Tianjun Zhou

Tianjun Zhou
Chinese Academy of Sciences | CAS · Institute of Atmospheric Physics

PhD

About

680
Publications
147,532
Reads
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24,455
Citations
Citations since 2017
214 Research Items
15729 Citations
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201720182019202020212022202301,0002,0003,000
201720182019202020212022202301,0002,0003,000
Introduction
Prof. & Dr. Tianjun Zhou is a senior research scientist in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), and adjunct Professor in the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS). Tianjun ZHOU works on climate modeling and climate dynamics, with focus on monsoon variability, climate extremes and how the global monsoon system responds to anthropogenic and natural forcing agents.
Additional affiliations
January 2004 - present
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Position
  • Professor (Full)
Description
  • The course of "Numerical Modeling of ocean circulation and air-sea interaction"
June 1999 - present
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Position
  • Professor (Full)
Description
  • we work on climate change and climate modeing
January 1999 - present
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Position
  • Professor (Full)
Description
  • we work on climate change and climate modeling
Education
September 1996 - July 1999
Peking University
Field of study
  • Meteorology
September 1991 - July 1994
Nanjing University
Field of study
  • Department of Atmospheric Sciences
September 1987 - July 1991
Nanjing University
Field of study
  • Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Publications

Publications (680)
Article
本文基于观测、再分析资料和中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG国家重点实验室最新版本气候系统模式FGOALS-g3,探究了海气相互作用在东亚夏季风及其对前冬El Niño响应模拟中的贡献。大气环流模式(AGCM)模拟的气候态夏季风雨带偏东,东亚季风区表现为干偏差,耦合模式(CGCM)虽模拟出了夏季风雨带的位置,但降水偏弱。AGCM由于缺乏海气耦合过程,夏季西北太平洋地区对流模拟过强,使得副高偏东、南中国海季风槽偏东,造成东亚夏季风雨雨带偏东;东亚陆地区域水汽偏少,也是降水干偏差的一个重要原因,此两项可以解释70%以上的干偏差。在考虑海气相互作用后,西北太平洋的降水正异常减弱了局地海表温度,因此CGCM显著改进了副高以及南中国海季风槽偏东等偏差,使得夏季风雨带位置得到改进,季风区降水干偏差减小了3...
Article
Full-text available
The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions, a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extre...
Article
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In the summer (July and August) of 2022, unprecedented heat wave occurred along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) over East Asia while unprecedented flood occurred over western South Asia (WSA), which are located on the eastern and western sides of Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, by analyzing the interannual variability based on observational and reanalys...
Article
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A severe agricultural drought swept Central Asia in 2021, causing mass die-offs of crops and livestock. The anthropogenic contribution to declines in soil moisture in this region over recent decades has remained unclear. Here we show from analysis of large ensemble simulations that the aggravation of agricultural droughts over southern Central Asia...
Article
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Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is one of the dominant modes of interannual variability in the Indian Ocean, which has global climate impacts and thus is one of the key targets of seasonal predictions. In this study, based on a century-long seasonal hindcast experiment from the Coupled Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th century (CSF-20C), we show that the pr...
Article
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The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), an important climate signal in regulating the interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer rainfall, is closely related to a meridional precipitation dipole pattern between the southeastern and northeastern TP. In this study, based on diagnoses of observations and multiple realizations of the...
Article
Droughts are one of the climate extremes that occur frequently in drylands, constraining the terrestrial carbon uptake and water cycle processes. Studies about the long-term changes in the effect of drought stress on dryland ecosystems under global warming are still insufficient so far. Here we comprehensively investigate long-term changes in droug...
Article
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As a new generation of global climate models, monsoon simulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 models is of great concern to climate modeling community. Using 21 CMIP3 models, 28 CMIP5 models and 38 CMIP6 models, we show evidence that the long-standing dry biases in South Asia (SA) are resulted from less rainfall with both...
Article
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The Northern Hemisphere (NH) often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Niña winters. In 2022, a third-year La Niña event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022. Under such a significant global climate signal, whether the Eura...
Preprint
Full-text available
The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) remarkably strengthened during the Middle Miocene (16–11 Ma), coincident with the rapid uplifts of the Iranian Plateau (IP) and the Himalaya (HM). Although the development of the SASM has long been linked to the topographic changes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, the effects of the HM and IP uplift are stil...
Article
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Projected changes of future precipitation extremes exhibit substantial uncertainties among climate models, posing grand challenges to climate actions and adaptation planning. Practical methods for narrowing the projection uncertainty remain elusive. Here, using large model ensembles, we show that the uncertainty in projections of future extratropic...
Article
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As the Earth's primary energy source, surface downward solar radiation (R s) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation. Future projections of R s based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal. Here we assess 2...
Article
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As the Earth's primary energy source, surface downward solar radiation (Rs) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation. Future projections of Rs based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal. Here we assess 24...
Article
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Changes in summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influence the surface runoff, river discharge and water availability for the downstream Asian countries, which is sensitive to external forcing. But its response to volcanic eruptions remains unknown. Here we investigate the summer precipitation changes after tropical volca...
Article
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During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the Western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud-SST feedback. In...
Article
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Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of...
Article
The subtropical North Pacific and North Atlantic are controlled by basin-scale anticyclones in boreal summer. Based on a novel metric regarding the strengths of the rotational and the divergent circulation of anticyclones, we investigated the possible future responses in the intensity of these two subtropical anticyclones to global warming. While t...
