Thomas Stocker

Universität Bern | UniBe · Physics Institute

We present an age model for the 651 m deep Skytrain Ice Rise ice core. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the...

The transition from glacial to interglacial periods has been deeply studied, largely relying on the last deglaciation and its associated availability of a vast array of precisely dated high-resolution climate indicators. Its counterpart transition, glacial inception, has received much less attention, mostly due to the lack of a sufficient number of...

Specific components of the Earth system may abruptly change their state in response to gradual changes in forcing. This possibility has attracted great scientific interest in recent years, and has been recognized as one of the greatest threats associated with anthropogenic climate change. Examples of such components, called tipping elements, includ...

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 at convection-permitting scale is evaluated by means of several sensitivity simulations over southern Peru down to a grid resolution of 1 km, whereby the main focus is on the domain with 5 km horizontal resolution. Different configurations of microphysics, cumulus, lo...

Records of chemical impurities from ice cores enable us to reconstruct the past deposition of aerosols onto polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Through this they allow us to gain insight into changes of the source, transport and deposition processes that ultimately determine the deposition flux at the coring location. However, the low concentrati...

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic erup...

Proxy reconstructions from deep ocean sediments have helped to shape our understanding of the role of the global overturning circulation in past climate change. Neodymium (Nd) isotopes have contributed to this knowledge, as a tracer of past bottom water provenance and mixing. Here, we extend the implementation of Nd isotopes in the physical-biogeoc...

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 at convection-permitting scale is evaluated by means of several sensitivity simulations over southern Peru down to a grid resolution of 1 km, whereby the main focus is on the domain with 5 km horizontal resolution. Different configurations of microphysics, cumulus, lo...

Records of chemical impurities from ice cores enable us to reconstruct the past deposition of aerosols onto the polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Through that, they allow us to gain insight into changes of the source, transport and deposition processes that ultimately determine the deposition flux at the coreing location. However, the low conce...

Chromium (Cr) and its isotopes hold great promise as a tracer of past oxygenation and marine biological activity due to the contrasted chemical properties of its two main oxidation states, Cr(III) and Cr(VI), and the associated isotope fractionation during redox transformations. However, to date the marine Cr cycle remains poorly constrained due to...

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected in terms of their deposited sulfuric acid in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions...

Deglaciations are characterized by the largest natural changes in methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations of the past 800 000 years. Reconstructions of millennial-to centennial-scale variability within these periods are mostly restricted to the last deglaciation. In this study, we present composite records of CH4 and N2O concentrations...

Chromium (Cr) and its isotopes hold great promise as tracer of past oxygenation and marine biological activity due to the different chemical properties of its two main oxidation states, Cr(III) and Cr(VI), and the associated fractionation during redox transformations. However, to date the Cr cycle remains poorly constrained due to insufficient know...

Several sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 have been performed to find the optimal parameterization setup for precipitation amounts and patterns around Mount Kenya at a convection-permitting scale of 1 km. Hereby, the focus is on the cumulus scheme, with tests of the Kain–Fritsch, the Grell–F...

The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to freshwater perturbations critically depends on its mean state. Large swaths of icebergs melting in the North Atlantic during the last deglaciation constituted such perturbations and can, thus, provide important constraints on the stability of the AMOC. However, the mean AMOC...

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere is part of all emission scenarios of the IPCC that limit global warming to below 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate hysteresis characteristics in 4× pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios with exponentially increasing and decreasing CO2 using the Bern3D-LPX Earth system model of intermediat...

Using new and previously published CO2 data from the EPICA Dome C ice core (EDC), we reconstruct a new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (190 to 135 ka) the penultimate glacial period. Similar to the last glacial cycle, where high-resolution data already exists, our record shows that during longer North A...

Several sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 have been performed to find the optimal parameterization setup for precipitation amounts and patterns around Mount Kenya at a convection-permitting scale of 1 km. Hereby, the focus is on the cumulus scheme, with tests of the Kain-Fritsch, the Grell-F...

