Thomas Pregger

• Dr.-Ing.
• German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is among the hardest challenges in transforming energy systems to zero emissions. Transport energy demands are driven by an interplay of social behavioral, technical factors, political decisions and economic conditions, motivating detailed transport demand modeling. In Germany, transport ene...

The transport sector is at the center of discussions on accelerating the energy transition due to its still increasing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; therefore, the EU has set binding targets for the use of renewable energy in transport through the Renewable Energy Directive. To analyze the economic impact of these targets, we...

Green hydrogen and synthetic fuels are increasingly recognized as a key strategic element for the progress of the global energy transition. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with its large wind and solar potential, is well positioned to generate renewable energy at low cost for the production of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels, and...

The transport sector is at the center of discussions on accelerating the energy transition due to its still increasing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; therefore, the EU has set binding targets for the use of renewable energy in transport through the Renewable Energy Directive. To analyze the economic impact of these targets, we...

This study presents a novel energy system modelling approach for the analysis and comparison of global energy transition pathways for the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The results of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Teske/DLR scenarios are each reproduced. Additionally, five new energy transition tra-jectories, called LUT...

This chapter summarizes all the calculated energy demands for the industry, service, transport, and building sectors. The supply side results for the OECM 1.5 °C scenario are documented. Electricity generation and the power generation required globally are provided by technology, together with the corresponding renewable and fossil energy shares. A...

Plain Language Summary Here a net‐zero‐2050 Germany is envisioned by combining analysis from an energy‐system model with insights into approaches that allow for a higher carbon circularity in the German system, and first results from assessments of national carbon dioxide removal potentials. A back‐casting perspective is applied on how net‐zero Ger...

In which way, and in which sectors, will renewable energy be integrated in the German Energy System by 2030, 2040, and 2050? How can the resulting energy system be characterised following a −95% greenhouse gas emission reduction scenario? Which role will hydrogen play? To address these research questions, techno-economic energy system modelling was...

We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy s...

ere a net-zero-2050 Germany is envisioned by combining analysis from an energy-system model with insights into approaches that allow for a higher carbon circularity in the German system, and first results from assessments of national carbon dioxide removal potentials. A back-casting perspective is applied on how net-zero Germany could look like in...

Research on 100% renewable energy systems is a relatively recent phenomenon. It was initiated in the mid-1970s, catalyzed by skyrocketing oil prices. Since the mid-2000s, it has quickly evolved into a prominent research field encompassing an expansive and growing number of research groups and organizations across the world. The main conclusion of m...

This section summarizes the main findings of all parts of the research, with priority given to the most important findings to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. The key findings for the industry, services, buildings, and transport sectors, including the 12 sub-sectors analyzed, are provided and discussed. Policy recommendations for each sec...

Background information is given on the Paris Climate Agreement and the role of nationally determined contributions and net-zero pledges. An overview of historical energy-related CO 2 emissions since 1750 and how they relate to economic development, measured in gross domestic product (GDP), is provided, together with the cumulative energy-related CO...

This section focuses on technologies that provide heat, and especially process heat, with renewable energy and electrical systems. All the technologies described, except those that use high-temperature geothermal or concentrated solar heat (CSH) for process heat, are used for the OECM 1.5 °C pathways described in Chaps. 5 , 6 , 7 , and 8 . The auth...

Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (around 645 Mt CO2), reducing (around 50 Mt CO2) and removing (around 60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions....

This open access book is designed as a continuation of the editor's 2019 book Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. This volume provides an in-depth analysis of industry sectors globally, and its purpose is to present emission reduction targets in 5-year steps (2025 to 2050) for the main twelve finance sectors per the Global Industry Classif...

Das vorliegende Energieszenario zeigt einen beispielhaften Pfad der Umstellung auf neue Energieversorgungstechnologien, um ein für Deutschland verbleibendes CO2-Budget von weniger als 7 Gigatonnen einzuhalten. Um das zu schaffen, müssen die CO2-Emissionen aus dem Energiesystem bereits bis 2030 gegenüber heute halbiert werden. Dazu müssen alle Verbr...

