Ugur Soytas

• Section Head Climate Economics and Risk Management DTU; Editor Energy Economics; Editor Sustainable Production and Consumption; Editor Handbook of Energy Economics
• Head of Department at Technical University of Denmark

As new alternative energy industries are created and old ones are revised, markets constantly try to interpret and adjust to those changes. The purpose of this study is to shed some light on the inner dynamics of the select outside price-shocks versus sector-specific energy companies. This study analyzes the inner dynamics (both short and long-term...

Advanced technologies are inherently dependent on critical minerals and their related metals. The mining extraction of these critical minerals leads to significant social and environmental impacts that extend beyond the regions where those advanced technologies are ultimately used. This study explores the global socio-environmental challenges arisi...

This research aims to understand how certain events, like the global financial crisis, the post‐global financial crisis period, the COVID‐19 pandemic, and the Russia‐Ukraine war, along with changes in the value of the US dollar and uncertainty in gold, currency, and stock markets, affect the uncertainty in oil prices. We are particularly interested...

En efficient og smidig grøn energiopstilling kræver borgernes accept af de anvendte teknologier. Baseret på svarene fra en repræsentativ landsdækkende spørgeskemaundersøgelse med svar fra 1.589-1.593 respondenter1 finder vi størst accept af solceller på industritage, fjernvarme, energibesparelser og havvindmølleparker. Måske fordi det er en ny tekn...

This study examines the macroeconomic carbon rebound effect for the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) by using data for the 2005–2019 period for 26 European countries. We estimate the panel data models which link emissions to allowances by controlling for economic growth, investment, employment, and energy intensity. The results fr...

Literature shows the dynamics of energy markets impacting a variety of sectors. In response to the 2007/2008 financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury provided financial assistance (bailouts) to hundreds of public and private financial institutions under the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) and the Targeted Investment Program. Several studies sugge...

Introducing nature based solutions (NBS) into urban areas is a challenging task for climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, the impact and effectiveness of NBS contingent upon the social acceptability of implemented measures. This study uses a dynamic and adaptive social acceptance framework that shows how data-driven science can inform...

The study compares the prediction performance of alternative machine learning algorithms and time series econometric models for daily Turkish electricity prices and defines the determinants of electricity prices by considering seven global, national, and electricity-related variables as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily data that consist of the...

By 2025, Belgium will phase-out nuclear power. Unassessed so far, this policy reform may modify the economic and environmental channels through which energy and society interfere in this country. In this paper, we investigate whether this structural energy change may adversely impact the growth of the Belgian economy (i) and its ability to meet its...

Growing concerns about long-run equilibrium in the oil market have focused on understanding the time path of oil consumption across countries. This study examines the convergence of oil consumption across the largest oil consumers. To this end, we employ the historical oil consumption data dating back to 1890 by benefiting from the newly proposed c...

Prior literature demonstrates that energy prices are characterized by time-varying jumps. However, earlier studies do not investigate if the intensity of such jumps are higher amid the periods of extreme volatility in comparison to normal periods. Employing the GARCH-jump model, this study examines whether jumps occurring in energy prices are an in...

Human capital and trade liberalization are playing a central role in growth theories. However, the link between human capital, trade liberalization, and economic growth remains a challenging question due to the inconclusive results of the previous studies. Paper contributes to this debate through asymmetric links among human capital, trade liberali...

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between exchange rates, real stock returns, crude oil prices, and industrial production levels for emerging countries. Toda Yamamoto Augmented VAR for Granger non-causality methodology is implemented to determine the linkages and make inferences about the results. Monthly data is used covering th...

Clean energy firms are among the most risky firms to invest in. Hence, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the risk profile of clean energy stocks. The main purpose of this study is to examine how changes in the reserve currency (US dollar) value affect the volatility of clean energy stocks in the absence/presence of uncertainty inform...

