Tobias Kuemmerle

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin | HU Berlin · Department of Geography

As land use intensifies globally, it increasingly exerts pressure on protected areas. Despite open, nonforested landscapes comprising up to 40% of protected areas globally, assessments have predominately focused on forests, overlooking the major pressures on rangelands from livestock overgrazing and land conversion. Across the southern Caucasus, a...

Aim People have strongly influenced the biosphere for millennia, but how their increasing activities have shaped wildlife distribution is incompletely understood. We examined how the distribution of European large (>8 kg), wild mammals has changed in association with changing anthropogenic pressures and climate change through the Holocene. Locatio...

Land‐use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss, affecting tropical forests and savannas at an unprecedented rate. To protect these ecosystems and their biodiversity, national conservation areas and international conservation funding have increased considerably in these regions. Understanding of how conservation funding allocation relates to...

Land use is both a major cause of the biodiversity crises and a potential solution to it. Decisions about land use are made in complex social–ecological systems, yet conservation research, policy, and practice often neglect the diverse and dynamic nature of land use. A deeper integration of land system science and conservation science provides majo...

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools for assessing suitable habitats across large areas and at fine spatial resolution. Yet, the usefulness of SDMs for mapping species' realised distributions is often limited since data biases or missing information on dispersal barriers or biotic interactions hinder them from accurately delin...

Aim The persistence of large carnivore populations depends on their survival outside protected areas, where they often impact local livelihoods through livestock depredation. Understanding the impacts of human behaviour on large carnivores in shared landscapes is thus important but is often overlooked in habitat assessments or conservation planning...

Land-use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called ‘frontiers’, defined here as places experiencing marked transformations owing to rapid resource exploitation. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these frontiers is crucial...

The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 aims to better protect natural ecosystems with high biodiversity and climate change mitigation potential. To achieve this goal, it is crucial to identify forests worth protecting, such as those characterized by long continuity and old age. Here, we propose a robust approach that combines historical maps from the mi...

Context Ecosystem services provided by mountain forests are critically linked to forest structure. Social-ecological disturbance regimes (i.e., the rate, frequency, and patch size distribution of disturbances driven by interacting natural and anthropogenic processes) and land use affect forest structure, but their specific impacts are not fully und...

Land use is a key driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and therefore also a major opportunity for its miti-gation. However, appropriately considering the diversity of land-use actors and activities in conservation assessments and planning is challenging. As a result, top-down conservation policy and planning are often criticized for a lack of...

Roads can have diverse impacts on wildlife species, and while some species may adapt effectively, others may not. Studying multiple species' responses to the same infrastructure in a given area can help understand this variation and reveal the effects of disturbance on the ecology of wildlife communities. This study investigates the behavioural res...

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools for assessing suitable habitat across large areas and at fine spatial resolution. Yet, the usefulness of SDMs for mapping species realized distributions is often limited, since data biases or missing information on dispersal barriers or biotic interactions hinder them from accurately delineating...

Freshwater megafauna, such as sturgeons, giant catfishes, river dolphins, hippopotami, crocodylians, large turtles, and giant salamanders, have experienced severe population declines and range contractions worldwide. Although there is an increasing number of studies investigating the causes of megafauna losses in fresh waters, little attention has...

Remote sensing data are important for assessing ecological change, but their value is often restricted by their limited temporal coverage. Major historical events that affected the environment, such as those associated with colonial history, World War II, or the Green Revolution are not captured by modern remote sensing. In the present article, we...

NOW PUBLISHED, PLEASE USE THIS VERSION: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240295 Land use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called frontiers, defined here as places experiencing marked transformations due...

International conservation funding to low-and middle-income countries has increased significantly in recent years. However, understanding of the underlying factors driving the geographic distribution of such funding remains limited. This study aimed to identify the relative importance of five factors (i.e., conservation targets, threat levels, cost...

Many grassland ecosystems and their associated biodiversity depend on the interactions between fire and land‐use, both of which are shaped by socioeconomic conditions. The Eurasian steppe biome, much of it situated in Kazakhstan, contains 10% of the world's remaining grasslands. The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991, widespread land abandonment...

Aim The non‐stationarity in habitat selection of expanding populations poses a significant challenge for spatial forecasting. Focusing on the grey wolf (Canis lupus) natural recolonization of Germany, we compared the performance of different distribution modelling approaches for predicting habitat suitability in unoccupied areas. Furthermore, we an...