Der Szenarienvergleich zeigt die Bandbreite des erwarteten bzw. unter getroffenen Annahmen ermittelten zukünftigen Wasserstoffbedarfs für Deutschland. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in den meisten Studien grüner Wasserstoff als notwendiger Baustein der Klimaneutralität gesehen wird, hierbei insbesondere für die Sektorenkopplung. Bereits bis 2030 wird...

This article systematically compares 26 different scenarios of climate-friendly energy systems, aiming at a reduction of CO2 emissions of at least 90% for Germany in 2050. Technical strategies in terms of technology or energy carrier mixes in the end-use sectors industry, buildings, and transport as well as in the conversion sectors are examined. I...

In order to transform the energy supply completely to renewable sources, energy carriers such as hydrogen and synthetic methane that can be stored on a large scale will be needed in the future. In net-zero-2050, these must be generated from renewable electricity. This graph shows calculated results of the energy scenario for the potential demand of...

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid sc...

The comprehensive evaluation of strategies for decarbonizing large‐scale energy systems requires insights from many different perspectives. In energy systems analysis, optimization models are widely used for this purpose. However, they are limited in incorporating all crucial aspects of such a complex system to be sustainably transformed. Hence, th...

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps t...

Background Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specifi...

In the course of the transformation to a greenhouse gas-neutral society in the second half of the 21st century, the use of synthetic energy carriers based on renewable electricity or biomass is under discussion. This project evaluates the environmental impacts of technical and logistical options for the generation of such energy carriers on the bas...

In the course of the transformation to a greenhouse gas neutral society in the second half of the 21st century, the use of synthetic energy carriers based on renewable electricity or biomass is discussed. This project evaluates the environmental impacts of technical and logistical options for the provision of such energy carriers based on environme...

Future energy-supply systems must become more flexible than they are today to accommodate the significant contributions expected from intermittent renewable power sources. Although numerous studies on planning flexibility options have emerged over the last few years, the uncertainties related to model-based studies have left the literature lacking...

Today, transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, new technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being further improved. This article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the development of drive-trains, resulting electricity and fuel consumption as well as emissions of...

Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transitions and that energy scenario construction should reflect this fact. This paper presents...

In the German project Traffic Development and the Environment an advanced model chain was built up that includes traffic models, fleet composition developments, new driving technologies, and emission factors in order to produce spatio-temporal emission distributions for use in atmospheric chemistry transport models. This novel model chain was first...

In the German project Traffic Development and the Environment an advanced model chain was built up that includes traffic models, fleet composition developments, new driving technologies, and emission factors in order to produce spatio-temporal emission distributions for use in atmospheric chemistry transport models. This novel model chain was first...

The project Net-Zero-2050, Cluster I of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative (HI-CAM) targets net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050 for Germany. Here it specifically focusses on quantifying carbon emissions from the energy system via an integrative scenario modeling project P1.2 Energy Scenario Quantification. Our approach advances and combines model...

Der vorliegende zweite Teil - Sektorenkopplung und Wasserstoff: Zwei Seiten der gleichen Medaille knüpft an diesem Punkt an. Er befasst sich detailliert mit möglichen Nutzungspfaden von Wasserstoff in den Sektoren Verkehr, Industrie und Wärme sowie mit dem systemisch wichtigen Aspekt der Rückverstromung. Am Beispiel aktueller Forschungsarbeiten im...

Im Projekt MuSeKo wird der kombinierte Einsatz unterschiedlicher Flexibilitäten und Sektorenkopplungen in einem künftigen Energiesystem mit einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energien modellbasiert untersucht. Die Analyse erfolgt mit einem zeitlich und räumlich aufgelösten, techno-ökonomischen Ansatz. Anhand dessen Ergebnissen werden unterschiedliche...

