Tim Vlandas

• PhD in Political Economy
• Professor (Associate) at University of Oxford

What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates across countries? In contrast to most literature, which emphasises the role of ideas and institutions, this paper focuses on electoral politics and argues that ageing leads to lower inflation rates. Countries with a larger share of elderly exhibit lower inflation because older people are...

There is a long-standing debate in academic and policymaking circles about the normative merits and economic effects of a universal basic income (UBI). However, existing literature does not sufficiently address the question of which factors are associated with individual support for a UBI. While a large literature in political economy has focused o...

What is the association between partisanship and individual views as well as behaviours towards the Covid-19 pandemic? This research note explores how and why there might be differences between distinct voter groups. It addresses this question empirically using two datasets collected before and during pandemic: a daily survey covering nearly 100,00...

This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far right preferences using the 'unexpected event during survey' research design. This strategy allows us to match individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents' party preferences...

Employment relations scholars argue that industrial relations institutions reduce low pay among the workforce, while the insider-outsider literature claims that unions contribute to increase the low-pay risk among non-union members. This article tests these expectations by distinguishing, respectively, between the individual effect of being a union...

This article contributes to debates about the importance of class in far-right voting behavior by focusing on intergenerational class mobility. Using data from the European Social Survey (ESS), we employ Diagonal Reference Models (DRMs) to examine whether and how actual downward class mobility is linked to far-right party voting. First, drawing on...

Do conflicts abroad affect trust at home? While we know that conflicts impact trust in warring countries, we lack evidence on whether people in neighbouring, but non-involved, countries are also affected. We address this question in the case of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which represented a large shock to the security and econom...

What explains changes in the economic structures, institutions and policies of Advanced Capitalist Democracies (ACDs)? In this article, we suggest that the various answers to this question in the field of Comparative Political Economy (CPE) are essentially linked to two main approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of electorates and poli...

Can foreign conflicts affect attitudes in nonbelligerent countries? A large literature studies the effects of conflicts and wars on countries that are directly involved, without considering the potential consequences for other nonbelligerent countries that might nevertheless be threatened. To address this question, we examine how the Russian invasi...

Wars increase the importance of government functions, yet they also constrain their ability to fulfill these functions. In particular, wars hinder economic activity, thereby limiting governments’ capacity to raise the revenues required to maintain stability and meet the heightened needs of citizens. Effective governance is therefore severely underm...

The chapter is structured as follows. Section 22.1 provides a brief overview of UBI as a policy proposal, examines its origins, and sets out the cornerstones of its recent political developments. In section 22.2, we then discuss the much debated relationship between a UBI and various labour market issues, while also examining UBI’s potential conseq...

One in five people in the EU and nearly one in ten in the world are now aged 65 and over. This demographic transformation is one of the great successes of the twentieth century and has profoundly altered the composition of electorates in many democracies. This article explores whether and how this population ageing reshapes the relationship between...

What is the association between partisanship, individual views and behaviours towards the pandemic? This research note explores this question empirically using two datasets collected before and during the Covid‐19 pandemic: a daily survey covering nearly 100,000 individuals and county level mobility matched to UK 2019 general election results. At t...

The effectiveness of containment measures has been shown to depend on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there has been growing discontent with social distancing rules during national lockdowns across several countries, particularly among certain demographic and socio-economi...

This article examines the association between partisanship and vaccination in the UK. The lower vaccination rates among Republicans in the US have been linked to ideology and President Trump's anti-vaccination rhetoric. By contrast, both ruling and opposition parties in the UK promoted the national vaccination program. Using two datasets at constit...

Democracies have experienced profound population ageing in the last decades. Yet we still know little about the political consequences of ageing for economic performance. This article develops a novel theoretical framework linking ageing to lower economic growth through two mechanisms: first, grey power pushes elected governments to expand consumpt...

How do welfare state policies affect the political support for environmental action of economically vulnerable social groups? Two competing hypotheses can be delineated. On the one hand, a synergy logic would imply that welfare state generosity is associated with higher support for environmental action among economically vulnerable groups due to th...

