Timothy Hatton

• PhD
• Professor at University of Essex

The 1965 Immigration Act represented a radical shift in U.S. policy, which has been credited with dramatically expanding the volume and changing the composition of immigration. Its passing has often been described as the result of political machinations negotiated within Congress without regard to public opinion. We show that congressional voting w...

About 55 million Europeans migrated to the New World between 1850 and 1914, landing in North and South America and in Australia. This movement, which marked a profound and permanent shift in global population and economic activity, is described in vivid detail by Timothy J. Hatton and Jeffrey G. Williamson, and the causes and effects relative to th...

I provide a new series of the average duration of emigrant voyages from Liverpool to New York from 1853 to 1913. Time on the crossing fell by 80 percent, from about 40 days to just eight, most of which occurred in the first 2 decades and was associated with the transition from sail to steam. The standard deviation of voyage durations also dramatica...

This paper explores the changing trend of adult height in China for cohorts born in 1950–90. We use information on household structure and local economic conditions during the individual’s childhood to explain the trend. We find that during the 40-year period, the growth rate of adult height increased, with the most substantial increase occurring i...

We estimate the correlates of death and injury in action during the First World War for a sample of 2,400 non-officer British servicemen who were born in the 1890s. Among these 13.1 percent were killed in action and another 23.5 percent were wounded. Not surprisingly we find that the probability of death or wounding increases with time in the army...

A minority of applicants for asylum in Europe gain some form of recognition as refugees, and this has been a controversial issue. From the early 2000s, the EU introduced a series of directives to prevent a race to the bottom in asylum policies and to harmonise policy between destination countries, but the results have not been fully assessed. In th...

We study the effect of the spread of democracy on population health in 15 European countries since the middle of the 19th century, and more specifically the average height of adult males by five‐year birth cohort, and we estimate the effect of transitions to democracy using within‐country variation. We find that the advent of democracy increased av...

This paper revisits the determinants of emigration from the United Kingdom to the United States, Canada and Australia/New Zealand from 1870 to 1913. In the absence of restrictive immigration policies, the flow of emigration to these destinations responded to economic shocks and trends. Emigrants to Australia and New Zealand were more skilled on ave...

Studies of public opinion on immigration have focused on the responses to survey questions about whether the individual would prefer more or less immigration (preference) but not on his or her assessment of its importance as a policy issue (salience). Analysis of data from the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer indicates that preference and s...

The European migration crisis of 2015–2016 and the migrants from Central America gathering on the US border since 2017 have created headlines and presented challenges for Western governments. In this paper, I examine the trends in, and determinants of, the number of asylum seekers applying for refugee status in the developed world. This must be und...

In nineteenth century Britain atmospheric pollution from coal-fired industrialization was on the order of 50 times higher than today. We examine the effects of these emissions on child development by analysing the heights on enlistment during WWI of men born in England and Wales in the 1890s. We find a strong negative relationship between adult hei...

We analyse the heights of children aged 2 to 12 in the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) focusing on the effect of the number of children in the family. Previous studies of the trade-off between the quantity of children and some measure of their quality have been much concerned with the endogeneity of fertility choices. Here we use the IFLS for...

The recent asylum crisis has highlighted the inadequacies of European asylum policies. The existing asylum system, which encourages migrants to make hazardous maritime or overland crossings to gain access to an uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status, is inefficient, poorly targeted and lacks public support. In the long run it should be repl...

Atmospheric pollution was an important side effect of coal-fired industrialisation in the nineteenth century. In Britain emissions of black smoke were on the order of fifty times as high as they were a century later. In this paper we examine the effects of these emissions on child development by analysing the heights on enlistment during the First...

This paper examines historical evidence for a quality–quantity trade-off between sibship size and height as an indicator of health. The existing literature has focused more on education than on health and it has produced mixed results. Historical evidence is limited by the lack of household-level data with which to link an individual’s height with...

Refugees and asylum seekers are only a small proportion of the 60 million forcibly displaced persons. But those seeking asylum in the developed world have received much of the attention as western governments have struggled to develop a policy response. An analysis of asylum applications by origin and destination indicates that these flows are larg...

