Towhidul Islam

Towhidul Islam
University of Guelph | UOGuelph · Department of Marketing and Consumer Studies

Ph.D

About

58
Publications
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3,313
Citations

Publications

Publications (58)
Article
Research has long debated the effectiveness of socio-demographics in understanding purchase behavior, with mixed conclusions. The appeal of socio-demographic data for customer relationship marketing is based on its low acquisition cost and the growing array of variables on which marketers can condition messages and offers. We reinvestigate the valu...
Article
Volumetric Choice Experiments (VCEs) are designed to capture purchase quantities rather than a single, discrete choice. They can be seen as an extension of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) where individuals decide how many units of a specific good or service to buy/use rather than deciding whether to buy/use it or not. There is different informat...
Article
Full-text available
Timing a multinational firm’s entry into a new country is a pivotal decision with long-term impact on the firm’s overall performance, thus a deeper understanding of the drivers of the decision and their interrelationship can yield significant managerial benefits. We explore the mediating role of market potential by decomposing the total effects of...
Article
An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation of mobile telephony benefits numerous agents including suppliers of network and consumer equipment, regulators, and network planners. We consider the estimation and prediction of the time interval between the international introduction of a generation of mobile tel...
Article
The Brazilian Alcohol Program promotes ethanol as an alternative fuel to gasoline. Policymakers want to know the effect of relative fuel prices on demand for gasoline-fuelled and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). Considering vehicle engines dedicated to gasoline, ethanol or flex in the Brazilian market, we use market share models to estimate fuel p...
Article
The transportation sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of greenhouse gases emissions (GHG); thus, incisive policies are necessary to mitigate the sector’s effect on climate change. Promoting alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) is an essential strategy to reduce GHG emissions in the short term. Here, we study the effects of governmental incentive...
Article
Do we use the same information to decide what we like and what we do not like? Best-worst scaling—where respondents select their most and their least preferred option from a set of options—is an efficient method for obtaining information of direct relevance to this question. Many best-worst scaling applications use multinomial logit (MNL) models to...
Article
Our objective is to decompose the influence of the economic wealth on the time to sales take-off into a direct effect and an indirect effect through time to introduction. We use a traditional regression based and an advanced counterfactual framework for our analysis, based on adoption data for four generations of mobile phone from 172 countries. Ou...
Article
Best-worst scaling (BWS) is a method that asks individuals to choose the most and the least preferred option from a set of available options. There has been extensive discussion and evaluation of the use of scores (data summaries) in the analysis of such data. Here we motivate, summarize, and compare the usefulness of two such score measures: the a...
Article
In this paper, we report on a study of student satisfaction with university subjects and teaching. Quantitative analysis of student perceptions of university subjects traditionally has been based on instruments containing a list of items (statements) to which students respond in an item-by-item manner using Likert-type rating scales. The main purpo...
Article
Introduction: E-cigarettes present a formidable challenge to regulators given their variety and the rapidly evolving nicotine market. The current study sought to examine the influence of e-cigarette product characteristics on consumer perceptions and trial intentions among Canadians. Methods: An online discrete choice experiment was conducted wi...
Article
Full-text available
The tobacco industry uses various aspects of cigarette packaging design to market to specific groups. The current study examined the relative importance of five cigarette packaging attributes-pack structure (e.g., "slims"), brand, branding, warning label size, and price-on perceptions of product taste, harm, and interest in trying, among young fema...
Article
Full-text available
Given the length of time that has elapsed since the IJF Special Issue on Telecommunications Forecasting in 2002 and our reliance on information and communications technology (ICT), it is now appropriate to review the flow of benefits from forecasting to ICT and from ICT to forecasting. The importance of ICT is demonstrated by its accounting for 8.2...
Chapter
The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the temporal stability of Case 3 best-worst scaling – that is, discrete choice experiments. Temporal stability matters, because, if the individuals who participate in DCEs significantly alter their preferences for the same choice options over time, it suggests that some time-dependent or event-associate...
Article
For fourteen European countries, we model the usage of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in electricity generation within a multi-country growth curve framework. We consider a range of covariates as possible determinants of the differences in growth rates of RET usage between countries and over time. An effective way of capturing the differences...
Article
Our objective is to explain the differences in the technology diffusion of 3G mobile phones at the firm level. Using a firm level diffusion model, we investigate: the effect of social globalization on within- and across-brand word-of-mouth communications; the impact of competitive fractionalization on the probability of adoption; and the effect of...
Article