This report examines the electoral success of right-wing populist parties (RWPPs) in 17 European countries and makes recommendations for how progressives should respond. Specifically, we study the three Ps: People: Why do individual people vote for RWPPs? Policy: What is the role of policy? Parties: What makes certain RWPPs more successful than oth...

After decades of debates on the economic and philosophical merits and shortcomings of a universal basic income (UBI), more recent literature has started to investigate the politics of a UBI. While several studies shed new light on the individual characteristics associated with higher or lower support for a UBI, we still do not know what features of...

This report examines the electoral success of right-wing populist parties (RWPPs) in 17 European countries and makes recommendations for how progressives should respond. Specifically, we study the three Ps: People: Why do individual people vote for RWPPs? Policy: What is the role of policy? Parties: What makes certain RWPPs more successful than oth...

Political economy debates have focused on the internationalisation of private capital, but foreign states increasingly enter domestic markets as financial investors. How do policy makers in recipient countries react? Do they treat purchases as a threat and impose restrictions or see them as beneficial and welcome them? What are the wider implicatio...

This chapter sets out the analytical framework of ‘internationalized statism’ developed and applied in the book. Although the West is said to be living in an age of internationalized ‘economic (neo-)liberalism’, where capital flows have been liberalized, a ‘new statist’ literature argues that the role of the state has not declined as it adapts and...

Although also labelled a ‘liberal’ market economy, the UK has strongly pursued internationalized statism in stark contrast to the US. It has followed a ‘Wimbledon’ strategy of seeking to attract Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) from all over the world even if they take large stakes in prominent British firms. Both formal and informal instruments have...

Comparison of the four countries shows that internationalized statism has developed in the UK, France, and Germany in ways that appear surprising given both popular and academic writings, although there are important cross-national differences in its forms. The US has seen the lowest level of internationalized statism, whereas the UK has pursued ex...

This chapter discusses the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as an example of the wider phenomenon of overseas state investment. It sets out the striking expansion in the number and financial size of SWFs, most of which are located in the Middle East and Asia, and then summarizes the lively debates about whether SWF investments are a threat to...

France has a popular and academic reputation as a state-influenced economy that is suspicious of foreign private investors, especially in strategic sectors and ‘national firms’. Yet this chapter shows that it has followed a strategy of directed internationalized statism, focused on attracting selected Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) to specific ‘nati...

Germany has been seen as relatively closed to overseas equity purchases because of its corporate governance system based on insiders. Yet, after an initial period of debate, it has followed policies of directed internationalized statism towards Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). A powerful coalition of the federal finance and economics ministries, toge...

This chapter examines debates about openness towards Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) investments in the United States. Although the US is often seen as economically liberal and open, there has been powerful political pressure to restrict overseas investment. Congress has sought increased restrictions on grounds of national security. In contrast, tradit...

This introductory chapter offers an overview of the book. It identifies the growing size and importance of overseas state investors and how they challenge current political economy analyses of the state. The phenomenon is well illustrated by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs): state-owned investment bodies, often from Asia and the Middle East, that have...

An emerging literature documents the presence of large partisan differences in the views and behaviours of different voters towards the Covid-19 pandemic. How does this affect vaccination rates? We address this question in the case of England using a cross-sectional regression analysis of constituency level vaccination data in October 2021 matched...

What is relationship between partisanship and views and behaviours towards Covid-19? This article tackles this research question using nearly 100,000 survey responses to a new and highly granular daily survey as well as google mobility matched to UK general election data. Our results suggest that partisanship is correlated with the views and behavi...

The effectiveness of containment measures depends on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there is growing discontent with social distancing rules in many countries, which is expected to intensify further during summer. Using a highly granular dataset on compliance of over 105,...

The effectiveness of containment measures depends on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there is growing discontent with social distancing rules in many countries, which is expected to intensify further during summer. Using a highly granular dataset on compliance of over 105,...

Do terrorist attacks increase support for the far right? While the 'issue ownership' approach suggests that far right parties can mobilise the xenophobic attitudes which terrorist attacks trigger, by contrast the 'rally round the flag' perspective suggests that voters are likely to shun the far right, preferring centre right mainstream parties inst...