It is widely believed that the recent recession has soured public attitudes towards immigration. But most existing studies are cross-sectional and can shed little light on the economy-wide forces that shift public opinion on immigration. In this paper I use the six rounds of the European Social Survey (2002-2012) to test the effects of macro-level...

This article examines the health and height of men born in England and Wales in the 1890s who enlisted in the army at the time of the First World War, using a sample of recruits from the army service records. These are linked to their childhood circumstances as observed in the 1901 census. Econometric results indicate that height on enlistment was...

This chapter provides an overview of trends and developments in international migration since the Industrial Revolution. We focus principally on long-distance migration to rich destination countries, the settler economies in the nineteenth century and later the OECD. The chapter describes the structure, direction, and determinants of migration flow...

This article provides an outline of historical research on emigration from Europe to the New World in the century from 1850. It focuses first on the determinants of the volume and composition of emigration. Second, it examines the assimilation of immigrants and their integration in host country labor markets. The third topic is the rise of restrict...

Policy toward asylum-seekers has been controversial. Since the late 1990s, the EU has been developing a Common European Asylum System, but without clearly identifying the basis for cooperation. Providing a safe haven for refugees can be seen as a public good and this provides the rationale for policy coordination between governments. But where the...

The United States Immigration Act of 1965 was followed by a steep upward trend in total immigration, and by a dramatic shift in the source-country composition away from Europe and towards Asia and Latin America. In this paper I ask if and how the 1965 Act generated these unanticipated consequences. The result was partly because of the pre-existing...

Introduction This chapter focuses on four key aspects of the development of the Australian labour market since Federation. First are the patterns in the total labour supply as influenced by population increase, participation, hours of work and trends in labour-force composition. Second is the growth in workforce skills, as represented by the changi...

This paper provides a view of progress over the last quarter century in the economics of international migration. I focus on two long established topics and two that have surged in the last decade. Interest in immigrant and assimilation and in the labour market effects of immigration has been kept going by methodological debates and by the diffusio...

A country's most important asset is its people. This paper outlines the development of Britain's human resources since the middle of the 19th century. It focuses on four key elements. The first is the demographic transition - the processes through which birth rates and death rates fell, leading to a slowdown in population growth. The second is the...

We examine the labour market experience of the UK and the US in the recessions of the early 1920s and the early 1930s and the subsequent recoveries. These were deep recessions, comparable to that of 2008-9, but the recoveries were very different. In the UK the recovery of the 1920s was incomplete but that of the 1930s was rather less protracted tha...

Over the last 15 years, the locus of policymaking towards asylum seekers and refugees has shifted away from national governments and towards the European Union (EU) as the Common European Asylum Policy has developed. Most of the focus has been on the harmonization of policies relating to border control, the processing of asylum claims, and receptio...

This paper provides an overview of asylum migration from poor strife-prone countries to the OECD since the 1950s. I examine the political and economic factors in source countries that generate refugees and asylum seekers. Particular attention is given to the rising trend of asylum applications up to the 1990s, and the policy backlash that followed....

The first half of the twentieth century saw rapid improvements in the health and height of British children. Average height and health can be related to infant mortality through a positive selection effect and a negative scarring effect. Examining town-level panel data on the heights of school children, no evidence is found for the selection effect...

Increases in human stature are seen as a key indicator of improvement in the average health of populations. The literature associates stature with a variety of socioeconomic variables, and much of the focus is on the nineteenth century and on the last 50 years. In this paper I present and analyse a new dataset for the average height of adult male c...

We develop a two equation model of wage setting and unemployment, which we estimate on annual time series for Australia since Federation. Our model links the real wage level to productivity and to a set of wage pressure variables, while the unemployment rate is linked to the gap between the real wage and productivity and to demand side variables. W...

Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 197...

This paper presents 5-yearly data on the height of young adult men in 15 Western European countries for birth cohorts from the middle of the 19th to the end of the 20th century. The results indicate that from the 1870s to the 1970s average height increased by around 11 cm, or more than 1cm per decade. The main finding is that for the northern and m...

