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Publications (166)
After adopting the Paris Agreement, many countries (including developing countries) have started to develop targets aimed at achieving net-zero emissions to realize a “decarbonized society” in response to the 1.5 °C target. Effective plans and actions need to be urgently developed on how to achieve the ambitious targets associated with these target...
Vietnam’s Prime Minister has committed the country to developing
and implementing strong greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures with its own resources, with the cooperation and support of the international community, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper introduces three models, Extended
Snapshot, AIM/Enduse and AIM/CGE, that...
Many information and communications technology (ICT) services have become commonplace worldwide and are certain to continue to spread faster than before, particularly along with the commercialization of 5G and movement restrictions in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Although there is a concern that ICT equipment usage may increase power consumpt...
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity and spatial extent of extreme climate events, and thus is a key concern for food production. However, food insecurity is usually analysed under a mean climate change state. Here we combine crop modelling and climate scenarios to estimate the effects of extreme climate events on future...
The average household size in China has declined over the past few decades and will continue to drop, which leads to a loss of scale economies. Its implications for electricity demand and sustainability could be especially profound because of the high ecological/environmental intensity of electricity in China and the expected boom in demand. Using...
National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incom...
China’s economic growth has been largely relying on the consumption of coal. The country has realized that its economic development has to be free from dependence on fossil fuels. On 30 June 2015, China submitted its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)’ in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21). One of the important actions in C...
Actions tackling with climate change can cause co-benefits and trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) concerned with air pollution, water scarcity, food security, land use, and sustainable energy. Such interactions can be greatly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. The impacts of socioeconomic conditions on multiple SDGs have not...
This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and...
Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and pr...
In this paper, we adopt a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of achieving Taiwan’s target of nationally determined contributions (NDC). We consider two types of scenarios: one implemented with the emission trading system (ETS) and the other designed under cap without trade. Our findings suggest that Taiwan’s NDC target...
The Paris Agreement set long-term global climate goals to pursue stabilization of the global mean temperature increase at below 2 °C (the so-called 2 °C goal). Individual countries submitted their own short-term targets, mostly for the year 2030. Meanwhile, the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs) were designed to help set multiple societal go...
Improving energy efficiency is an important strategy for reducing energy demand and carbon emissions. Numerous studies reveal that improvements in energy efficiency lead to reductions in the total energy demand and the enhancement of economic growth. However, mainstream papers have adopted top-down or bottom-up approaches to investigate energy effi...
Background
The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Thailand intends to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 to 25% from the projected business as usual level by 2030 with the deployment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency improvement measures in both the supply and demand sectors. However, in order to contribute to...
Bioenergy plays an important role in low greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. Among various possible sources of bioenergy, dedicated bio‐crops could contribute to most of the potential. However, large scale bio‐crop deployment raises sustainability concerns. Policies to alleviate the pressure of bio‐crops on the terrestrial environment can affec...
The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century l...
Japan’s long-term mitigation target in 2050 is to reduce GHG emission by 80% compared to 1990 level. However, after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011, availability of nuclear power in the future becomes uncertain. Complying with the discussion about Japan’s new energy policy, nuclear power may phase out toward 2050. This st...
Process-based simulations of global-scale economic impact of climate change are computationally costly. This limits the number of scenarios that can be explored in the assessment. To overcome this difficulty, in this study, we developed and tested the emulators which mimic the behavior of the simulators with much lower computational cost. The devel...
Information on global future gridded emissions and land-use scenarios is critical for many climate and global environmental modelling studies. Here, we generated such data using an integrated assessment model (IAM) and have made the data publicly available. Although the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) offers similar data, our...
Climate change mitigation involves reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which is expensive, particularly under stringent mitigation targets. The co-benefits of reducing air pollutants and improving human health are often ignored, but can play significant roles in decision-making. In this study, we quantified the co-benefit...
Climate change increases workers' exposure to heat stress. To prevent heat-related illnesses, according to occupational-health recommendations, labor capacity must be reduced. However, this preventive measure is expected to be costly, and the costs are likely to rise as the scale and scope of climate change impacts increase over time. Shifting the...
The Paris Agreement has confirmed that the ultimate climate policy goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Moving the goal from 2 °C to 1.5 °C calls for much more concerted effort, and presents greater challenges and costs. T...
