Thomas Andrew Reichert

• PhD, MD
• Managing Director at entropy research institute

We derived a closed-form solution to the original epidemic equations formulated by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 (1). The complete solution is validated using independently measured mobility data and accurate predictions of COVID-19 case dynamics in multiple countries. It replicates the observed phenomenology, quantitates pandemic dynamics, and pr...

Susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) models are widely used for estimating the dynamics of epidemics. Such models project that containment measures flatten the curve, i.e., reduce but delay the peak in daily infections, cause a longer epidemic, and increase the death toll. These projections have entered common understanding; individuals and gover...

Objective. Using a pandemic influenza model modified for COVID-19, this study investigated the degree of control over pre-symptomatic transmission that common non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) would require to reduce the spread in long-term care facilities. Methods. We created a stochastic compartmental SEIR model with Poisson-distributed tra...

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Aust...

In the US, national, regional and even institutional plans for ameliorating the effects of pandemic influenza focus on stockpiling antiviral medications, early production and distribution of vaccine, mass and personal social distancing, and a number of personal hygiene activities. Essential personnel are the first scheduled to receive preventive an...

A pandemic novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus has emerged. Most recently the World Health Organization has announced that in a country-dependent fashion, up to 15% of cases may require hospitalization, often including respiratory support. It is now clear that healthy children and young adults are disproportionately affected, most unusually amo...

Supplementary Data on HA sequences. Each HA sequence is labeled, together with the year of origin and the accession number

Data underlying Figure 1. The data used to construct Figure is tabulated. In addition, the file includes data from the United States

It is widely believed that protecting health care facilities against outbreaks of pandemic influenza requires pharmaceutical resources such as antivirals and vaccines. However, early in a pandemic, vaccines will not likely be available and antivirals will probably be of limited supply. The containment of pandemic influenza within acute-care hospita...

In the past decade, avian influenza has made several incursions of increasing scope and virulence into humans. The likelihood of another pandemic is increasing with time. In work recently published, influenza was found to be the principal cause of the increase in mortality in the United States during the winter months. In a companion report, the U....

In reply We disagree with Thompson and colleagues’ assertion that our trends study¹ is less robust compared with cohort studies. The strength of our approach is that, unlike cohort studies, we analyzed all deaths in the total elderly US population and are free of the biases to which cohort studies are subject. The comments by Thompson et al are sur...

Observational studies report that influenza vaccination reduces winter mortality risk from any cause by 50% among the elderly. Influenza vaccination coverage among elderly persons (> or =65 years) in the United States increased from between 15% and 20% before 1980 to 65% in 2001. Unexpectedly, estimates of influenza-related mortality in this age gr...

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In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes. The authors isolated the seasonal compone...

Although elderly influenza vaccination coverage increased from ∼15% to ∼65% during 1980–1999 in the US, estimates of influenza-related mortality also increased during this period. We examined these apparently conflicting findings by adjusting mortality estimates for aging within the elderly and the incidence of influenza A (H3N2) virus circulation....

The 1968 influenza A(H3N2) “Hong Kong” pandemic in the United States was characterized by recycling of the H3 antigen, which reemerged after 77 years of absence. Sero-archaeological studies conducted on blood samples, collected in early 1968, demonstrated that the majority of the very elderly had H3 antibodies prior to the time they were exposed to...

In 1970, vaccination of the schoolchildren of the town of Tecumseh, MI, against influenza was shown to protect not only the children of the town, but all of its citizens from influenza-derived illness. Subsequently, models suggested that not only illness, but hospitalizations and mortality might be reduced as well. However, influenza control progra...

In two papers at this conference, we showed influenza to be the cause of ∼70% of seasonal variation in human mortality. Seasonal mortality, therefore, is a surrogate for the force of influenza infection. We asked whether there might be a geographical pattern. Methods: Monthly all-cause mortality data were collected for 37 countries for 1962–1965, 1...

Background: In economically developed countries, the pattern of mortality attributable to major disease classes appears similar in shape to the excess mortality attributed to pneumonia and influenza. We asked to what extent influenza activity is correlated with seasonality of all mortality. Methods: Monthly mortality, for all-causes and five diseas...

Background: An important consequence of influenza epidemics is increased mortality in elderly persons and those with high-risk conditions. Most developed countries have focused on vaccination of this group. In Japan, the control of influenza centered on the vaccination of schoolchildren. From 1962 to 1987, most Japanese schoolchildren received infl...

