Todd Rosenstock

• PhD Agroecology
• Principal Scientist at The Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT

Nitrogen (N) use in intensive agriculture can degrade groundwater resources. However, considerable time lags between groundwater recharge and extraction complicate source attribution and remedial responses. We construct a historic N mass balance of two agricultural regions of California to understand trends and drivers of past and present N loading...

Accountability and adaptive management of recent global agreements such as the Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Climate Agreement, will in part rely on the ability to track progress toward the social and environmental targets they set. Current metrics and monitoring systems, however, are not yet up to the task. We argue that there is an impe...

Climate variability is a major source of risk to smallholder farmers and pastoralists, particularly in dryland regions. A growing body of evidence links climate-related risk to the extent and the persistence of rural poverty in these environments. Stochastic shocks erode smallholder farmers' long-term livelihood potential through loss of productive...

Significance Explaining correlations across space of cyclic dynamics in ecology is a fundamental challenge. We apply ideas from statistical physics, originally used to explain the behavior of magnets, to a dataset on yield from pistachio trees, obtaining a robust description and potential explanation for the generation of spatial correlations in cy...

Human activities change the structure and function of the environment with cascading impacts on human health, a concept known as “planetary health.” Agroforestry—the management of trees with crops and livestock—alters microclimates, hydrology, biogeochemistry, and biodiversity. Besides the nutritional benefits of increased fruit consumption, howeve...

Context: Accurately projecting crop yields under climate change is essential for understanding potential impacts and planning of agricultural adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Crop growth models and machine learning (ML) are often used, but their effectiveness is limited by data availability, precision, and geographic coverage in SSA. Obje...

Information on the effects of changing agricultural management on crop and livestock performance is critical for developing evidence-based policies, investments, and programs. Evidence for Resilient Agriculture (ERA) v1.0.1 presents a dataset that harmonizes and aggregates 112,859 observations from 2,011 agricultural studies taken place in Africa b...

Tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation requires documentation of countries’ intentions, against which future progress can be measured. The extent to which existing national policy documents provide adequate baselines is unclear. We evaluated the adequacy of African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (N = 53) and National Ad...

Extensive and strategic investments are needed to adapt African agriculture to climate change. In 2020, US$2.8 billion were committed to adaptation in the agriculture, forestry and land use sector1. This figure is likely to rise as the public and private sectors focus efforts on national commitments towards the Paris Agreement (the so-called Paris...

The expansion of agroforestry could provide substantial climate change mitigation (up to 0.31 Pg C yr−1), comparable to other prominent natural climate solutions such as reforestation. Yet, climate-focused agroforestry efforts grapple with ambiguity about which agroforestry actions provide mitigation, uncertainty about the magnitude of that mitigat...

Livestock production supports economic growth, jobs and nutrition, but contributes to and is vulnerable to climate change. A transition is thus needed for livestock systems to become more sustainable and climate resilient, with clear positive effects on the Sustainable Development Goals. It is unclear, however, where the global community should inv...

Context: Rapid economic development in East Africa is matched by extremely dynamic smallholder livelihoods. Objective: To quantify the changes in poverty of smallholder farmers, to evaluate the potential of farm and off-farm activities to alleviate poverty, and to evaluate the potential barriers to poverty alleviation. Methods: The analyses we...

Our food systems have performed well in the past, but they are failing us in the face of climate change and other challenges. This book tells the story of why food system transformation is needed, how it can be achieved and how research can be a catalyst for change. Written by a global interdisciplinary team of researchers, it brings together persp...

The collective dynamics of chaotic oscillators has drawn considerable attention in numerous fields, including agriculture and forestry. The alternate bearing of tree crops is a phenomenon in which a year of heavy yield is followed by a year of light yield. This phenomenon has been conventionally investigated using a tent map known as a resource bud...

Current livestock production systems support economic growth, jobs, and nutrition but contribute to and are vulnerable to climate change. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals will require transitioning to climate-resilient and low emissions livestock production. It is unclear, however, how the global community should invest in adapting and mit...

National-scale carbon footprints of livestock production are commonly computed from a set of production system characteristics that serve as inputs for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission models. We evaluated the feasibility of using such equations at a finer scale to derive a simple farm-scale indicator of emission intensity (milk yield per head). Using...

The global food system is failing to deliver sufficient and nutritious food to all, while damaging the earth and unsustainably drawing down its resources. We argue that trees and forests are essential to solving these challenges. We outline the current contributions of trees and forests to the global food system and present recommendations to lever...

