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Udaya Banda Konarasinghe

Udaya Banda Konarasinghe
Institute of Mathematics and Management,Sri Lanka

Master of Business Administration
Time Series Forecasting Applied Econometric Applied Epidemiology Prognostic Studies Technology Transfer Tourism Economic

About

40
Publications
4,190
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115
Citations
Introduction
Udaya Banda Konarasinghe, an award-winning Scientist has served as a Research Consultant and a Lecturer over the last decade. He is a distinguished researcher in the fields of, Tourism Management; Econometrics; Biological & Healthcare research. He is an expert in Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, made an unparalleled contribution to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Udaya and his fellow researcher developed two new forecasting techniques, named “Damped Circular Model and Forced Circular Model".
Additional affiliations
August 2012 - present
Institute of Mathematics &Management Sri Lanka
Position
  • Managing Director
Description
  • Scientist and Research Consultant
Education
January 2009 - March 2012
Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Field of study
  • Business Administration

Publications

Publications (40)
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 is the worst pandemic in the world after Swine Flu (2009-2010). Indonesia and the Philippines have reported the highest amount of infected cases among Southeast Asian countries. The behavior of the daily infected cases in Indonesia and the Philippines in the future might be doubtful. The patterns of the outbreak show trend and seasonal...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Since December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread from China and around the world. In Sri Lanka, as of December 29, there had been 586,183 confirmed cases and 14,944 deaths due to this viral infection. This study was performed to forecast the daily infected cases of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka by using Holt-Winters three parameter...
Article
Full-text available
The CPI attempts to quantify the overall price levels of goods and services in an economy and to measure the purchasing power of a respective country's currency unit. The CPI is used in the calculation of many key economic indicators that require a country's unit of currency measures, including estimates of income, earnings, productivity, output, a...
Article
Full-text available
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates whether the economy of a country is experiencing inflation, deflation, or stagflation. Changes of the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. There is an increasing trend of CPI of the USA. This study design forecasts CPI of the USA. Monthly CPI data of the USA for the period...
Article
Full-text available
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic when it became clear that the illness was severe and that it was spreading very fast over a wide area. As a result, there were more than 252 million infected cases and 5million death total reported globally after one year. The United Kingdom (UK) is the highly affected European...
Article
Full-text available
COVID-19 is the worst pandemic in the 21 st Century after the Swine Flu in 2009-2010. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic when it was spreading very fast over a wide area. Ukraine has been reported the 8 th highest European country and 3 rd highest Eastern European country grabbed by COVID-19. Ukraine exceeds 3.5...
Article
Full-text available
The periodic motion defines as the motion which repeats after a regular interval of time. The periodic motion in which there is the existence of a restoring force and the body moves along the same path to and fro about a definite point called equilibrium position/mean position is called oscillatory motion. The oscillatory motion could be either lin...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical composite indicator that measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. The prices of goods and services are often changed due to the varied dynamic situations within the country. It depends on the effectiveness of economic policies and various o...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The motion which repeats after a regular interval of time is defined as periodic motion. The periodic motion in which there is the existence of a restoring force and the body moves along the same path to and fro about a definite point called equilibrium position/mean position is called oscillatory motion. The oscillatory motion could be either line...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The UK has reported the 4 th highest infected cases globally. The UK exceeds 8.4 million cases since 22 nd January 2020 and still reporting a higher volume of daily infected cases. The future outbreak of the pandemic might be doubtful. The authorities should examine the future behavior of the outbreak and prepare to minimize the spread of the pande...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Ukraine has reported the 6 th highest European Union country grabbed by COVID-19. Ukraine exceeds 2.6 million cases since 22 nd January 2020 and still reporting an increasing trend with repeating the behavior. Due to the prevailing pandemic situation in the country, the future outbreak is doubtful. Identifying the future behavior of the outbreak is...
Article
Full-text available
were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) database. The pattern recognition of the daily cases examined by time series plots and Auto Correlation Function (ACF). The Sama Circular Model (SCM) and the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) were tested to forecast the daily infected cases. The models were validated b...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 originated from China in the year 2019 and grabbed more than 173,321, 279 human lives with a death total of more than 3,727,177 globally. Italy had been experienced with worst and the first European country severely hit by the COVID-19. At present daily infected cases shows a declining trend in Italy. Yet, the future is uncertain, it c...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 first appeared in 2019. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) reports there were 184,222,453 infected cases and 3,987,180 death total reported globally after one year. Argentina had been the second Latin American country severely hit by the COVID-19. The rate of daily infected cases in Argentina was 10%, approximately. Hence...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Consumer price index (CPI) is an economic indicator wont to measure inflation. It is useful to know the effectiveness of the economic policies of a country and for the decision-making process. The pandemic situation was highly affected by the economic growth globally. The Southeast Asian (SEA) region was highly infected by the COVID-19 pandemic...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) presented the effectiveness of the economic policies of a country. The prices of the basket are often changed due to the varied dynamic situations within the country. It happens due to the economic policies and various other factors including natural disasters. The rise of CPI is extremely low in Thailand comparative...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Indigenous knowledge or local knowledge is the unique knowledge confined to a particular geographical location, culture or society. It is rooted in a particular place and set of experiences, and generated by people living in those places. This knowledge is transmitted from generation to generation by oral, imitation or demonstration. Sri Lanka is o...
