
Timur NarbaevKazakh-British Technical University | KBTU · Business School
Timur Narbaev
PhD, PMP, Aff.ASCE
About
66
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Introduction
Timur Narbaev, PhD, PMP, A.M.ASCE, is a Professor with Business School at Kazakh-British Technical University (Almaty, Kazakhstan). He teaches courses in the area of Project studies. His research interests are in Project management, Earned value management, Public-private partnerships, and Science policy. He was a finalist for the IPMA 2014 Young Researcher Award and a recipient of Thomson Reuters' Web of Science 2016 Science Leader Award.
Additional affiliations
June 2014 - April 2020
August 2013 - July 2016
January 2010 - March 2013
Publications
Publications (66)
Traditional Earned Value Management (EVM) index-based methods for Cost Estimate at Completion (CEAC) of an ongoing project have been known for their limitations inherent with both the assumption that past EVM data is the best available information and early-stage unreliability.
In an attempt to overcome such limitations, a new CEAC methodology is...
To improve the accuracy of early forecasting the final cost at completion of an ongoing construction project, a new regression-based nonlinear cost estimate at completion (CEAC) methodology is proposed that integrates a growth model with earned schedule (ES) concepts. The methodology provides CEAC computations for project early-stage and middle-sta...
Successful project management (PM) aims at achieving the triple-constraint (time, cost and quality), respecting the elasticity between the three main drivers. To facilitate this, PM activities are supported by project risk management (PRM) in foresight and earned value management (EVM) in hindsight. Both PRM and EVM, being industry standards, facil...
Project Financing (PF) is a promising mechanism to widely develop a variety of public infrastructure and service facilities by leveraging private funding of design, build, and operations. However, not all financially free-standing projects are suitable to be delivered under such forms of contract. The aim of this work is to help identify the main f...
Governments worldwide have implemented Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programs for developing public infrastructure easing fiscal pressure in the short term through leveraging capital investments from the private sector. Nevertheless, the length and complexity of these megaprojects jeopardize the long-term sustainability of this program due to ec...
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) infrastructure programs have featured as a recipe for the socio-economic development of developing countries. However, despite the overall trend to strengthen PPP programs in developing economies, national PPP programs are developed heterogeneously even among neighboring countries. To identify development patterns t...
Purpose-The world is reeling from the effects of climate change with increased extreme precipitation. Flooding is amongst the most recurring and devastating natural hazards, impacting human lives and causing severe economic damage. This paper aims to conduct a systematic review to critically analyse the most reported and emerging flood disaster res...
To meet the net zero 2050 target in construction, a net-zero carbon public procurement policy is needed. This paper adopts a systematic review approach to explore the drivers and barriers to adopting net-zero carbon procurement. The top three drivers include developing sustainable public procurement policies, increasing investment in low-carbon pro...
This study examines the factors influencing daily electricity use in UK homes during the electricity market crisis. Using data from smart meters and socio-technical sources, the research identifies key drivers of electricity consumption, such as household size, weather conditions, and appliance use. Results from a sample of British homes, analyzed...
This comprehensive literature review delves into the extensive body of research exploring the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in project management. Its primary objective is to amalgamate current knowledge while discerning prevalent trends, challenges, and advantages associated with incorporating AI into project management methodologies. The s...
The need for governments and stakeholders to find urgent solutions to address the destructive effects of disasters in urban areas have led to the call for cross-sector collaborations such as Public-Private Partnerships to assist with the development of urban community resilience in this modern era. This paper comprehensively reviews studies on the...
Digital transformation (DT) initiatives are vital for organisations to remain relevant and competitive amidst a complex and ever-evolving technological landscape. Selecting and evaluating suitable projects is critical for achieving strategic objectives while balancing necessity and feasibility. Despite the extensive literature on project portfolio...
Globally, Public-private partnerships (PPPs) become a widely adopted method for advancing large-scale infrastructure projects. However, the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with these projects represent a significant managerial challenge, particularly when confronted with unforeseen events such as those triggered by COVID-19. This paper...
