Unnada Chewpreecha

• Cambridge Econometrics

Targeting China, Japan and Korea, this study aims to discuss how a harmonized carbon market would impact each country’s economy and environment. It compares each individual carbon market implement for the country’s decarbonization pathway using the E3ME. In the CJK joint market, emissions are reduced by −32% in 2030 and −85% in 2050 compared to the...

There are parallels between the Covid-19 crisis and the climate crisis. Both crises were and are global in scope and require collective action. Their solutions rely on a combination of technological advance and behavioural change. It may be possible to address two such crises simultaneously. We test the compatibility of ‘green’ economic recovery pl...

Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models t...

The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We calculate that global stranded assets as present value of future lost profits in the upstream oil and gas sector exceed US$1 trillion under plausible changes in expectations about the effects of climate policy. We trace the equ...

This study uses the E3ME macro-econometric model to simulate what Japan’s macroeconomy would look like and how Japan's energy composition would change if the country were to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The results indicate that renewable energy will account for about 90% of the power supply configuration in 2050, assuming nuclear power plant...

A key aim of climate policy is to progressively substitute renewables and energy efficiency for fossil fuel use. The associated rapid depreciation and replacement of fossil-fuel-related physical and natural capital entail a profound reorganization of industry value chains, international trade and geopolitics. Here we present evidence confirming tha...

Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three global models to analyze the impact of a mor...

We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating technologies by households in all individual Member States up to 2050, and allows to simulate the potential effect of real-world policy instruments aiming...

A key aim of climate policy is to progressively substitute renewables and energy efficiency for fossil fuel use. The associated rapid depreciation and replacement of fossil fuel-related physical and natural capital may entail a profound reorganisation of industry value chains, international trade, and geopolitics. Here, we present evidence confirmi...

The electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil-fuel-based technologies by electr...

The immediate and long-term requirements of energy policy in Germany and the wider EU are widespread. In addition to meeting decarbonisation targets to mitigate climate change, energy policy must be designed in such a way that is socioeconomically advantageous, delivering multi-policy objectives of energy security, a stable environment for energy s...

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We simulate which policy measures could induce an almost complete decarbonisation of residential heati...

Subsidies to electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) implemented next to an emissions trading scheme (ETS) are frequently criticised for producing no additional benefit in terms of mitigating climate change and increasing the costs of emissions abatement. We re-assess the performance of this policy mix in a setting in which ele...

In the version of this Article originally published, H. Pollit’s name was incorrectly listed as H. E. Pollit (H.E.P.) throughout the paper, this has been corrected to H. Pollitt (H.P.) in the online versions of this Article.

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels1,2,3,4. This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result...

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with “holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C”. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the cli...

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the cli...

In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transiti...

A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agen...

E3-India is a new state-level model of India, developed from the global E3ME macro-econometric model, linking the economic, energy and environmental emissions systems. The model is designed to assess policy through a highly empirical structure, whereby historical data is used to feed in to econometric estimations of model interactions, forming a co...

A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agen...

We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating tech- nologies by households in all 28 EU Member States up to 2050. It features an explicit representation of households’ technology choices, based on mar...

The aim of this study is to investigate the macroeconomic impacts of Japan meeting its 2030 NDC GHG emission reduction target, using a carbon tax, under different assumptions about the share of nuclear in the power sector. We further investigate different ways to recycle revenues raised from carbon tax. The analysis was carried out using the global...

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which policy measures could induce an almost-complete...

A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agen...

In this paper we analyse macroeconomic consequences of greenhouse gas emission mitigation in Latin America up to 2050 through a multi-model comparison approach undertaken in the context of the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare two carbon tax scenarios with a business-as-usual scenario of anticipated future energy demand. In the short term,...

We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emiss...

We present a carbon cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emiss...

This article gives a detailed account of part of the modelling that was carried out for the assessment of the EU's proposed energy and climate targets for 2030. Using the macro-econometric simulation model, E3ME, and drawing on results from the PRIMES energy systems model, it shows that a 40% reduction in GHG emissions (compared to 1990 levels) cou...

Conventional economic analyses of stringent climate change mitigation have generally concluded that economic austerity would result from carbon austerity. These analyses however rely critically on the assumption of an economic equilibrium, which dismisses established notions on behavioural heterogeneity, path dependence and technology transitions....

This paper presents an analysis of possible uses of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology innovation-diffusion perspective. Emissions reductions occur through changes in technology and energy consumption; in this context, investment decision-making opportunit...

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that...

Environmental tax reform (ETR), a shift in taxation towards environmental taxes, has been implemented on a small scale in a number of European countries. This paper first gives a short review of the literature about ETR. An Appendix briefly describes the model used for a modelling exercise to explore, through scenarios with low and high internation...

Market-based instruments have gradually become a significant tool of environmental policy in central European countries. By using the structural macroeconometric E3ME model the authors compare two alternative green tax based policy frameworks in the Czech Republic. While the first imposes a tax on emissions of classical pollutants (particulates, su...

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, "new economics" approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that...