Ulf Büntgen

• PD Dr. phil. nat.
• Professor at University of Cambridge

Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe1,2 and Asia3,4. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations1–6 , pandemics7,8 , human migration and political turmoil8–13. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as wel...

Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challengin...

The mathematical aberration of the Gregorian chronology’s missing “year zero” retains enduring potential to sow confusion in studies of paleoclimatology and environmental ancient history. The possibility of dating error is especially high when pre-Common Era proxy evidence from tree rings, ice cores, radiocarbon dates, and documentary sources is in...

Europe’s recent summer droughts have had devastating ecological and economic consequences, but the severity and cause of these extremes remain unclear. Here we present 27,080 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen (δ13C and δ18O) isotopes from 21 living and 126 relict oaks (Quercus spp.) used to re...

Intellectual and cultural benefits from extended periods of self-isolation have a long history. The ongoing decline in academic freedom, however, distinguishes the coronavirus disease from previous crises. Despite the unprecedented political and economic challenges, as well as the devastating societal disruptions caused by the global COVID-19 pande...

Although it is evident that forest management needs to adapt to fast changing climate conditions, there are still many uncertainties about how European tree species will perform under predicted temperature increases and associated hydroclimatic extremes. Here, we present a dendrochronological network of 1934 trees from 46 sites across southwest Ger...

Tree-ring stable isotopes and wood anatomical traits emerged as powerful proxies for paleoclimate reconstructions, providing information beyond traditional ring width and wood density chronologies. However, comprehensive comparisons of these state-of-the-art tree-ring proxies derived from the same trees have yet to be performed to identify and diff...

The world’s longest tree-ring chronology comprises thousands of oak and pine series from Germany and continuously covers the Holocene back to 12,325 cal BP. A lack of relict wood from the Younger Dryas cold reversal ca. 12,900–11,700 cal BP, however, challenges the extension of this abso lutely dated ring width record further back in time. Here, we...

Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is critical to understand both historical and current shifts in the hydroclimate, particularly in regions critically entwined with global circulation. The Tibetan Plateau, the Earth’s largest and highest plateau, is a nexus for global atmospheric processes, significantly influencing East Asian...

Heatwaves and summer droughts across Europe are likely to intensify under anthropogenic global warming thereby affecting ecological and societal systems. To place modern trends and extremes in the context of past natural variability, annually resolved and absolutely dated climate reconstructions are needed. Here, we present a network of 153 yew (Ta...

The high temperature sensitivity of pine trees in northern Fennoscandia has led to some of the most reliable tree-ring climate reconstructions in the world for the past millennia. However, wood anatomical anomalies that likely reflect temperature-induced reductions in cell wall lignification, the so-called Blue Rings (BRs), have not yet been system...

Key message The temperature sensitivity of maximum latewood density measurements in pine trees from a high-elevation site in the Spanish Pyrenees increases with tree age. Detrending modulates the intensity of the effect. Abstract Tree-rings are the prime archive for high-resolution climate information over the past two millennia. However, the accu...

The Qin and Western Han dynasties (221 BCE to 24 CE) represent an era of societal prosperity in China. However, due to a lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records it is still unclear whether the agricultural boost documented for this period was associated with more favorable climatic conditions. Here, multiparameter analysis of annually resolved...

Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi‐centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near futu...

Comparing recent warming against past temperature changes is crucial for understanding the importance of greenhouse gas emissions for the global climate system. Although tree ring-based temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions form the backbone of high-resolution paleoclimatology, the data used, methods applied, and concepts proposed are far fr...

Introduction The Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) describes the linear relationship between stable hydrogen (δ ²H) and oxygen (δ ¹⁸O) isotopes in precipitation over large spatial scales and therefore represents a unique reference for water isotopic values. Although trees have the potential to capture the isotopic composition of precipitation, it r...

As an evolutionary achievement of almost all terrestrial plants, lignin biosynthesis is essential for various mechanical and physiological processes. Possible effects of plant cell wall lignification on large‐scale vegetation distribution are, however, not yet fully understood. Here, we present double‐stained, wood anatomical stem measurements of 2...

