Tian Zhou

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory | PNNL · Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts of modeling this phenomenon often rely on models that do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere-land-river-ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have no...

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, thereby affecting climate via changes in water, energy, and biogeochemical cycling. Previous assessments of these historical climate effects of irrigation expansion predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify th...

Coastal zone compound flooding (CF) can be caused by the interactive fluvial and oceanic processes, particularly when coastal backwater propagates upstream and interacts with high river discharge. The modeling of CF is limited in existing Earth System Models (ESMs) due to coarse mesh resolutions and one‐way coupled river‐ocean components. In this s...

The Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here we study the impacts of land cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model, ELM-ParFlow, we simul...

Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high em...

Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by a river routing model coupled with a land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: r...

The water cycle is an important component of the earth system and it plays a key role in many facets of society, including energy production, agriculture, and human health and safety. In this study, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is run with low‐resolution (roughly 110 km) and high‐resolution (roughly 25 km) configuration...

Flow direction modeling consists of (a) an accurate representation of the river network and (b) digital elevation model (DEM) processing to preserve characteristics with hydrological significance. In part 1 of our study, we presented a mesh‐independent approach to representing river networks on different types of meshes. This follow‐up part 2 study...

Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent a major threat to coastal communities and cause billions of dollars in economic damage yearly. Much of the TC damage is due to extreme flooding caused by a combination of coastal storm surge and heavy rainfall runoff. Accurate modeling of flooding hazards due to TCs needs to account for all relevant factors. Howeve...

Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by river routing model coupled with land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: runof...

This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characteri...

Inland wetlands are important ecosystems sustained by excessive water. Climate change can alter wetland extent and functions, but such impacts are unclear because hydroclimatic changes influence wetland processes in different ways. Here we project future changes in wetland characteristics over North America under low and high emission scenarios, us...

Thawing of permanently frozen ground (permafrost) has increased in recent decades with negative implications for human and non-human adaptation to climate change. Impacts include reduced ground stability, increased transportation risk, and changes in water availability. Direct measurements of permafrost active layer thickness (the depth of thawed g...

Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representatio...

Abstract River networks are important features in surface hydrology. However, accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic and Earth system models is often sensitive to the model's spatial resolution. Specifically, river networks are often misrepresented because of the mismatch between the model's spatial resolution an...

Permafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface‐atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, espec...

The E3SM Diagnostics Package (E3SM Diags) is a modern, Python-based Earth system model (ESM) evaluation tool (with Python module name e3sm_diags), developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM Diags provides a wide suite of tools for evaluating native E3SM output, as well as ESM data on regular...

This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolu...

This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled Regionally Refined Model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characteri...

Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to...

Floodplain inundation links river and land systems through significant water, sediment, and nutrient exchanges. However, these two‐way interactions between land and river are currently missing in most Earth System Models. In this study, we introduced the two‐way hydrological coupling between the land component, E3SM Land Model, and the river compon...

Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as the result of elevated sea level, 10 high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth System Models (ESMs), partly d...

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub‐basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in t...

This paper documents the experimental setup and general features of the coupled historical and future climate simulations with the first version of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1.0). The future projected climate characteristics of E3SMv1.0 at the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) designed in the Scen...

The E3SM Diagnostics Package (E3SM Diags) is a modern, Python-based Earth System Model (ESM) evaluation tool (with Python module name e3sm_diags), developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM Diags provides a wide suite of tools for evaluating native E3SM output, as well as ESM data on regular...

Suspended sediment plays a vital role in the regional and global cycling of carbon and nutrients by carrying carbon and nutrients from headwaters into lowland rivers and the oceans. Sediment transport through river systems is often fundamentally modified by human activities such as reservoir management. However, a physically based representation of...

Controlled field experiments to disentangle the effect of canopy density from the effect of climate on snowpack dynamics are limited by the underlying linkage between canopy density and climate. Thus, based on observations alone, it is not well understood how variations in canopy density can affect snow processes under different climate regimes. To...

Watershed delineation and flow direction representation are the foundations of streamflow routing in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling. A recent study showed that hexagon-based watershed discretization has several advantages compared to the traditional Cartesian (latitude-longitude) discretization, such as uniform connectivity and compatibi...

This paper documents the experimental setup and general features of the coupled historical and future climate simulations with the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1.0). The future projected climate characteristics of E3SMv1.0 at the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) designed in the Sc...

Suspended sediment plays a vital role in the regional and global cycling of carbon and nutrients by carrying carbon and nutrients from headwaters into lowland rivers and the oceans. Sediment transport through river systems is often fundamentally modified by human activities like reservoir management. However, a physically based representation of se...

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which...