We review and discuss recent developments in best–worst scaling (BWS) that allow researchers to measure items or objects on measurement scales with known properties. We note that BWS has some distinct advantages compared with other measurement approaches, such as category rating scales or paired comparisons. We demonstrate how to use BWS to measure...
Article
We are concerned with micro-generation, individual households generating electricity using a renewable technology. We focus on modeling the adoption probability of photo-voltaic solar panels by households. Using data from Ontario, Canada where a generous feed-in-tariff is available to households generating electricity from solar panels, we measure...
Article
Louviere et al. (2008, J. of Choice Modelling, 1, 126–163) present two main empirical examples in which a respondent rank orders the options in various choice sets by repeated best, then worst, choice. They expand the ranking data to various “implied” choices in subsets and fit the expanded data in various ways; they do not present models of the or...
Article
Extant research suggests that when marketers introduce products with functions that span multiple categories, consumers tend to generate beliefs in line with only a single category. This has been regarded as a major marketing challenge because it leads consumers to ignore key attributes from the product's supplementary category. Contrary to this pr...
Article
Prior research on brand equity suggests that consumers use brands as signals to reduce uncertainty and perceived risk. Erdem and Swait (1998) developed a conceptual framework based on information economics and signaling theory to explain how equity is created, maintained and transferred over time that involves seven theoretical constructs. This pap...
Article
To discover differences in technology diffusion of 3G mobile phones across countries, we investigate the impact of market factors, measured by competitive fractionalization, and economic globalization across countries using a multi-country diffusion model. We incorporate comprehensive socioeconomic and telecommunications data covering 35 geographic...
Article
We use two approaches to model the hazard probability of the time-to-sales takeoff for cellular analog telephony to determine the impact of three market factors: price, number of competitors, and number of competing standards. We compare a fully parametric hazard model with discrete-time survival mixture analysis (DTSMA) in our study of data drawn...
Article
We conducted a choice experiment to investigate whether retirement savers follow simple portfolio theory when choosing investments. We modeled experimental survey data on 693 participants using a scale-adjusted version of the latent class choice model. Results show that underlying variability in response was explained by age and “risk profile” scor...
Article
We conduct a choice experiment to investigate the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on retirement saver investment choice and risk aversion. Analysis of estimated individual risk parameters shows a small increase in mean risk aversion between the relatively tranquil period of early 2007 and the crisis conditions of late 2008. Investment prefer...
Article
We conducted a choice experiment to investigate whether retirement savers follow simple portfolio theory when choosing investments. We modeled experimental survey data on 693 participants using a scale-adjusted version of the latent class choice model. Results show that underlying variability in response was explained by age and “risk profile” scor...
Article
This study uses a stated choice-based conjoint model to explore the marketing preferences of small-scale producers of fresh fruits and vegetables in Honduras. A total of eight attributes, proposed in hypothetical contracts to farmers, are evaluated. About two-thirds of farmers show preferences for traditional marketing systems, whereas one-third pr...
Article
Full-text available
Preferences of tourists and visitors are varied in a number of markets, making it difficult for managers to understand how underlying segments might respond to changes in service offerings. Market segments differ in preferences for specific features, as well as how consistently they make their choices. In this article, we illustrate recent developm...
Article
Research in positioning strategy suggests that a product schema, when presented in a moderately incongruent fashion, can evoke a greater degree of positive evaluation than if presented congruently with consumer expectations. This phenomenon has been coined the schema congruity effect. To date, one of the limitations of the phenomenon is that it has...
Article
We develop a model of the evolution of inter-purchase times for a consumer-packaged product. After the introduction of the product, a consumer waits to make the initial purchase, then either waits to repurchase or decides not to. A repurchasing consumer repeats this decision process. The components of the model are the repurchase probability and th...
Article
Considering the dynamic changes in agrifood systems in developing countries, this study uses a stated choice model to explore the marketing preferences of small-scale producers of fresh fruits and vegetables in Honduras. Eight attributes, proposed in hypothetical contracts to farmers, are evaluated. The results suggest that farmers have strong mark...
Article
Researchers have observed that contrary to the high expectations for online communications, gender stereotyping has not disappeared in this medium, and is sometimes even accentuated. This study aimed to understand the effect of gender over instant messenger, a relatively new and unexplored medium. Instant messenger was chosen because it is a medium...
Article
This paper presents the results of stated-preference, discrete choice experiments designed to examine potential consumer reactions to various options emerging in the embryonic space tourism industry. The research investigated choice behaviour between four types of space tourism: high-altitude jet fighter flights, atmospheric zero-gravity flights, s...
Article
We show how to combine statistically efficient ways to design discrete choice experiments based on random utility theory with new ways of col-lecting additional information that can be used to expand the amount of available choice information for modeling the choices of individual decision makers. Here we limit ourselves to problems involving gener...
