Vimal Mishra

Vimal Mishra
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar · Faculty of Civil Engineering

Professor, IIT Gandhinagar: PhD, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN USA

About

248
Publications
159,009
Reads
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6,709
Citations
Introduction
Current research interests: Hydrologic modelling, Remote Sensing, Climate Change, Drought, Floods, and Heat Waves Methods and techniques: Modelling, Statistical analysis, Data analysis Currently working on drought and water availability in India under current and future climate!
Additional affiliations
May 2012 - present
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar
Position
  • Professor (Assistant)
May 2010 - May 2012
University of Washington Seattle
Position
  • PostDoc Position
August 2006 - May 2010
Purdue University
Position
  • Graduate Research Fellow

Publications

Publications (248)
Preprint
Full-text available
Developing an ensemble hydrologic prediction system is essential for reservoir operations and flood early warning. However, efforts to build hydrologic ensemble prediction systems considering the influence of reservoirs have been lacking in India. We examine the potential of the Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS, 16 ensemble members) and Global...
Article
Full-text available
India witness floods during the summer monsoon (June-September) that disproportionately affect the socio-economic well-being of millions of people. Non-structural measures such as flood early warning systems play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts; however, these require a proper understanding of flood drivers. The drivers of floods in the In...
Article
Full-text available
An accurate streamflow forecast is vital for flood prediction and early warning systems. Notwithstanding the rising frequency and intensity of floods during the summer monsoon season in India, efforts to examine the utility of data assimilation for streamflow prediction remain limited. We examine soil moisture and streamflow data assimilation (DA)...
Article
Full-text available
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is a lifeline for agricultural activities and the socioeconomic development of more than one billion people. All-India averaged summer monsoon rainfall has about 10% variability from its long-term mean. A departure of all-India averaged precipitation within ±10% is declared a normal summer monsoon. Using the long-...
Article
Full-text available
Drought is one of the complex and deleterious natural hazards that poses severe challenges to water security, food production, ecosystem, and socio-economic condition in India. Using efficient drought monitoring and assessment, the severe impacts of drought can be reduced. However, drought monitoring and assessment are associated with large uncerta...
Preprint
Full-text available
Drought poses a tremendous challenge to India's socioeconomic development, livelihood, agriculture, and water management. While existing drought monitoring systems have characterized drought impact at different scales, policymaking and management require drought assessment at sub-district or taluka (sub-district) levels. Here, we develop high-resol...
Article
Full-text available
During the summer monsoon (June-September) season, drought poses challenges for agricultural activities and water availability in India. We develop a framework considering the timing, areal coverage, and severity that can be used for the assessment of meteorological droughts as the monsoon season progresses. We estimate the benchmark worst droughts...
Article
Full-text available
Flash droughts are caused by a rapid depletion of soil moisture, which severely affect vegetation growth and agricultural production. Notwithstanding the growing importance of flash droughts under the warming climate, drivers of flash droughts across the Europe are not well understood. Here we estimate the changes in flash droughts characteristics...
Article
Full-text available
Despite the potential and increasing interest in physically-based hydrological models for streamflow forecasting applications, they are constrained in terms of agility to generate ensembles. Hence, we develop and test a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to post-process physically-based hydrologic model simulations at multiple sites on a river netwo...
Article
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Intensive agriculture and irrigation play a crucial role in the food security of India. However, irrigation has considerably impacted regional climate and groundwater sustainability. Notwithstanding the profound implications of irrigation on dry and moist heat and groundwater depletion, the role of efficient irrigation on moist heat stress reductio...
Article
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We are delighted to publish the names of the 613 peer reviewers who submitted 904 reviews in 2021. We express our deep appreciation for your thoughtful comments and suggestions on manuscripts submitted to Earth's Future.
Article
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Floods in India affect millions of people during the summer monsoon (June–September) every year. Atmospheric factors, land surface conditions, and moisture source and pathways ride a combined signature in producing floods in rain-fed river basins. However, floods in Indian river basins are mostly studied considering the role of extreme precipitatio...
Article
Full-text available
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) cause severe damage to infrastructure and economic losses in India. Extreme rainfall from TCs can lead to flooding, which disrupts the lives of people and their socio-economic well-being. Despite the severe hazards caused by TCs in India, their impacts on river basin-scale flooding are not well examined. Here, we...
Article
Full-text available
Meteorological and hydrologic prediction at short to sub-seasonal scales is essential for reservoir operations to mitigate droughts. We examine the skills in the meteorological forecast from the SubX and Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 1, 7, 15, and 30 days lead. We bias-corrected meteoro...
Article
Full-text available
Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Here we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound dr...
Poster
Full-text available
