Valentin Amrhein

Valentin Amrhein
University of Basel | UNIBAS · Department of Environmental Sciences

About

120
Publications
49,618
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4,395
Citations
Citations since 2017
48 Research Items
3273 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230200400600800

Publications

Publications (120)
Article
Full-text available
It has long been argued that we need to consider much more than an observed point estimate and a p-value to understand statistical results. One of the most persistent misconceptions about p-values is that they are necessarily calculated assuming a null hypothesis of no effect is true. Instead, p-values can and should be calculated for multiple hypo...
Article
Full-text available
A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, p-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, 'statistically significant' results have overestimated...
Preprint
Full-text available
A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, P-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, statistically significant results have overestimated e...
Preprint
Full-text available
This is a reply to Muff, S. et al. (2022) Rewriting results sections in the language of evidence, Trends in Ecology & Evolution 37, 203-210.
Preprint
Full-text available
A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, P-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, statistically significant results have overestimated e...
Preprint
This paper aims to provide early-career researchers with a useful introduction to good research practices.
Article
Full-text available
Horses are gaining importance in European nature conservation management, for which usually so-called primitive breeds are favored due to their claimed robustness. An increasingly popular breed, the Konik horse, is often said to be the direct descendent of the alleged European wild horse, the Tarpan. However, both the direct descent of the Konik fr...
Article
Full-text available
Nitrogen (N) deposition from agriculture and combustion of fossil fuels is a major threat to plant diversity, but its effects on organisms at higher trophic levels are unclear. We investigated how N deposition may affect species richness and abundance (number of individuals per species) in butterflies. We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature on va...
Article
Full-text available
Grazing by large herbivores is increasingly used as a management tool in European nature reserves. The aim is usually to support an open but heterogeneous habitat and its corresponding plant and animal communities. Previous studies showed that birds may profit from grazing but that the effect varies among bird species. Such studies often compared b...
Preprint
Full-text available
Nitrogen (N) deposition caused by agriculture and combustion of fossil fuels is a major threat to plant diversity, but the effects on higher trophic levels are less clear. In this study we investigated how N deposition may affect species richness and abundance (number of individuals per species) in butterflies. We started with reviewing the literat...
Article
Full-text available
Whether or not "the foundations and the practice of statistics are in turmoil", it is wise to question methods whose misuse has been lamented for over a century. Perhaps the most widespread misuse of statistics is taking the crossing of some threshold as license for declaring "statistical significance" and for generalizing from a single study. Such...
Article
Full-text available
Ein «signifikantes» Ergebnis kann falsch sein und ein «nicht signifikantes» richtig. Die Wissenschaft sollte sich vom naiven Konzept der «statistischen Signifikanz» verabschieden, fordert Valentin Amrhein
Preprint
Full-text available
To the Editor of JAMA Dr Ioannidis writes against our proposals to abandon statistical significance in scientific reasoning and publication, as endorsed in the editorial of a recent special issue of an American Statistical Association journal devoted to moving to a “post p <0.05 world.” We appreciate that he echoes our calls for “embracing uncertai...
Preprint
Full-text available
To the Editor of JAMA Dr Ioannidis writes against our proposals to abandon statistical significance in scientific reasoning and publication, as endorsed in the editorial of a recent special issue of an American Statistical Association journal devoted to moving to a “post p <0.05 world.” We appreciate that he echoes our calls for “embracing uncertai...
Article
Full-text available
Statistical inference often fails to replicate. One reason is that many results may be selected for drawing inference because some threshold of a statistic like the P-value was crossed, leading to biased reported effect sizes. Nonetheless, considerable non-replication is to be expected even without selective reporting, and generalizations from sing...
Article
Full-text available
Traducción: Francesc J. Hernàndez (Universitat de València)
Article
Full-text available
Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, Blake McShane and more than 800 signatories call for an end to hyped claims and the dismissal of possibly crucial effects.
Article
Full-text available
Nitrogen (N) deposition is a major threat to biodiversity in many habitats. The recent introduction of cleaner technologies in Switzerland has led to a reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with a consequent decrease in N deposition. We examined different drivers of plant community change, that is, N deposition, climate warming, and land-u...
Preprint
Full-text available
Nitrogen (N) deposition is a major threat to biodiversity in many habitats. The recent introduction of cleaner technologies in Switzerland has led to a reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with a consequent decrease in N deposition. We examined different drivers of plant community change, i.e. N deposition, climate warming, and land-use c...
Preprint
Full-text available
In birds, observed adult sex ratios often are biased towards males. This bias could arise due to differences between sexes in dispersal or in detectability / catchability, but a preferred explanation has been sex differences in survival. However, most studies investigated apparent survival, in which differences in dispersal were not accounted for....
Preprint
Full-text available
Statistical inference often fails to replicate. One reason is that many results may be selected for drawing inference because some threshold of a statistic like the P-value was crossed, leading to biased reported effect sizes. Nonetheless, considerable non-replication is to be expected even without selective reporting, and generalizations from sing...
Preprint