Energy is one of the critical issues of contemporary industrial, economic, political, and cultural affairs. The use of energy resources and their transfers is strictly shaped by developing the growth strategies of both the public and private sectors. However, the ethical background, which shapes our intimate relations with this universe and its thi...

Social acceptance can have an important impact on the market penetration of energy technologies and the successful implementation of energy policies. Hence, it is essential to develop quantitative measures of acceptance to be able to manage it. This study adopts a behavioral model to examine the antecedent factors of the social acceptance of shale...

The UNFCC on climate change specifies that all nations must follow the rule of ‘common’ with differentiation regarding their responsibilities for the protection of the global environmental system. Recently, the formulation and stability of the IEA have been increased in the literature by applying the concept of game theory to make the climate agree...

In this study, we identify economic transmission channels through which changes in funding liquidity conditions in interbank markets asymmetrically affect volatilities of stock portfolios during the COVID-19 crisis. For the purpose of this study, the quantile regression approach is utilized. Controlling for macroeconomic factors, we document that v...

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding...

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary...

We examine the effect of stock market development (SMD) on the low-carbon economy (LCE). We consider two channels, renewable energy and technological innovation by which this affect occurs. We use the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) approach to analyse panel time-series data over the period 1980–2016 for European Union mem...

This study analyzes price and volatility transmissions between nineteen real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the oil markets. The REITs data represents a variety of countries at different stages of their development and the expanded analytical approach includes accounting for structural shifts as gradual processes – as opposed to strictly abru...

The heavy influx of financial institutions into commodity markets is referred to as financialization of commodities and this phenomenon argues that financial institutions increase the connectedness between commodity and stock markets through simultaneous investing. In this paper, employing Treasury International Capital data by US Treasury to proxy...

This study examines the dynamic interrelationships among financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth in emerging markets by focusing on accounting for structural changes in causal linkages. We first employ the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and then augment it with a Fourier approximation which captures structural shifts as a...

In this study, we investigate the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil prices, oil price uncertainty, interest rates, and unemployment in a cointegration framework. Utilizing the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach, we show the asymmetric responses of unemployment to changes in oil prices, oil price uncertainty and...

This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level...

There is increased interest in the dynamic relationships between the stock prices of clean energy and technology firms and oil prices in the literature. Existing works suggest a time-dependent link between them, but there is a gap of knowledge regarding the drivers of this time-dependent relationship. To contribute to this literature, we first iden...

There is an ongoing debate on how oil prices affect the stock prices of clean energy companies. We contribute to this debate by questioning the possibility of asymmetric linkages between oil prices, interest rates, and the stock prices of clean energy and technology firms. Using a recently developed approach (nonlinear auto-regressive distributed l...

Our paper has two stages of analysis. First of all, we examine whether volatility spillover between US equity and commodity markets has significantly changed with the heavy influx of index traders in commodity derivatives markets, which is a phenomenon referred to as financialization. Given that previous findings show institutional traders enter in...

Photovoltaic (PV) technology has reached a competitive level owing to high learning rate and technological advance. It is now a feasible technology however its feasibility varies with many parameters such as: location where PV Power Plant (PV PP) is installed, its technology, economic and social state of the country and even the unpredictable futur...

This study examines dynamic causal interrelationships among financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth in the emerging markets by focusing on accounting for structural changes in causal linkages. We first employ the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and later augment it with Fourier approximation to account for structural shifts...

This poster presents the framework and results of the social acceptance of and barriers to nature-based solutions.

Project title: Nature Based Solutions for re-naturing cities: knowledge diffusion and decision support platform through new collaborative models Research and Innovation Action Topic: SCC-03-2016: New governance, business, financing models and economic impact assessment tools for sustainable cities with nature-based solutions (urban re-naturing)

Social acceptance is critical to the market penetration of new products and technologies as well as the successful implementation of policies, including those concerning energy demand. The hydraulic fracturing technique employed in the development of shale gas has been followed by controversy and this has resulted in the emergence of heterogeneity...

