Vincent Marchau

Delft University Of Technology & Radboud University

Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, po...

Policymakers need to make policies for an uncertain future, and policy analysts assist policymakers in choosing preferred courses of action. Despite a longstanding recognition that the futures field can contribute a great deal to policy analysis, futures work is not used to its full potential as an element of policy analysis. This is partly due to...

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) involves integration of various forms of public and private transport services into a single mobility service, accessible on demand. For MaaS to become successful, different suppliers of transport services have to cooperate in alliances in order to bring new benefits in the short and long term. Past experience demonstra...

Education is one of the most essential elements of our society, which is why it has been the subject of dozens of foresight studies. What is currently missing however is a clear picture of the possible roles ICT can play in education. Through a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the large number of diverse studies, this article sheds light on...

Given the innovative nature of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), various uncertainties are surrounding the possibilities for implementing MaaS. This includes uncertainties about alternative MaaS-system functionalities, about how the implementation of alternative MaaS systems might affect the overall transport system performance and about the preference...

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is an innovative transport concept that combines a range of transport modes and services to provide a user-orientated service via a single interface. Since its emergence, MaaS has drawn increasing interest within and beyond the transport sector for its potential as an innovative and potentially effective solution to urb...

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is an innovative transport concept that combines a range of transport modes and services to provide a user-orientated service via a single interface. Since its emergence, MaaS has drawn increasing interest within and beyond the transport sector for its potential as an innovative and potentially effective solution to urb...

The prospects of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) as a potential solution for mobility has inspired a high level of interest from various transport sectors. Nevertheless, the concept is still in its early stage of development with limited evidence to support its anticipated benefits. Moreover, there are many uncertainties surrounding MaaS that may re...

Glynn et al. (2017) note the importance of engaging stakeholders in the process of public policymaking and analysis. In particular, they highlight the central role biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBVH) play in such engagement. However, the framework they propose neglects uncertainty, which significantly restricts any ability to engage effe...

How can we plan for Mobility-as-a-Service given the uncertainties surrounding its implementation?

The 'Horizon Scan 2050'-project identified so-called 'Signals for Change', i.e. developments that might affect the existing visions on the Grand (Societal) Challenges that the Dutch society faces. Using a long time horizon, various developments within societal domains were examined for the signals. The method used was a combination of analyzing sig...

Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning methods are ill-equipped to address deep uncertainties,...

In this study, a multi-stakeholder/multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) is applied to obtain a selection and preliminary ranking for a number of alternative ways to design innovative ITS-based tools that have the potential to improve road safety by creating a more forgiving road (FOR) and a more self-explaining road (SER) environment. The ai...

In theory, green gas has the potential to become an attractive alternative for fossil fuels so as to contribute to the transport sector becoming more sustainable and environment-friendly. However, the large-scale implementation of green gas is hampered by many uncertainties. In this paper these uncertainties are assessed through on a series of SWOT...

In recent years, a model was developed describing effects of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) on location preferences of office-keeping organisations in urbanised. The model is based on a Hierarchical Information Integration Approach, using Stated Preference data. The model indicates that ITS significantly contribute to office location preferenc...

Synonyms: uncertainty, doubt, dubiety, skepticism, suspicion, mistrust, mean lack of sureness about someone or something. Uncertainty may range from falling short of certainty to an almost complete lack of conviction or knowledge especially about an outcome or result. Doubt suggests both uncertainty and inability to make a decision. Dubiety stresse...

Introduction Still too many deaths and injuries are a result of road safety limitations within Europe. Road safety measures aimed to change the road environment to reduce the risks on driver errors and to reduce the seriousness of the effects of driver errors are expected to increase road safety. A suitable combination of new technologies with exis...

For modern airports that daily receive up to a hundred thousand or more passengers, visitors and workers, easy accessibility is key in order to become the preferred multi-modal hub. To achieve high-quality accessibility by means of all kinds of transport modalities, an Enterprise Information Subsystem (EIS) that measures the quality of the provided...

Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) involves an in-vehicle system, which supports the driver in not exceeding the speed limit. Inappropriate speed or speeding is a major cause of road traffic accidents and strongly relates to the outcome of an accident (research indicates that in Europe one third of all fatal accidents is caused by inappropriate spe...