German: Im Projekt MuSeKo wird der kombinierte Einsatz unterschiedlicher Flexibilitäten und Sektorenkopplungen in einem künftigen Energiesystem mit einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energien modellbasiert untersucht. Die Analyse erfolgt mit einem zeitlich und räumlich aufgelösten, techno-ökonomischen Ansatz. Anhand dessen Ergebnissen werden unterschi...

The accelerated urbanization and industrialization in China is leading to major challenges due to rising energy demand and emissions. Cities in particular play an important role in the decision-making and implementation processes for the energy transition. However, they often have only limited local energy potential and are heavily dependent on sup...

Im Zuge der Transformation zu einer treibhausgasneutralen Gesellschaft in der zweiten Hälfte des 21. Jahrhunderts wird der Einsatz von synthetischen Energieträgern diskutiert, die auf erneuerbarem Strom oder Biomasse basieren. Dieses Vorhaben bewertet die Umweltwirkungen technischer und logistischer Optionen für die Bereitstellung solcher Energietr...

Until today, road transport is largely fossil fuel driven and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. In order to assess the impact of development pathways of future transport, new emission factors for emerging technologies and a shift in the assessment framework that extends the emissions to include electricity ge...

Synthetische Energieträger sollen in naher Zukunft Flugzeuge und Schiffe antreiben und Rohstoff für die chemische Industrie sein. Das ifeu hat mit DLR und JR in einem UBA-Vorhaben untersucht, ob ihre Herstellung der Umwelt schadet. Das Ergebnis: Richtig gemacht können sie zwar dem Klimaschutz nutzen, es besteht aber die Gefahr, dass Luft, Gewässer...

Background Many governments take the view that voluntary national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are sufficient to avoid negative climate effects. In the absence of independent verification, however, pledges are unlikely to be sufficient for a rapid and strong reduction of emissions. It is often claimed that a global carbon tax could be...

The Future Fuels project combines research in several institutes of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) on the production and use of synthetic fuels for space, energy, transportation, and aviation. This article gives an overview of the research questions considered and results achieved so far and also provides insight into the multidimensional and in...

Energy system models usually have different data structures and mathematical approaches and therefore arrive at different results that are mostly not directly comparable. This aspect has a high relevance with regard to model-based scenario analyses for future energy systems. In addition, the variable nature of wind and solar power and their intende...

The scenario analysis focuses on two metropolitan regions of eastern China which are characterized by high energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. Current policies are rather short-term driven and weak regarding sectoral coupling and regional integration. As in China economic activities and population on the one hand and renewable energy reso...

Ziel der Energiesystemanalyse ist es, technische, ökonomische und politische Entscheidungen im Energiesystem wissens- und informationsbasiert zu unterstützen. Die Energiesystemanalyse beschäftigt sich mit der künftigen Gestaltung des Energiesystems und nutzt Detailinformationen aus allen Bereichen des Energiesystems, um Zusammenhänge und Wechselwir...

The exploration and evaluation of strategies for decarbonizing the energy system is the subject of a series of national and international studies conducted by governmental, industrial and independent stakeholders. These studies play an important role in the energy policy debate on understanding and assessing different transformation paths of the en...

Grid expansion measures, Power-To-Gas and solar power imports are frequently discussed technological options for integrating renewable energies into the energy system. Since this poses enormous economic and social challenges for the development of energy supply infrastructures, potential benefits must be analyzed for a broad spectrum of possible fu...

https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030058425 This open access book is available here. It presents detailed pathways to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, globally and across ten geographical regions. Based on state-of-the-art scenario modelling, it provides the vital missing link between renewable energy targets and the measures needed to ac...

The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully transparent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies until 2050 are...

The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further research requirements are given for following topics: Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and lo...

With an expected accelerated urbanization process until 2050, China is facing big challenges of mitigating CO 2 emissions, especially in the eastern coastal metropolitan regions. Since cities are the hubs for innovation regarding new technologies and infrastructures, investments and governance, they are playing an important role in decision-making...

