regional scale are scarce and uncertain. We developed a non-parametric model using a database with more than 40 events worldwide. We trained and tested a supervised...
Article
The Sendai Framework proposes recording disaster losses from hazard events between 2015 and 2030 to monitor the progress towards reduction targets to curtail risk worldwide. In the case of earthquakes, relying on losses over 15 years is unlikely to yield sufficient evidence to support risk mitigation strategies. In this study we propose a general m...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The early identification of areas of high seismic risk remains one of the most important tools for the design and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. Current seismic risk assessment measures predominantly rely on having separated models for seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which are then combined following a probabilistic or ev...
Article
Full-text available
In the last five centuries, Portugal was affected by several earthquakes of strong magnitude (M > 7) that caused widespread destruction and a significant death toll. Due to the geographical distribution of moderate-to-strong magnitude events along the Tagus Valley and Southwest of the country, an earthquake early warning system might potentially pr...
Chapter
A new European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20) was recently released to the scientific community (http://risk.efehr.org). This model combines the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), a regional model of site response based on proxy data (topography and geology), an exposure model describing the distribution of building classes for 44 countries, and...
Chapter
Factors such as the increase in the global population, economic growth, climate change, and aging infrastructure are contributing to the increase in the impact caused by earthquakes. Despite the overwhelming evidence of the dynamic nature of earthquake risk, current disaster risk management is mostly informed by static risk information. Consequentl...
Article
We performed benefit-cost analysis to identify optimum retrofitting interventions for the two most vulnerable building typologies in Central America, unreinforced masonry and adobe, considering the direct costs due to building damage and the indirect costs associated with the injured and fatalities. We reviewed worldwide retrofitting techniques, se...
Preprint
Full-text available
This article presents a framework for semi-automated building damage assessment due to earthquakes from remote sensing data and other supplementary datasets, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. The framework integrates high-resolution building inventory data with earthquake ground shaking intensity maps and surface...
Article
Observations from past destructive earthquakes indicate that indirect economic losses can greatly exceed the direct economic losses. However, the influence of indirect losses is often neglected in seismic risk studies due to the complexity associated with their evaluation, as well as the fact that direct losses tend to gather public attention due t...
Article
Full-text available
A uniform and comprehensive classification system, often referred to as taxonomy, is fundamental for the characterization of building portfolios for natural hazard risk assessment. A building taxonomy characterizes assets according to attributes that can influence the likelihood of damage due to the effects of natural hazards. Within the scope of t...
Article
Several destructive natural hazards have occurred throughout Africa over the past century, yet few comprehensive exposure models exist for the continent. The high population growth and rapid pace of urbanization within many African countries entail a significant potential for increased economic and human losses, particularly where substantial urban...
Preprint
Full-text available
Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This risk is exacerbated by city expansion, which may obscure signs of active faulting. Here we estimate the risk to Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due to realistic earthquake scenarios based on historic earthquakes in the region and improved know...
Article
Full-text available
Seismic fragility and vulnerability assessment is an essential step in the evaluation of probabilistic seismic risk. Ideally, models developed and calibrated for the building portfolio of interest would be readily available. However, the lack of damage data and insufficient analytical studies lead to a paucity of fragility and vulnerability models,...
Article
Full-text available
Fragility functions are fundamental for the assessment of seismic safety of structures or the loss assessment of a portfolio of assets. The present paper describes a procedure to derive fragility functions representative of Portuguese reinforced concrete precast buildings. This goal was achieved following an analytical methodology considering the r...
Article
Full-text available
The spatial resolution of exposure data has a substantial impact on the accuracy and reliability of seismic risk estimates. While several studies have investigated the influence of the geographical detail of urban exposure data in earthquake loss models, there is also a need to understand its implications at the regional scale. This study investiga...
Article
Full-text available
A simplified procedure is developed to consider the azimuthal orientation of buildings when estimating seismic risk. Two square-plan reinforced concrete building models are considered as a testbed, one with similar and one with dissimilar properties along the two principal horizontal axes. The fragility of both structures is analysed using a set of...
Article
The incorporation of machine learning (ML) algorithms in earthquake engineering can improve existing methodologies and enable new frameworks to solve complex problems. In the present study, the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the derivation of seismic vulnerability models for building portfolios is explored. Large sets of ground motion...
Article
This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Central America, which is used to evaluate the indicators of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components of the model were established using a uniform methodology for all the countries. Earthquake risk is expressed accordin...
Article
Full-text available
Vulnerability functions describe the expected loss for a given ground shaking intensity level and are an essential component in probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This manuscript presents a novel open-source platform for the derivation of analytical fragility and vulnerability models, covering state-of-the-art methodologies, and addressing crit...
