Tyler Fricker

Tyler Fricker
Texas A&M University | TAMU · Department of Geography

PhD - Geography

About

21
Publications
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172
Citations
Introduction

Publications

Publications (21)
Article
On 12 April 2020, a tornadic quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) produced two EF-3 tornadoes in Ouachita Parish, Louisiana in close proximity to instrumentation operated by the University of Louisiana Monroe’s (ULM) Atmospheric Science program. In addition to the in situ environmental information, a high-resolution aerial damage survey was conduc...
Article
Full-text available
Tornadoes are among the most violent hazards in the world capable of producing mass casualties. Much of what is known about the relationship between tornadoes and casualties—injuries and fatalities—is driven by quantitative methods that often omit individual community factors. In response, here we present a place-based analysis of tornado activity...
Article
Tornadoes account for nearly one fifth of all natural hazard fatalities in the United States, yet there exist no general estimates of casualty rates across the country. Here tornado casualty rates are estimated for all casualty-producing tornadoes over the period 1995–2016 using tornado level information related to the population and total housing...
Article
Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. There remain gaps in our understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. Here a framework is provided for systematically identifying the most unusually devastating tornadoes, defined as those where the obse...
Article
Full-text available
Storm reports show an upward trend in the power of tornadoes. Quantifying the magnitude of the increase is difficult given diurnal and seasonal influences on tornadoes embedded within natural variations and made worse by changes in practices for rating damage. Here the authors solve this problem by fitting a statistical model to a metric of tornado...
Preprint
Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. However, there remains gaps in the understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. Here a framework for systematically identifying the most unusually devastating tornadoes, defined as those where the observ...
Article
The southeastern United States experiences some of the greatest tornado fatality rates in the world, with a peak in the western portion of the state of Tennessee. Understanding the physical and social characteristics of the area that may lead to increased fatalities is a critical research need. Residents of 12 Tennessee counties from three regions...
Preprint
Tornadoes create a threat to human life. Knowing the conditions that make people vulnerable to this threat is vitally important. Yet, socioeconomic and demographic data are not consistently available at the tornado level making it hard to obtain this knowledge. In response to this limitation, here a method to estimate socioeconomic and demographic...
Article
A recent study showed the importance of tornado energy as a factor in a model for tornado deaths and injuries (casualties). The model was additive under the assumption of uniform threat. Here, we test two explicit hypotheses designed to examine this additive assumption. The first hypothesis concerns energy dissipation's effect conditional on popula...
Preprint
Storm reports over the past decades show a clear trend toward more powerful tornadoes from longer and wider damage paths and higher ratings. Quantifying the magnitude of this increase is important for understanding its possible connection to climate change but doing so is difficult given strong diurnal and seasonal influences on tornado activity wi...
Preprint
A recent study showed the importance of tornado strength as a factor in a model for tornado deaths and injuries (casualties). The model was additive under the assumption of uniform threat. Here we test two explicit hypotheses designed to examine this additive assumption. The first hypothesis concerns energy dissipation's effect conditional on popul...
Article
Full-text available
This paper describes a dasymetric technique to spatially apportion casualty counts from tornado events in the US Storm Prediction Center's database. Apportionment is a calculation of the number of casualties within the area of the tornado damage path and with respect to the underlying population density. The method is illustrated with raster grids...
Preprint
Risk factors for tornado casualties are well known. Less understood is how and to what degree these factors, after controlling for strength and the number of people affected, vary over space and time. Here we fit models to casualty counts from all casualty-producing tornadoes during the period 1995-2016 in order to quantify the interactions between...
Preprint
This paper describes a dasymetric technique to spatially apportion casualty counts from tornado events in the U.S. Storm Prediction Center's database. Apportionment is performed with respect to the proportion of damage path area and to the underlying population density. The method is illustrated with raster grids on tornadoes occurring between 1955...
Article
Full-text available
Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified...
Article
Full-text available
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States wh...
Article
Full-text available
The destructive impact tornadoes have on communities has sparked interest in predicting the risk of impacts on seasonal time scales. Here, the authors demonstrate how to build statistical models for predicting tornado rates. They test the models with tornado counts accumulated over a 45-year period aggregated to counties in the State of Oklahoma an...
Article
Full-text available
The statistical relationship between elevation roughness and tornado activity is quantified using a spatial model that controls for the effect of population on the availability of reports. Across a large portion of the central Great Plains the model shows that areas with uniform elevation tend to have more tornadoes on average than areas with varia...
Article
Tornadoes can cause catastrophic destruction. Here total kinetic energy (TKE) as a metric of destruction is computed from the fraction of the tornado path experiencing various damage levels and a characteristic wind speed for each level. The fraction of the path is obtained from a model developed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that combines...
Article
How climate change might affect tornadoes remains an open scientific question. Climatological studies are often contested due to inconsistencies in the available data. Statistical methods are used to overcome some of the data limitations. A few of these methods including using the proportion of tornadoes occurring on big tornado days, estimating to...
Article
Data from some recent tornado damage assessments are used to compute the percentage of damage path by enhanced Fujita (EF) rating and to estimate kinetic energy. Only a small fraction of the total area gets the highest damage rating and this fraction is lower than a model used by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. However, estimates of kinetic...

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