A detailed overview of the methodologies used to develop the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario presented in this book. Starting with the overall modelling approach, the interaction of seven different models is explained which are used to calculate and developed detailed scenarios for greenhouse gas emission and energy pathways to stay within a 2.0 °C and...

Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power se...

Die Integration großer Anteile dargebotsabhängiger, räumlich und zeitlich fluktuierender Energiequellen wird zunehmend zur Herausforderung für die Energiewirtschaft. Um fluktuierende erneuerbare Energien in das Versorgungssystem integrieren und gleichzeitig eine gleichbleibende Versorgungssicherheit gewährleisten zu können, sind weitgehende Anpassu...

This open access book presents detailed pathways to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, globally and across ten geographical regions. Based on state-of-the-art scenario modelling, it provides the vital missing link between renewable energy targets and the measures needed to achieve them. Bringing together the latest research in climate science,...

Until today road transport remains largely fossil fuel driven and therefore significantly contributes to emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, particularly nitrogen oxides and particulate matter (EEA 2015). On the other hand, new vehicle technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being improved regarding fuel efficiency and...

Accelerated urbanization and industrialization in China result in big challenges of increasing energy demand and emissions, especially in metropolitan regions. Regional focuses of the study are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region with 20% of national population, 30% of economic output and 24% of energy consumptio...

To meet the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by the end of this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable energy scenario (ADV). ADV reflects the trends in global energy systems and will decarbonize the entire energy system by 2050. Thos...

Accelerated urbanization and industrialization in China result in big challenges of increasing energy demand and emissions. Particularly cities play an important role in decision making and implementation processes in energy transition, but with their limited local energy potentials strongly depend on supply regions. This case study focusses on the...

Electric mobility is expected to play a key role in the decarbonisation of the energy system. Continued development of battery electric vehicles is fundamental to achieving major reductions in the consumption of fossil fuels and of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Hydrogen can become an important complementary synthetic fuel providing electri...

de Der vorliegende Beitrag skizziert einen möglichen zukünftigen Bedarf an erneuerbaren flüssigen Kraftstoffen, bewertet mögliche Prozessrouten zu deren Erzeugung im großen Maßstab unter Einsatz von erneuerbarem Strom, Biomasse und anderen Kohlenstoffquellen und diskutiert systemische Effekte eines entsprechenden Infrastrukturausbaus. Die in einer...

This talk introduces the RegMex project, which aims at improving the transparency and robustness of model-based energy system analysis. The project focuses on a transparent and comparable description of different energy system models, as well as the framework assumptions, scenarios and basic parameters. In order to achieve a higher comparability bo...

The Plan-DelyKaD project focused on an in-depth comparison of relevant electrolysis technologies, identified criteria for and selected most relevant salt cavern sites in Germany, studied business case potentials for applying hydrogen taken from storage to different end-users and engaged in identifying the future role of hydrogen from large scale st...

Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt Arbeiten vor, die im Rahmen der dreijährigen Helmholtz-Energieallianz Synthetische flüssige Kohlenwasserstoffe (SynKWS) – Speicher mit höchster Energiedichte durchgeführt wurden. Unter Einbezug technischer, prozessoptimierender und systemanalytischer Aspekte wurden ausgewählte Pfade für die Erzeugung von flüssigen, sy...

Variable renewable energy (VRE) resources increasingly add fluctuations to power systems. The required types and capacities of balancing measures, amounts of curtailment, and costs associated with system integration need to be assessed for advising policy makers and economic actors. Previous studies mostly exclude storage from model-endogenous capa...

The paper at hand presents the key findings of the three-year Helmholtz energy-alliance Synthetic Liquid Hydrocarbons – SynKWS (German: Kohlenwasserstoffe, KWS) – storage with highest energy density. Considering detailed technical aspects and applying process optimization and system analysis methods, this study analyses and assesses selected paths...

Long-term energy scenario studies conducted by the DLR energy systems analysis contributed to demonstrate opportunities, challenges and benefits of the German energy transition. This contribution reflects targets, current trends and selected pathways for a target-oriented expansion of renewable energy technologies and presents estimations of main e...