River basin floods due to summer monsoon (June-September) rainfall are the major causes of infrastructure damage and loss of human lives in India. Thus, skillful forecasts of daily streamflows are crucial for flood mitigation. We develop an experimental forecasting system that combines a deterministic physical model forecast in a Bayesian Hierarchi...
Article
Drought is a complex, multifaceted, and one of the most widespread natural disasters causing an economic loss of billions of dollars. Drought declaration is crucial since it signifies the beginning of states's response to drought. India's current drought management policy is specified in the Manual for Drought Management 2016. While the manual prov...
Article
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Consecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MAD...
Article
Full-text available
Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and the human environment. Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental understanding of flash drought occurrence. This study identifies global hotspots for flash drought from 1980–2015 via anomalies in evapora...
Article
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Ganga river basin is the most populated and among the worst water-stressed river basins in the world. The basin contributes to 40% of India’s gross domestic product. Despite the Ganga basin’s cultural, heritage, and economic importance, the interplay among the crucial factors that make the basin one of the global groundwater depletion hotspots is n...
Article
Estimation of the water budget is essential for water resources and environmental management. However, a reliable assessment of the water budget and water yield for the Indian sub-continental river basins has been lacking. We used 0.25° gridded meteorological observations and five hydrological models to construct water budget estimates for the Indi...
Article
Full-text available
A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow is presented that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology and hydrometeorological variables from the upstream contributing area between station gauges. Model parameters are allowed to vary with time as functions of selected covari...
Article
Full-text available
A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow is presented that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology and hydrometeorological variables from the upstream contributing area between station gauges. Model parameters are allowed to vary with time as functions of selected covari...
Article
Full-text available
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to des...
Article
Full-text available
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to desc...
Article
Full-text available
Peninsular Indian agriculture and drinking water availability are critically reliant on seasonal winter rainfall occurring from October to December, associated with the northeastern monsoon (NEM). Over 2016–2018, moderate-to-exceptionally low NEM rainfall gave rise to severe drought conditions over much of southern India and exacerbated water scarc...
Conference Paper
India is severely affected by tropical cyclones (TC) each year, which generates intense rainfall and strong winds leading to flooding. Most of the TC induced floods have been attributed to heavy rain associated with them. Here we show that both rainfall and elevated antecedent soil moisture due to temporally compounding tropical cyclones cause floo...
Article
Full-text available
Compound extremes of low soil moisture and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) have implications on terrestrial carbon sequestration, vegetation growth, and net primary productivity (NPP). Yet, the role of irrigation on the occurrence of compound extremes remains unexplored in India. Here, we use satellite observations, reanalysis data sets, and high...
Article
Full-text available
To mark the tenth anniversary of Nature Climate Change, we asked a selection of researchers across the broad range of climate change disciplines to share their thoughts on notable developments of the past decade, as well as their hopes and expectations for the coming years of discovery. Much has changed in the last 10 years since the Nature Climate...
Article
Full-text available
Floods affect a large fraction of the Indian population during the monsoon (June-September) every year. Floods disrupt all aspects of the socioeconomic conditions and cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture. Human mortality and economic losses due to floods have increased in India during recent decades. Moreover, floods are projecte...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a widely used method in forecasting streamflow, particularly for extremely low or high flows. However, the incorporation of reservoir operations in using ensemble streamflow prediction has not been investigated till yet. We calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for daily streamflow for Narmada...
Presentation
Full-text available
This talk establishes a link between duration of local-scale wet events (defined from hourly rainfall records), area covered by rainfall (from IMERG data) and predictability (using a S2S ensemble from ECMWF) across India. Larger and longer wet events are more predictable than smaller and shorter ones. But shorter events still convey a significant a...
Preprint
Full-text available
Spatially compound extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected social-economic systems. We use an Earth system model large ensemble to examine the future risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions with highly seasonal climate. Relative to the late-20th century, the probability, mean extent and severi...
Article
Full-text available
Vegetation growth plays a crucial role in the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. However, the relative contribution of hydroclimatic variables (relative humidity, terrestrial water storage, day and night‐time land surface temperatures) on vegetation growth of agricultural and non‐agricultural areas at the global scale remains unexplored. U...
Article
Full-text available
Droughts in South Asia pose substantial challenges to water resources, agricultural, and socio-economic growth of more than two billion people. However, the most detrimental soil moisture droughts, their impacts, and occurrence in the observed and projected climate in South Asia remain unidentified. We conducted soil moisture simulations using the...
Article
Full-text available
