Tilmann Betsch

Tilmann Betsch
Universität Erfurt | UE · Institut für Psychologie

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106
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Publications

Publications (106)
Article
When relying on the advice of others in decision making, one must consider the fact that advice-givers may vary in terms of predictive accuracy, that is, their history of being correct. We investigated 5- and 6-year-olds’ competence in weighting advice in decision making according to predictive accuracy. Contrary to previous child decision research...
Preprint
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Information forms the basis for beliefs, judgements, decision making, and behavior. Nowadays, the amount of information available is continually increasing. Still, the quality and credibility of the corresponding sources vary widely. Thus, to avoid making judgments and decisions on basis of biased information, the credibility of information and sou...
Article
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Background: Knowledge from educational research frequently contradicts preservice teachers' prior beliefs about educational topics. Such contradictions can seriously affect their attitudes towards educational research and can counteract efforts taken to establish teaching as a research-based profession. Aims: Inspired by Munro's (2010, J. Appl....
Article
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Ten female and five male participants (age range 28–50 years) were recruited at esoteric fairs or via esoteric chatrooms. In a guided face-to-face interview, they reported origins and contents of their beliefs in e.g. esoteric practices, supernatural beings, rebirthing, channeling. Transcripts of the tape-recorded reports were subjected to a qualit...
Article
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In a probabilistic inference task (three probabilistic cues predict outcomes for two options), we examined decisions from 233 children (5–6 vs. 9–10 years). Contiguity (low vs. high; i.e., position of probabilistic information far vs. close to options) and demand for selectivity (low vs. high; i.e., showing predictions of desired vs. desired and un...
Article
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In a sample of 599 participants (60% female, 18–81 years), we tested the hypotheses that cognitive ability and the big-six personality traits suffice to explain the individual-difference component of paranormal beliefs (belief in magic, astrology, esoterism, supernatural beings, and spirituality). Additionally, we measured 14 other potential predic...
Article
When adapting to a risky world, decision makers must be capable of grasping the probabilistic nature of the environment. Developmental research on the ontogeny of the ability to use probabilities thus far has used different paradigms and revealed inconsistent findings. Merging two paradigms (choices based on probabilistic inferences; trust-in-infor...
Article
Adaptive actors must be able to use probabilities as decision weights. In a computerized multi-attribute task, the authors examined the decisions of children (5–6 years, n = 44; 9–10 y., n = 39) and adults (21–22 y., n = 31) in an environment that fosters the application of a weighted-additive strategy that uses probabilities as weights (WADD: choo...
Article
Not all information is equally relevant for making good choices. Do children find it difficult to use information weights for an adaptive information search because of their insensitivity towards search costs? To address this question, we used an information-board game played either with or without search costs to compare decisions of 8-to 10-year-...
Article
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We investigated whether children prefer feedback over stated probabilistic information in decision making. 6-year-olds’, 9-year-olds’, and adults’ making was examined in an environment where probabilistic information about choice outcome had to be actively searched (N = 166) or was available without search (N = 183). Probabilistic information was p...
Article
In many decision situations, individuals must actively search information before they can make a satisfying choice. In such instances, individuals must be aware of the fact that not all information may be equally relevant for the choice at hand – thus, individuals should weight information by its respective relevance. We compared children’s and adu...
Article
Prior evidence has suggested that preschoolers and elementary schoolers search information largely with no systematic plan when making decisions in probabilistic environments. However, this finding might be due to the insensitivity of standard classification methods that assume a lack of variance in decision strategies for tasks of the same kind. U...
Article
To make decisions in probabilistic inference tasks, individuals integrate relevant information partly in an automatic manner. Thereby, potentially irrelevant stimuli that are additionally presented can intrude on the decision process (e.g., Söllner, Bröder, Glöckner, & Betsch, 2014). We investigate whether such an intrusion effect can also be cause...
Article
Weighted-additive (WADD) strategies require decision makers to integrate multiple values weighted by their relevance. From what age can children make choices in line with such a WADD-strategy? We compare multi-attribute decisions of children (6–7; 8–10; 11–12-year-olds) with adults in an open information-board environment without pre-decisional inf...