The objective of this paper is to explore the determining factors behind financial contagion between US and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) equity markets. To this end, we investigate the effects of global macroeconomic factors on the time‐varying correlations among these markets obtained by asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation method...

In this paper, we investigate the role of open interest, trading volume and trading positions of trader groups on volatility spillover between futures and spot markets of two major commodities; oil and gold during the last two decades. The initial analysis including only spot and futures markets imply that the relationship is bi-directional for cru...

This study tests the causal relationships between oil prices and monetary policy for the emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey). In particular, we explore the role of exchange rates, inflation and interest rates. First we utilize the commonly used Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and later augment the model to accoun...

Purpose This study examines the price-level and volatility impacts of oil prices on energy mutual funds (EMFs). We also examine specific fund characteristics which might influence those interactions. Design/methodology/approach We test for volatility transmission between the oil prices and the funds in our sample. Later, we test to see which fun...

Together with environmental and social contributions, its economic benefits owing to sharp decrease in costs of system components has increased preference of producing electricity from solar energy. Furthermore, strong financial support mechanisms such as feed-in-tariff scheme increase its economic feasibility and contribute its competitiveness aga...

High-yield bonds hold a particularly unique space in the debt market. From many aspects, literature suggests these assets to behave more like stocks than bonds. Given the significant similarities between the high-yield bond and stock markets, it is expected for these markets to be similarly affected by certain outside factors. Some shocks, includin...

This study evaluates the impacts of energy markets on Emerging Market Mutual Funds (EMMFs). In particular, we investigate the volatility transmission between these funds and the oil and natural gas prices. The findings suggest significant risk spillover from the energy markets to EMMFs. Furthermore, we find a large number of EMMFs’ risk transmittin...

This study investigates the impacts of volatility expectations in oil, gold, currency and the U.S. stock markets on time-varying conditional correlations between BRIC and U.S. stock markets. We use asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation models to derive the time-varying relationships. We then examine the dyna...

The debate over phasing out fuel subsidies in Indonesia is quite intense. Recent studies pointed out an unfair distribution of subsidies. Besides this, the burden of fuel subsidies to Indonesian government is expected to increasingly continue in parallel with rising fuel consumption as well as international oil prices. However, recent experiences i...

In this paper, we investigate whether commodity index trader (CIT) positions help to explain the increase in the correlations between agricultural commodities and equities starting around 2008. Some argue institutional investors who invest both in stock and commodity markets demolish the borders between these two seemingly unrelated markets and inc...

Several Eurasian markets are considered as potential global financial centers. The main objective of this article is to evaluate the two strong candidates, Russia and Turkey, based on short- and long-run diversification benefits they provide to global investors along with big four global finance centers (US, UK, Hong Kong, Singapore) in the world....

As the Internet has become the predominant mode of communication to disclose information about responsible business practices to various stakeholders, corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature has begun to discuss the potential benefits of using corporate websites to communicate CSR-related information to internal and external audiences. Thi...

According to literature, oil price shocks and volatility can have sector-specific impacts in the market. While these studies include most asset groups, the dynamic relationship between the oil market and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) has not been tested. This study examines the role of oil price shocks and volatility on six REIT categories:...

Istihdam gerek politika yapicilari gerekse akademisyenler tarafindan cok onemli ve yakindan takip edilen bir gostergedir. Istihdam degiskeninin zaman serisi ozellikleri kullanilan tahmin yontemleri ve ekonometrik modellerin gecerliligi acisindan onemli yer tutmaktadir. Bu makalede mevsimsellik gosteren bir degisken olan aylik istihdam serisinin dur...

We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration...

We examine and compare economic feasibilities and environmental effects of two energy investments options in Turkey: a NE-PP (nuclear power plant) in Mersin province on the Mediterranean coast and a large scale photovoltaic solar energy power plant (PV-PP) to be built in a governmentally reserved land area in mid-south Anatolia, namely Karapinar En...

