Vaqar Ahmed

• PhD Economics
• Managing Director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute

The study evaluates fiscal sustainability in Pakistan by examining pension expenditures and their implications. Using data from 2000-2020, the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to explore how pension expenditures affect fiscal sustainability in Pakistan. The results highlight a positive impact of pension expenditures on the pr...

This report sheds light on the significance of digital trade integration for Pakistan and selected Central Asian countries including Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Digital trade integration involves regulatory structures/policy designs, digital technologies, and business processes along the entire global/regional digital value...

Digital trade is increasing rapidly throughout the world whereas digital platforms and Coronavirus have further enhanced the importance of the digital economy and digital trade. Countries are focusing on promoting digital trade and integration through various measures including free trade agreements and bilateral negotiations. This study examined d...

This study provides a gender analysis of public sector budgets in education sector. An in-depth analysis of pre-primary to secondary level education budgetary allocations and spending in Pakistan of 2016-18 has been conducted. The study identifies that 22.8 million children aging between 5-16 years were out of school in 2016-17. In Sindh, a vast po...

The book "Global Pakistan: Pakistan’s Role in the International System" provides an insightful exploration of Pakistan's position within the global landscape. It challenges the conventional inward-focused discourse on Pakistan, emphasizing the country's interconnectedness with global events, economic trends, and governance frameworks. The book cove...

The study examines the impact of school facilities and teachers’ training on learning at different levels of education in the selected districts of Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The research methodology is based on three key instruments that help in systematically approaching the research questions: the review of existing secondary info...

This study provides a gender analysis of public sector budgets in education sector of Punjab for the period of 2016 to 2018 from the preprimary to secondary level. The research methodology is based on review of secondary information and data, key informant interviews, stakeholder consultations, and a review of budgetary process. It helps in systema...

This study examines how the financial services accessed and delivered through digitalization in Pakistan. Digital infrastructure refers to Internet, mobile phones, ATMs, tablets, chips, biometric devices and any other existing digital communication system. Currently, financial markets have become more reliant on digitalization as digital integrated...

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 intends to end poverty of all forms and the government of Pakistan is also targeting poverty alleviation through social safety nets. 'Ehsaas' is the major social safety nets proramme which include various initiatives that are benefiting millions of households. The study examines the state of poverty in Pakistan...

The book, Poisons in Our Environment, is a research-based publication having the data (including contaminants in different environment segments) of 38 sites in the country’s three provinces, collected by the SDPI team, not only under the author’s supervision & guidance but also in his presence at each of the visited sites. All data described and di...

The book, Poisons in Our Environment, is a research-based publication having the data (including contaminants in different environment segments) of 38 sites in the country’s three provinces, collected by the SDPI team, not only under the author’s supervision & guidance but also in his presence at each of the visited sites. All data described and di...

Background: Dispute resolution is the process through which conflicts, misunderstandings are handled. It is an effective process for smooth functioning of any sort of organization. It further helps in maintain peace in the society as well as organization. Objective: This study seeks to appraise and evaluate the effectiveness of Dispute Resolution C...

The paper aims to identify the various types of non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting Pakistan’s textile sector. The textile industry is of great importance to Pakistan and is a major contributor to its gross domestic product. However, Pakistan’s textile exports are facing market access challenges, in part due to trade barriers of some developed cou...

The study aims to identify the various types of non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting Pakistan’s textile sector. Pakistan’s textile industry holds a huge stake in Pakistan’s economy and is a major contributor to its gross domestic product. However, Pakistan’s textile exports are facing market access challenges due to discriminating trade barriers by...

This book is a promising addition to economic literature which explains the sluggish growth pattern of Pakistan and the various forms of inequalities in society. The book defines the country’s growth and inequality pattern during times of various governments from 2001-18.