Book
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This volume contributes to a current debate within the psychology of thought that has wide implications for our ideas about creativity, decision making, and economic behavior. The essays focus on the role of implicit, unconscious thinking in creativity and problem solving, the interaction of intuition and analytic thinking, and the relationship bet...
Article
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Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103 ad...
Article
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Previous studies that examined human judgments of frequency and duration found an asymmetrical relationship: While frequency judgments were quite accurate and independent of stimulus duration, duration judgments were highly dependent upon stimulus frequency. A potential explanation for these findings is that the asymmetry is moderated by the amount...
Article
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Lab experiments and field studies showed that studying improves short-term memory, whereas active retrieval improves long-term memory - a phenomenon known as the quizzing (or testing) effect. In a quasi-experimental field study with four elementary school classes (18 < n < 22) and a pretest - posttest (5 min after the intervention) - posttest (6 we...
Article
Routines help individuals save decision effort and protect them from overreacting to volatile environments. Yet routines become dysfunctional if the environment changes fundamentally. Whether the environment has truly changed is often not easy to tell. We experimentally study adaptation to a change in a previously stable environment. Participants h...
Article
article freely available (open access) at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001691813002692 When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-str...
Article
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Conflict of interest statement The author declares that no conflict of interest exists. An editorial to accompany the articles „Comprehension of the description of side effects in drug information leaflets— a survey of doctors, pharmacists and lawyers“ by A ndreas Ziegler et al. and „Study of perceptions of the extent to which guideline recomme...
Article
Various studies have shown that established decision routines may become detrimental in changing environments. Routines can be formed at the level of options or at the level of strategies which has been demonstrated in different lines of research. It is unclear, however, which routinization level is spontaneously preferred if both are possible and...
Article
We studied risky choices in preschoolers, elementary schoolers, and adults using an information board paradigm crossing two options with two cues that differ in their probability of making valid predictions (p=.50 vs. p=.83). We also varied the presence of normatively irrelevant information. Choice patterns indicate that preschoolers were able to b...
Article
The robust finding that people systematically assign higher monetary values to sell a good they own than they pay to acquire it (i.e., the endowment effect) was recently explained by the differential importance of positive and negative object properties, depending on endowment state. Whether this explanation can also be applied to objects with risk...
Article
Bounded rationality models usually converge in claiming that decision time and the amount of computational steps needed to come to a decision are positively correlated. The empirical evidence for this claim is, however, equivocal. We conducted a study that tests this claim by adding and omitting information. We demonstrate that even an increase in...
Article
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According to Karl Popper, we can tell good theories from poor ones by assessing their empirical content (empirischer Gehalt), which basically reflects how much information they convey concerning the world. ``The empirical content of a statement increases with its degree of falsifiability: the more a statement forbids, the more it says about the wor...
Article
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Attitudes guide behavior. The social-cognitive approach to decision-making has been building on this assumption for almost a century (Allport, 1935). In this field, the model of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1974) was probably the most influential advance in describ-ing the relation between attitudes and behavior. Accordingly, attitudes are...
Article
In two experiments we studied the effects of behavioral models on routine deviation decisions in observers. Participants repeatedly chose among four card-deck lotteries together with a human model (confederate, Exp. 1) or a non-human model (computer, Exp. 2) that made correct decisions in the majority of the trials. In a learning phase, participant...
Article
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Health-related information found on the Internet is increasing and impacts patient decision making, e.g. regarding vaccination decisions. In addition to statistical information (e.g. incidence rates of vaccine adverse events), narrative information is also widely available such as postings on online bulletin boards. Previous research has shown that...
Article
Welche verschiedenen Ziele können Menschen in Urteilssituationen verfolgen? Welche Erklärungen gibt es dafür, dass Urteile kongruent zu der Stimmung des Urteilenden getroffen werden? Wie wirkt sich Stimmung generell auf die menschliche Informationsverarbeitung aus? Welche Rolle spielt für Urteile die Tatsache, dass die kognitive Aktivität in ein...
Chapter
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Was bedeuten Einsicht und Aha-Erlebnisse? Welche Rolle spielen Einstellungseffekte? Wodurch helfen Analogien beim Problemlösen? Warum löst man besser Probleme, wenn man Erfahrung mitbringt? Was versteht man unter der Notfallreaktion des kognitiven Systems?