Aim: The increasing availability of animal tracking datasets collected across many sites provides new opportunities to move beyond local assessments to enable detailed and consistent habitat mapping at biogeographical scales. However, integrating wildlife datasets across large areas and study sites is challenging, as species' varying responses to d...

Traffic mortality can pose a serious risk to endangered species that occur in small populations, aremobile and occupy fragmented habitats. This is the case for the European bison (Bison bonasus)yet, how traffic mortality affects this species is unknown. Here, we assessed patterns and trends ofEuropean bison mortality on roads and railways in Poland...

Monitoring is a prerequisite for evidence‐based wildlife management and conservation planning, yet conventional monitoring approaches are often ineffective for species occurring at low densities. However, some species such as large mammals are often observed by lay people and this information can be leveraged through citizen science monitoring sche...

Tropical and subtropical dry woodlands are rich in biodiversity and carbon. Yet, many of these woodlands are under high deforestation pressure and remain weakly protected. Here, we assessed how deforestation dynamics relate to areas of woodland protection and to conservation priorities across the world's tropical dry woodlands. Specifically, we cha...

Aim Land‐use change and overexploitation are major threats to biodiversity, and climate change will exert additional pressure in the 21st century. Although there are strong interactions between these threats, our understanding of the synergistic and compensatory effects on threatened species' range geography remains limited. Our aim was to disentan...

Monitoring is a prerequisite for evidence-based wildlife management, yet conventional monitoring approaches are often ineffective for species occurring at low densities. However, some species such as large mammals are often observed by lay people and this information can be leveraged through citizen science monitoring schemes. Assessing the quantit...

Tropical dry forests are widespread, harbour vast amounts of carbon and unique biodiversity, and underpin the livelihoods of millions. A variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect tropical dry forest canopy, yet our understanding of how these disturbances impact on forest structure and ecosystem functioning, and how forests develop af...

Following intense negotiation over several years, the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework — adopted in December 2022 — includes an ambitious target for area-based conservation as part of the global effort to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. Target 3 of the framework aims to increase the global cove...

Context Adjustments in habitat use by large carnivores can be a key factor facilitating their coexistence with people in shared landscapes. Landscape composition might be a key factor determining how large carnivores can adapt to occurring alongside humans, yet broad-scale analyses investigating adjustments of habitat use across large gradients of...

Agricultural intensification, an increase in per-area productivity, may spare forests otherwise lost to agricultural expansion. Yet which conditions enable such sparing or whether intensification amplifies deforestation through rebound effects remains hotly debated. Using a multilevel Bayesian regression framework, we analyse the effects of agricul...

Aim Several large‐mammal species in Europe have recovered and recolonized parts of their historical ranges. Knowing where suitable habitat exists, and thus where range expansions are possible, is important for proactively promoting coexistence between people and large mammals in shared landscapes. We aimed to assess the opportunities and limitation...

As ambitious new targets to increase area-based conservation are discussed, there is a growing concern that such an expansion might ignore or marginalize local people. How to set top-down priorities to implement new protected areas that reconcile local peoples' interaction with and dependence on biodiversity remains a challenge. The Gran Chaco, a g...

The global trade of agricultural commodities has profound social-ecological impacts, from potentially increasing food availability and agricultural efficiency, to displacing local communities, and to incentivizing environmental destruction. Supply chain stickiness, understood as the stability in trading relationships between supply chain actors, mo...

Habitat destruction and overexploitation are the main threats to biodiversity and where they co-occur, their combined impact is often larger than their individual one. Yet, detailed knowledge of the spatial footprints of these threats is lacking, including where they overlap and how they change over time. These knowledge gaps are real barriers for...

Aim Large carnivores are currently recolonizing parts of their historical ranges in Europe after centuries of persecution and habitat loss. Understanding the mechanisms driving these recolonizations is important for proactive conservation planning. Using the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) as examples, we explore wher...

Abstract Livestock husbandry exerts major pressures on wildlife across the world. Large carnivores are particularly at risk because they are often killed by pastoralists as a preventive or precautionary response to livestock depredation. Minimizing the overlap between pastures and carnivore habitat can thus be a conservation strategy, but it remain...

Pulsed resources have prominent effects on community and ecosystem dynamics; however, there is little research on how resource pulses affect human–wildlife interactions. Tree masting is a common type of pulsed resource that represents a crucial food for many species and has important bottom‐up effects in food webs. In anthropogenic landscapes, year...

Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the...

Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how agriculture expands into forests remains unclear, which is hampered by a lackof spatially and temporally detailed reconstruction of agricultural expansion. Her...

Wars are frequent and can affect land use substantially, but the effects of wars can vary greatly depending on their characteristics, such as intensity or duration. Furthermore, the spatial scale of the effects can differ. The effects of wars may be localized and thus close to conflict locations if direct mechanisms matter most (e.g., abandonment b...

The long-term survival of the Persian leopard Panthera pardus tulliana requires concerted regional conservation efforts. Understanding occurrence patterns and population trends of the leopard and its prey are key prerequisite for planning conservation interventions and ensuring their effectiveness. However, systematic monitoring for these purposes...

Persian leopards Panthera pardus tulliana, once widespread across Western and Central Asia, currently only occupy a fraction of their historical range. Identifying areas for restoring, connecting, and expanding extant populations is therefore important to safeguard this subspecies. Here, we used a large dataset of Persian leopard occurrences from 1...

Tropical dry woodlands are rapidly being lost to agricultural expansion, but how deforestation dynamics play out in these woodlands remains poorly understood. We have developed an approach to detect and map high-level patterns of deforestation frontiers, that is, the expansion of woodland loss across continents in unprecedented spatio-temporal deta...

Poaching is driving many species toward extinction, and as a result, lowering poaching pressure is a conservation priority. This requires understanding where poaching pressure is high and which factors determine these spatial patterns. However, the cryptic and illegal nature of poaching makes this difficult. Ranger patrol data, typically recorded i...

ContextBehavioral adjustments by large carnivores can be a key factor facilitating their coexistence with people in shared landscapes. Landscape composition might be a key factor determining how large carnivores can adapt to occurring alongside humans, yet broad-scale analyses investigating adjustments of habitat use across large gradients of human...

Large carnivores are making remarkable comebacks in Europe, but how this affects human-wildlife conflict remains unclear. Rebounding carnivore populations lead to increasing livestock depredation, which in turn leads to greater economic losses for farmers. However, returning carnivores could also influence the behavior of wild ungulates, which are...

International funding is increasingly important in supporting conservation in mega-biodiverse countries. However, it remains unclear which donors invest in which conservation objectives and where, making it difficult to identify gaps and key actors to influence. Here we identified 1947 foreign-aided conservation projects in South America's major de...

Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use...

Forest degradation in the tropics is a widespread, yet poorly understood phenomenon. This is particularly true for tropical and subtropical dry forests, where a variety of disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, affect forest canopies. Addressing forest degradation thus requires a spatially-explicit understanding of the causes of disturbances...

Hunting is a widespread but often overlooked land-use activity, providing major benefits to society. Hunting takes place in most landscapes, yet it remains unclear which types of landscapes foster or dampen hunting-related services, and how hunting relates to other land uses. A better understanding of these relationships is key for sustainable land...

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, gene...

Mountain ungulates around the world have been decimated to small, fragmented populations. Restoring these species often is limited by inadequate information on where suitable habitat is found, and which restoration measures would help to increase and link existing populations. We developed an approach to spatially target threat-specific restoration...

Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tr...

Tropical dry forests harbor major carbon stocks but are disappearing rapidly across the globe as agriculture expands into them. Unfortunately, carbon emissions from deforestation in dry forests remain poorly understood as high spatial-temporal and vertical heterogeneity complicate biomass mapping. Here, we use a novel Gradient Boosted Regression fr...

Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first...

Objectives We identified safe dispersal corridors and conflict-prone movement bottlenecks for Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) between protected areas in the Alborz Mountains, Iran, by mapping habitat, landscape permeability, and conflict risk. We then identified priority areas for conservation interventions according to the intensities...

Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how agriculture expands into forests remains unclear. Here, we developed and mapped a novel set of metrics that quantify agricultural frontier processes at unprece...

International funding is increasingly important in supporting conservation in mega-biodiverse countries. However, it remains unclear which donors invest in which conservation objectives and where, making it difficult to identify gaps and key actors to influence. Here we identified 1947 foreign-aided conservation projects in South America's major de...

Land-use frontiers, such as agriculture expanding into forests, remain a major driver of biodiversity loss, and often lead to conservation responses. To better understand the geographies of conservation, connecting conservation with tools used widely in Land System Science – particularly the frontier concept – allows assessing the patterns, actors,...