Consensus exists that overvaluation hurts and devaluation benefits the economies. Yet, governments prefer overvaluation of the domestic currency. Most obvious reason seems to be the short run political costs associated with devaluation. For example, devaluation risks the reputation of political leadership through increasing the debt burden of a cou...

This paper focuses on the predicament of transport connectivity in Pakistan in its own domestic context and with regards to South Asian and Central Asian regions. It appraises the impact of the derelict transport infrastructure within Pakistan on the ease of transit and the movement of goods and services. Through engagement with various stakeholder...

This study provides a gender analysis of public sector budgets in education sector of Pakistan. An in-depth analysis of pre-primary to secondary level education budgetary allocations and spending at federal and provincial (Punjab and Sindh) levels for the period of 2016-18 has been conducted through a gender lens. The research methodology is based...

This study provides a gender analysis of public sector budgets in education sector of Pakistan. An in-depth analysis of pre-primary to secondary level education budgetary allocations and spending at federal and provincial (Punjab and Sindh) levels for the period of 2016-18 has been conducted through a gender lens. The research methodology is based...

This study examines how the greater financial market integration can be promoted between China and Pakistan. Based on secondary data and stakeholders’ interviews, the study explores the possible opportunities and key challenges arising due to financial market integration. Over time, both the countries have made efforts to develop and integrate seve...

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Purpose This study aims to examine the possible gains and challenges for the enhancement of bilateral trade ties between India and Pakistan. It is interested specifically in analyzing and deliberating an attempt to identify the key challenges and bottlenecks in cross-border trade. Design/methodology/approach This paper offers in-depth case study...

Gender Analysis of Education Budget and Budgeting Process

Recently, health tourism has gained a lot of importance in South Asia as numerous people across the world acquire medical care in countries such as Pakistan and India. Health tourism is defined as patients and public traveling abroad for seeking quality and affordable medical treatment which is often not available in their home country. Literature...

The copyright-based industries contribute substantially to the national economy in the form of value addition, tax revenues, trade and employment. This study highlights both the core and non-core copyright-based industries in Pakistan. With the technical guidance of World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) and National Institute of Cultural...

This paper attempts to evaluate the possible gains and losses arising from the gradual opening up of pharmaceutical trade between India and Pakistan. We explain the comparative advantages of both countries at a disaggregated level, followed by a qualitative analysis of various perceptions and experiences of Pakistan’s pharmaceutical manufacturers w...

The auto sector in Pakistan has been a persistent opponent of trade liberalisation in the country. This has entailed losses to consumers in terms of higher prices, low safety and quality standards, and lack of innovation in this sector. The deletion programme, which was to result in indigenization of final output, has also failed to deliver expecte...

This article highlights the major challenges to social accountability in Pakistan. Based on a perception survey of 800 household-level respondents from four provinces of Pakistan besides relevant focus group discussions and key informant interviews, the findings of the study reveal that the respondents have an understanding of which of the basic se...

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) address the importance of developing the skills of the labour force and the required reform of labour markets for poverty reduction. SDG 8 aims to ‘promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all’. The corresponding targets aim to achieve a...

This study tries to understand the the opportunities, constraints and impacts of this requires expertise in areas such as health policy, trade policy, private sector development, foreign affairs, border security issues, finance and banking policy among others. Moreover, this requires knowledge and action among people and organisations from both Ind...

This study tries to understand the the opportunities, constraints and impacts of this requires expertise in areas such as health policy, trade policy, private sector development, foreign affairs, border security issues, finance and banking policy among others. Moreover, this requires knowledge and action among people and organisations from both Ind...

Numerous health legislations concerning child mortality, maternal health and life-threatening diseases such as polio and tuberculosis are crafted in the health sector of Pakistan. A critical assessment of health legislations points to their ineffective or sub-optimal implementation. By engaging with the concept of public law, there is a strong rela...