Conference Paper
Vulnerability functions are analytical functions that describe, in a probabilistic manner, the performance of a given typology as a function of the seismic intensity, and are a key parameter for the seismic risk analysis of structures. This paper describes a study carried out to derive, for the first time, fragility functions representative of the...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The last seismic risk maps developed for Italy (Dolce et al. 2020) are still affected by the shortcoming of not including site geological effects, limiting the assessment to the rock type of soil that might lead to unconservative results in the estimated losses. In this work, for the quantification of site effects, we used the results obtained by M...
Conference Paper
The evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of existing structures for regional risk analysis is characterized by sources of uncertainty due to insufficient data (i.e. epistemic) and sources of variability that cannot be reduced (i.e. aleatory). These sources of uncertainty are particularly important for the evaluation of fragility of masonry struc...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Adobe is a common earth-based construction material that is used widely across the world. These buildings are known to exhibit low seismic resistance capacity due to their brittle behaviour, thus making them vulnerable to ground shaking and more prone to structural damage that potentially causes human fatalities. The Portuguese Adobe building stock...
Article
Full-text available
Major faults of the Tien Shan, Central Asia, have long repeat times, but fail in large (Mw 7+) earthquakes. In addition, there may be smaller, buried faults off the major faults which are not properly characterized or even recognized as active. These all pose hazard to cities along the mountain range front such as Almaty, Kazakhstan. Here, we explo...
Chapter
Simplified relationships to compute the period of vibration are valuable to estimate seismic loads during the design process of new structures, in the assessment of the structural vulnerability of existing buildings, or in the estimation of earthquake losses of large portfolios of assets. Nonetheless, these are frequently region specific and with l...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The relation between the response of an elastic single degree of freedom oscillator subject to seismic shaking and the seismological characteristics of the input waveforms represented in terms of the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) has become a topic of growing interest in the engineering seismological community in recent years. As simulations of...
Article
Full-text available
The exposure model is a key component of a seismic risk model, which captures the spatial distribution of population and built assets along with their structural characteristics and valuation that are required for seismic risk assessment. Current and available exposure models for China have various limitations that make them less suitable for use i...
Article
Full-text available
Adobe construction represents 5.3% of the total Portuguese building stock according to the latest National Housing Census. The distribution of these adobe buildings is scattered across the country, with higher density in the central region and in Algarve in the south, where the seismic hazard is highest. A large proportion of these buildings are st...
Article
Full-text available
As part of the development of a European Seismic Risk Model 2020 (ESRM20), the spatial and temporal evolution of seismic design across Europe has been studied in order to better classify reinforced concrete buildings (which represent more than 30% of the approximately 145 million residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Europe) and map t...
Preprint
Full-text available
Vulnerability functions describe the expected loss for a given ground shaking intensity level and are an essential component in probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This manuscript presents a novel open-source platform for the derivation of analytical fragility and vulnerability models, covering state-of-the-art methodologies, and addressing crit...
Article
According to the latest national housing census, masonry buildings represent more than half of the Portuguese buildings stock and houses over 40% of the population. Due to their low tensile strength, massive weight, and inadequate maintenance, these buildings are prone to damage due to ground shaking. In this study, a charac- terisation of the geom...
Article
This study proposes a framework to forecast the spatial distribution of population and residential buildings for the assessment of future disaster risk. The approach accounts for the number, location, and characteristics of future assets considering sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in several time-dependent variables. The value of the...
Article
For seismic risk assessments, ground shaking is generally considered the primary cause of building damage. However, earthquake-induced liquefaction can also create significant structural damage and losses. Predicting the expected degree of damage in structures exposed to ground failure due to liquefaction is thus essential for seismic risk assessme...
Article
Full-text available
Probabilistic earthquake loss models are widely used in the (re)insurance industry to assess the seismic risk of portfolios of assets and to inform pricing mechanisms for (re)insurance contracts, as well as by international and national organizations with the remit to assess and reduce disaster risk. Such models include components characterizing th...
Article
This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazar...
Article
Full-text available
In risk assessment, the exposure component describes the elements exposed to the natural hazards and susceptible to damage or loss, while the vulnerability component defines the likelihood to incur damage or loss conditional on a given level of hazard intensity. In this article, we propose a novel adaptive approach to exposure modeling which exploi...
Conference Paper
A European seismic risk model will be released in 2020 as an output of the European Horizon 2020 SERA project (www.sera-eu.org), building also upon the research efforts of many previous projects (e.g. LESSLOSS, SYNER-G, NERA, SHARE). The main risk metrics that will be released with the model include national and sub-national maps of average annual...
