Vicente Barros

• University of Buenos Aires

The purpose of the RIOCCADAPT report is to assess the climate change adaptation actions being carried out in the member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices or RIOCC), i.e., Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in the Americas, the Caribbean, and the Iberian Peni...

The largest number of flooding events during the last decades in the RIOCC region took place in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Peru (between 1985 and 2015), together with increases in the maximum daily flows in the La Plata and Amazon basins. In recent years, many Ibero-American regions also suffered frequent and extensive droughts, including the Ibe...

Español/ Português El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA d...

El informe completo ya está disponible en la web: http://rioccadapt.com/ =========================================================== La mayor cantidad de eventos de inundación que tuvieron lugar durante las últimas décadas en la región RIOCC ocurrieron en Brasil, México, Colombia y Perú (considerando el periodo 1985-2015) acompañados de incremento...

El Informe RIOCCADAPT tiene por objetivo evaluar las actuaciones sobre adaptación al cambio climático que se están llevando a cabo en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), esto es, los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica. El análisis de la adaptación se ha...

The Southeast South American shelf marine ecosystem extends over the entire continental shelf off the Eastern shores of Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil (23° to 55°S). The region south of 40ºS is usually known as Patagonian Continental Shelf of Argentina (PCSA). The intertidal environments of the Patagonian shore are among the most divers...

Global climate models (GCMs) have, in general, problems representing precipitation over southern southeastern South America (SSESA), namely southern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. In this study, 18 models were selected from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 5 to evaluate rainfall of the warm semester (October–March) when most...

Long-term variability of El Niño (EN) cycle has been the topic of several studies, mainly because of its impacts on climate around the globe. This variability has been mainly described by changes in the intensity and frequency of EN events. In this study, interdecadal changes in the zonal evolution of EN-related sea surface temperature anomalies (S...

Southern South America (SSA), considered as the continental region south of 20ºS, has experienced significant precipitation variability and trends in the last decades. This article uses monthly quality-controlled precipitation data from rainfall stations with continuous observations during at least 100 years to quantify long-term trends as well as...

Poster presented at the 11 International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

Flexible, creative author teams are critical

In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extensi...

Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students, researchers and policy makers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology, atmospheric chemistry and environ...

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The fir...

This paper quantifies the relationship between sea ice cover (SIC) on the Southern Ocean and precipitation and river discharges over southeastern and eastern South America. The period of analysis covers from 1981 to 2008 and includes monthly mean data of SIC over the Ross, Amundsen-Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas, atmospheric variables and discharg...

Human interference with the climate system is occurring. [WGI AR5 2.2, 6.3, 10.3-6, 10.9] Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems (Figure TS.1). The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential...

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) again forms the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with the environmental and social consequences of climate change, including students and researchers across the natural and social sciences, professionals in medicine and law, and practiti...

This work focuses on why climate change matters and is organized into two parts, devoted respectively to human and natural systems and regional aspects, incorporating results from the reports of Working Groups I and III. The volume addresses impacts that have already occurred and risks of future impacts, especially the way those risks change with t...

Distributions of monthly rainfall averaged spatially over three regions of the La Plata Basin (LPB) were projected for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 using outputs of four regional climate models (RCMs) nested in three different general circulation models, run with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tuning of simulations with observations was done at the con...

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the...

A regression approach was used to quantitatively estimate the attribution of the notable growth in the river flows of the Plata Basin during 1960–1999. The study was conducted in seven large basins that account for most of the Plata River discharge. Annual rainfall integrated over each basin and annual river flows at their closing points were used...

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disaste...

Positive trends in annual rainfall in the La Plata Basin (LPB), south of 20°S observed in the last four decades of the twentieth century were not reversed and became more statistically significant when calculated until 2005. These trends were part of a more general change in the monthly precipitation distribution including extreme precipitation. Pr...

La Cuenca del Plata provee de agua potable a millones de personas a través de cinco países en Sudamérica. En el contexto de un potencial cambio futuro en las condiciones medias del clima, los caudales de los ríos de la cuenca podrían verse afectados y en este sentido es de sumo interés poder inferir estos posibles cambios en los caudales para d...

This meeting was agreed in advance as part of the IPCC workplan, but this does not imply working group or panel endorsement or approval of the proceedings or any recommendations or conclusions contained herein. Supporting material prepared for consideration by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This material has not been subjected to fo...

El modelado hidrológic o es una potente herramienta que permite determinar la disponibilidad futura de agua sobre vastas regiones de nuestro planeta. En particular, la región de la Cuenca del Plata se caracteriza por proveer de agua potable a millones de personas a través de cinco países. En el contexto de un potencial cambio futuro en las condicio...

Heavy rainfall trends in a region of south-eastern South America during 1959–2002 were discussed using daily data of 52 meteorological stations of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Changes in intensity and frequency were both studied with different statistical tests and approaches to check the significance of trends of single and regional aggregated r...