Still too many deaths and injuries are a result of road safety problems within Europe. Technologies based on combinations of infrastructural and in-vehicle system are expected to show the most cost-effective solutions. This chapter provides an overview of existing and emerging systems and a first evaluation of their safety effects, as the main “bui...

To have knowledge about the acceptability of Intelligent Transport systems (ITS) is most beneficial for the development of supported implementation strategies. So far, different theories and methods, also stemming from other domains, have been used to define and conceptualize the notion of acceptability. In a previous paper, we developed a theoreti...

The support of by Belgian and Dutch drivers of in-vehicle speed assistance systems Vlassenroot, S.; Brookhuis, K.; De Mol, J.; Marchau, V.; Witlox, F. Abstract: This paper focuses on the issue of acceptability of ISA. It is based on a large-scale survey of 6370 individuals in Belgium (Flanders region) and 1158 persons in the Netherlands. First resu...

To have knowledge about the acceptability of Intelligent Transport systems (ITS) is most beneficial for the development of supported implementation strategies. So far, different theories and methods, also stemming from other domains, have been used to define and conceptualize the notion of acceptability. Previously we developed a theoretical concep...

Several trials with different types of ISA have shown that ISA can be an efficient and effective way to reduce speed and speeding. In our research we ask the question will there be acceptability of ISA by the public? Different methods and theories were used to distil the most relevant determinants that could influence acceptability. Based on these...

De file dat ben je zelf! is a popular Dutch book (You are the traffic jam!), edited by Hans van Lint and Vincent Marchau, with contributions of many TU Delft colleagues. It's a popular book that covers virtually dimensions of transportation and traffic in an easily digestible style. Unfortunately, it can no longer be downloaded or bought, which is...

Uncertainty is of paramount importance in modern day decision making. In response to this, it has been suggested that policy analysts have to be more careful in communicating the uncertainties that are inherent in policy advice. To support policy analysts in identifying uncertainties and communicating these uncertainties to decision makers, an unce...

A key success factor in the future implementation of new in-vehicle technologies is in understanding how users will experience and respond to these devices. Although it is recognized that acceptance, acceptability and/or support is important, consistency in the definition of acceptability, and how it can be measured, is absent. In this paper we con...

Snelheid en overdreven snelheid worden algemeen beschouwd als belangrijke oorzaken van verkeersongevallen. Snelheidsassisterende systemen geplaatst in het voertuig kunnen bijdragen om de veiligheid en de leefbaarheid op de weg te verhogen. Verschillende studies hebben aangetoond dat ISA een gunstig effect heeft op de verkeersleefbaarheid. Tot vanda...

Speeding is generally considered to be a major cause of road traffic accidents. Several trials with different types of in-car speed assistance systems, in particular Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA), have shown that ISA can be an effective way to reduce speeding. A basic condition for achieving significant improvements in safety involves the acce...

Intelligent Speed Adaptation From Trial Support to Public Support Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) is a beneficial Intelligent Transport System (ITS) to increase road safety. In 2002, thirty-four cars and three buses were equipped with the textquotedblleft active accelerator pedal.textquotedblright The results showed that the pedal assisted them...

Urban transport is facing an increasing number of problems. Innovative technological solutions have been proposed for many of these problems. The implementation of these solutions, however, is surrounded by many uncertainties—for example, future relevant developments for urban transport demand and supply, the possible consequences of these developm...

This paper explores the effect of three intelligent transport systems (ITS)-related transport concepts on location preferences of office-keeping organisations in urbanised areas. To measure these effects, a hierarchical information integration experiment was conducted in the Netherlands. Representatives of office-keeping organisations in selected c...

The introduction of electronic Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in road vehicles is expected to improve traffic efficiency and safety significantly. As such, public policy makers are increasingly interested in the implementation possibilities of these systems. Successful implementation in the near future of these systems will largely depen...

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have undergone immense improvement, having been influenced by improved Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industries, automotive suppliers, and scientific institutes. ITS systems cover systems that support the driver in controlling his/her vehicle in a better way Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (AD...

The paradigm of airport planning and design is changing fundamentally. Low-cost airlines have become significant drivers of airport planning, along with aircraft size and other technical factors. They have different requirements than the “legacy ” carriers. They focus on cost and on alternative ways to handle passengers. Now being sizeable particip...