Both global poverty and hunger have increased in recent years, endangering progress towards accomplishing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1 and 2. The regression has been most pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Meeting the SDG targets requires achieving resilient farm productivity. Although many farm management technologies exist to impro...

Background Decisions regarding the conversion of land from an existing crop to bioenergy crops are critical for the sustainable production of both food and fuels. This study seeks to establish criteria for delineating land as “economically marginal”, and thus suited for growing switchgrass. Methods In this case study of an Illinois agricultural fi...

The collective dynamics of chaotic oscillators has drawn considerable attention in numerous fields, including agriculture and forestry. The alternate bearing of tree crops is a phenomenon in which a year of heavy yield is followed by a year of light yield. This phenomenon has been conventionally investigated using a tent map known as a resource bud...

National governments across Sub-Saharan Africa include climate-smart agriculture (CSA) - context-specific interventions that support resilience, productivity, and climate mitigation-in plans and policies and strategies to jointly address climate change, agricultural production and rural livelihood goals. This paper synthesizes the evidence on field...

Nonlinear physics and agroecosystems can be of great relevance in the synchronisations of chaotic oscillators. The endogenous dynamics of the seed production of perennial plant species which include alternate bearing and masting, portray typical synchronisation patterns in nature and can be modelled using a tent map known as a resource budget model...

Collective dynamics of chaotic oscillators has attracted much attention in many fields even including agriculture and forestry. Alternate bearing of tree crops is a phenomenon in which a year of heavy yield is followed by a light yield. This phenomenon has been modelled using a tent map known as a resource budget model (RBM). We applied in-phase/ou...

Meeting future global staple crop demand requires continual productivity improvement. Many performance indicators have been proposed to track and measure the increase in productivity while minimizing environmental degradation. However, their use has lagged behind theory, and has not been uniform across crops in different geographies. The consequenc...

Fire and overgrazing reduce aboveground biomass, leading to land degradation and potential impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) dynamics. However, empirical data are lacking on how prescribed burning and livestock exclusion impact SOC in the long-term. Here we analyse the effects of 19 years of prescribed annual burning and...

Forests and woodlands remain under threat in tropical Africa due to excessive exploitation and inadequate management interventions, and the isolated success stories of tree retention and tree cover transition on African agricultural land are less well documented. In this study, we characterize the status of tree cover in a landscape that contains f...

Improving agricultural activity data is a cost-effective option for reducing the uncertainty of greenhouse gas inventories and monitoring mitigation actions, meeting multiple national data needs, and bolstering investments. It’s time to direct effort to this opportunity.

Climate change and variability are significant challenges for the environment and food security worldwide. Development strategies focusing simultaneously on adaptive farming, productivity, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-known as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) strategies-are key to responding to these challenges. For almost a decade, w...

Deforestation often is linked to the conversion of forests into agricultural land for the production of “boom crop” global commodities such as rubber, palm oil, and pulpwood. A key challenge is finding ways to reconcile agricultural and economic development with environmental protection and carbon sequestration. To address this challenge, the Unite...

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of several non-Annex I countries mention agroforestry but mostly without associated mitigation target. The absence of reliable data, including on existing agroforestry practices and their carbon storage, partially constrains the target setting. In this paper, we estimate the mitigation potential of agr...

There is an urgent need to develop resilient agroecosystems capable of helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change, particularly drought. In East Africa, diversification of maize-based cropping systems by intercropping with grain and tree legumes may foster productivity and resilience to adverse weather conditions. We tested whether intercr...

In Tanzania, fuelwood availability for cooking is an increasing challenge for rural households struggling to meet this need. Here, a possible pathway for smallholder farmers to reduce their dependency on off-farm fuelwood is evaluated. We compare the cooking performance of on-farm produced fuels, like wood from Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Kunth ex Wa...

Methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation in cattle are an important source of greenhouse gases, accounting for about 40% of all agricultural emissions. Diet quality plays a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of CH4 emissions. Specifically, the inclusion of feeds with high digestibility and nutritional value have been reported to...

Nine Latin American countries plan to use silvopastoral practices—incorporating trees into grazing lands—to mitigate climate change. However, the cumulative potential of scaling up silvopastoral systems at national levels is not well quantified. Here, we combined previously published tree cover data based on 250 m resolution MODIS satellite remote...

