Vasco Gabriel

University of Victoria | UVIC · Department of Economics

How do financial frictions affect macroeconomic volatility and monetary policy in emerging market economies? This article assesses the empirical relevance of such frictions by estimating a two‐bloc emerging market/rest‐of‐the‐world model containing two key features of emerging economies: partial transaction and liability dollarization, and financia...

Moment conditions model averaging (MA) estimators in the GMM framework are considered. Under finite sample considerations, MA estimators with optimal weights are proposed, in the sense that weights minimize the corresponding higher-order asymptotic mean squared error (AMSE). It is shown that the higher-order AMSE objective function has a closed-for...

This paper uses recently developed robust estimation methods to empirically reassess the long-standing inflation-unemployment trade-off debate. Indeed, we study to what extent unemployment-based New Keynesian Phillips Curves are informative about the relationship between inflation dynamics and labour market conditions. In particular, we attempt to...

The paper investigates whether the institutional arrangements that determine the conduct of monetary and prudential policies influence policymakers' actions in pursuing their designated mandates. Employing recently developed dynamic heterogeneous panel methods and using data for 25 industrialized countries from 1960 to 2018, we empirically assess w...

We present evidence on the operation of incentive pay from a field experiment in Pakistan, looking at piece rates and pay based on rank achieved in a tournament. Importantly, some workers are in contracts ‘tying’ them to the employer for several picking seasons; others are ‘untied’, in the sense of being employed for only the current season. We fin...

This paper is concerned with the saddle-path stability of monetary growth rules in a two-country two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exports, fiscal dominance and oil exports, this model also incorporates informal...

The model developed in this paper examines the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies in promoting macroeconomic stability, highlighting the role of shocks and policy instruments. The paper shows that assigning the mandates of monetary and financial stability to independent authorities enhances macroeconomic stability only when s...

We develop an open economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator facing domestic f...

International equity markets linkages are characterized by nonlinear dependence and asymmetries. We investigate shifts in long run comovements in stock markets by means of an ‘interrupted’ Markov switching cointegration specification. This flexible approach allow us to study to what extent documented changes in global integration are permanent, or...

Model averaging (MA) estimators in the linear instrumental variables regression framework are considered. The obtaining of weights for averaging across individual estimates by direct smoothing of selection criteria arising from the estimation stage is proposed. This is particularly relevant in applications in which there is a large number of candid...

We derive the conditions under which time-varying cointegration leads to cointegration spaces that may be time-invariant or, in contrast, time-varying. The model of interest is a vector error correction model with arbitrary time-varying cointegration parameters. We clarify the role of identification and normalization restrictions and show that stru...

We develop a closed-economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator fac...

This paper provides a systematic empirical study of the role of credit market frictions in the transmission of monetary shocks. First, using macro data for a developing economy (Pakistan), we show that banking spreads are countercyclical, even when we control for credit risk, monetary policy and potential maturity mismatches. Moreover, we find that...

This paper investigates the role of credit market frictions in the transmission of monetary shocks in Pakistan. First, using macro data, it is shown that banking spreads are countercyclical, even it is controlled for credit risk, monetary policy and potential maturity mismatches. It is found that this anti cyclical nature is accentuated in the pres...

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long-run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier study, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspecified number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this i...

The authors thank the editor and a referee for insightful comments and suggestions. The first author acknowledges financial support from ESRC grant RES-061-25-0115. The second author acknowledges financial support under grant PTDC/ECO/68367/2006 from the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia. We thank Ron Smith, Paul Levine, and participants at the...

We suggest using the efficient test with prespecified cointegration vectors of Horvath and Watson (1995) for the 'strong' fiscal sustainability hypothesis. Unlike this procedure, conventional methodologies tend to penalize the sustainability hypothesis.

We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fiscal sustainability. This method allows us to simultaneously: (1) test for cointegration in the presence of significant fiscal policy changes; (2) assess the type of fiscal regime that a country experienced at a given period and (3) analyse the timing of the transition betwee...

We analyse the monetary policy implications of boom–bust cycles in asset prices using a Markov-switching rational expectations model. In our simulations, when a bubble bursts, the Taylor rule fails to achieve a soft landing, contrary to the optimal policy.

This paper re-examines empirical inference on stochastic discount factors employing recently developed conditional moment procedures (Kitamura, Tripathi and Ahn, Econometrica, 2004; Dominguez and Lobato, Econometrica, 2004, inter alia). Unlike unconditional estimation methods, this approach does not imply potential losses of information and is ther...

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are highlighted with increasing degrees of financial frict...

In this paper, we examine parameter identification in the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve proposed by Gali and Gertler [Gali, J., Gertler, M., 1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195–222]. We employ recently developed moment conditions inference procedures, which pr...

The important contribution by Basu and Fernald (2002) shows that, in practice, there is a statistically significant gap between aggregate productivity and technology that can be attributed to inefficient product and labour markets. This is important, as it implies that the Solow residual is an imperfect index for aggregate technology change. We tak...

This paper argues that nonlinear adjustment may provide a better explanation of fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio. The nonlinearity is captured by a Markov-switching vector error-correction model that allows the dynamics of the relationship to differ across regimes. Estimation of the system suggests that these states are related to the b...