Presented at the 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography

During recent months, another sign of the global fragility to sustain the increasing human demand for resources has appeared with merciless cruelty. Increasing food prices, paradoxically driven to a large extent by the rapid economic growth of vast regions of the emerging world, are affecting hundreds of millions of the poorest people in Africa, As...

En el noreste de Argentina han estado predominando las condiciones secas extremas durante los meses de invierno, si bien a nivel anual la precipitación ha presentado una tendencia positiva durante los últimos 40 años. Estas condiciones han puesto en riesgo la vida y la economía de la región. Se presenta un análisis a nivel anual y semestral de la p...

The Uruguay River basin experienced extensive land use change during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of expansion of agricultural area, while streamflow and precipitation increased during the same period. This study assesses the impact of land use change between 1960 and 2000 on streamflow using a hydrology model that explicitl...

Rainfall trends in subtropical South America east of the Andes during the period 1960–1999 were studied in connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. In addition, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis were used to look at the connection between rainfall trends...

This article discusses the feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation during the early stages of the South American monsoon. The system achieves maximum precipitation over the southern Amazon basin and the Brazilian highlands during the austral summer. Monsoon changes are associated with the large-scale dynamics, but during its early stages,...

No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for...

This authoritative volume, along with its companion on vulnerability, resulting from the work of the Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) project launched with the IPCC in 2002, is the first to provide an in-depth investigation of the stakes in developing countries. It covers current practices and needs, the changing nat...

AIACC Working Papers, published on-line by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), is a series of papers and paper abstracts written by researchers participating in the AIACC project. Papers published in AIACC Working Papers have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication in the on-line series as being (i) fundamental...

The dynamical basis for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that while global tropical SST affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the lack of SST predictability over the Atlantic represents a limiting factor to seasonal climate predictions over some parts of...

A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as...

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/3413/5/bab0877.0001.001.pdf http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/3413/4/bab0877.0001.001.txt

Scientific research and knowledge have played key roles in creating widespread recognition of human caused global climate change and galvanizing action to address the problem. They have done so by providing and applying knowledge to answer a few basic questions. First, are the actions of people changing the climate on a global scale? Second, does i...

A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as...

Este trabajo se basa en el análisis de las precipitaciones extremas en la Argentina, donde existen algunas evidencias acerca de cambios en las intensidades, y especialmente en las frecuencias. En las últimas décadas, en el Este y el Centro de la Argentina se han observado tendencias crecientes en la frecuencia de las precipitaciones extremas. Consi...

Most of the Plata River discharge (about 26,000 m 3 s-1) originates in the north of the basin, namely over Brazil and Paraguay where the runoff accounts for only 30 % of the mean precipitation volume. Therefore, the percentage changes in discharges generally magnify the corresponding changes in either precipitation or evaporation. In fact, in the l...

The La Plata Basin is the second largest river (in discharge) in the Americas. Its mean discharge exceeds that of the Mississippi by about 20%, with a drainage area that is slightly smaller. The basin covers parts of five South American countries and plays a critical role in energy production, water resources, transportation, agriculture, and lives...

A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maccio. Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climalological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of chang...

Significant climate change effects on river discharges of the Plata basin cannot be discounted, as the regional precipitation has already had a substantial positive trend in the past. Besides, rivers discharges, when expressed as percentages, considerably amplify the precipitation variability. Trends during the last 40 years were principally caused...

The greatest discharges of the Paraguay River were studied using monthly series of Ladario, Brazil, at the outlet of the vast wetland of the Pantanal, and Asuncion, Paraguay, at the middle Paraguay River outlet. Most of the major discharges at Asuncion peaked between May and July, in phase with the annual maximum of the river discharges. They origi...

Seasonal linear trends of precipitation from South American station data, which have been averaged onto grids, are examined, with emphasis on the central continent. In the period 1976 99, the largest trend south of 20°S occurs during the January March season, is positive, and is centered over southern Brazil. From 1948 to 1975 the trend is also pos...

Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation conditions during austral springs of ENSO events are examined. Based on previous knowledge that SST variations over the subtropical south-central Pacific (SSCP) region are linked to differences among El Niño (EN) events, a stratification of the springs associated with EN events was performed according to SST con...

The regional economies in subtropical South America hinge on vital water resources, which are significantly affected by climate variability. The subtropical region encompasses La Plata basin (LPB), recently endorsed as a GEWEX Continental Scale Experiment. This presentation describes a transferability experiment by which methodologies developed for...

Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), is a series of working papers produced by researchers participating in the AIACC project. The papers published in AIACC Working Papers have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication as being (i) fundamentally sound in their methods and implementation, (ii) informative about the methods and/or findings of...

¶Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm...