Population ageing, and the decline in the working-age population, represents a profound and global demographic shift. What political consequences do ageing populations have for the economies of advanced democracies? Research in this area typically focuses on a few mechanisms and is therefore - by design - unable to assess the overall strength of th...

What is the effect of pandemics on partisan perceptions of government competence? Taking the case of Covid-19 in the UK, we explore how voters' assessments of the government's handling of the economy and health were affected by four events: the first UK Covid-19 death; the national lockdown; Boris Johnson's hospitalisation; and Cummings' scandal. U...

What is the relationship between electoral and economic performance? Previous literature posits that poor economic performance hurts the incumbent at the ballot box because overall economic performance serves as a competence signal, which voters can readily access at low costs. Building on an emerging economic voting literature exploring heterogene...

This article examines the interplay between social risks, welfare state policies and far right voting. Distinguishing between compensatory and protective policies and using data from seven waves of the European Social Survey (ESS) and social policy datasets, the article tests a range of hypotheses about the extent to which welfare state policies mo...

Why have labour market reforms varied so much across European countries in the 30 years preceding the economic crisis? We argue that the degree of liberalization over time in each country depends on the interaction between governments' partisan leaning, the strength of trade unions and the economic problem‐load pushing governments to adopt distinct...

Few studies analyse individual support for Universal Basic Income (UBI). This article theorises and explores empirically the relationship between different strands of left ideology and support for UBI across European countries. We delineate three types of concerns about capitalism: ‘Labourist Left’ worry about exploitation; ‘Libertarian Left’ about...

Why have labour market reforms varied so much across European countries in the 30 years preceding the economic crisis? We argue that the degree of liberalization over time in each country depends on the interaction between governments’ partisan leaning, the strength of trade unions and the economic problem-load pushing governments to adopt distinct...

Why have labour market reforms varied so much across European countries in the 30 years preceding the economic crisis? We argue that the degree of liberalization over time in each country depends on the interaction between governments’ partisan leaning, the strength of trade unions and the economic problem-load pushing governments to adopt distinct...

This article focuses on the prevalence of anti-immigration attitudes among the far-right electorate. Drawing on the distinction between the predictive power of immigration concerns, and the question of how widespread these concerns are among the far-right voter pool, we proceed in two steps. First, we assess the extent to which anti-immigration att...

This article contests the view that the strong positive correlation between anti-immigration attitudes and far right party success constitutes evidence in support of the cultural grievance thesis and against the economic grievance thesis. We argue that far right party success depends on the ability to mobilise a coalition of interests between their...

In the context of COVID-19, numerous organisations have produced policy trackers and datasets to allow policy-makers and researchers to follow and evaluate policy changes across the world. To address information overload, this project has created a Supertracker that gives immediate access to existing policy trackers, novel datasets and surveys. The...

This article explores empirically how different types of labor market inequality affect policy preferences in post-industrial societies. I argue that the two main conceptualizations of labor market vulnerability identified in the insider–outsider literature are complementary: labor market risks are shaped by both labor market status—whether an indi...

This article analyses individual level support for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG) using the European Social Survey. At the country level, support is highest in South and Central Eastern Europe, but variation does not otherwise seem to follow established differences between varieties of capitalisms or welfare state regimes. At the individual level,...

This article contests the view that the ‘new nationalism’ is a linear, i.e. constantly and consistently increasing over time, novel and uniform phenomenon best understood as a cultural backlash. It argues that while the rhetoric of these parties is indeed centred on nationalism, the drivers of support are neither new nor necessarily nationalism – r...

This article explores empirically how different types of labour market inequality affect policy preferences in post-industrial societies. I argue that the two main conceptualisations of labour market vulnerability identified in the insider-outsider literature are complementary: Labour market risks are shaped by both labour market status-whether an...

What explains cross-national variation in wage inequality? Research in comparative political economy stresses the importance of the welfare state and wage coordination in reducing not only disposable income inequality but also gross earnings inequality. However, the cross-national variation in gross earnings inequality between median- and low-incom...