Policymakers are facing public pressure to take measures to reduce road fatalities due to speeding. A potential measure for reducing speeding is implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), which supports or enforces a driver to maintain the appropriate speed limit. However, despite its safety benefits, ISA impacts on other measures, such as em...

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) seem highly promising in reducing road congestion, traffic un-safety and environmental stress. However, up until now, real-world implementation of ADAS has been a slow process, as knowledge on future ADAS technologies, outcomes of ADAS implementation and conditions for ADAS implementation are uncertain. To...

Safety is of utmost importance in urban road traffic. Many studies reveal that speed is the major factor contributing to road accidents. In the Netherlands, 50% of the speed offences and 65% of the accidents occur on urban roads. Research by the Dutch Ministry of Transport indicates that the elimination of speeding would reduce accidents and fatali...

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are generally considered as most promising for reducing road transport externalities (e.g. congestion, traffic accidents, and environmental stress). Until now, however, ADAS implementation progress is very slow. An important reason for this is missing knowledge about how different stakeholders will (re)act...

Wireless Internet service (WIS) is finding increasing implementation in the Netherlands via several markets. Recently, the idea has emerged of providing WIS through public transport services. The impact of WIS on train travelers, particularly on business travelers, is, however, unknown. In a study to examine this impact, respondents were surveyed t...

Wireless Internet service (WIS) is finding increasing implementation in the Netherlands via several markets. Recently, the idea has emerged of providing WIS through public transport services. The impact of WIS on train travelers, particularly on business travelers, is, however, unknown. In a study to examine this impact, respondents were surveyed t...

Authorities of urban areas are faced with growing traffic and environmental problems due to an ever-increasing use of cars within the urban area. The challenge is to limit and guide car use. The search for innovative strategies to cope with this challenge in the Netherlands focuses on the integration of three policy ingredients. These are: (a) infl...

In the real-world implementation of ITS a lot of non-technical issues come up. Several existing theories to deal with this fail to take all relevant elements into account. By conceptualizing ITS as socio-technical systems (intentional) actors and (normative) social elements are included. In order to deal with these new elements and relations, conce...

The application of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), in particular Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), is expected to improve the performance of road transportation significantly. Public policy makers, among others, are therefore increasingly interested in the implementation of these systems. Available knowledge on various implementa...

Both large-scale physical infrastructure redesign and extensive use of in-vehicle driving assistance systems can contribute to improving road traffic safety. Limited availability of effect data (historical and estimated) for both alternatives is hampering long-term strategic analysis of their potential effects. This paper investigates the use of a...

The application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), in particular advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), is expected to improve the performance of road transportation significantly. Public policy makers, among others, are therefore increasingly interested in the implementation possibilities of these systems. However, current knowledge...

The introduction of electronic advanced driver assistance systems (ADASs) in road vehicles is expected to improve traffic efficiency and safety significantly. Successful implementation of these systems in the near future will largely depend on the willingness of people to buy and use these systems. This willingness is explored by estimating a model...

R&D in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) develops fast. Applications focus on all levels of the transport system: driver behaviour, infrastructure, traffic management and travel choices. Smart combinations of these applications in coherent ITS concepts will be the challenge for the future. Applied to urban systems, it is assumed that different IT...

The application of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is expected to improve the performance of road transportation significantly. Public policy makers, among others, are therefore increasingly interested in the implementation possibilities of these systems. However, current knowledge of these ITS implementation issues is poor with respect to...

The application of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is expected to improve the performance of road transportation significantly. Public policy makers, among others, are therefore increasingly interested in the implementation possibilities of these systems. However, current knowledge on these ITS implementation issues is poor with respect to...

The complexity in the implementation of automated vehicle guidance (AVG) technology from the perspective of public policy decision making is discussed. Public policy and decision making is confronted with the existence of large uncertainties related to the future of AVG development and implementation. A generic typology of uncertainties, which is b...

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute fo...

The interest in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) is growing. The relation between ITS and spatial development has not been widely studied yet. The possible impacts of three ITS-concepts on preferences for office locations were explored. Stated preference data were collected among managers of office-keeping businesses. Analyses indicate a signifi...

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) include promising vehicle technologies to reduce road transportation problems. As such, policymakers are interested in using ADAS in future transport policies. However, until now, ADAS policymaking is obstructed by, among others, missing knowledge on stakeholder preferences regarding ADAS policies. This pap...