Paleoreconstructions and modern observations provide us with anomalies of surface temperature over the past millennium. The history of deep ocean temperatures is much less well-known and was simulated in a recent study for the past 2000 years under forced surface temperature anomalies and fixed ocean circulation. In this study, we simulate the past...

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition of seawater is a valuable tool for the reconstruction of past water mass provenance and hence deep water geometry. A meaningful interpretation of Nd isotope down‐core records requires knowledge of potential variations of water mass end member characteristics. While often assumed temporally constant, recent in...

The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to freshwater perturbations critically depends on its mean-state. Large swaths of icebergs melting in the North Atlantic during the last deglaciation constituted such perturbations, and thus can provide important constraints on the stability of the AMOC. Yet, the mean AMOC state...

Deglaciations are characterized by the largest natural changes in methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations of the past 800 thousand years. Reconstructions of millennial to centennial-scale variability within these periods are mostly restricted to the last deglaciation. In this study, we present composite records of CH4 and N2O concentra...

The last glacial period is characterized by a number of millennial climate events that have been identified in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and that are abrupt in Greenland climate records. The mechanisms governing this climate variability remain a puzzle that requires a precise synchronization of ice cores from the two hemispheres to be...

Paleoreconstructions and modern observations provide us with anomalies of surface temperature over the past millennium. The history of deep ocean temperatures is much less well-known and was simulated in a recent study for the past 2000 years under forced surface temperature anomalies. In this study, we simulate the past 800 years with an illustrat...

Abstract. The last glacial period is characterized by a number of abrupt climate events that have been identified in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. The mechanisms governing this climate variability remain a puzzle that requires a precise synchronization of ice cores from the two Hemispheres to be resolved. Previously, Greenland and Antarct...

An ocean sediment record reveals chaotic ocean circulation changes during warm climates

This study aims to provide a more detailed understanding of the behavior of 231Pa/230Th under varying ocean circulation regimes. The North Atlantic provides a unique sedimentary setting with its ice-rafted detritus (IRD) layers deposited during glacial times. These layers have been found north of 40° N (Ruddiman Belt) and are most pronounced during...

Understanding natural carbon cycle / climate feedbacks on various time scales is highly relevant to reliably predict future climate changes. During the last two glacial periods, climate variations on millennial time scales were observed but the 15 background conditions and duration of climate variations are different. Here we make use of contrastin...

Changes in the latitudinal position and strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHW) are thought to be tightly coupled to important climate processes, such as cross-equatorial heat fluxes, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the bipolar seesaw, Southern Ocean ventilation and atmospheric CO2 levels. However, many uncertaintie...

Numerical models are important tools for understanding the processes and feedbacks in the Earth system, including those involving changes in atmospheric CO2 (CO2,atm) concentrations. Here, we compile 55 published model studies (consisting of 778 individual simulations) that assess the impact of six forcing mechanisms on millennial-scale CO2,atm var...

The period 36–18 ka was a dynamic phase of the last glacial, with large climate shifts in both hemispheres. Through the bipolar seesaw, the Antarctic Isotope Maxima and Greenland DO events were part of a global concert of large scale climate changes. The interaction between atmospheric processes and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC...

A comprehensive understanding of the state and dynamics of the land cryosphere and associated sea level rise is not possible without taking into consideration the intrinsic timescales of the continental ice sheets. At the same time, the ice sheet mass balance is the result of seasonal variations in the meteorological conditions. Simulations of the...

Ice cores represent the only direct atmospheric archive to reconstruct past CO2 atmospheric levels by analysing ancient air trapped in bubbles in the ice. While CO2 concentrations have been documented over the last 800,000 years (800 ka), insufficient resolution in many intervals precludes uncovering fine structure on the sub-millenial scale (Lüthi...

In March 2019, German-speaking scientists and scholars calling themselves Scientists for Future, published a statement in support of the youth protesters in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland (Fridays for Future, Klimastreik/Climate Strike), verifying the scientific evidence that the youth protestors refer to. In this article, they provide the full...