Influenza epidemics lead to increased mortality, principally among elderly persons and others at high risk, and in most developed countries, influenza-control efforts focus on the vaccination of this group. Japan, however, once based its policy for the control of influenza on the vaccination of schoolchildren. From 1962 to 1987, most Japanese schoo...

It is widely believed that multiple sclerosis is a T-cell mediated autoimmune disease associated with abnormalities in immunoregulation. This large, prospective study evaluated the lymphocyte immunophenotypic profile of 246 MS patients, divided clinically into a remitting/relapsing group (n = 176) and a progressive group (n = 70), and compared thei...

A reference range for lymphocyte populations, with particular emphasis on T lymphocyte subsets, was obtained for normal individuals covering age cohorts from birth through adulthood. This report confirms and extends findings from a developmental reference range published earlier (1). Absolute numbers of WBC, lymphocytes, and T, B, and NK subsets de...

We report here the distributions of lymphocyte populations bearing the following antigens: CD3 (T cells), CD19 (B cells), CD4 (T helper/inducer cells), CD8 (T suppressor/cytotoxic and some NK cells), and CD3-, CD16+, and/or CD56+ (NK cells). At four sites, analyses were performed on healthy, normal subjects between the ages of 18 and 70, using iden...

The efficacy of murine monoclonal IgG1 antibody 2A3 specific for the 55 kD chain of the human IL-2 receptor (CD25) was evaluated for prophylaxis of acute GVHD in patients with advanced leukemia transplanted with unmodified bone marrow from related HLA-haploidentical donors incompatible for two or three HLA loci of the nonshared haplotype. As GVHD p...

A murine IgG1 antibody specific for the IL-2-binding site on the human lymphocyte IL-2 receptor beta chain (CD25) was evaluated in 11 patients who developed acute graft-versus-host disease following allogeneic marrow transplantation. All patients had received cyclosporine and methotrexate for prophylaxis of GVHD, either alone (4 cases), or in combi...

A pilot study was performed to explore the clinical potential of Leu2a antibody in reversing acute renal allograft rejection. Anti-Leu2a, a murine IgGi monoclonal antibody (mlgGi mAb), is specific for the CD8 molecule that is expressed in high density on class I reactive T cells. Of the 6 recipients treated with anti-Leu2a, two responded with a com...

Accurate distinction between essential thrombocythemia and thrombocytotic polycythemia vera requires determination of the red cell mass in the presence of adequate iron stores, but this is not always possible. We therefore compared the clinical and laboratory features at the time of presentation of 50 patients with unequivocal essential thrombocyth...

We evaluate the usefulness of limiting dilution culture methods in assessing the extent of T lymphocyte depletion from bone marrow inocula, prior to transplant, using either ex vivo antibody/complement-mediated depletion or immunotoxin treatment. Complement-mediated depletion using anti-Leu-1 antibody was shown to result in a consistent decline of...

Four member institutions of the Southeastern Cancer Study Group (SECSG) investigated 27 cases of malignant lymphoma proved to be of T-cell origin by a frozen section immunoperoxidase technique. The specimens were sent to one central laboratory in Michel's transport medium, where phenotyping studies were performed with a large number of monoclonal a...

Four member institutions of the Southeastern Cancer Study Group (SECSG) investigated 27 cases of malignant lymphoma proved to be of T-cell origin by a frozen section immunoperoxidase technique. The specimens were sent to one central laboratory in Michel's transport medium, where phenotyping studies were performed with a large number of monoclonal a...

Multiple regression models have wide applicability in predicting the outcome of patients with a variety of diseases. However, many researchers are using such models without validating the necessary assumptions. All too frequently, researchers also "overfit" the data by developing models using too many predictor variables and insufficient sample siz...

In the development of clinical experience, certain factors come to be associated empirically with an extreme prognosis (for example, very long or very short survival). This clinical impression can be quantitated by examining the capacity such factors have to separate the patient population into two or more sub-groups each with a distinct and differ...

First described by the remarkable English physician, Thomas Hodgkin, in 1832 as a “morbid appearance of the absorbent glands and spleen,” Hodgkin’s disease has defied attempts to define its cause and to identify the malignant cell even while great strides have been made in its management. Paradoxically, our understanding of the natural history of t...

The non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas (NHL) are a heterogeneous group of neoplastic diseases arising as clonal proliferations of lymphoid cells usually within lymph nodes but often arising in extranodal sites. The heterogeneity of these diseases has confounded taxonomists, and classification systems based on completely different aspects of these diseases hav...

Some experimental studies of subthreshold summation between sinusoidal grating components have been interpreted as showing very narrow channel bandwidths in human visions. This paper discusses an alternative interpretation of these experiments based on consideration of probability-summation effects among spatially distributed detectors. We conclude...