Statistical inference often fails to replicate. One reason is that many results may be selected for drawing inference because some threshold of a statistic like the P-value was crossed, leading to biased reported effect sizes. Nonetheless, considerable non-replication is to be expected even without selective reporting, and generalizations from sing...
Preprint
Full-text available
Statistical inference often fails to replicate. One reason is that many results may be selected for drawing inference because some threshold of a statistic like the P-value was crossed, leading to biased reported effect sizes. Nonetheless, considerable non-replication is to be expected even without selective reporting, and generalizations from sing...
Preprint
Full-text available
Nitrogen (N) deposition is a major threat to biodiversity in many habitats. The recent introduction of cleaner technologies in Switzerland has led to a reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with an according decrease in N deposition. We examined different drivers of plant community change, i.e. N deposition, climate warming, and land-use c...
Preprint
Full-text available
In birds, observed adult sex ratios often are biased towards males. This bias could arise due to differences between sexes in dispersal or in catchability, but a preferred explanation has been sex differences in survival. However, most studies investigated apparent survival, in which differences in dispersal were not accounted for. Here, we used da...
Preprint
Full-text available
In birds, observed adult sex ratios often are biased towards males. This bias could arise due to differences between sexes in dispersal or in catchability, but a preferred explanation has been sex differences in survival. However, most studies investigated apparent survival, in which differences in dispersal were not accounted for. Here, we used da...
Preprint
Full-text available
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = .05 to .005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance tes...
Preprint
Full-text available
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = .05 to .005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance tes...
Article
Full-text available
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significan...
Article
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significan...
Article
Full-text available
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance...
Preprint
Full-text available
There is a massive crisis of confidence in statistical inference, which has largely been attributed to overemphasis on and abuse of hypothesis testing. Much of the abuse stems from failure to recognize that statistical tests not only test hypotheses, but countless assumptions and the entire environment in which research takes place. Unedited and un...
Preprint
Full-text available
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = .05 to .005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance tes...
Article
Full-text available
Functional traits are increasingly being used to understand the response of species to environmental change and their effects on ecosystem functioning. However, some ecologically important traits, such as plant height, influence the probability of species detection during field surveys. Imperfect detection of species could therefore bias measures o...
Article
Full-text available
The marsh frog (Pelophylax ridibundus sensu lato) is the number one amphibian invader in Western Europe. In Switzerland, marsh frogs were introduced in the 1950-1960s and progressively colonized most of the northern parts of the country. We investigated this invasion using molecular tools. We mapped the cryptic presence of three monophyletic mitoch...
Preprint
Full-text available
We argue that depending on p-values to reject null hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level for statistical significance from .05 to .005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable criterion levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense...
Poster
Full-text available
The adult sex ratio (ASR) is a key component shaping evolution of life history strategies, population dynamics and sex roles, and biased ASRs are likely to have implications for wildlife conservation. In birds, observed ASRs often are biased towards males, which could arise because of sex differences in capture probability, in dispersal, or in surv...
Article
Full-text available
The widespread use of 'statistical significance' as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistical Association). We review why degrading p-values into 'significant' and 'nonsignificant' contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making t...
Preprint
Full-text available
The widespread use of 'statistical significance' as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistical Association). We review why degrading p-values into 'significant' and 'nonsignificant' contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making t...
Preprint
Full-text available
The widespread use of 'statistical significance' as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistical Association). We review why degrading p-values into 'significant' and 'nonsignificant' contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making t...
Preprint
Full-text available
The widespread use of 'statistical significance' as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (American Statistical Association, Wasserstein & Lazar 2016). We review why degrading p-values into 'significant' and 'nonsignificant' contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to...
Article
Full-text available
Long-term shifts in vegetation phenology generally follow the pattern of global warming. Yet, topographical complexity and biome diversity cause uneven spatial trends in the phenological response of vegetation to climate change. If phenology changes similarly along migration routes, individuals may adequately respond by shifting the whole migration...
Article
Full-text available
Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to a...
Article
Full-text available
In migratory birds, morphological adaptations for efficient migratory flight often oppose morphological adaptations for efficient behavior during resident periods. This includes adaptations in wing shape for either flying long distances or foraging in the vegetation and in climate-driven variation of body size. In addition, the timing of migratory...
Data
Table S1. Morphometry of nightingales (Luscinia m. megarynchos) across its distribution range. Figure S1. Longitudinal pattern of migration distance and four environmental factors at specific breeding sites of local populations used in the study.
Article
Full-text available