A comprehensive understanding of the state and dynamics of the land cryosphere and associated sea level rise is not possible without taking into consideration the intrinsic time scales of the continental ice sheets. At the same time, the ice sheet mass balance is the result of seasonal variations in the meteorological conditions. Simulations of the...

Understanding the behavior of the Greenland ice sheet in a warmer climate, and particularly its surface mass balance (SMB), is important for assessing Greenland's potential contribution to future sea level rise. The Eemian interglacial period, the most recent warmer-than-present period in Earth's history approximately 125000 years ago, provides an...

Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region, as they are responsible for a significant part of the rainfall and extreme wind and/or precipitation-induced hazards. The analysis is based on a seamless transient simulation with a state-of-the-art fully coupled Earth system model...

In the version of this Review Article originally published, ref. 10 was mistakenly cited instead of ref. 107 at the end of the sentence: “This complexity of residual ice cover makes it likely that HTM warming was regional, rather than global, and its peak warmth thus had different timing in different locations.” In addition, for ref. 108, Scientifi...

Understanding the behavior of the Greenland ice sheet in a warmer climate, and particularly its surface mass balance (SMB), is important for assessing Greenland’s potential contribution to future sea level rise. The Eemian interglacial, the most recent warmer-than-present period in Earth’s history approximately 125000 years ago, provides an analogu...

Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over...

Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region, as they are responsible for a significant part of the rainfall and extreme wind and/or precipitation-induced hazards. Here, we use a seamless transient simulation with a state-of-the-art fully-coupled Earth System Model from 850 to...

Stable, steady climate states on an Earth-size planet with no continents are determined as a function of the tilt of the planet's rotation axis (obliquity) and stellar irradiance. Using a general circulation model of the atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean and a thermodynamic sea ice model, two states, the Aquaplanet and the Cryoplanet, are found fo...

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the...

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO2 and climate, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio betw...

The last interglacial, also known as the Eemian, is characterized by warmer than present conditions at high latitudes. This is implied by various Eemian proxy records as well as by climate model simulations, though the models mostly underestimate the warming with respect to proxies. Simulations of Eemian surface air temperatures (SAT) in the Northe...

The current understanding of preindustrial stratospheric age of air (AoA), its variability, and the potential natural forcing imprint on AoA is very limited. Here we assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcings on AoA using ensemble simulations for the period 1600 to 2100 and sensitivity simulations for different forcings. The results...

IceBern2D is a vertically integrated ice sheet model to investigate the ice distribution on long timescales under different climatic conditions. It is forced by simulated fields of surface temperature and precipitation of the Last Glacial Maximum and present-day climate from a comprehensive climate model. This constant forcing is adjusted to change...

Because the total air content (TAC) of polar ice is directly affected by the atmospheric pressure, its record in polar ice cores was considered as a proxy for past ice sheet elevation changes. However the Antarctic ice core TAC record is known to also contain an insolation signature, although the underlying physical mechanisms are still a matter of...

Under the protocols of phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive...

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactiv...

High-precision ice core data on both atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their carbon isotopic composition (δ13Catm) provide improved constraints on the marine and terrestrial processes responsible for carbon cycle changes during the last two interglacials and the preceding glacial/interglacial transitions.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, h...

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC). The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simula...

The EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core has allowed for the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the last 800,000 years. Here, we revisit the oldest part of the EDC CO2 record using different air extraction methods and sections of the core. For our established cracker system, we found an analytical artifact, which increases over the deepest...

Determining the expected age at a potential ice-core drilling site on a polar ice sheet generally depends on a combination of information from remote-sensing methods, estimates of current accumulation and modelling. This poses irreducible uncertainties in retrieving an undisturbed ice core of the desired age. Although recently perfected radar techn...

Greenland precipitation and its relationship to the synoptic forcing has been studied for the last interglacial period (i.e. the Eemian) using a set of global climate simulations. We distinguish between precipitation changes due to the Eemian orbital forcing and responses to modifications in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) topography. Precipitation...

Voluntary work alone cannot sustain the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Thomas F.