From a managerial perspective, project success hinges on estimates at completion as they allow tailoring response actions to cost and schedule overruns. While the literature is moving towards sophisticated approaches, standard methodologies, such as Earned-Value Management (EVM) and Earned Schedule (ES), are barely implemented in certain contexts....
The holistic collaboration between the government and business through public-private partnerships (PPPs) is crucial in developing economies in transition. With the help of the PPP mechanism, emerging economies realize new and maintain existing social and economic infrastructure projects in education, energy, transportation, and healthcare. This le...
Strategic and operational project successes rely on optimal implementation, with time-to-execution being a key value driver and competitive advantage. Earned Value Management (EVM) is the most pervasive approach to scheduling and cost monitoring in large-scale projects. Earned Schedule (ES) is a derivation of EVM that specifically addresses schedul...
Project managers need reliable predictive analytics tools to make effective project intervention decisions throughout the project life cycle. This study uses Machine learning (ML) to enhance the reliability in project cost forecasting. A XGBoost forecasting model is developed and computational experiments are conducted using real data of 110 projec...
The Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology provides an index-based Estimate at Completion (EAC) formula to forecast the final cost of an ongoing project. However, neither the EVM methodology nor the literature in cost forecasting considers the occurrence of risks and how the cost contingency reserve (CC) is used to mitigate them. This study prop...
Due to its extensive use of natural resources and industrial activities, China, a rapidly developing country, has faced significant environmental challenges. The study investigates the collaboration of natural resources, pollution levels, and economic growth in China from 2005 to 2021. It offers fresh evidence on how collaboration affects these fac...
В данной работеисследуется восприятие рисков частными партнерами в проектах государственно-частного партнерства (ГЧП) в Казахстане. Был проведен анализ восприятия рисков частным партнером в проектах ГЧП в Казахстане. На основе обзора литературы был составленсписок из 39 рисков. В статье использовался эмпирический опрос по 5-балльной шкале Лайкерта,...
The research productivity of a country is positively associated with the development of its scientific capacity, which, in turn, contributes to the nation’s economic growth. In this paper, we explore the research productivity of Kazakhstan in economics and business disciplines and reveal its specific characteristics. Our methodology followed two st...
В данном исследовании проводится оценка развития научно-исследовательской деятельности в Казахстане. Был проанализирован уровень развития научного сектора в Казахстане с анализом статистических данных и результатами интервью экспертов. Был рассмотрен и определен уровень затрат на НИОКР по источникам финансирования, уровень инноваций в субъектах эко...
The growing literature in PPP has made the field multi-disciplinary, over-differentiated, and unconsolidated. Taking a meta-analysis lens, this study investigates an unexplored identity of the field. It consolidates 61 review articles in PPP, analyses them across numerous review categories, and provides implications and suggestions for future studi...
Figure 1 shows the distribution of the purposes of the review-type studies in the PPP field and their evolution over the analysed period.
Figure 2 presents the distribution of the methods employed by the review-type studies in PPP over 2001-2020
Figure 3 presents the 4 phases in the evolution of the review-type literature in PPP (2001-2020)
Using the methodology, the study investigates an unexplored identity of the field. It consolidates 61 review articles in PPP, analyses them across numerous review categories, and provides implications and suggestions for future studies. The methodology covers the review categories which are 1) the purpose of study, 2) methods used, 3) dataset detai...
To manage risks against unexpected cost overruns, project teams use Contingency Budget (CB). Its accurate estimation has been a subject of multiple studies proposing either deterministic or probabilistic models. In this study, we propose a deterministic Machine Learning-based approach to estimate CB. Based on the k-means clustering, our model integ...
Kazakhstan has implemented numerous policy reforms to improve its research environment since 1991, experiencing both positive changes and critical challenges. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive investigation of the country's research environment. Our materials include statistical data, science policy reports, bibliometric data from Scopus, a...