What is the impact of unemployment on far-right party support? This article develops a framework that links unemployment to far-right party support, while taking into account both the heterogeneity of the workforce and the role of labour market policies. More specifically we focus on unemployment as a driver of economic insecurity and examine its e...

This chapter focuses on the political economy of the Brexit vote. It contributes to the debate on British Euroscepticism by examining the impact of economic insecurity. More specifically we explore the determinants of individual support for Brexit by focusing on several factors relating to economic insecurity that have all received significant atte...

There is a large literature arguing that countries with high employment protection legislation (EPL) have worse labour market performance. Yet, the overall impact of the crisis on France’s labour market was comparatively limited. To solve this puzzle, this paper makes four points. First, it shows that France’s labour market problems have not histor...

The strong debates in the varieties of capitalism literature as to whether financial liberalisation and internationalisation undermine ‘insider’ corporate governance systems based on patient capital in coordinated and state-led market economies have focused on ‘impatient’ overseas private capital. However, cross-border state investment has also gro...

The far right is on the rise in many western and eastern European countries. The 2008 Eurozone crisis is an obvious source of blame for this phenomenon; indeed, a large body of literature suggests that economic malaise prompts support for far right parties. This conventional wisdom, however, is not consistent with cross-national patterns of unemplo...

Why do different countries exhibit different inflation rates? Most political economy accounts emphasise the role of ideas and institutions: as economic research shows that low inflation is achievable at no economic cost, governments delegate monetary policy to independent central banks. Countries with independent central banks and unions that antic...

What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates in developed countries? Previous literature has emphasised the role of ideas and institutions, and to a lesser extent interest groups, while leaving the role of electoral politics comparatively unexplored. This paper seeks to redress this neglect by focusing on one case where electoral p...

Does the economy affect patterns of far-right party support across countries? This article reconceptualizes micro-level analyses that focus on the effect of unemployment through a framework of costs, risks and the mediating role of labour market institutions. It then derives several hypotheses and tests them on the results of the previous three EP...

What is the impact of the economy on cross national variation in far right-wing party support? This paper tests several hypotheses from existing literature on the results of the last three EP elections in all EU member states. We conceptualise the economy affects support because unemployment heightens the risks and costs that the population faces,...

This article investigates the determinants of union inclusiveness towards agency workers in Western Europe, using an index which combines unionization rates with dimensions of collective agreements covering agency workers. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, we identify two combinations of conditions leading to inclusiveness: the ‘Nor...

While the 2014 European Parliament elections were marked by the rise of parties on the far right-wing, the different patterns of support that we observe across Europe and across time are not directly related to the economic crisis. Indeed, economic hardship seems neither sufficient nor necessary for the rise of such parties to occur. Using the cros...

European labour markets are increasingly divided between insiders in full-time permanent employment and outsiders in precarious work or unemployment. Using quantitative as well as qualitative methods, this thesis investigates the determinants and consequences of labour market policies that target these outsiders in three separate papers. The first...

Temporary work has expanded in the last three decades with adverse implications for inequalities. Because temporary workers are a constituency that is unlikely to impose political costs, governments often choose to reduce temporary work regulations. While most European countries have indeed implemented such reforms, France went in the opposite dire...

In-work benefits have been introduced in a number of Bismarckian welfare regimes in a context of austerity despite being targeted at politically weak constituents and representing a deviation from prevailing welfare institutions. This article addresses this puzzle by looking at the introduction in 2008 of an in-work benefit scheme in France, the Ac...

There are competing theoretical expectations and conflicting empirical results concerning the impact of partisanship on spending on active labour market policies (ALMPs). This paper argues that one should distinguish between different ALMPs. Employment incentives and rehabilitation programmes incentivize the unemployed to accept jobs. Direct job cr...

The question of what explains variation in expenditures on Active Labour Market Programs (ALMPs) has attracted significant scholarship in recent years. Significant insights have been gained with respect to the role of employers, unions and dual labour markets, openness, and partisanship. However, there remain significant disagreements with respects...