Subjects judged the contrast of sinewave and narrow-bandwidth random gratings. The apparent contrast of gratings formed by summing two component gratings widely separated in frequency is independent of the relative phase of the component gratings and is equal to a linear sum of the subjective contrasts of the components when presented separately. A...

A noninvasive fetal ECG detection method is described. Three linearly independent thoracic signals orthogonalized by the Gram-Schmidt procedure are generated together with the proper coefficients for which to represent the abdominal ECG. This expansion is used in the cancellation of the maternal portion of the abdominal ECG. The method is suitable...

A general technique for the realtime extraction of a physiological signal in the presence of well-characterized noise is described using a noninvasive fetal ECG detection system as an example application. In this application, three linearly independent, maternal thoracic ECG signals are transformed into three near-orthogonal functions which are the...

Features which are ambiguous or irrelevant for some samples contained in a data array are troublesome to all forms of multivariate analysis. Heretofore, feature redefinition and or excision of subsets of the data array have been the only recourse for the analyst. Those datasets for which these procedures have not been available have often been esse...

Amino acid sequences are often said to code for proteins. Taking that statement literally, we propose a methodology in which protein sequences appear as messages and as such are amenable to the techniques of signal analysis. Not only does this view of amino acid sequences as messages appear to be tenable, but the clarity of expression of these sequ...

The magneto-caloric effect has been determined over the temperature range from 0.4 K to 1.7 K with applied magnetic field up to 20 kG. Correlation of the variation of (∂T/∂H)S with the transition boundaries have been determined and evidence that the adiabats do not cross the spin flopped to paramagnetic boundary tagentially is discussed. Results su...

Subjects adjusted the contrast of a computer-generated test grating until it appeared to have the same overall contrast as a 6.25-c/deg grating of fixed contrast. Results show that the relative phase of the components of a compound test grating does not affect the perceived contrast of the grating. This suggests that independent mechanisms may proc...

A method is described herein for discovering the optimal correspondence of a pair of code sequences under generalized quality measures. The limits of both this algorithm and that of Needleman and Wunsch are presented.

Psychophysical experiments were performed to determine the spatial-frequency-response characteristics of contrast detection channels in the human visual system. The response characteristics, as a function of displacement from the channel center frequency, are shown to be independent of center frequency in the range 5-20 c/deg. The channel bandwidth...

The major outlines of an exhaustive algorithm which discovers the optimal correspondence of a pair of code strings from a pre-specified alphabet is presented. The measure of the quality of correspondence is the information required to effect the mutations indicated by the correspondence. This formulation is shown to lead naturally to expressions fo...

An information-based methodology for determining the quality of an alignment of two code sequences is presented. The assumptions involved in the procedure are as follows, (i) The information required to effect the alignment is separable into three categories: location, type and operation detail. The information basis of all three categories must be...

Physiological constraints and mathematical properties of the Fourier transform imply that frequency-selective channels in the visual system must have nonzero bandwidth. Existing experimental results for aperiodic patterns, interpreted in light of a multiple-channel model, indicate not only that nonzero bandwidths must be used in such a model, but a...

The concepts of a super information source and ensemble averaging are used to estimate the amount of information stored in protein andt-RNA sequences. Specifically applied to cytochrome c and hemoglobins, information measures analogous to those found to be highly significant for DNA pair frequency data (D 2 vs.R) by Gatlin (1968) prove to be extrem...

Over 400 trees of Abies lasiocarpa from fifty localities covering its entire range have been examined for composition of the cortical monoterpenes. The existence of two chemical variants was demonstrated. One of these was distributed predominantly in the areas closer to the Pacific coast, and contained turpentine with large amounts of β-pinene and...

Thesis (Ph. D. in Chemistry)--University of California, Berkeley, Sept. 1968. Includes bibliographical references.

The heat capacity and magnetic moment of a 3.934‐cm‐diam spherical single crystal of MnCl2⋅4H2O have been measured over the range 0.4°–4.2°K, with stabilized magnetic fields of 0, 5, 7.5, 10, 14, 18, 25, 40, 65, and 90 kG, along the c crystallographic axis. At the lower temperatures, magnetic saturation was attained at 90 and 65 kG. The temperature...

Oleoresins from Torrey Pine (Pinus torreyana Parry from Santa Rosa Island and Torrey Pines State Reserve near Del Mar, California, have been analyzed by gas-liquid chromatography. In each of the two populations the turpentine composition was found to be remarkably similar between individuals. The content of β-phellandrene and limonene differentiate...