We analyse the effect of uncertainty concerning the state and the nature of asset price movements on the optimal monetary policy response. Uncertainty is modeled by adding Markov-switching shocks to a DSGE model with capital accumulation. In our analysis we consider both Taylor-type rules and optimal policy. Taylor rules have been shown to provide...

We estimate an alternative type of monetary policy rule, termed Calvo rule, according to which the central bank is assumed to target a discounted infinite sum of future expected inflation. Compared to conventional inflation forecast-based rules, which are typically of the Taylor-type with discrete forward looking horizons, this class of rule is les...

We introduce adaptive learning behavior into a general-equilibrium life-cycle economy with capital accumulation. Agents form forecasts of the rate of return to capital assets using least-squares autoregressions on past data. We show that, in contrast to the perfect-foresight dynamics, the dynamical system under learning possesses equilibria that ar...

We argue that the equation commonly used in the estimation of the wealth effect on consumption might be unsuitable for that purpose. In particular, if the usual assumptions are employed, the derivation of the equation implies that the wealth effect is indeterminate. Furthermore, it implies that the estimate of the wealth effect should decrease when...

We argue that the equation commonly used in the estimation of the wealth effect on consumption might be unsuitable for that purpose. In particular, if the usual assumptions are employed, the derivation of the equation implies that the wealth effect is indeterminate. Furthermore, it implies that the estimate of the wealth effect should decrease when...

In this paper, we examine the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) proposed by Gali and Gertler (1999) by employing recently developed momentconditions inference procedures. These methods provide a more efficient and reliable econometric framework for the analysis of the NKPC. In particular, we address the issue of parame...

One measure of the health of the Social Security system is the difference between the market value of the trust fund and the present value of benefits accrued to date. How should present values be computed for this calculation in light of future uncertainties? We think it is important to use market value. Since claims on accrued benefits are not cu...

Evidence of instability of the wealth effect in the USA is presented through the estimation of a Markov switching model of the long-run aggregate consumption function. The dating of the regimes appears to bear relation to movements in asset prices. A model-based explanation of the findings is suggested, highlighting the importance of the short-run...

Recent research has focused on the links between long memory and structural breaks, stressing the memory properties that may arise in models with parameter changes. In this paper, we question the implications of this result for forecasting. We contribute to this research by comparing the forecasting abilities of long memory and Markov switching mod...

In this paper, the discussion concerning the joint use of unit root and stationarity tests is extended to the case of cointegration. Critical values for testing the joint confirmation hypothesis of no cointegration are computed and a small Monte Carlo experiment evaluates the relative performance of this approach.

In this paper we propose a simple method of testing for cointegration in models that allow for multiple shifts in the long-run relationship. The procedure consists of carrying out conventional residual-based tests with standardized residuals from an appropriate Markov switching model. Our Monte Carlo results show that standard tests work well, even...

In this paper we examine the properties of several cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to multiple shifts, resorting to Monte Carlo methods. We assume that the changes in cointegration regimes are governed by a unobserved Markov chain process. This specification has the considerable advantage of allowing for an unspecified numb...

possibilidade de ocorrência de mudançaas estruturais tem vindo a receber uma atenção crescente, dado poderem conduzir a inferências erradas e a maus desempenhos em termos de previsão e de simulação em modelos econométricos. Este estudo aborda alguns testes de alteração de estrutura no contexto dos modelos de regressão linear. Para além de oferecer...

In this paper, we propose a simple method for testing cointegration in models that allow for multiple shifts in the long run relationship. The procedure consists of computing conventional residual-based tests with standardized residuals from Markov switching estimation. No new critical values are needed. An empirical application to the present valu...

The aim of this paper is to compare the relative performance of several tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration, in terms of size and power in finite samples. This is carried out resorting to Monte Carlo simulations, considering a range of plausible data-generating processes. As of this writing, there is no study providing guidance on the us...

In this paper we examine, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, the properties of several cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to structural changes. We allow for different types of stochastic and deterministic regime shifts, more specifically, changes governed by Markov chains, martingale parameter variation, sudden multiple brea...

Recent research has focused on the links between long memory and structural change, stressing the long memory properties that may arise in models with parameter changes. In this paper, we contribute to this research by comparing the forecasting abilities of long memory and Markov switching models. Two approaches are employed: a Monte Carlo study an...

This study addresses some modeling questions related to the possibility of structural change in models with non-stationary variables. Focusing on cointegration issues, some methodological aspects ere discussed, attempting to integrate coherently the several steps of the modelling strategy. These range from unit to cointegration testing and to testi...

The purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is examined by means of residual-based cointegration tests. A generalized concept of cointegration is used. that is, fractional cointe-gration. This method aims to be a complement of the Engle-Granger procedure, whose test for cointegration assumes that the equilibrium error is strictly I(1) (nonstationa...

The recent …nancial turmoil has highlighted the importance of …nancial factors in economic uc-tuations. In this paper we develop a model with …nancial frictions on the supply and demand side of credit. We introduce a …nancial accelerator mechanism on the demand side of credit that can be implemented without the costly state veri…cation approach. Mo...