Understanding the determinants of improved agricultural technology adoption is an important component of increasing agricultural productivity and incomes of smallholders to reduce poverty and hunger, which are the top two Sustainable Development Goals. Among the actions needed to achieve this, particular attention is paid to the identification and...

This paper presents the results of a comparative assessment of Andhra Pradesh Community Natural Farming (APCNF) and conventional management systems across six cropping systems in Andhra Pradesh, India. The six crops investigated, i.e. paddy rice, groundnut, maize, chillies, cotton and Bengal gram, account for more than 80% of crop area in the state...

Agricultural development projects have a poor track record of success mainly due to risks and uncertainty involved in implementation. Cost-benefit analysis can help allocate resources more effectively, but scarcity of data and high uncertainty makes it difficult to use standard approaches. Bayesian Networks (BN) offer a suitable modelling technolog...

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is agriculture that increases productivity, improves resilience, and mitigates climate change. Smallholder adoption of farming technology is necessary to speed the transition to CSA. Here, we assessed the determinants of adoption of five technologies that can help achieve some of the CSA outcomes in smallholder farms...

The Rural Household Multiple Indicator Survey (RHoMIS) is a standardized farm household survey approach which collects information on 758 variables covering household demographics, farm area, crops grown and their production, livestock holdings and their production, agricultural product use and variables underlying standard socioeconomic and food s...

We test the hypothesis that agroforestry improves livelihoods and mitigates climate change in smallholder farming systems simultaneously. Data were collected using household surveys and standard biomass assessment approaches using locally relevant allometric equations. Summary statistics and regression analyses reveal linkages between on-farm carbo...

Climate-smart business models target multiple Sustainable Development Goals by fostering agricultural productivity, supporting farm and farmer livelihood resilience, and encouraging climate mitigation. While many business models (cl)aiming to create climate-smart value already exist both in agricultural development and business practice, little sch...

open source and available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880919301835

Our understanding of food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been hampered by limitations in the temporal and spatial representativeness of data. Food balance sheets provide scalable estimates of per capita food availability, but fail to represent food access, stability and their causal linkages. In contrast, rural household surveys represent...

However, the prevailing narrative suggests an endless search for inclusive business models that support a transition towards climate-smart agriculture (CSA). Our approach is a literature review of business models and CSA and qualitative fieldwork with four business models in Southern Africa to investigate the extent and way business models work to...

The livestock sector in the LAC region is facing different problems of: (i) low productivity (ii) soil erosion, and (iii) low profitability due to inadequate insertion to markets. To address these issues, improved pastures with environmental traits along with adequate management practices might be one of the most promising options of the livestock...

Soils account for >80% and 20% of the total agricultural N 2 O and CO 2 emissions respectively. Soil management activities that target improved soil health, such as enhancing earthworm activity, may also stimulate further emissions of CO 2 and N 2 O. One recommended strategy for mitigating these soil emissions is biochar amendment. However greater...

We test the hypothesis that agroforestry improves livelihoods and mitigates climate change in smallholder farming systems simultaneously. Data were collected using household surveys and standard biomass assessment approaches using locally relevant allometric equations. Summary statistics and regression analyses reveal linkages between on-farm carbo...

International discussions on climate change increasingly recognize the importance of agriculture in adaptation and mitigation efforts. This study estimates the mitigation potential of agricultural practices supported by IFAD’s current investments in order to provide guidance for the design of future investments. Using data from field studies in sci...

Human activities and their relation with land, through agriculture and forestry, are significantly impacting Earth system functioning. Specifically, agriculture has increasingly become a key sector for adaptation and mitigation initiatives that address climate change and help ensure food security for a growing global population. Climate change and...

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP21), a voluntary action plan, the '4 per 1000 Initiative: Soils for Food Security and Climate' was proposed under the Agenda for Action. The Initiative underlines the role of soil organic matter (SOM) in addressing the three-fold challenge of food and nutri...

While the commercialization and diversification of agricultural and livestock systems have been identified as key global strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation, less is known as to the large-scale gendered impacts that are implicated in these transformations among smallholder crop and livestock farmers. This study explores these ge...

Despite progress in fighting undernutrition, Africa has the highest rates of undernutrition globally, exacerbated by drought and conflict. Mobile phones are emerging as a tool for rapid, cost effective data collection at scale in Africa, as mobile phone subscriptions and phone ownership increase at the highest rates globally. To assess the feasibil...