Article
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Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these t...
Article
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The mid-Holocene (MH; 6 ka) is one of the benchmark periods for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and provides a unique opportunity to study monsoon dynamics and orbital forcing (i.e., mostly precession) that differ significantly from the present day. We conducted a data–model comparison along with a dynamic analysis to inves...
Article
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Understanding the climate controls of precipitation δ¹⁸O in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for paleoclimate reconstructions from a wealth of regional archives. We use the outputs of iCAM5 model to quantify the different moisture contribution to local precipitation δ¹⁸O and to understand the climate controls of precipitation δ¹⁸O in the TP base...
Article
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The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread exists. Here we show that the projection spread is r...
Article
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Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important to local and downstream ecosystems. Based on a weighting method considering model skill and independence, changes in the TP precipitation for near-term (2021–40), mid-term (2041–60) and long-term (2081–2100) under shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSSP3-7.0, SSP5-8...
Article
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Plain Language Summary Henan is one of the most populated provinces in China. Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused devastating catastrophes, such as flooding and urban waterlogging, which resulted in widespread impacts on agricultural production, human livelihood, and economic development. We used a clus...
Article
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The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880. In addition to large-scale warming, 2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes. Here, a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021, with a focus on China, along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented. Nine extreme events...
Article
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Anthropogenic emissions decreased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, but its possible effect on monsoon is unclear. Based on coupled models participating in the COVID Model Intercomparison Project (COVID-MIP), we show modeling evidence that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is enhanced by 2.2% in terms of precipitation and by 5.4% in ter...
Article
Full-text available
Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most important interannual circulation anomalies over the western Pacific warm pool, which can persist from boreal winter to following summer and has great impacts on the East Asian monsoon. The maintenance of the WNPAC in boreal summer was explained by Ekman divergence anomalies over the w...
Article
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This study investigates future changes in daily precipitation extremes and the involved physics over the global land monsoon (GM) region using climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The daily precipitation extreme is identified by the cutoff scale, measuring the extreme tail of the precipitation distributi...
Article
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The interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer climate has tremendous impacts on both regional hydrological cycles and global climate. In this study, we extract four dominant modes of the summertime large-scale circulation over the TP and surrounding areas from both the observation and simulations by a coupled general circu- lation mode...
Article
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An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga, erupted violently on 15 January 2022. Potential climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern to the public; here, we intend to size up the impact of the HTHH eruption from a historical perspective. The influence of historical v...
Article
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The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded jointly to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi for their groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex systems. This is the first time that climate scientists were awarded the Nobel Physics Prize. Here, we present the evolution of climate science in the past ∼200 years and...
Article
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Precipitation changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), “Asian Water Tower”, greatly affect water resources of the surrounding countries. A dipole pattern in summer precipitation trend over the TP is observed for 1961–2013, increasing over the north TP (NTP) and decreasing over the south TP (STP). Since the TP is one of the most vulnerable regions to...
Article
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To connect a wide range of research communities including climate change mitigation and adaptation activities, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th assessment report (AR6) employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The CORDEX East Asia calls for a dynamical downscaling of climate change projections under the new S...
Article
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While there is high confidence that human activities have increased the likelihood and severity of hot extreme events over many parts of the world, there is notable spread in quantitative estimates of anthropogenic influence even on a single event. To better understand the uncertainty of attribution results, here we compare different event attribut...
Article
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The regional economy in Yunnan, Southwest China, relies heavily on tea production. Both the quality and amount of tea production are sensitive to extreme climate events, but exactly how different timescale climate events influence tea production remains unknown. In this study, we explore the dynamic responses of tea production indices in Baoshan, Y...
Article
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The first rainy season (April-May-June) of South China includes the phases before and after the onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon (hereafter SCSSM). Abundant moisture supply is the key dynamic process for precipitation formation. Thus, we employ the FLEXPART model to explore the corresponding moisture sources for the two phases. Before the on...
Article
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The observational records have shown a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) since 1979. However, whether the observed change is forced by external forcing or internal variability remains inconclusive, a solid answer to more societal relevantly question of how the PWC will change in the near future is still a challenge. Here we perf...
Preprint
Full-text available