Risk management is one of the topical areas in construction project management research. However, no attempt has been made in the past decades to explore the emerging themes in this area. This paper reviews the research trends in risk management in construction. The bibliometric data of 1635 publications between 1979 and 2022 were extracted from Sc...
Risk management is one of the topical areas in construction research. However, no attempt has been made in the past decades to explore the emerging themes in this area. This paper reviews the research trends in risk management in construction. Bibliometric data of 1,635 publications between 1979 and 2022 were extracted from Scopus using a set of ke...
В статье рассмотрены аспекты социально-экономического развития государства, которые связаны с уровнем развития человеческого капитала, что является одним из основных источников обеспечения дальнейшего экономического роста. В Казахстане большое внимание уделяется развитию молодых кадров в научном секторе. В статье проведена оценка научно-исследовате...
The growing literature on game theory models in project management is reviewed in this paper. A systematic study that includes collecting materials, defining the structural dimensions and categories, presenting a descriptive analysis, and evaluating the results has been carried out. Application areas of game theory in project management were explor...
In project management it is critical to obtain accurate cost forecasts using effective methods. This study presents a Machine Learning model based on Long-Short Term Memory to forecast the project cost. The model uses the seven-dimensional feature vector, including schedule and cost performance factors and their moving averages as a predictor. Base...
The demand for retirement villages globally has been increasing due to the rapid growth in the aging population in recent years. To address the rising challenges in the retirement market, the public-private partnership (PPP) has become a feasible method to develop retirement villages. This paper aims to survey and examine the key success criteria f...
Игерілген құнды басқару (EVM) – жобалардың мерзімі мен құнының тиімділігін бағалау үшін
қолданылатын әдіс.
Бұл ғылыми жұмыс зерттелетін аумақта ғылыми-метриялық талдау жүргізу арқылы EVM
саласындағы академиялық білімнің ілгерілеуін зерттейді және осы бағыттағы ғылыми еңбектердің
ерекшеліктері мен трендтеріне шолу жасауды мақсат етеді. Зерттеу әдіст...
The growth of the Higher Education and Science (HES) sector is positively associated with
its research productivity and has a high potential in emerging countries. To explore such research productivity, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of the scientific literature from Kazakhstan. Our methods included descriptive analysis, network analysi...
Object: The current study offers a review of the scientometric literature from Kazakhstan.
Methods: Using two literature review approaches (content analysis and scientometric analysis), we conducted content, network, and density analysis. For the content analysis we read the full text of some influential papers in the field. For the network and den...
Part 5: Regular Session: Maintenance Improvement and Lifecycle Management
Project monitoring and control is one of the core processes of effective production planning and scheduling. As part of this process, earned value management (EVM) is used to measure and forecast the duration and cost of production projects and activities. Using the EVM-based earned schedule (ES) value, the schedule variance (SV(t)) metric is calcu...
Aims
This study illustrates the main factors that influence the cost overruns and schedule delays of tunnel construction megaprojects.
Objective
An empirical analysis was carried out based on a dataset collected from a number of recent tunnel megaprojects worldwide.
Methods
Analyses of variances and regression analyses were conducted to infer sta...
The table presents the results of a calculation of a rank score for two example journals: one that misses some metrics, Construction Management and Economics (i.e. no JIF, 5-JIF, NEF and AIS), and the other that has all of the 11 metric values, Public Management Review.
The research was published in Construction Management and Economics (Taylor & F...
This is a dataset that supports the findings of the study on the multi-disciplinary meta-review of the PPP literature. The research was published in Construction Management and Economics (Taylor & Francis).
The data that supports the findings of this study are openly available in Figshare at http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7750841
Public-private partnerships (PPP) research is very diverse. This field of research covers different topics across multiple disciplines and is disseminated in many journals. This has led to numerous review studies with a single discipline focus that apply mostly subjective or descriptive analyses. With the purpose of providing an integrated overview...
Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) research is very diverse. This field of research covers different topics across multiple disciplines and is disseminated in many journals. This has led to numerous review studies with a single discipline focus that apply mostly subjective or descriptive analyses. With the purpose of providing an integrated overview...
Considering the dearth of research on the impact of sustainability reporting practices on financial stability in the context of transition economies, this study aims to explore sustainability reporting practices of top oil and gas companies in Russia and investigate the effects of sustainability performance indicators on financial stability in the...
Estimating duration and cost at completion based on Earned Value Management (EVM) data and managing risk contingency accounts in ongoing projects are typically treated by both scholars and practitioners as separate processes of project monitoring. However, project risk is claimed to significantly impact on project schedule and cost performance. As...
Public Private Partnerships were established in Kazakhstan in the early 2000s to provide a means to attract finance to infrastructure projects and build management capacity. Legislation was introduced in 2005 and a major centre has been established to build the framework for the design of PPP projects, and their implementation and evaluation and to...
Forecasting the final cost based on Earned Value Management (EVM) data and managing cost contingency consumption in ongoing projects are typically considered by scholars and practitioners as two distinct duties of the project team. However, the managerial approach to cost contingency management may significantly impact on final cost performance. To...
This paper proposes a novel framework model that considers different behaviors of cost contingency (CC) consumption in forecasting risk adjusted final cost during the project execution. The model integrates the dynamics of how project managers can spend their contingencies into three S-shaped cost growth profiles to compute risk adjusted cost estim...
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the crucial influence of risks on the capital structure of build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects.
Design/methodology/approach: The equity portion of capital injected in a BOT investment is selected as the response variable and its relation with select identified risk factor...
Forecasting the final cost with Earned Value Management (EVM) and managing contingency budgets during the project execution have been traditionally considered as two separate streams of project management research. In an attempt to combine the two areas for the purpose of reflecting the risk impact on the cost forecast, this paper presents a cost e...
Статья посвящена оценке зрелости управления проектами в Казахстане. Автор приводит результаты опроса организаций в соответствии с моделью P3M3 и осуществляет эмпирический анализ зрелости управления проектами для выявления его текущего уровня. Указанная модель рассматривается как инструмент, необходимый организации для перехода к проектной форме упр...
Over the past 25 years Project Management (PM) has become a diverse field of research, whose agenda has substantially moved from a practitioner focus to an academic one. Given such an established background of the global PM research and knowledge, it is appealing to explore its current status and dynamics in emerging economies. This paper focuses o...
For more than sixty years organizations have been using methods and tools of Project Management (PM) which, in the past two decades, has become a diverse field of management application with its own knowledge domain. The success of such PM mapping into an organizational strategy and competency is measured by PM Maturity (PMM). The PMM models often...
Traditional Earned Value Management (EVM) index-based methods for Cost Estimate at Completion (CEAC) of an ongoing project have been known for their limitations inherent with both the assumption that past EVM data is the best available information and early-stage unreliability.
In an attempt to overcome such limitations, a new CEAC methodology is p...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the diffusion of earned value management (EVM) as a practicable methodology to monitor facility construction and renovation projects in the context of the European industry.
Design/methodology/approach
First, a review of the literature reveals how EVM evolved as a tool for facility construction...
The accuracy problem of a final cost forecasting is one of major issues in project monitoring. Selection of the most accurate and viable Estimate At Completion (EAC) method improves tracking the cost performance of
construction projects. Available EAC techniques have been largely applied in various industries and many methodological contributions h...
Accurate forecasting of a project's Cost Estimate at Completion (CEAC) based on current performance and progress is one the main issues in project monitoring and control. For decades, Earned Value Management (EVM) has been proved itself as a valuable tool to fulfill this task and cost estimates calculated by its Cost Performance Index (CPI) are wid...
Accurate forecasting of an ongoing project cost is a major issue in project monitoring. One of the challenges faced by project managers is selection of the most accurate cost Estimate at Completion (EAC) method to improve tracking their projects. To assist in the task, a review of previous research and applications is proposed with regard to both c...