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality-quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number...

We examine the labour-market experience of the UK and the US in the recessions of the early 1920s and the early 1930s and the subsequent recoveries. These were deep recessions, comparable to that of 2008–9, but the recoveries were very different. In the UK the recovery of the 1920s was incomplete, but that of the 1930s was rather less protracted th...

This is a survey of some of the key studies in the literature on international migration in history that may be described as cliometric. This literature uses the concepts and approaches of applied economics to investigate a range of historical issues and there are strong parallels with the questions that have been addressed in the literature on con...

The first half of the twentieth century saw rapid improvements in the health and height of British children. Average height and health can be related to infant mortality through a positive selection effect and a negative scarring effect. Examining town-level panel data on the heights of school children I find no evidence for the selection effect bu...

This article examines the effects of socio-economic conditions on the standardized heights and body mass index (BMI) of children in Interwar Britain, using the Boyd Orr cohort, a survey of predominantly poor families taken in 1937--9. We examine the trade-off between child quality (in the form of health outcomes) and the number of children in the f...

International migration in the last half century is often characterised as following an inexorable upward trend that can only be stemmed by tougher immigration policies in the rich OECD. This view fails to pay sufficient attention to the supply-side forces that drive emigration from poor to rich countries. European mass migrations before 1914 sugge...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 fi...

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with a rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now reversed. This article examines what happened and why. It surveys the trends in asylum seeking and the literature that this has generated. It provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the prese...

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with a rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now reversed. This article examines what happened and why. It surveys the trends in asylum seeking and the literature that this has generated. It provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the prese...

We study the extent of overcrowding amongst British urban working families in the early 1900s and find major regional differences. In particular, a much greater proportion of households in urban Scotland were overcrowded than in the rest of Britain and Ireland. We investigate the causes of this spatial distribution of overcrowding and find that pri...

Trade Boards were first established in 1909 principally to protect workers in the sweated trades’but were vastly extended under new criteria in 1918. Although the interwar Trade Boards set wage minima which were‘tough’by modern standards there has been little analysis of their effects on employment. But in one sector, agriculture, there is clear ev...

This paper asks whether history can inform modern debate about immigration’s impact on high wage economies. It examines the relationship between migration’s labor market impact and capital flows before 1914, the first global era. It then assesses the effects of immigration on wages and employment with and without international capital mobility toda...

We examine fluctuations in the predicted educational attainment of newly arrived legal U.S. immigrants between 1972 and 1999 by combining data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service with the Current Population Survey. A mid-1980s decline gave way to a noticeable improvement in the skill base of the immigrant population between 1987 an...

It is well established that international trade has played a key role in determining the character and development of the British economy. In the half century before 1914 this factor is often given special emphasis and Britain is frequently described as an "export economy'. It is sometimes argued that the growth of industrial production depended un...

The outbreak of rural unionism in the early 1870s and its subsequent collapse is a well-known milestone in labour history. It was one of the earliest attempts to raise wages among unskilled labourers through unionism. There has been much conjecture but little systematic analysis of its effect on rural wages. Using two different approaches we provid...

We study the importance of childhood socioeconomic conditions in predicting differences in life expectancy using data from a large sample of children collected in 16 locations in England and Scotland in 1937-39, who have been traced through official death records up to 2005. We estimate a number of duration of life models that control for unobserve...

This paper investigates the effect of productivity growth on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) over the long run, using historically consistent time series for the UK from 1871 to 1999. A two-equation model of unemployment and wage-setting that incorporates productivity effects is estimated over the whole period, allowing...

Essays by internationally prominent economists examine long run cross-country economic trends from the perspective of New Comparative Economic History, an approach pioneered by Harvard economist Jeffrey G. Williamson. The innovative approach to economic history known as the New Comparative Economic History represents a distinct change in the way th...

There is a large econometric literature that examines the economic assimilation of immigrants in the United States and elsewhere. On the whole immigrants are seen as atomistic individuals assimilating in a largely anonymous labour market, a view that runs counter to the spirit of the equally large literature on ethnic groups. Here we argue that imm...