Human activities associated with intensive irrigation, reservoir storage, and groundwater pumping have substantially altered the hydrological cycle, environment, and regional climate in India. However, the role of human activities on water budget and droughts remain mostly unexplored. We use calibrated and evaluated Community Water Model (CWatM) to...
Article
Groundwater plays a vital role in food security, water availability, and economic growth of more than 1.3 billion people in India. Notwithstanding the development of irrigation schemes based on surface water, groundwater remains a primary source of irrigation in large parts of the country. The Green revolution in the 1970s contributed considerably...
Article
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Rapid unplanned urbanization has led to a deterioration in green cover in Indian cities and an increase in urban temperatures due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. With India’s urban population set to double from 400 million in 2011 to 800 million by 2050, it becomes critical to understand the role of urban green spaces (UGS) in mitigating the...
Article
Full-text available
The efforts to develop a hydrologic model-based operational streamflow forecast in India are limited. We evaluate the role of bias correction of meteorological forecast and streamflow post-processing on hydrological prediction skill in India. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to simulate runoff and root zone soil moisture in the...
Article
Full-text available
Flash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of...
Preprint
Full-text available
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to des...
Poster
Full-text available
Skillful forecasts of daily streamflow on river networks are crucial for flood mitigation, especially in rainfall-driven river basins. This is of acute importance on the Narmada River Basin in Central India, which is driven by the summer monsoon rainfall, and floods lead to heavy loss of life and infrastructure. Physical hydrologic models based on...
Poster
We developed a novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for daily streamflow, which uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and average daily precipitation from the upstream contributing area between station gauges. In this, daily streamflow at each station is assumed to be distributed as Gamma distribution with t...
Article
Full-text available
Rapid groundwater depletion due to anthropogenic pumping for irrigation poses enormous challenges on socioeconomic , agricultural, and financial spheres of India. However, the role of groundwater depletion on flood potential in India remains unexplored. We examine the role of changes in terrestrial water and groundwater storage on flood potential u...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models...
Article
Full-text available
This study aimed to investigate the influence of hydrological model calibration/validation on discharge projections for three large river basins (the Rhine, Upper Mississippi and Upper Yellow). Three hydrological models (HMs), which have been firstly calibrated against the monthly discharge at the outlet of each basin (simple calibration), were re-...
Article
Full-text available
Dry and wet extremes affect agricultural production, infrastructure, and socioeconomic well-being of about 1.4 billion people in India. Despite the profound implications of dry and wet extremes, their changes in the observed and projected climate in India are not well quantified. Here, using the observations from multiple sources, we show that the...
Article
Full-text available
Compound extremes of soil moisture drought and high vapour pressure deficit (atmospheric aridity) are disastrous for natural and social systems. Despite a significant expansion in irrigated area in India, the role of irrigation on soil moisture and atmospheric aridity is not examined. We used observations, reanalysis datasets, and high-resolution s...
Article
Full-text available
Drought is among the costliest natural disasters that affect the economy, food, and water security, and socioeconomic well-being of about 1.4 billion people in India. Despite the profound implications of droughts, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts in India is not examined. Here, we use observations and simulations from a we...
Article
Full-text available
Intensive irrigation in India has been demonstrated to decrease surface temperature, but the influence of irrigation on humidity and extreme moist heat stress is not well understood. Here we analysed a combination of in situ and satellite-based datasets and conducted meteorological model simulations to show that irrigation modulates extreme moist h...
Article
Full-text available
Recent studies based on the ensemble mean of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs, CMIP6‐GCMs hereafter) reported a decline in drought frequency over South Asia in the projected future climate. Here, using the simulations from sixteen CMIP6‐GCMs, we examine the potential causes of declining droughts in So...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sr...
Article
Understanding the sensitivity of water availability in the current and future climate in the Indian sub-continent is vital for food and water security. Using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and Budyko's framework with two observational datasets, we estimated water budget and mean annual runoff sensitivity to precipitation and potenti...
Article
Full-text available
Flash droughts intensify rapidly after onset and cause short-term but devastating impacts on agriculture and the ecosystem. However, the drivers and characteristics of flash droughts in India have not been examined. Here we use a well-calibrated and evaluated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate root-zone soil moistur...
Article
Full-text available
Groundwater is rapidly depleting in India primarily because of pumping for irrigation. However, the crucial role of crop growth at annual and seasonal timescales in groundwater storage variability remains mostly unexplored. Using the data from the Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and well observations, we show that crop growth...
Article
Full-text available
Despite the implications of meteorological drought propagation to agricultural, hydrological, and groundwater droughts, the focus of previous studies has been primarily on meteorological droughts in India. We use the well-calibrated and evaluated Variable Infiltration Capacity- Simple Groundwater Model (VIC-SIMGM) to simulate soil moisture, runoff,...