Pakistan is a food insecure and water scarce country. Though, there had been a decrease in ‘extremely food insecure’ population from 22.4% in 2009 to 17.4% in 2013, an overall extent of food insecurity has increased from 48.6% in 2009 to 58% in 2013 (Ramay 2014).The Economic Survey 2014-15 reported agriculture’s share in GDP at 21%. The sector also...

This article discusses some key constraints in the way of developing South Asian value chains. Using a qualitative approach we have surveyed private sector representatives from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The article, among other challenges, particularly notes, ( a) lack of functional economic corridors in the region; ( b) conflict z...

As India has liberalized its FDI regime for investment from Pakistan, new opportunities have opened up for investment between the two countries. This chapter aims to highlight Pakistan-specific investment opportunities in India. A sectoral approach is employed in this chapter whereby consultations are held with the business community in Pakistan al...

The agricultural sector provides the majority of employment in Pakistan, especially among the poorest segments of the population. Energy provision affects production and livelihoods, especially with the advance of mechanization in agriculture. Changes in gas and electricity prices affect the income of farmers significantly, thereby reducing the agr...

Amidst all the concerns of uncertainty over the future of Afghanistan, recent developments have given hope to the world, specifically south and central Asia. A coalition government has now been established following the deadlock that came after the May 2014 elections. President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah have already signed a...

This chapter aims to update past estimates on informal trade between India and Pakistan. This survey-based study captures the informal merchandise flow from India through the various routes identified by Pakistani traders. The quantitative estimates provided by the wholesaler and retailer community were validated through clearing agents and customs...

Pakistan today seems to be embroiled in a number of conflicts that have both domestic as well as international dimensions. Conflicts of course vary, ranging from household disputes to increasing crime resulting from disparities. However, at an aggregated level, conflicts have a societal connotation that reflects deep-rooted divisions within a socie...

The present study carries out an impact analysis of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program for secondary-school girls in seven districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan, including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir. In 2012 we collected household-level primary data and used a probit model for quantitative...

The role of infrastructure in economic growth and welfare has been studied extensively across the literature over the past three decades. Post World War II reconstruction presented a model where governments invested in economies in order to create an enabling environment for the private sector. This led to infrastructure being viewed as something a...

The present study investigates the energy, environment and growth nexus for a panel of South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The simultaneous analysis of real GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions is conducted for the period 1980–2010. Levin panel unit root test and Im test panel unit root test both i...

The report focused on National level Accountability Framework: Key issues with respect to Corruption, Post 18th Amendment Accountability Reforms: Anti-Corruption Strategy at Provincial Level and Anti-Corruption Strategy and Micro-level Governance.

The growth experience in South Asia, exhibits how skilled human capital paved the way for foreign direct investment and technology transfer in the region. Developing countries, in the same region, however, felt constraints on growth primarily associated with institutional factors that kept productivity of labour and capital at lower levels. Despite...

This paper examines the relationship between foreign assistance and economic growth for the period 1972 to 2010. Past literature indicates that, due to low domestic resource mobilisation, Pakistan had to resort to various forms of foreign assistance on a regular basis. Using time series data since 1972 and employing statistical tests we show that f...

This study outlines the role of trade facilitation in Pakistan for economic corridors in South Asia. We study the current state of trade related infrastructure in Pakistan and its connectedness particularly with Afghanistan and India. The implications of recently initiated Afghanistan – Pakistan transit trade agreement are discussed. Current impedi...

This paper provides an ex ante economy-wide assessment of some contentious taxation reforms being considered in Pakistan, in order to widen the tax base and rationalise the rate structure of different taxes. Amongst the main proposals, those focusing on value added tax (VAT) and agricultural direct taxes seem relatively more attractive. The former...

This paper assesses the pre and post Free Trade Agreement (FTA) pattern in bilateral trade between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Besides the usual direction of trade analysis we also use general and partial equilibrium approaches in order to evaluate the true potential of this FTA. Our results reveal an increase in welfare and efficiency for both countri...