Anthropogenic emissions decreased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, but its possible effect on monsoon is unclear. Based on coupled models participating in the COVID Model Intercomparison Project (COVID-MIP), we show modeling evidence that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is enhanced in terms of both precipitation and circulation, and...
Article
This study used the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to examine the moisture sources and pathways associated with warm-season precipitation over the Sichuan Basin (SCB), southwestern China, with emphasis on the long-term mean state and interannual variability. Four groups of moisture pathways were identified o...
Article
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It has been challenging to simulate the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) using general circulation models. By evaluating the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) model and its revised version in the version‐5 Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5), we find that EASM simulations benefit from improving the reproduction of low clouds over the Tibetan...
Article
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The summer of 2020 recorded a record-breaking flood due to excessive mei-yu rain falling over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Using the Lagrangian model FLEXPART, this paper investigates moisture sources and transport processes behind this extreme event. Based on climate data from 1979 to 2019, the air-particle (an infinitesimally small air parcel)...
Article
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The timing of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rain belt onset and northward march is crucial to Eastern China's agriculture production and social economy. The seasonal march of the EASM is divided into four stages, corresponding to the South China Sea, South China, Meiyu and North China rain belt. Previous studies have used a potential pseudo-...
Article
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Eastern China experienced excessive Meiyu rainfall in the summer of 2020, with a long rainy season and frequent extreme rainfall events. Extreme rainfall occurred on daily to monthly time scales. In particular, persistent heavy rainfall events occurred; e.g., the maximum accumulated rainfall over four consecutive weeks (Rx28day) in the lower reache...
Article
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Based on ten pairs of atmospheric general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, we find that high-resolution models (HRMs, ~50 km) perform better than low-resolution models (LRMs, ~100 km) in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rain belt. We attribute the...
Article
Soil erosion is one of the major threats to the environment and agriculture in the world and rainfall erosivity is the most active factor to lead changes in soil erosion. Here, we use statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Community Earth Syatem Model (CESM) low-warming simulations to investigate the future changes in rainfall erosivity in mainla...
Chapter
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A monsoon refers to a seasonal transition of regimes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation in response to the annual cycle of solar insolation and the distribution of moist static energy (Wang and Ding, 2008; Wang et al., 2014; Biasutti et al., 2018). A global monsoon can be objectively identified based on precipitation contrasts in the sols...
Article
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Known as one of the largest semi-arid to arid region in the world, central Asian economy and ecosystem are highly sensitivity to the changes in precipitation. The observed precipitation and related hydrographic characteristics have exhibited robust decadal variations in the past decades, but the reason remains unknown. Using the pacemaker experimen...
Article
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Both proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under E...
Article
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is known as Asian Water Tower and its atmospheric water cycle has been a lasting challenge to climate modeling community. Here, we compare two sets of the Met Office Unified Model simulations—one is a convection‐parameterized version (large‐scale model; LSM) and the other is a convection‐permitting model (CPM) simulation. T...
Article
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The hydrological cycle intensifies under global warming with precipitation increases. How the increased precipitation varies temporally at a given location has vital implications for regional climates and ecosystem services. On the basis of ensemble climate model projections under a high-emission scenario, here, we show that approximately two-third...
Article
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Southeast Asian monsoon region is regularly stricken by drought, but less attention is paid due to its slow-onset and less visual impact. This study investigated the observed drought changes over Southeast Asian monsoon region and impacts of anthropogenic forcing using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We revealed an increas...
Article
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Skillful near-term climate predictions of rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Asian water tower, benefit billions of people. On the basis of the state-of-the-art decadal prediction models, we showed evidence that although the raw model outputs show low predicted ability for the summer Inner TP (ITP) rainfall due to low signal-to-noise ratio...
Article
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The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is a key bridge that links El Niño and East Asian climate variability. Future projections of ENSO-related WNPAC changes under global warming are highly uncertain across climate models. Based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project, we inve...
Article
Climate models are fundamental to understanding climate change and anticipating its risks. They provide the basis for predicting impacts, guiding adaptation decisions and setting mitigation targets. Society now needs more detailed and precise information to enable robust decision-making in the face of rapidly amplifying climate change and for achie...
Article
We present results from the first 6 years of this major UK government funded project to accelerate and enhance collaborative research and development in climate science, forge a strong strategic partnership between UK and Chinese climate scientists and demonstrate new climate services developed in partnership. The development of novel climate servi...
Article
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Plain Language Summary The northern Central Asia (NCA) is facing a crisis of water resources shortage. And the reduction of summer rainfall since the 1950s has resulted in severe drought and the degradation of vegetation over there. Understanding why precipitation changes in this drought‐prone region is of vital importance for the agriculture, ecos...
Article
Full-text available
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), two leading modes of decadal climate variability, are not independent. It was proposed that ENSO-like sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a central role in the Pacific responses to the AMO forcing. However, observational analyses indicate that the AMO-rela...