Article
Welche Prozesse des Denkens liegen Entscheidungen zugrunde? Auf welche Weise lassen sich Entscheidungssituationen systematisch beschreiben und darstellen? Wie wurden Entscheidungen auf theoretischer Ebene erklärt und vorhergesagt (historische Zugänge)? Welche Typen von Entscheidungstheorien werden heute unterschieden? Wie lässt sich der Prozess des...
Article
Was sind die wichtigsten Theorien auf dem Gebiet des Denkens und Problemlösens? Welche Rolle spielen Symbole bei der Informationsverarbeitung? Warum ist das Konzept des Problemraums nützlich? Welche Erklärung liefern evolutionspsychologische Ansätze? Was unterscheidet Handlungstheorien von anderen Ansätzen?
Article
Worum geht es beim Urteilen, worin besteht der Unterschied zum Entscheiden? Welche Arten von Urteilen lassen sich unterscheiden? Wie hat sich die »Psychologie des Urteilens« entwickelt? Welche Klassen von psychologischen Urteilstheorien lassen sich unterscheiden?
Article
Was versteht man unter »begrenzter Rationalität« und welche Konsequenzen ergeben sich aus diesem Ansatz für die Entscheidungsforschung? Welche wichtigen Strategien zur Informationssuche und Entscheidung werden in der Literatur beschrieben und wie kann man deren Verwendung empirisch nachweisen? Wie kann man erklären und vorhersagen wann eine bestimm...
Article
– Welchen Prinzipien sollten Entscheidungen nach der normativen Nutzentheorie folgen? – Auf welche Weise verletzen Menschen bei ihren Entscheidungen diese normativen Prinzipien? – Auf welche Weise können weiterentwickelte Nutzentheorien die Verletzung der normativen Prinzipien erklären?
Article
Welche normativen Regeln gibt es, die beschreiben, wie Urteile idealerweise gebildet werden sollten? Was sind Urteilsheuristiken und wann werden sie verwendet? Was sind kognitive Täuschungen, wodurch werden sie verursacht? Was besagen Zwei-Prozess-Theorien und welche Modi der Urteilsbildung lassen sich danach unterscheiden?
Article
Welche Rolle spielt die Wahrnehmung für Urteile? Warum beruhen viele Urteile auf proximalen Cues? Welche Stichprobeneigenschaften haben einen Einfluss auf die Genauigkeit von Urteilen? Wie kann sich Vorwissen auf Urteile auswirken? Warum führt das Testen einer Hypothese häufiger zu ihrer Bestätigung als zu ihrer Widerlegung?
Article
Welchen Einfluss hat die Kategorisierung eines Urteilsobjekts auf seine Beurteilung? Wie wirkt es sich aus, in welcher Reihenfolge Informationen über ein Urteilsobjekt präsentiert werden? Welche Effekte haben Vergleiche zwischen Urteilsobjekten? Warum kann die »Natürlichkeit« des Informationsformats einen Einfluss auf die Genauigkeit von Urteilen h...
Article
Mit welchen Prozessen des Denkens befasst sich die Urteils-, Entscheidungs- und Problemlöseforschung? Welche historischen Entwicklungslinien kennzeichnen dieses Forschungsfeld? Wie können Sie sich über aktuelle Entwicklungen in diesem Feld informieren?
Article
Was macht ein Problem zum Problem? Welche Rolle spielen Ziele? Woran erkennt man verschiedene Arten von Problemen? Welche Vorgehensweisen stehen zur Verfügung?
Article
Wie beeinflussen Untersuchungsmethoden die Erkenntnismöglichkeiten? Wie lassen sich Denken und Problemlösen methodisch untersuchen? Warum ist die Introspektion unbefriedigend? Welche Vorteile bietet die Verwendung computersimulierter Szenarien? Bietet die Analyse von Blickbewegungen vertiefte Einsichten? Was sind Stärken und Schwächen bildgebe...