China has been through a rapid development process of expanding tertiary industries and urbanization. Due to the aggressive expansion of service building space, energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the service sector are increasing significantly. In this study, we concentrate on China's service sector and analyze CO2 emissions from six sub-sec...
In recent years, the concept of nearly zero energy buildings (NZEB) has gained wide attention in developed countries. Because of its contribution to achieving full decarbonization in the building sector, NZEB is starting to become a new design target of future buildings and an important means to achieve the 1.5 degrees goal in building sector. This...
This study assesses Japan's emission pathways aimed at net-zero emissions by 2050, as implied by the Paris Agreement's global climate goal of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C. Based on a scenario analysis performed using AIM/Enduse [Japan], Japan's energy supply sector requires a radical transformation, including reliance on...
This study assesses implications of the target reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 included in Japan's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for long-term low emission pathways toward 2050, as well as feasibility of the 2030 target itself using AIM/Enduse model. Scenario analysis by 2030 suggests that implementing the INDC could consoli...
In preparation for the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) held in December 2015, the participating parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to submit their own targets for national greenhouse gas emission reductions and mitigation, and adaptation actions that they intended to take under the post-2020 international...
Many studies have reported associations between ozone pollution and morbidity and mortality, but few studies focus on the health and economic effects at China's regional level. This study evaluates the ozone pollution-related health impacts on China's national and provincial economy and compares them with the impacts from PM2.5. We also explore the...
In 2015 China submitted its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21. China’s INDC called for several low carbon actions toward 2030, and one of the important actions by 2030 in the China’s INDC is to lower carbon dioxid...
This book summarizes assessments of the Paris Agreement to provide an excellent introduction to this research field. The AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling /Computable General Equilibrium) model, which is the core of AIM modeling framework, is used for the assessment. The first part focuses on global issues, presenting both short-term (a few...
This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (...
The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the nearterm emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asi...
This chapter documents a main model structure and how to implement scenario assumptions for the analysis of long-term climate mitigation taken by AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium). There are six aspects which are going to be discussed. First, macroeconomy, labor, and population treatment are explained. Second, e...
This chapter describes the (1) model structure of AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium), (2) data structure (social accounting matrix (SAM)), and (3) formula and list of sets, parameters, equations, and variables. The aim of this chapter is to present all equations written in the model which is used in the other cha...
Each country's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC intergenerational and interregional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emission target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using AIM/CGE (Asian-Pac...
This chapter provides an overview of Indonesia's current economy, energy sector, land use, and climate policies. We assessed Indonesia's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) using an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium model coupled with an agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) model. The model sh...
On 1st October 2015, Thailand had submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20-25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the Un...
The objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA) include limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C ("the 2 °C goal") and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C ("the 1.5 °C goal"). The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the relevant scientific knowledge on the risks from climate change correspo...
Under the Paris Agreement, parties would set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change risk. The international carbon emissions trading (ET) is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here we show the benefit of ET under both NDCs. The results show that the global welfare lo...
With fast development, it is not easy for China to achieve carbon reduction targets only by traditional command and control measures (e.g., the measures for energy-efficiency). Carbon tax is advocated as one effective complementary measure and has high possibility to be implemented for China’s future low carbon development. Under such a circumstanc...
Thailand had summited its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016. Its INDCs stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20-25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by using mainly domestic renewable energy resources and energy efficiency improvement....
The Chinese government has committed to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit gross domestic product by 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030. In order to achieve this commitment, various measures should be taken. Due to the complex relationship between carbon emission and economic development, it is critical to quantify the impacts of different m...
This study analyzes emissions pathways of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) and evaluates cobenefits and tradeoffs among GHGs, air-pollutions and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) emissions, while taking mitigation actions for achieving a 2 global temperature change limit above pre-industrial levels, so called the 2 target. This study focuses on the...
The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness...
We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 and 1.5 C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the intertemporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived und...
We estimated global future industrial water withdrawal (IWW) by considering socioeconomic driving forces, climate mitigation, and technological improvements, and by using the output of the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. We carried out this estimation in three steps. First, we developed a sector- and re...
The residential sector accounts for the second or third share of final energy consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in both The Republic of Korea and in China. Energy service demand in the residential sector in these countries is influenced by climate and economic circumstances. However, in previous studies, such regional disparities are o...