Abstract Irrigation supports agricultural production, but widespread use of irrigation can perturb the regional and global water cycle. The one‐way coupled irrigation scheme used in some land surface models and Earth system models assumes that surface water demand is always met and ignores the surface water constraints, leading to overestimation of...

Climate change is expected to affect the availability of water for electricity generation, yet the propagation of climate impacts across a large and diverse power grid remains unexplored. In this study, we evaluate how projected changes in water availability affect electricity generation at hydroelectric and thermal power plants and how the coincid...

Abstract This paper documents the biogeochemistry configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), E3SMv1.1‐BGC. The model simulates historical carbon cycle dynamics, including carbon losses predicted in response to land use and land cover change, and the responses of the carbon cycle to changes in climate. In addition, we introduce...

To assist river restoration efforts we need to slow the rate of river degradation. This study provides a detailed explanation of the hydraulic complexity loss when a meandering river is straightened in order to motivate the protection of river channel curvature. We used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to document the difference in flow...

Water management activities affect the terrestrial water cycle by increasing water supply and redistributing the water and energy budgets over irrigated agricultural land. However, the dynamics of how water management activities interact with the terrestrial water and energy budgets have not been sufficiently studied over Indian subcontinental Basi...

Abstract This study provides an overview of the coupled high‐resolution Version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents the characteristics of a 50‐year‐long high‐resolution control simulation with time‐invariant 1950 forcings following the HighResMIP protocol. In terms of global root‐mean‐squared error metrics, this high...

Despite the serious threats posed by floods, the driving mechanisms of floods are still not well understood. Here we apply a physically based inundation model coupled with a river routing model (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART)) within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) framework to investigate flood inundation dynamics....

Despite the serious threats posed by floods, the driving mechanisms of floods are still not well understood. Here, we apply a physically‐based inundation model coupled with a river routing model (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, MOSART) within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) framework to investigate flood inundation dynamics....

Despite the serious threats posed by floods, the driving mechanisms of floods are still not well understood. Here, we apply a physically‐based inundation model coupled with a river routing model (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, MOSART) within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) framework to investigate flood inundation dynamics....

Abstract This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission‐relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110‐km grid spacing), ocean and sea...

Irrigation modulates the terrestrial water budget in intensively irrigated regions. However, the influence of irrigation on water budget and land surface temperature (LST) has not been quantified in Indian subcontinental river basins. Here, using the in situ and satellite‐based observations and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model with irrigati...

Hydrologic exchange is a critical mechanism that shapes hydrological and biogeochemical processes along a river corridor. Because of limitations in field accessibility, computational demand, and complexities of geomorphology and subsurface geology, full three‐dimensional modeling studies to quantify hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) have been limit...

Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate ch...

In the western United States, 27% of electricity demand is met by hydropower, so power system planners have a key interest in predicting hydropower availability under changing climate conditions. Large-scale projections of hydropower generation are often simplified based on regression relationships with runoff and they are not always ready to infor...

Many plot‐scale studies have shown that snow‐cover dynamics in forest gaps are distinctly different from those in open and continuously forested areas, and forest gaps have the potential to alter the magnitude and timing of snowmelt. However, the watershed‐level impacts of canopy gap treatment on streamflows are largely unknown. Here, we present th...

Hydrologic exchange flux (HEF) is an important hydrologic component in river corridors that includes both bidirectional (hyporheic) and unidirectional (gaining/losing) surface water-groundwater exchanges. Quantifying HEF rates in a large regulated river is difficult due to the large spatial domains, complexity of geomorphologic features and subsurf...

Snow-cover dynamics in forest gaps are distinctly different from those in open and continuously forested areas, and canopy gaps have the potential to increase snow retention and alter the snow regime. However, prior work has focused mainly on the plot scale, and the watershed-level impacts of forest-snow interactions in canopy gaps are not well kno...

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) provides a framework for the collation of a set of consistent, multi-sector, multi-scale climate-impact simulations, based on scientifically and politically-relevant historical and future scenarios. This framework serves as a basis for robust projections of climate impacts, as well as...

Water management activities modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. Conventional understanding on the role of water management suggests that regulated river flow would be less sensitive to future climate conditions than natural flow in terms of the absolute changes in mean monthly flows. In this study t...

Closing the terrestrial water budget is necessary to provide consistent estimates of budget components for understanding water resources and changes over time. Given the lack of in situ observations of budget components at anything but local scale, merging information from multiple data sources (e.g., in situ observation, satellite remote sensing,...

A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and a massively parallel multiphysics reactive...

Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hy...

Hydrologic exchange is a crucial component of the water cycle. The strength of the exchange directly affects the biogeochemical and ecological processes that occur in the hyporheic zone and aquifer from micro to reach scales. Hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) can be quantified using many field measurement approaches, however, in a relatively large...