Tijs Alleman

Ghent University | UGhent · Department of Mathematical Modelling and Data Analysis

Human behavior significantly influences infectious disease transmission, yet traditional models often overlook this factor, limiting predictions of disease and the associated socioeconomic impacts. We introduce a feedback-informed epidemiological model that integrates economic decision-making with infectious disease dynamics. Individuals weigh cost...

This work validates a previously established dynamical input-output model to quantify the impact of economic shocks caused by COVID-19 in the UK using data from Belgium. To this end, we used four time series of economically relevant indicators for Belgium. We identified eight model parameters that could potentially impact the results and varied the...

We analyse and mutually compare time series of covid-19 -related data and mobility data across Belgium's 43 arrondissements (NUTS 3). In this way, we reach three conclusions. First, we could detect a decrease in mobility during high-incidence stages of the pandemic. This is expressed as a sizeable change in the average amount of time spent outside...

In this work we present our generic framework to construct, simulate and calibrate dynamical systems in Python 3. Its goal is to reduce the time it takes to implement a dynamical system with n-dimensional states represented by coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs), simulate the system deterministically or stochastically, and, calibrate the...

In this work we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium. The model is geographically stratified into eleven provinces and a telecommunication dataset provided by Belgium's biggest operator is used to incorporate interprovincial mobility. We introduce variants, seasonality, and vaccines in our model, as t...

Given that social interactions drive the spread of infectious diseases amongst humans, one anticipates that human mobility in Belgium affected the spread of COVID-19 during both 2020 "waves". Measures against this spread in turn influenced mobility patterns. In this study, we analyse and mutually compare time series of COVID-19-related data and mob...

In this report, we bring our epidemiological models in line with the additional measures taken between November 22nd, 2021, and January 28th, 2022, and reassess their impact on the fourth Belgian COVID-19 wave. A larger reduction of leisure contacts results in a faster decrease of COVID-19 hospitalizations and a lower overall burden of disease for...

In this report, we use two epidemiological models to explore the relative effects of three non-pharmaceutical interventions between November 17th, 2021, and December 24th, 2021 on the COVID-19 related hospitalizations during the fall and winter of 2021 in Belgium. Although the healthcare system will most likely not be overwhelmed by the fourth CO...

We present a compartmental extended SEIQRD metapopulation model for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium. We demonstrate the robustness of the calibration procedure by calibrating the model using incrementally larger datasets and dissect the model results by computing the effective reproduction number at home, in workplaces, in schools, and during leisure...

Objectives The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has had a major impact on our society, with drastic policy restrictions being implemented to contain the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This study aimed to provide an overview of the available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of various coronavirus disease 2019 polic...

This report describes the combined impact of different social distancing scenarios, the 501Y.V1 variant and the ongoing vaccination campaign in Belgium and illustrates the importance of epidemic control in the period up to August 1, 2021. • Changing social distancing behaviour as a result of lifting measures too soon might, in spite of the ongoing...

As a response to a rapidly rising number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the Belgian government imposed strict social contact restrictions on March 13th, 2020. After nearly two months, the curve was succesfully flattened and social restrictions were gradually released. Unfortunately, pharmaceutical interventions are not yet available so it is expected th...

Understand how the long-term government response to the Covid-19 outbreak can be optimised using mathematical methods commonly used in chemical engineering. Using a discrete model predictive controller (MPC), it is possible to come up with an optimal government response to the covid-19 outbreak that does not overload the number ICU beds in Belgium...