Energy companies, alternative or traditional, have been in the center of both financial and political debates during the last few years all around the world. Extensive crises related to fossil fuel resources have triggered the creation of brand new sources while the further development of already-in-use alternative sources is highly encouraged. Ene...

This study examines the relationship between time-varying risk perceptions of investors towards major European countries and Turkey. In that manner, we first obtain the dynamic conditional correlations between the credit default spreads (CDSs) of Turkey and 13 European countries from September 2004 to April 2013. Next, we endogenously detect the sh...

Aylik sanayi uretim endeksi, hem politika yapicilar hem de akademisyenler tarafindan ekonometrik tahminlerde oldukca sik kullanilan bir zaman serisidir. Bu makalede, duzey, logaritmik, mevsimsellikten arindirilmis duzey ve mevsimsellikten arindirilmis logaritmik Turkiye sanayi endeksinin (TUIK) duraganlik ozellikleri hem geleneksel hem de dusuk orn...

This study examines volatility transmission between oil and selected agricultural commodity prices (wheat, corn, soybeans, and sugar). We apply the newly developed causality in variance test and impulse response functions to daily data from 01 January 1986 to 21 March 2011. In order to identify the impact of the food price crisis, the data are divi...

This paper investigates the role of oil prices in explaining the dynamics of selected emerging countries' exchange rates. Using daily data series, the study concludes that a rise in oil prices leads to significant appreciation of emerging economies' currencies against the U.S. dollar. The authors divide daily returns from January 3, 2003, to June 2...

This paper investigates whether global risk perceptions lead emerging market return volatilities. In so doing, we analyzed the period of interest in three parts to determine the effects of the changes in global risk perceptions on the volatility of emerging markets. We uncovered volatility spillover from risk perceptions to the MXEF returns before...

This paper investigates the role of oil prices in explaining the dynamics of selected emerging countries exchange rates. Using daily data series, the study concludes that a rise in oil price is leading to a significant appreciation in emerging economies currencies against the US dollar. In our study, we divide daily returns from 03/01/2003 to 02/06...

The purpose of the study is to analyze the relation between infant mortality rates, fertility rates, and income in an emerging economy, namely Turkey. We use infant mortality, fertility rates, and per capita Gross Domestic Product data for utilizing Toda and Yamamoto procedure for an analysis different from previous studies. The fertility and infan...

This paper investigates the information transmission mechanism between world oil, gold, silver, dollar/euro exchange rate markets, and volatility index (VIX) accommodating for global risk perceptions. We find that there is a unique long run equilibrium relationship, where gold, silver, exchange rate, and risk perceptions appear as long run forcing...

Oil prices are thought to have direct effect on agricultural prices followed by an indirect effect through the exchange rate. This paper examines the short- and long-run interdependence between world oil prices, lira–dollar exchange rate, and individual agricultural commodity prices (wheat, maize, cotton, soybeans, and sunflower) in Turkey. To this...

We examine the link between financial development and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1991 to 2005 using quarterly data. We use relatively new time series techniques that are less prone to bias to examine this relationship. We also construct a comprehensive financial development index using principal component analysis. When we control for...

The upward movement in oil and food prices in the 2000s has attracted interest in the information transmis-sion mechanism between the two markets. This paper investigates the volatility spillover between oil, food consumption item, and agricultural raw material price indexes for the period January 1980 to April 2008. The results of the Cheung-Ng pr...

While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibr...

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and stock returns accounting for the interest rates and inflation in Turkey between 1997:1 and 2008:6. The Toda-Yamamoto procedure is used to test long run Granger causality between real stock returns, real activity, and interest rates. Empirical results show that over the period we s...

This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung–Ng approach we discov...

This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond signific...

In this paper we examine the characteristics and stability of individual stock and portfolio betas of stocks listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) using samples of 500 individual stocks and 500 portfolios of 10 stocks each. We begin with a methodology similar to the basic event study methodology and collect data for the samples around 500 ran...

We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions, income, energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971–2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the v...

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a lon...