Article
Full-text available
Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia have reported a considerable amount of infected cases compared with other Southeast Asian countries and still reporting the infected cases. These countries located geographically as a belt. They are preparing to reopen and confirm the sleek function as usual but in doubts about the future behavior of the pandemic....
Article
Full-text available
Tourism is a fast-growing industry in Sri Lanka; as a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth. In light of that, the study was focused on identifying suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka T...
Article
Full-text available
Australia is one among the countries which neutralized the spread of COVID 19. Now they are waiting to reopen the state after locked down for several months. Objectives of the study are to estimate and forecast the amount of infected cases of COVID -19 in Victoria (Vic), South Australia (SA) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT), as they might be...
Article
Full-text available
India has recorded the second-highest infected cases of the Covid-19 in Asia and also the highest in South Asia, Brazil is the second-highest infected cases reported globally after the USA. The growing trend in daily cases of both countries could gain negative consequences on society. Booming of daily cases generate outnumbered of health care facil...
Article
Full-text available
A novel coronavirus was found in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. The World health organization (WHO) officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. The disease had spread well outside China. An increase in confirmed cases is very high in the USA, UK, and Russia. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to forecast the number of infected...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Indigenous knowledge or local knowledge is the unique knowledge confined to a particular geographical location, culture or society. It is rooted in a particular place and set of experiences, and generated by people living in those places. This knowledge is transmitted from generation to generation by oral, imitation or demonstration. Sri Lanka is o...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Philippines have reported the second highest amount of infected cases among Southeast Asian countries. The country exceeds 330,000 cases since 22 nd January 2020 and still reporting a high volume of infected cases. The outbreak of the pandemic in the future might be doubtful. The governors have to understand the future behavior of the outbreak...
Article
Full-text available
The Sama Circular Model (SCM) is a modern development in univariate time series. It is a powerful technique to capture wave-like patterns with the trend of a data series. Forecasting occupancy is very useful for the tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Anuradhapura is one of the leading ancient cities of Sri Lanka which is highly occupied by a foreign gu...
Article
Full-text available
The Southern Coast of Sri Lanka has been flooded with natural beauty with rich biodiversity attracted to the tourists for centuries. There is an uptrend of occupancy by foreign guest up to Galle and beyond after 2008. The increasing of night occupancy will increase the demand for tourism-related business. It creates competition of business and it c...
Article
Full-text available
Adolescents are the future of a country, a critical link between childhood and adulthood, characterized by significant physical, psychological and social transitions. Most dangerous drugs are mainly shown in positive attitudes on movies, advertisements, socially, etc. Literature revealed factors on adolescents taking dangerous drugs, which are medi...
Article
Full-text available
The South Coast of Sri has been an attraction to the tourists for centuries. Even today, the international tourism demand to the region is in the uptrend, resulting high occupancy in the region. The high occupancy increases the demand for accommodation. Hence, the hotel industry should adopt various management practices to maximize profits and opti...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Ancient Cities are highly occupied by domestic tourists after 2009. The high occupancy increases the demand for accommodation. Hence, the hotel industry should adopt various practices to maximize profits and minimize the risk. This can be achieved by accurate forecasting. But, there were least attempts on forecasting occupancy guest nights of d...
Article
Full-text available
The forecasting occupancy guest nights is an essential discipline in purchase decisions, expansion plans, staffing and maintenance of hotels at Hill Country in Sri Lanka. The high occupancy will increase the demand for accommodation. Therefore, the study was focused on forecasting occupancy guest nights of international tourist in Hill Country. Mon...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism is a fast-growing industry in Sri Lanka; as a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth. In light of that, the study was focused on identifying suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka T...
Article
There is a growth of tourist arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could cause either positive or negative effect on the country. Therefore, it is important to minimize the risk and maximize the benefits. To get the maximum benefits, it is vital to forecasting arrivals, hence, the study was focused on forecastin...
Article
Full-text available
There is a growth of tourist arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could cause either positive or negative effect on the country. Therefore, it is important to minimize the risk and maximize the benefits. To get the maximum benefits, it is vital to forecasting arrivals, hence, the study was focused on forecastin...
Article
Full-text available
This study focused on pattern recognition of tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from various regions in the world. Monthly time series data from January 2008 to December 2014 are used in this study. The regions selected for the study were the top four in market position. They are; Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Descriptive sta...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting plays a major role in tourism planning at all levels in both private and public sectors. Hence, finding appropriate forecasting techniques is essential. The current study was focused on modelling international tourist flows to Sri Lanka by considering the postwar period. Monthly arrival data from January 2010 to December 2014 was obtain...
Article
Full-text available
The forecasting tourist arrival is an essential discipline in planning, resource management, and other decision-making processes in micro and macro level. It facilitates to ensure the sustainable development by minimizing the risk to all aspects. There is a growth of arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could c...
Article
Full-text available
Income forecasting is an essential discipline in planning and other decision-making processes within any business. Fitting a suitable Lin-log model for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka is the objective of the study. Monthly income data utilized from January 2009 to December 2013. Data obtained from annual reports of Sri Lanka T...

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