Article
Welche fundamentale Bedeutung haben Gefühle für das menschliche Erleben und Verhalten? Auf welche Weise können Gefühle den Prozess des Entscheidens beeinflussen? Auf welche Weise können Gefühle zum Entscheidungskriterium werden?
Article
Welche Rolle spielt die eigene Erfahrung bei Entscheidungen? Was versteht man unter Besitztumseffekten und wie wirken sie sich auf Entscheidungen aus? Was passiert nach der Entscheidung mit unseren Bewertungen und Erwartungen? Wie wirken sich Verhaltensroutinen auf nachfolgende Entscheidungen aus?
Article
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Rationality in decision making is commonly assessed by comparing choice performance against normative standards. We argue that such a performance-centered approach blurs the distinction between rational choice and adaptive behavior. Instead, rational choice should be assessed with regard to the way individuals make analytic decisions. We suggest th...
Article
Die allgemeine Psychologie in 4 kompakten Bänden! – Stellen Sie sich je nach Studien- und Prüfungsschwerpunkten aus dieser neuen Reihe die Module zusammen, die Sie benötigen. Dieser Band enthält alle prüfungsrelevanten Themen des Faches „Denken“: Im Teil „Entscheiden“ werden die zentralen Phasen des Entscheidungsprozesses vorgestellt, von der Infor...
Book
Full-text available
Die allgemeine Psychologie in 5 kompakten Bänden! Stellen Sie sich je nach Studien- und Prüfungsschwerpunkten aus dieser neuen Reihe die Module zusammen, die Sie benötigen. Dieser Band enthält alle prüfungsrelevanten Themen des Faches Denken : Im Teil Entscheiden werden die zentralen Phasen des Entscheidungsprozesses vorgestellt, von der Informatio...
Article
The fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non-reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or...
Article
In Glöckner, Betsch and Schindler (2010) we observed predecisional information distortions (coherence shifts) in probabilistic inferences that indicate bidirectional reasoning. In response to Marewski's (2010) critique, we explain why coherence shifts cannot be explained by currently specified fast and frugal heuristics (FFH). In contrast, parallel...
Article
Full-text available
We claim that intuition is capable of quickly processing multiple pieces of information without noticeable cognitive effort. We advocate a component view stating that intuitive processes in judgment and decision making are responsible for information integration and output formation (e.g., preference, choice), whereas analytic thinking mainly guide...
Conference Paper
I claim that intuition is capable of quickly processing multiple pieces of information without noticeable cognitive effort. I advocate a component view stating that intuitive processes in judgment and decision making are responsible for information integration and preference formation. Analytic thinking mainly guides search, generation and change o...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines conditions that do or do not lead to accurate judgments of frequency (JOF) and judgments of duration (JOD). In three experiments, duration and frequency of visually presented stimuli are varied orthogonally in a within-subjects design. Experiment 1 reveals an asymmetric judgment pattern. JOFs reflected actual presentation freque...
Article
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This large-scale Internet-experiment tests whether vaccine-critical pages raise perceptions of the riskiness of vaccinations and alter vaccination intentions. We manipulated the information environment (vaccine-critical website, control, both) and the focus of search (on vaccination risks, omission risks, no focus). Our analyses reveal that accessi...
Article
This research considers situations in which individuals explicitly form attitude judgments toward a target object after considering a sample of information. Previous research shows sample-size effects under such conditions: Increasing sample size can produce more extreme judgments. Commonly, these effects are attributed to summative processes in in...
Article
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It has been repeatedly shown that in decisions under time constraints, individuals predominantly use noncompensatory strategies rather than complex compensatory ones. The authors argue that these findings might be due not to limitations of cognitive capacity but instead to limitations of information search imposed by the commonly used experimental...
Article
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It has been shown that in decision making evaluations of evidence and attributes are modified. In three studies it was investigated if this finding of coherence shifts generalizes to real-world probabilistic inference decisions which are made from given probabilistic cues. Using a within-subjects design, cue validities were measured before, after (...
Article
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We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers for modeling processes of decision making and discuss...
Article
Full-text available
We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers for modeling processes of decision making and discuss...
Article
Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs betw...
Article
Brandstatter, Gigerenzer and Hertwig (2006) put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensato...