This paper provides an ex ante assessment of taxation reforms being considered in Pakistan, in order to widen the tax base and rationalise the rate structure of different taxes. Amongst the main proposals, those focusing on sales tax and agricultural direct taxes seem relatively more attractive. The former has the highest share in indirect taxes an...

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economy and household welfare in Pakistan by using a general equilibrium framework and microeconometric analysis. The frst approach is to highlight the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of a reduction in remittances, while the second is to show how remittances decrease the probability of being poor...

In this case study we adopt a macro-micro framework in order to evaluate the impact of the current global crisis on the Pakistan economy. We use a ‘top-down’ approach to combine a static computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. Our results suggest that between 2007 and 2009 the poverty headcount ratio is likely to have inc...

This paper studies the redistribution effect of personal income tax in Pakistan. We decompose the overall tax system in order to evaluate the contribution of rate, allowances, deductions, exemptions and credits. The structure given in Income Tax Ordinance 2001 is applied to gross household incomes in 2002 (low growth year) and 2005 (high growth yea...

This paper studies the impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. Between 2001 and 2007 Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bil...

This paper studies the welfare impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. After 2001, Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bilat...

Pakistan has been experiencing robust economic growth for the past few years. The macroeconomic position as exhibited by the real sector growth, fiscal indicators and external balance has reasonably improved. However the big question remains; will Pakistan be able to sustain these growth levels? Preserving the momentum becomes difficult when growth...

This paper reviews the recent work on the application of the CGE-microsimulation models. The discussion focuses on the various linking methodologies and how they can impact our results.

This paper provides an overview of competing and supplementing methodologies for modelling the regional economic dynamics. The discussion provides a primer on how regional CGE, Econometric, Input-Output and SAM based models work towards capturing the region-specific, interregional and multiregional production, consumption and factor market patterns...

This paper carries out a detailed survey of CGE and Microsimulation models used in the evaluation of issues related directly or indirectly to incomes distribution. Different model structures are discussed which have been employed for country-specific, multi-country and region-specific studies. The paper considers the relevance of a relatively recen...

Pakistan is a developing country bracing for significant economic growth and development in the future. In this regards, the country is poised to shift towards an increased reliance upon its indigenous coal reserves to fuel its development in the 2010-2050 time frame. Although this will significantly raise its projected greenhouse gas emissions, th...

Today South Asia is host to a large youth bulge which is entering the labor market every year posing challenging questions for the national governments in the context of employable skills, space for entrepreneurship, innovation and economic freedom. SME sector provides an opportunity for the young to exercise their ideas and ideals. However a prere...

This paper carries out a detailed survey of CGE and Microsimulation models used in the evaluation of issues related directly or indirectly to incomes distribution. Different model structures are discussed which have been employed for country-specific, multi-country and region-specific studies. The paper considers the relevance of a relatively recen...

While Pakistan has taken several steps to promote competition in its markets, further reforms are required in improving domestic commerce, agricultural markets and industries. With increasing risks and cost of doing business due to deteriorating law and order situation as well as massive energy shortages, Pakistan needs to compensate its entreprene...

Connectivity in developing countries has traditionally been viewed in terms of investment in transport and communications. This papers makes an effort to go beyond this traditional view and conceptualizes connectivity as networks between people and places. We split the overall national reforms agenda for connectivity into three prongs: a) transport...

The Afghanistan – Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was signed in 1965 with the objective of granting and guarantee to both parties the freedom of transit to and from their territories . The routes that were identified included: a) Karachi – Peshawar – Torkhum, b) Karachi – Chaman – Spin Boldak, and c) Port Qasim was included subsequently in...

Pakistan being a frontline state in the war against terrorism has also remained one of the highest recipients of foreign aid. This paper analyses foreign assistance through four main facets namely: the link between aid, security and growth with special reference to Pakistan, general equilibrium impact of foreign resource inflow on economic growth a...