In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain variations in immigration to the United States by source country since the early 1970s. The explanatory variables include ratios to the United States of source country income and education as well as relative inequality. In addition, we incorporate the stock of previous immigrants and a varie...

The international movement of labour remains much more restricted than movement of goods or capital, and the worldwide economic gains to liberalizing migration are large. This paper asks whether those gains could be realized through better international cooperation on migration along the lines of the WTO for trade. Although public opinion is margin...

This paper asks whether history can shed light on the modern debate about immigration's labour market impact in high wage economies. It examines the relationship between migration and capital flows in the age of mass migration before 1914, the so-called first global century. It then assesses the effects of immigration on wages and employment with a...

Can history shed light on the modern debate about immigration%u2019s labor market impact in high wage economies? This paper examines the relationship between migration and capital flows in the age of mass migration before 1914, the so-called first global century. It then assesses the effects of immigration on wages and employment with and without i...

Today's labor-scarce economies have open trade and closed immigration policies, while a century ago they had just the opposite, open immigration and closed trade policies. Why the inverse policy correlation, and why has it persisted for almost two centuries? This paper seeks answers to this dual policy paradox by exploring the fundamentals which ha...

In this paper, Frank Barry provides an interesting perspective on models that are used to study international migration, an analysis that is motivated by the migration experience of Ireland in the century and a half since the famine. There are essentially three themes in the paper: an interpretation of migration and labour markets in Ireland, a cri...

Most studies that look across local labour markets have found the effects of immigration to be benign. One possibility is that immigrants to a specific area simply push non-immigrants onwards elsewhere, thereby diffusing the labour market effects. Examining net internal migration between 11 regions of Britain over two decades, we find consistently...

Policy towards asylum seekers has been a controversial topic for more than a decade. Rising numbers of asylum applications have been met with ever-tougher policies to deter them. Following a period of policy harmonisation, the EU has reached a crucial stage in the development of a new Common European Asylum System. This paper seeks to shed light on...

Australia’s policies towards asylum seekers hit the headlines when it refused to admit those aboard the Tampa in September 2001. This tough stance and the raft of legislation that followed became known as Australia’s ‘Pacific Solution’. It was clearly intended to deter those who might otherwise arrive by sea or by air to claim asylum in Australia....

Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This Paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which i...

During the golden age of the 1950s and 1960s unemployment in Britain averaged 2 per cent. This was far lower than ever before or since and a number of hypotheses have been put forward to account for this unique period in labour market history. But there has been little attempt to isolate precisely how the determinants of wage setting and unemployme...

No abstract available.

World mass migration began in the early nineteenth century, when advances in transportation technology and industrial revolutions at home enabled increasing numbers of people to set off for other parts of the globe in search of a better life. Two centuries later, there is no distant African, Asian, or Latin American village that is not within reach...

n 26 August 2001 a Norwegian freighter, the MV Tampa, rescued 433 asylum seekers from their vessel the KM Palapa 1 that was in distress in the stretch of ocean between Christmas Island and the coast of Indonesia. At the insistence of the rescued passengers, the captain of the Tampa asked the Australian government for permission to land them on Chri...

Stories about foreign migrants — legal, illegal and asylum seekers — appear almost daily in the news. Governments in Europe, North America and Australia note these events with alarm and grapple with policy reforms aimed at selecting certain migrants and keeping out others. Economists appear to be well armed to advise the debate since they are respo...

Why do emigration rates vary across Latin America? Since more than three-quarters of Latin America’s emigrants go to the United States, the paper estimates a model of emigration to the United States to isolate the fundamentals driving Latin American emigration. The model is estimated separately for all sending countries and for Latin America, askin...

Most labor scarce overseas countries moved decisively to restrict their immigration during the first third of the 20th century. This autarchic retreat from unrestricted and even publiclysubsidized immigration in the first global century before World War I to the quotas and bans introduced afterwards was the result of a combination of factors: publi...