Article
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Typizitätsnormen für Vertreter von 30 Kategorien wurden an einer Stich-probe von 85 Versuchspersonen erhoben. Die bereits für den deutschen Sprachraum vorliegenden Produktionsnormen wurden für 25 Kategoriebe-griffe aktualisiert und um fünf neue Kategorien erweitert. Für jede Katego-rie wird eine Liste aller genannten Exemplare mit folgenden Exempla...
Article
Recent research provides evidence that implicit attitude formation is guided by a summation principle (Betsch, Plessner, Schwieren, & Gütig, 2001). This finding contradicts models claiming that attitudes form from the average value of stimulus information (e.g., Anderson, 1981). In this paper, we show that the application of an integration rule dep...
Article
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Zusammenfassung. Erwachsene Personen verfügen über ein großes Repertoire an Routinen, d.h. sie kennen Handlungen, die zielführend für wiederkehrende Entscheidungssituationen sind. Die kognitive Entscheidungsforschung vernachlässigte über lange Zeit die Rolle von Routinen. Das Papier gibt einen Überblick über rezente Forschungen, die sich mit dem Ei...
Article
In two experiments, we assessed the effects of decision routines on the effectiveness of implementing routine-deviation intentions in binary decisions. Frequency of prior routine repetition and time pressure were varied as the independent variables. We assumed that, under severe time pressure, individuals will tend to maintain their routine when re...
Article
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In a laboratory experiment, we compare the relative impact of two possible determinants of intuitive evaluative judgments: ease of recognition and total value of prior encounters with a target. Participants encode daily return values of shares on the stock market while watching videotaped ads on the computer screen. This dual-task procedure ensures...
Article
In their comments on a study on penalty decisions in soccer (Plessner & Betsch, 2001), Mascarenhas, Collins, and Mortimer (2002) point to several factors that, in their view, weaken the external validity of this laboratory study. In our response, we argue that although it may be helpful to substantiate the prior findings in a study closer to the na...
Article
This chapter examines the predictive power of Tversky and Kahneman's availability approach to frequency estimation. It is shown that the original formulation of the availability approach does not provide a falsifiable theory that would allow us to derive a priori predictions about the psychological mechanisms by which people arrive at frequency jud...
Article
We review theories of preferential decision making and apply them to explain and predict the choices made by experienced individuals. Specifically, we focus on decision problems for which the actor already has a potential solution or routine available. We start with a brief overview of research evidencing the manifold ways in which such routines ca...
Article
Hertwig and Ortmann suggest paying participants contingent upon performance in order to increase the thoroughness they devote to a decision task. We argue that monetary incentives can yield a number of unintended effects including distortions of the subjective representation of the task and impaired performance. Therefore, we conclude that performa...
Article
The strength of decision routines was manipulated within a computer-controlled micro world simulation involving recurrent decision making. During a learning phase, participants were led to prefer a certain brand of an industrial good either about 15 times in a weak routine or about 30 times in a strong routine condition. In the test phase of Experi...
Article
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The authors suggest a theory that predicts how summary evaluations about targets are implicitly formed and stored in memory and under which conditions they are used in attitude judgment. First, it is assumed that the mere encoding of value-charged stimuli is a sufficient condition to initiate implicit online formation of summary evaluations. Second...
Article
We varied outcome frame (presentation of the options' outcomes as gains vs. losses) and problem domain (gain vs. loss problem) in a monetary decision task. The experiment was a conceptual replication of a study conducted by Highhouse and Paese (1996, Exp. 2). In deviation from the former study, we presented the variants of the decision problem audi...
Article
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In a study on penalty decisions in soccer, one hundred-fifteen participants who were either referees or players made decisions as referees for each of 20 videotaped scenes from an actual match. In three scenes, potential fouls were committed by defenders in their penalty areas. The first two scenes involved the same team and the third scene occurre...
Article
Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses on sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming...
Article
There is an ongoing debate whether frequency judgments are based on mental magnitudes reflecting prior on-line recording of frequencies or on recall content available at the time of judgment. We conducted four experiments to demonstrate that task characteristics can determine which kind of information (mental magnitude vs. recall content) is used i...