Model-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. T...

Der Elektromobilität kommt eine Schlüsselrolle bei der Energiewende zu. Eine erfolgreiche Marktentwicklung von Plug-in-Hybriden und Vollelektrofahrzeugen und eine langfristige Flottendurchdringung sind die effizienteste und wirksamste Option, erneuerbare Energien im bedeutenden Maße in den Verkehrssektor einzuführen und das Verbrauchsminderungsziel...

Hydrogen generation by electrolysis is expected to play an important role as a crosslinking technology between power generation on one hand and transport and industry on the other hand. When produced by water electrolysis from renewable energies - such as solar or wind - hydrogen can directly replace fossil fuels in transport and industry, thereby...

Überblick über die globalen Erneuerbare Energien-Szenarien und die Länderstudie für Japan

Ziel der Studie war es, potenzielle Einsatzbereiche und Infrastrukturen für eine künftige Nutzung von Wasserstoff in Baden-Württemberg zu identifizieren und die monetären sowie klimarelevanten Wirkungen darzustellen. Eine Kommerzialisierung ist voraussichtlich zuerst im Verkehrssektor möglich, weitere Marktpotenziale in der Erdgas- und Chemieindust...

The energy system model REMix has been developed and used for more than 10 years at the DLR Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics. Its initial focus was on renewable energy sources (RES) and the electricity system. By now, it is considering all relevant elements in the power system including interactions between the power system and the heating a...

Die derzeitigen Vorstellungen von möglichen Pfaden zur Transformation des Energiesystems basieren auf zahlreichen systemanalytischen Studien, die auch bei der Formulierung der politischen Ziele im Energiekonzept 2010 der Bundesregierung die wissenschaftliche Grundlage dargestellt haben. Gerade Szenarienstudien haben dabei bereits in den 90er Jahren...

The project focuses on a new update of the global Energy [R]evolution scenario, which was developed and published so far four times since 2006. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is a global energy scenario based on the assessment of energy demand and supply patterns and the renewable energy potentials available in ten world regions. The normative sc...

The paper describes the thematic and organizational approach of the DLR Transport Program’s research project “Transport and the Environment” (Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt, VEU). VEU clearly facilitates the interdisciplinary integration of research on mobility within the DLR and its partner institutes. A set of transport scenarios for Germany and...

This article describes the thematic and organizational approach of the DLR Transport Program’s research project “Transport and the Environment” (Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt, VEU). It illuminates the research approach, which employs scenario techniques to achieve a common understanding and a framework for the project. Establishing a platform for...

Angesichts des geplanten Ausstiegs aus der Kernenergie und einem weiter wachsenden Anteil erneuerbarer Energien mit zum Teil geringen Beiträgen zur gesicherten Erzeugungsleistung stellt sich die Frage, wie die Versorgungssicherheit in Deutschland und insbesondere in Süddeutschland aus heutiger Perspektive in den kommenden Jahren gewährleistet werde...

Der Beitrag zeigt, dass die Nutzung von elektrolytisch erzeugtem Wasserstoff Vorteile in Hinblick auf die Integration fluktuierender erneuerbarer Energien (fEE) in Stromver-sorgungssysteme bietet. Anhand modellbasierter Szenario-Analysen für die zukünftige Stromversorgung in Deutschland wurden im Rahmen des Projekts " PlanDelyKaD " die zwei Wassers...

The energy systems analysis group at the DLR develops long-term scenarios using target-oriented approaches. Comparing the present situation and targets for the future and taking into account potentials and costs of new technologies, economic, political and social realities, interests, and the resulting barriers or incentives results in largely cons...

Solar photovoltaic and wind power are increasingly contributing to electricity supply in Europe and worldwide. Due to their intermittent nature, questions of balancing power demand, system stability and the interconnection of electricity, heat and transport sector have become a major focus of energy system research. The bottom-up energy system mode...