Article
The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic caused a human and economic impact of unprecedented magnitude in contemporary history. In an effort to reduce the rate of infection , most governments implemented measures to increase social distancing and to strengthen the capacity of the healthcare system. The occurrence of earthquakes coincident with the pandemic may p...
Article
In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic seismic...
Article
Full-text available
This study presents a seismic risk assessment and a set of earthquake scenarios for the residential building stock of the three largest metropolitan centers of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín and Cali (with 8.0, 2.5, and 2.4 million inhabitants, respectively). A uniform methodology was followed for the development of the seismic hazard, vulnerability, a...
Article
The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconne...
Article
Building exposure and vulnerability models for seismic risk assessment have been the focus of a number of European projects in recent years, but there has never been a concerted effort among the research community to produce a uniform European risk model. The European Commission’s Horizon 2020 SERA project has a work package that is dedicated to th...
Article
Full-text available
More than half of all the people in the world now live in dense urban centres. The rapid expansion of cities, particularly in low-income nations, has enabled the economic and social development of millions of people. However, many of these cities are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory, raising...
Article
Full-text available
Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy info...
Article
Full-text available
This study presents an exposure model for the residential building stock in the Middle East, developed for the purposes of multi-hazard risk assessment. The exposure model provides the number of buildings, number of dwellings and population in 12 countries with their corresponding physical characteristics, geographical location and economic value....
Article
Purpose Using risk-related data often require a significant amount of upfront work to collect, extract and transform data. In addition, the lack of a consistent data structure hinders the development of tools that can be used with more than one set of data. The purpose of this paper is to report on an effort to solve these problems through the deve...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This study describes the development of the various components of the European Seismic Risk Model 2020 (ESRM2020) which will be able to generate, using open-source software developed by the GEM Foundation (the
Poster
Full-text available
The European Seismic Risk Service (https://eu-risk.eucentre.it) is part of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EFEHR, www.efehr.org), a non-profit network of organisations and community resources aimed at advancing earthquake hazard and risk assessment in the European-Mediterranean area. We provide access to European exposure an...
Article
The majority of the existing seismic risk studies use a deterministic approach to define vulnerability functions, despite the well-recognized large variability in the probability of loss ratio conditional on ground shaking intensities. This study explored a statistical framework to simulate this variability, considering the existing correlation bet...
Article
The lack of empirical data regarding earthquake damage or losses has propelled the development of dozens of analytical methodologies for the derivation of fragility and vulnerability functions. Each method will naturally have its strengths and weaknesses, which will consequently affect the associated risk estimates. With the purpose of sharing know...
Article
Full-text available
Iran is located in one of the most seismically active regions of the world. This high seismicity combined with densely populated regions has led to several destructive earthquakes in the past, such as the M7.4 Tabas (1978), M7.4 Manjil–Rudbar (1990), or the M6.6 Bam (2003). Seismic hazard and risk assessment can provide critical information to deci...
Article
Full-text available
More than half of all the people in the world now live in dense urban centres. The rapid expansion of cities, particularly in low-income nations, has enabled the economic and social development of millions of people. However, many of these cities are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory, raising...
Article
Full-text available
his study presents a seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of the residential building stock in Costa Rica. It proposes a new exposure model using housing census data, public construction statistics, and private construction information to quantify and characterize the residential building portfolio. A complete vulnerability catalogue is establ...
Article
The evaluation of the potential impact of strong seismic events shortly after their occurrence is a critical step to organise emergency response and consequently minimise the adverse effects of earthquakes. The estimation of the impact from earthquakes considering the observed ground shaking from past events can be useful for the calibration of exi...
Article
Full-text available
Earthquakes have been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of monuments throughout human history. Due to their size, conservation state, and lack of seismic provisions, monuments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of geological hazards. The first step toward the mitigation of the earthquake threat consists of understanding the existi...
Article
The shape of design spectra, traditionally based on regions characterized by constant displacement, constant velocity, and constant acceleration, has been discussed from a conceptual point of view by Calvi (2018). In the same study, a formulation for the definition of the design spectra relying on four parameters was proposed. Predictive models are...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The understanding of earthquake risk is the first step towards the development and implementation of disaster risk reduction measures. However, in many countries, especially the countries of the developing world, earthquake risk models either do not exist or are publicly inaccessible. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners ha...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The seismic risk assessment of building portfolios has benefitted from the continued improvement in the modelling and characterization of epistemic uncertainties in seismic hazard. Logic-trees have become a standard feature of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments, reflecting model-to-model uncertainty through alternative models with di...