In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually d...
.pdf file includes 1) regional and sector classification of AIM/CGE, 2) description of population and GDP downscaling method, 3) main drivers of sulfur emissions and 4) supporting figures of results.
(PDF)
This study analyzed the role of low-carbon energy technologies in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of Indonesia’s energy sector by 2030. The aim of this study was to provide insights into the Indonesian government’s approach to developing a strategy and plan for mitigating emissions and achieving Indonesia’s emission reduction targets by 2030,...
Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC intergenerational and interregional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emission target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using AIM/CGE (Asian-Pac...
This chapter provides an overview of Indonesia’s current economy, energy sector, land use, and climate policies. We assessed Indonesia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) using an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium model coupled with an agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) model. The model sh...
Japan submitted its (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDC) that is 26% reduction of GHG in 2030 compared with the 2013 level on July 2015. In this analysis, Japan’s NDC is assessed using the technology selection model (AIM/Enduse) and the computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) developed by AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model...
This study investigates the options and sectors that are essential for China to achieve carbon emissions peak by 2030. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to generate 14 scenarios from a scenario matrix incorporating three levels of carbon constraints and four options of low-carbon measures. Results suggest that if there is...
On 1st October 2015, Thailand had submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the Un...
Under the Paris Agreement, parties would set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change risk. The international carbon emissions trading (ET) is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here we show the benefit of ET under both NDCs. The results show that the global welfare lo...
The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the As...
This chapter describes the (1) model structure of AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium), (2) data structure (social accounting matrix (SAM)), and (3) formula and list of sets, parameters, equations, and variables. The aim of this chapter is to present all equations written in the model which is used in the other cha...
This chapter documents a main model structure and how to implement scenario assumptions for the analysis of long-term climate mitigation taken by AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium). There are six aspects which are going to be discussed. First, macroeconomy, labor, and population treatment are explained. Second, e...
This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (...
This book analyzes the roles of technologies and their prevalence in implementing intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), estimates the economic impacts and co-benefits of INDCs, clarifies the gaps between the current INDCs and the long-term target of the Paris Agreement to stay well below 2 °C, and investigates measures to narrow the...
The objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA) include limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C (“the 2 °C goal”) and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (“the 1.5 °C goal”). The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the relevant scientific knowledge on the risks from climate change correspo...
Changes in crop yield due to future climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and prices in the agriculture sector, as well as macroeconomics. While there has been much research into food prices and food security using economic models, there is little research on macroeconomic effects. Therefore, this study clarifies the...
This study estimates ancillary effects of climate change mitigation actions on emissions of air pollutants and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) as well as cost accompanying introduction of countermeasures. The results indicate that climate change mitigation actions which can be introduced under 125 USD/tCO2 of carbon price inhibit emissions of...
The effect of the climate change on the worktime reduction due to heat stresses can produce serious economic impact. In this study, we investigated two possible adaptation measures, i.e. shifting work time and lowering work intensity by machinerization. Future workable hours are estimated based on a recommendation to prevent heat-related injuries....
We investigated the key mitigation options for achieving the mid-term target for carbon emission reduction in Indonesia. A computable general equilibrium model coupled with a land-based mitigation technology model was used to evaluate specific mitigation options within the whole economic framework. The results revealed three primary findings: (1) I...
The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the As...
We developed a global land-use allocation model that can be linked to integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a coarser spatial resolution. Using the model, we performed a downscaling of the IAMs' regional aggregated land-use projections to obtain a spatial land-use distribution, which could subsequently be used by Earth system models for global e...
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s40064-016-3235-9.].
This paper performs energy model hindcasting which compared the historical energy simulation results with the observations. We used one of the Integrated Assessment Models and simulated global historical energy consumption from 1981 to 2010 associated with exogenous socioeconomic assumptions, as is typically performed for future scenario. The simul...
Each country's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific I...
Toward the achievement of the 2 °C target, Japan has set several GHG mitigation targets after ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. In 2008, in order to discuss the GHG mitigation target in 2020 at COP15 held in Copenhagen, the committee on the mid- and long-term target in Japan was organized at the Cabinet Secretariat. At that discussion, the proposed six...