Although recent warming affects the high-northern latitudes at an unprecedented rate, little is known about its impact on boreal forests because in situ observations from remote ecosystems in Siberia are sparse. Here, we analyse the radial growth and climate sensitivity of 54 Cajander larches (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) from three sites across the nort...

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1–3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europ...

Sitka spruce has been one of the most planted tree species in Iceland since the mid-twentieth century. Here, we use different dendrochronological methods to identify the controlling climatic factors of its growth and possible changes in their influence over time. We develop annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring width (TRW...

Citation: Kirdyanov, A.V.; Arzac, A.; Kirdyanova, A.A.; Arosio, T.; Ovchinnikov, D.V.; Ganyushkin, D.A.; Katjutin, P.N.; Myglan, V.S.; Nazarov, A.N.; Slyusarenko, I.Y.; et al. Abstract: Radial tree growth at high-elevation and high-latitude sites is predominantly controlled by changes in summer temperature. This relationship is, however, expected t...

The impact of atmospheric pollution on the growth of European forest tree species, particularly European beech, silver fir and Norway spruce, is examined in five mesic forests in the Czech Republic. Analyzing of basal area increment (BAI) patterns using linear mixed effect models reveals a complex interplay between atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulf...

Tree-ring stable isotope (TRSI) chronologies that combine information from living and relict wood have the potential to capture long-term trends that might be missing in traditional tree-ring width and maximum latewood density measurements. Our understanding of the possible effects of different methods to develop TRSI chronologies is, however, stil...

Subject to a long research tradition, the tree line is considered an important biogeographic indicator of climate changes and associated range shifts. Realized tree line positions and the potential tree line isotherm are, however, rarely in equilibrium because trees are unable to track rapid temperature variations. Often ignored in tree line resear...

Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the...

A recent increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes under global warming is likely to continue to cause unprecedented rates of forest dieback in different habitats around the world. As one of the most widely distributed tree species, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has experienced widespread mortality over the past two decades and...

Polar regions are critically implicated in our understanding of global climate change. This is particularly the case for the Arctic, where positive feedback loops and climate tipping points enhance complexity and urgency. Half of the Arctic and much of the world’s permafrost zone lie within Russian territory. Heightened geopolitical tensions, howev...

Summer droughts are affecting the productivity and functioning of central European forests, with potentially lasting consequences for species composition and carbon sequestration. Long-term recovery rates and individual growth responses that may diverge from species-specific and population-wide behaviour are, however, poorly understood. Here, we pr...

Correlation coefficients are widely used to identify and quantify climate signals in proxy archives. Significant relationships between tree-ring chronologies and meteorological measurements are typically applied by dendroclimatologists to distinguish between more or less relevant climate variation for ring formation. While insignificant growth-clim...

Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer1,2, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record3–5. However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures⁶. Here we combine observ...

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite...

If you are interested in the paper, please contact me directly and I will send you the PDF. Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmen...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the latest decade was warmer than any multi-century period over the past 125,000 years. This statement rests on a comparison of modern instrumental measurements against the course of past temperatures reconstructed from natural proxy archives, such as lake and marine sediments, and...

Europe experienced severe heat waves during the last decade, which impacted ecological and societal systems and are likely to increase under projected global warming. A better understanding of pre-industrial warm-season changes is needed to contextualize these recent trends and extremes. Here, we introduce a network of 352 living and relict larch t...

More than 14,000 Icelanders emigrated to North America between 1870 and 1914 CE. Mass movement from Iceland accelerated the year after the explosive eruption of Askja in 1875, and both contemporary and recent commentators have linked the two circumstances. Despite an abundant scholarship on Icelandic emigration in this period, the direct and indire...

Annually resolved and absolutely dated proxy archives are necessary for contextualizing the rate and amplitude of anthropogenic climate change. High-resolution climate reconstructions are particularly important for remote regions where instrumental meteorological observations are limited in space and time. Here, we develop a robust, 260-year-long t...