Article
We review the measurement of product attribute importance, and find little consensus in definition or measurement methods. We compare four measurement methods: 1) two direct methods whereby respondents report the importance of attributes using best–worst scaling or constant sum scales, and 2) two indirect methods derived from discrete choice experi...
Article
In discrete choice experiments, design decisions are crucial for determining data quality and costs. While high statistical efficiency designs are desirable, they may come at a price if they increase the cognitive burden for respondents. We address this problem by designing 44 experiments that systematically vary numbers of attributes and attribute...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the impact of attribute presence/absence in choice experiments using covariance heterogeneity models and random coefficient models. Results show that attribute presence/absence impacts both mean utility (systematic components) and choice variability (random components). Biased mean effects can occur by not accounting for choice...
Article
The wealth of research into modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovations is impressive and confirms its continuing importance as a research topic. The main models of innovation diffusion were established by 1970. (Although the title implies that 1980 is the starting point of the review, we allowed ourselves to relax this constraint when n...
Article
To meet this challenge, we evaluate in this study the performance of an adequate modelling approach (1) based on Innovation Diffusion Models, i.e. the Linearised Gompertz Model using the Pooling Single Generation Multi-Country Data. This approach is evaluated for the SMS market which for most opera- tors represents at least 80 percent of data reven...
Article
The structure of the dependence between the times to adoption by a country of two related innovations, the fax and the cellular telephone, is modelled in two stages. The first stage is the choice of density function for the time to adoption. The second stage is describing the dependence relation. For the first stage, a Weibull density function is u...
Article
Forecasting the diffusion of innovations in the telecommunications sector is a constantly recurring problem for national providers. The problem is characterised by short data series making the estimation of model parameters unreliable. However, the same innovation will be diffusing simultaneously in other national markets, although with a different...
Article
Full-text available
The paper is concerned with supply constraints in the provision of telecommunications services. As a measure of supply constraint we use the average waiting time for telephone connections. Duration models are employed to analyze a panel data set for 28 countries. In addition to economic variables, we consider the role of technical efficiency in cau...
Article
A large proportion of the world telecommunications market can be characterized as supply restricted. In ITU (1999) official waiting lists numbered about 50 million worldwide with an average waiting time of two years. More than 100 countries had not eliminated the waiting list for telephone connections and hence a supply restricted market prevailed...
Article
The selection of an S-shaped trend model is a common step in attempts to model and forecast the diffusion of innovations. From the innovation-diffusion literature on model selection, forecasting, and the uncertainties associated with forecasts, we derive four principles. 1. No single diffusion model is best for all processes. 2. Unconditional forec...
Article
Replacement sales represent about 75% of total sales for many consumer durables, thus modelling this component well should lead to better overall forecasting. This paper surveys and evaluates forecasting models for total sales of durables which include both a diffusion component and a replacement component. The diffusion process, describing the beh...
Article
The paper identifies 29 models that the literature suggests are appropriate for technological forecasting. These models are divided into three classes according to the timing of the point of inflexion in the innovation or substitution process. Faced with a given data set and such a choice, the issue of model selection needs to be addressed. Evidenc...
Article
In many cases of technological development, successive generations of a technology evolve, each more efficient than its predecessor. It has been assumed when modeling and forecasting the adoption of these technologies that the market reaction to each generation was similar. Using the terminology of the Bass model, this similarity is encapsulated in...
Article
The problem of producing medium- to long-term forecasts of the market for business telephones is examined. Growth curves are generally appropriate for forecasting developing markets. However, this market is particularly sensitive to the state of business confidence and the feasibility of incorporating explanatory economic variables into the forecas...
Article
Since growth curves are often used to produce medium- to long-term forecasts for planning purposes, it is obviously of value to be able to associate an interval with the forecast trend. The problems in producing prediction intervals are well described by Chatfield. The additional problems in this context are the intrinsic non-linearity of the estim...
Article
The primary objective of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the increasingly wide range of growth curve models. Seventeen models are used to forecast the development of telecommunications markets, represented by 25 time series describing telephone penetration in 15 different countries. Forecasting performance is measured by roo...
Conference Paper
Highlights some of the major problem areas which deserves considerable attention for both short term and long term planning and suggest some possible options. The discussion covers the following aspects of rural telecommunications: determining a forecasting technique for demand growth; socio-economic benefits; digital techniques and network model;...

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