Ullrich Lorenz

Ullrich Lorenz
Systemic Futures

About

10
Publications
5,273
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107
Citations
Citations since 2016
8 Research Items
106 Citations
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Publications

Publications (10)
Book
Full-text available
Stories are not made to give us clear and straightforward solutions but rather take us on a journey beyond our immediate context. They draw us into worlds of imagination that broaden our thinking and open our mindsets so that we can find new solutions in the present. They help us imagine different, sometimes frightening, but also promising futures,...
Chapter
The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and energy balances. The WORLD6 model first creates value from extraction of natural resources, input of human labou...
Chapter
As a study by the German Environment Agency (UBA) already demonstrated, a greenhouse-gas neutral Germany in 2050 is technical possible, which is an important and necessary first step. However, possible synergies and trade-offs must be examined in order to put these technical options into practice to facilitate a greenhouse-gas neutral economy and s...
Chapter
The exponentially developing Global Megatrends of human society can be explained and modelled from a systemic perspective. Results show simultaneous exponential growth for population, energy consumption, raw materials extraction, GDP, pollution and climate change. The authors participated in the development of the WORLD6 system dynamics model to ex...
Technical Report
Full-text available
In the RESCUE-"GreenEe" scenario presented, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 95 percent compared to 1990 and primary raw material consumption by 60 percent by 2050 compared to 2010. The study shows that a combined ambitious climate and resource protection helps to achieve both goals. Such a systemic approach should be discussed and implement...
Article
Full-text available
For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain environments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we de...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report gives an overview how global megatrends can influence topics on regional and local level. The report demonstrates how qualitative modelling and system thinking approach can be applied to analyse the possible impact of global megatrends to the regional topic of resource scarcity, demonstrated in two case studies. In the first case study,...
Article
Full-text available
Making food production and consumption more sustainable is a highly complex venture, requiring varied policy instruments. While finding an integrated and coherent approach is difficult, the use of strategic foresight might help to fill the gap. This article presents the results of an extensive scenario-building process in which we searched for sust...

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Projects

Projects (3)
Project
In the RESCUE project, the German Environment Agency (UBA) explores the nexus between climate protection and associated resource requirements. Using six scenarios, different development paths are explored and insights gained on how to reduce future resource use and greenhouse-gas emissions in Germany.
Project
- Exploring scenarios for sustainable Europe 2050 - Assessing impacts of global megatrends upon sustainable Europe 2050