The main components of the hydrologic cycle of the La Plata basin in southeastern South America are investigated using a combination of observations, satellite products, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global reanalyses. La Plata basin is second only to the Amazon basin in Sou...

The midsummer interannual variability of the low-level tropospheric circulation and of the precipitation field in subtropical South America (SA) associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean (WSSA) is investigated using reanalyses, regional precipitation datasets, and monthly SSTs.The regi...

This paper explores the relation between the inter-annual variability of the austral South American monsoon onset and end dates and the inter-annual variability of rainfall in September and May in subtropical South America. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) was used to define the onset and end dates of the convective season. Precipitation records w...

This paper deals with the relationship between the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall variability over southeastern South America (SSA), namely the subtropical region east of the Andes between 20 and 40S, during the austral spring. Rainfall in SSA and SST interannual vari...

This paper explores the relationship between regional circulation anomalies and the interannual variability of surface temperature in Southern South America, east of the Andes (SSA). Two sets of monthly surface temperature for the 1963-1990 period were used; one was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and the other was built from the synoptic netw...

RESUMEN Este trabajo hace una revisión del Sistema del Monzón de América del Sur (SMAS) y sus relaciones con el clima de la región subtropical al sur de 20ºS, basado en trabajos de los coautores y otras contribuciones. Se discuten los dos patrones dominantes de la circulación de capas bajas durante Enero y su asociación con las fases de alternancia...

The most severe flooding of the twentieth century in the Argentine section of the Paraná River occurred during the strong El Niño (EN) event of 1983. During the 1997-98 EN episode, discharge anomalies in the Paraná basin, although of the same sign as those of the 1982-83 event, were much smaller. The main differences were observed during January-Ma...

In subtropical Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil, precipitation is most abundant during summer but its interannual variability is large. At this time a zone of low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and intense convection is developed to the north of this area. This feature is known as the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and se...

A comprehensive view is given of the precipitation and circulation anomalies associated with the various stages of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) events all over southern South America (SSA). This view comprises the delineation of coherent regions with respect to precipitation anomalies, the identification of the seasons of maximum anomalies, the in...

Positive trends in precipitation were observed during 1916–1991, especially since the fifties, over most of the Argentine territory. The seasonal variation of the climatic parameters, including precipitation between 1956–1991, can be summarized as a displacement of the positive nucleus of precipitation to the northeast from summer to winter and a l...

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir la experiencia argentina en el proceso de análisis realizado par la adopción de una meta voluntaria de sus emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Esta experiencia puede ser de utilidad a otros países en vías de desarrollo que se hallen en proceso de adoptar metas voluntarias de reducción de sus emisiones...

The connection between the tropical convection over South America and rainfall in subtropical Argentina is studied using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements obtained from the scanning radiometer aboard the polar orbiting NOM operational satellites and rainfall measurements of 32 selected Argentine stations for the period 1975-1991. The m...

The connection between the tropical convection over South America and rainfall in subtropical Argentina is studied using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements obtained from the scanning radiometer aboard the polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites and rainfall measurements of 32 selected Argentine stations for the period 1975-91. The me...

The circulation anomalies that are responsible for processes leading to the observed precipitation anomalies in different regions of Southern South America during El Niño and La Niña events are presented through composite fields. Their consistency is assessed and their connection with the precipitation anomalies is discussed.

Until the mid 1970s a negative trend in the river flow values in the Argentinean provinces of San Juan and Mendoza (Cuyo region) was observed. The prevailing critical conditions and their economic and social impacts provide a basis for the characterization of an adverse climate change scenario for the region. The causes of the early 1970s scenario...

For U.S., Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (Tu-r) and rural temperatures (Tr) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual vari...

Se analiza la diferencia urbano-rural de la temperatura media anual en 9 ciudades argentinas con poblaciones entre 20,000 y 8,500,000 habitantes. Con esta finalidad, se utilizan series urbanas y rurales provenientes de estaciones que no distan más de 50 km entre sí. En la zona oriental de la llanura pampeana se pudo suplir la falta de estaciones ru...

The urban-rural difference of mean annual temperatures in 9 Argentine cities with populations between 20 000 and 8500 000 inhabitants is analyzed. The population dependence of the urban temperature excess is similar to Australia. The regional temperature trend is 0.2°/100 years for the last century which represents less than half of the trend estim...

In spite of the severe limitations of the available data, use of the model permits Buenos Aires' urban-rural temperature differences since 1929 to be calculated. During the 1940s and 1950s the urban-rural temperature difference increased linearly, later slowing and reaching a maximum during the 1960s. The decrease in the urban-rural-temperature dif...

The interannual surface variability of pressure and temperature over Argentina is studied in connection with the Southern Oscillation (SO). Thirty nine surface records of the 1959-92 period from Argentina were used to study the anomaly pattern of the negative SO phase. Surface pressure is significantly lower over most of the country during the nega...