Recent developments in tree-ring research offer great potential for reconstructing past climate changes; determining the frequencies of natural hazards; and assessing the availability of freshwater resources over timescales that extend well into the pre-instrumental period. Here, we review the state of dendrochronological research in the Himalaya a...

Recent scholarship argues for more research to resolve the ‘Holocene temperature conundrum’, an apparent discrepancy between decreasing proxy-reconstructed and increasing model-simulated long-term temperature trends during the late Holocene. Here, we argue that the observed proxy-model offset likely results from inappropriate comparisons of differe...

Abstract Perennially frozen soil, also known as permafrost, is important for the functioning and productivity of most of the boreal forest, the world’s largest terrestrial biome. A better understanding of complex vegetation-permafrost interrelationships is needed to predict changes in local- to large-scale carbon, nutrient, and water cycle dynamics...

Tree-ring stable isotopes (TRSI) have the unique ability to capture inter-annual to multi-millennial climate trends and extremes if the appropriate data and methods are combined. However, there is still an ongoing debate about age-related biases in TRSI measurements that potentially affect the fidelity of their chronologies and subsequent climate r...

Tree-ring chronologies form the backbone of high-resolution palaeoclimatology. However, their number declines drastically prior to medieval times, and only a few such records worldwide extend back to the mid-Holocene. Here, we present a collection of more than 400 subfossil yew (Taxus baccata L.) trees excavated from near sea-level peat-rich sedime...

Contextualising anthropogenic warming and investigating linkages between past climate variability and human history require high-resolution temperature reconstructions that extend before the period of instrumental measurements. Here, we present maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of 534 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees from undisturbe...

The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite bei...

In 1977 California, authorities responded to an extreme drought with an unprecedented state order to drastically reduce domestic water usage and leave countless newly built swimming pools empty. These curved pools became “playgrounds” for inspired surfers to develop professional vertical skateboarding in the Los Angeles area. Industrial production...

Investigation into the nexus of human-environmental behavior has seen increasing collaboration of archaeologists, historians, and paleo-scientists. However, many studies still lack interdisciplinarity and overlook incompatibilities in spatiotemporal scaling of environmental and societal data and their uncertainties. Here, we argue for a strengthene...

Large explosive volcanic eruptions can cover wide areas of land with tephra, profoundly disturbing ecological and societal systems. However, while consequences of tephra fallout and flow deposits have been well studied on annual to decadal timescale, little is known about centennial and longer-term changes in vegetation composition. Here, we recons...

The great river systems originating from the Tibetan Plateau are pivotal for the wellbeing of more than half the global population. Our understanding of historical ranges and future changes in water availability for much of Southeast Asia is, however, limited by short observational records and complex environmental factors. Here we present annually...

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain e...

Tree-ring stable isotopes are typically measured in latewood cellulose to mitigate potential carry-over effects from previous year storage pools. The isotopic composition of individual tree-ring segments is thought to include considerable intra-annual variability. This sampling strategy may be complicated by steep intra-annual isotope gradients tha...

Existing global mean surface temperature reconstructions for the Holocene lack high-frequency variability that is essential for contextualising recent trends and extremes in the Earth's climate system. Here, we isolate and recombine archive-specific climate signals to generate a frequency-optimised record of interannual to multi-millennial temperat...

A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high-quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content...

Premise Dominant in many ecosystems around the world, clonal plants can reach considerable ages and sizes. Due to their modular growth patterns, individual clonal plants (genets) can consist of many subunits (ramets). Since single ramets do not reflect the actual age of genets, the ratio between genet size (radius) and longitudinal annual growth ra...

Study region: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe. Study focus: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and so- ciety, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. Howev...

Background Bark exfoliation is a common feature of London planes ( Platanus × acerifolia ) that reportedly increases during periods of drought-induced stem shrinkage. Here, we explore the spatial patterns and potential drivers of plane bark exfoliation in Mainz, a central European city of 220,000 inhabitants, following the exceptional summer drough...