Mixed effects model selection. (DOCX)

Mixed effects model results. Fixed effect results from best-fit models of nutrition indicators as a function of survey mode, round, and enumerator gender. (DOCX)

Frequency of food group reporting. Frequency of food group reporting via CATI and F2F in Baringo and Kitui Counties for MDD-W. (DOCX)

Correlations among MDD-W and demographic indicators. (DOCX)

Mixed effects model variance components. (DOCX)

Frequency of food group reporting. Frequency of food group reporting via CATI and F2F in Baringo and Kitui Counties for the MDD component of MAD. (DOCX)

Differences between responders and non-responders. Demographic, mobile access, and dietary adequacy differences between respondents who completed both rounds of the test-retest survey, and those who did not. (DOCX)

Survey success rates by mode and indicator. (DOCX)

Changes in nutrition indicators with round. Changes in nutrition indicators with round for participants who received F2F interviews in both rounds (T3). (DOCX)

Study site characteristics. (DOCX)

Correlations among MAD and demographic indicators. (DOCX)

A decline in pasture productivity is often associated with a reduction in vegetative cover. We hypothesize that nitrogen (N) in urine deposited by grazing cattle on degraded pastures, with low vegetative cover, is highly susceptible to losses. Here, we quantified the magnitude of urine-based nitrous oxide (N2O) lost from soil under paired degraded...

This paper offers an overview of how climate change is already affecting farmers across eastern and southern Africa, and how it will continue to affect them in the future. The rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability associated with climate change are undermining the livelihoods and food security of Africa’s farmers, most of whom work...

Over the last decade, international concerns about climate change have stimulated broad investment in the pursuit of agriculture that is more climate-smart. These concerns are particularly pressing in Africa, where most farmers remain severely impoverished and dependent on rain-fed production systems. This volume collates some of the latest researc...

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has three goals—productivity, resilience and mitigation. Rarely are these accounted for in CSA programming or the scientific evidence that supports it. Here, we evaluate the climate smartness of CSA-based agroforestry practices in Tabora and Dodoma, Tanzania using unpublished data from earlier studies. Firstly, a stu...

More than 500 million USD will soon be invested in climate-smart agriculture (CSA) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving smallholder farm management is the core of most of these programmes. However, there has been no comprehensive information available to evaluate how changing agricultural practices increases food production, improves resilie...

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This volume shares new data relating to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), with emphasis on experiences in Eastern and Southern Africa. The book is a collection of research by authors from over 30 institutions, spanning the public and private sectors, with specific knowledge on agricultural developm...

Household surveys are one of the most commonly used tools for generating insight into rural communities. Despite their prevalence, few studies comprehensively evaluate the quality of data derived from farm household surveys. We critically evaluated a series of standard reported values and indicators that are captured in multiple farm household surv...

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been engaged in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) since 2009 with major advancements in its readiness phase. In parallel, in November 2016, DRC was one of the eight pilot countries selected for mainstreaming of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This policy brief...

La République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) participe à la REDD+ (Réduction des Emissions dues à la Déforestation et à la Dégradation des forêts) depuis 2009 et a fait de belles avancées en matière de préparation à la REDD+. En parallèle, en novembre 2016, la RDC était l’un des huit pays pilotes sélectionnés pour l’intégration des Objectifs de Dévelo...

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been engaged in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) since 2009 with major advancements in its readiness phase. In November 2016, DRC was one of the eight pilot countries selected for mainstreaming of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This policy brief identifies po...

La République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) participe à la REDD+ (Réduction des Emissions dues à la Déforestation et à la Dégradation des forêts) depuis 2009 et a fait de belles avancées en matière de préparation à la REDD+. En novembre 2016, la RDC était l’un des huit pays pilotes sélectionnés pour l’intégration des Objectifs de Développement Durabl...

Sustainable intensification promotes environmentally sound and productive agriculture. However, use of sustainable intensification practices (SIPs) is low in many sub-Sharan African countries. This study examined the adoption of SIPs in Kenyan rural and peri-urban vegetable production to understand the scale of and underlying factors in the use of...

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is increasingly seen as a promising approach to feed the growing world population under climate change. The review explored how institutional perspectives are reflected in the CSA literature. In total, 137 publications were analyzed using institutional analysis framework, of which 55.5% make specific reference to ins...