Estimating effects of nitrogen (N) deposition is essential for understanding human impacts on biodiversity. However, studies relating atmospheric N deposition to plant diversity are usually restricted to small plots of high conservation value. Here, we used data on 381 randomly selected 1 km(2) plots covering most habitat types of Central Europe an...
Article
Full-text available
Migration detours, the spatial deviation from the shortest route, are a widespread phenomenon in migratory species, especially if barriers must be crossed. Moving longer distances causes additional efforts in energy and time, and to be adaptive, this should be counterbalanced by favorable condition en route. We compared migration patterns of nighti...
Article
Full-text available
As a response to climate warming, many animals and plants have been found to shift phenologies, such as appearance in spring or timing of reproduction. However, traditional measures for shifts in phenology that are based on observational data likely are biased due to a large influence of population size, observational effort, starting date of a sur...
Article
Full-text available
As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range...
Article
Full-text available
Whether migratory animals use similar resources during continental-scale movements that characterize their annual cycles is highly relevant to both individual performances and population dynamics. Direct knowledge of the locations and resources used by migrants during non-breeding is generally scarce. Our goal was to estimate migratory connectivity...
Article
Full-text available
In an article in Science on "Bayes' Theorem in the 21st Century", Bradley Efron uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that twins are identical given that the sonogram shows twin boys. He concludes that Bayesian calculations cannot be uncritically accepted when using uninformative priors. While we agree that the choice of the prior is ess...
Chapter
Full-text available
Wild bird feeding may be the most widespread and popular form of human-wildlife interaction throughout the world. In the urban backyards and gardens of the world, there are millions of bird feeders alongside millions of nestboxes. This chapter highlights important findings on the effects of food supplementation on avian ecology. Food supply clearly...
Article
Full-text available
In animal communication, elaborate signals have been shown to be under sexual selection and often to reliably indicate a signaler's quality, condition, or motivation. For instance, the performance of physically challenging signals such as trills – i.e. rapidly repeated elements of broad frequency bandwidth – is considered to reflect signaler qualit...
Article
Full-text available
Functional communication research explores the relations between bird song and mate choice or territory defence. This is usually done by examining the time of day or season when a bird sings, and how it uses particular songs or singing strategies, i.e. what role it takes in singing interactions with rivals. Male Nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos c...
Article
Functional communication research explores the relations between bird song and mate choice or territory defence. This is usually done by examining the time of day or season when a bird sings, and how it uses particular songs or singing strategies, i.e. what role it takes in singing interactions with rivals. Male Nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos c...
Article
In a Perspectives article in Science, Bradley Efron concludes that Bayesian calculations cannot be uncritically accepted when using uninformative priors. We argue that this conclusion is problematic because Efron's example does not use data, hence it is not Bayesian statistics; his priors make little sense and are not uninformative; and using the a...
Article
Full-text available
In territorial animals, establishing and defending a territory against rivals is commonly a prerequisite for successful reproduction. Yet, often, non-territorial males that are seeking to establish their own territory may intrude into occupied territories and persistently challenge residents in order to test their resource-holding potential. Such c...
Article
Full-text available
Responses of organisms to environments or to conspecifics may abruptly change once the organism has changed its state. For example, the expression of sexually selected signals often depends on the pairing status of the sender. A likely change in signaling routines at the point of pair formation should thus be taken into account when investigating a...
Article
Full-text available
1. It is increasingly acknowledged that skewed adult sex ratios (ASRs) may play an important role in ecology, evolution and conservation of animals. 2. In birds, published estimates on ASRs mostly rely on mist netting data. However, previous studies suggested that mist nets or other trap types provide biased estimates on sex ratios, with males bein...
Article
Full-text available
In communication networks, territorial neighbours often regulate social relations using long-range signals. However, such relations may be affected when unfamiliar third parties threaten the territorial integrity of the neighbourhood. We investigated responses of vocally interacting nightingales, Luscinia megarhynchos, that were successively challe...
Article
Full-text available
Many animals use long-range signals to compete over mates and resources. Optimal transmission can be achieved by choosing efficient signals, or by choosing adequate signalling perches and song posts. High signalling perches benefit sound transmission and reception, but may be more risky due to exposure to airborne predators. Perch height could thus...
Article
Full-text available
In most animals, communication plays a central role in a variety of contexts. In this chapter, we synthesize studies on vocal communication and spatial behavior in nightingales, Luscinia megarhynchos, with other research on songbirds to emphasize the need to integrate studies on communication with spatial and movement data to be able to understand...
Article
Full-text available
Supplementary feeding of wild birds during winter is one of the most popular wildlife management activities, and is likely to have profound influence on the behavioural ecology of a species. At garden bird feeders, birds are now often fed well into the breeding season. Providing food within an established songbird territory, however, is likely to i...
Article
Full-text available
European hares (Lepus europaeus ) are thought to select resting places providing cover, to protect themselves against predators and unfavourable weather conditions. We tested this hypothesis by flushing wild hares from their resting places and by assessing the cover at hare forms. The vegetation at resting places was generally found to be higher th...