In their recent article in Alpine Botany (133:63-67, 2023a), Körner et al. revisit the outcome of an interesting experiment from 2009 (Lenz et al., Plant Ecolog Divers 6:365–375, 2013). Although I appreciate the new focus on cell wall lignification, I disagree with their main conclusion. Rather than questioning the role cold temperatures play in ce...

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers...

Tackling the grand challenges of global climate change for the sustainability of ecological and societal systems requires data and expertise from Russia, the world's largest country that has the longest Arctic shoreline and the largest forest biome, peatland and permafrost zones. Academic relations and scientific collaborations with Russian scholar...

Citation: Kunz, M.; Esper, J.; Kuhl, E.; Schneider, L.; Büntgen, U.; Hartl, C. Combining Tree-Ring Width and Density to Separate the Effects of Climate Variation and Insect Defoliation. Abstract: Though frequently used in dendroclimatology, European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is regularly defoliated by mass outbreaks of the larch budmoth (Zeiraphe...

The white truffle (Tuber magnatum Picco.; WT) is the most expensive and arguably also the most delicious species within the genus Tuber. Due to its hidden belowground life cycle, complex host symbiosis, and yet unknown distribution, cultivation of the enigmatic species has only recently been achieved at some plantations in France. A sustainable pro...

Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. He...

The Earth's ecosystems are affected by a complex interplay of biotic and abiotic factors. While global temperatures increase, associated changes in the fruiting behaviour of fungi remain unknown. Here, we analyse 6.1 million fungal fruit body (mushroom) records and show that the major terrestrial biomes exhibit similarities and differences in fruit...

Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of trees is an important component of the Earth’s coupled carbon and water cycles. The causes and consequences of long-term changes in iWUE are, however, still poorly understood due to the complex interplay between biotic and abiotic factors. Inspired by the role calcium (Ca) plays in plant transpiration, we ex...

The analysis of a Europe-wide network of tree-ring stable isotopes has shown that the climatic signal of δ2H in tree-ring cellulose (C6H10O5), is far weaker compared to those recorded in carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O)isotopes. Furthermore, the δ2H and δ18O relationships were shown to be site dependent and significantly deviated from the Global Met...

Annually precise dating is the cornerstone of dendrochronology. The accurate crossdating of relict wood is, however, frequently challenged during early chronology periods when sample replication is typically low. Here we present a multi-proxy approach in which stable carbon (δ13C) and radiocarbon (14C) isotope data are used to evaluate and correct...

Dendroclimatology offers the unique opportunity to reconstruct past climate at annual resolution and wood from historical buildings can be used to extend such information back in time up to several millennia. However, the varying and often unclear origin of timbers affects the climate sensitivity of individual tree‐ring samples. Here, we compare tr...

Recent experiments have underlined the potential of δ2H in tree-ring cellulose as a physiological indicator of shifts in autotrophic versus heterotrophic processes (i.e., the use of fresh versus stored non-structural carbohydrates). However, the impact of these processes has not yet been quantified under natural conditions. Defoliator outbreaks dis...

Social Impact Statement Botanic gardens offer unique opportunities for unravelling responses of plant life to climate change. Despite investigations into their aboveground sphere, the belowground realm is usually neglected. Cambridge University Botanic Garden now illuminates the hidden world of one of the most sought‐after culinary delicacies—the B...

The Arctic is one of the regions most sensitive to global warming, for which climate and environmental proxy archives are largely insufficient. Arctic driftwood provides a unique resource for research into the circumpolar entanglements of terrestrial, coastal and marine factors and processes – past, present, future. Here, first dendrochronological...

The Hunnic incursions into eastern and central Europe in the 4th and 5th c. CE have historically been considered one of the key factors in bringing the Roman Empire to an end. However, both the origins of the Huns and their impact on the late Roman provinces remain poorly understood. Here we provide a new, combined assessment of the archaeological,...

Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs...