Thomas Muthucattu Paul

• Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Gujarat University Ahmedabad India
• Former Professor of Economics and Finance at Papua New Guinea University of Technology

For Long term annual data between 1977 and 2020 for Papua New Guinea, there is long term cointegrat-ing relation between the consumer price inflation, the money supply, the Kina-US dollar exchange rates, and real GDP. The error-correcting model establishes that the consumer price inflation is Granger caused by the money supply , the kina-dollar exc...

Volatility of returns of the financial assets, and the volatility of the inflation and aggregate demand, are important issues in the Financial markets, and the macro- monetary economics. In this article, the volatility in the stock and bond markets are surveyed and discussed in detail. Our view is that the higher volatility in the long-term rates t...

This article examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry and the US subprime mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the price discovery, efficiency and the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger’s causality. We have used two...

By employing the statistical tools, the cointegration analysis and the adjustment matrices, the Vector error Correction models, it is established that there is a statistically significant long-run demand function for real narrow money in India. The sign of the coefficient of the real stock prices is positive and statistically significant corroborat...

For the sample period annual data between 1977 to 2020 ,for Papua new Guinea , there is a long-run relationship (cointegration) between the exports , the real GDP , the PGK/USD exchange rate , the variability of the exchange rate , the consumer prices , the imports , and the money supply .Most of the aforesaid relationships or the signs of the coef...

The Demand for Money, the Real Stock prices, the Real GDP, the interest rates, and the USD-INR exchange rate: An empirical study using Cointegration, and Vector Error- Correction (VECM) models for recent Indian data, and it’s Relevance to the present Indian monetary policy issues .

https://youtu.be/Gg22Vlb2H-Y?feature=shared

Review of Khandakar Qudrat-I Elahi’s Economics for Democracy in the 21st Century: A Critical Review of Definition and Scope. (Victoria, BC CA: Tellwell Talent. 2021). xxvii-357 pp. The book under review, according to author Elahi, undertakes an exploratory attempt to address the question of the definition and scope of “our subject - Economics”. The...

Volatility of returns of the financial assets, and the volatility of the inflation and aggregate demand, are important issues in the Financial markets, and the Macro- monetary economics. In this article, the conditional expected returns of the stocks and conditional volatility of returns- volatility persistence and different models of that- are giv...

We have tested the purchase power parity hypothesis using the consumer price index of USA and UK against Solomon Islands for the sample monthly period from January 1993 to December 2013. This paper uses cointegration and the error correction as methodologies as the data are found to be non-stationary. The result shows that the changes in Solomon Do...

: In the context of the internationalization of the universities , the author discusses his experiences and information that he gathered , while he was being employed as Professor in few universities spawning over four different continents in the world : India in Asia , Botswana in Africa , North Cyprus in Europe , and Fiji in Pacific Australia . H...

This article examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry and the US subprime mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the price discovery, efficiency and the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger’s causality. We have used two...

This paper examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry, and the US Sub-prime Mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger’s causality. We have used two indices: one for spot and the other...

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the exchange rates, international prices, and the demand shocks on inflation in Fiji. How the domestic inflation in a pegged exchange rate system is aligned with international price shocks is an important monetarist idea, and this is tested in this study. This study employs annual data fro...

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the exchange rates, international prices, and the demand shocks on inflation in Fiji Island . The study covers the annual data from 1975 to 2010.The variables are transformed into changes/per cent and then Ordinary Least Squares methodology (OLS) is used. The appropriateness of the OLS ass...

This article attempts to examine the integration and efficiency of the pacific country Fiji’s stock and foreign exchange markets. The study employed, Unit Root test, Cointegration and Error correction models, and the VEC Grangers causality test, using the daily data of FJ$/USD $, and Fiji’s market capitalization index (stock market), from 3rd Augus...

Capital Asset Pricing model (CAPM) is widely researched, tested , and paradoxically both generally accepted and rejected model of asset pricing. From its beginning (1964) it has occupied the pride of place among the financial economist's research, and still part of the text books on finance in the leading business schools all over the world. The st...

Capital Asset Pricing model (CAPM) is widely researched, tested, and paradoxically both generally accepted and rejected model of asset pricing. From its beginning (1964) it has occupied the pride of place among the financial economist’s research, and still part of the text books on finance in the leading business schools all over the world. The stu...

This article attempts to examine the integration and efficiency of the pacific country Fiji's stock and foreign exchange markets. The study employed, Unit Root test, Cointegration and Error correction models, and the VEC Grangers causality test, using the daily data of FJ$/US$, and Fiji's market capitalization index (stock market), from 3rd August...

academicians for decades.After the development of portfolio theory,once risk diversification is accompalished,the concept of the market risk and betas have enabled the academic community to estimate the parameters of risk and return.In this context the authors have applied the CAPM study for India .The study covers five companies listed on the Nati...

For the small open economy of Botswana the PPP theory is validated in both the absolute and relative version for the Pula-Dollar exchange rate during the sample period 1992 third quarter to 2002 fourth quarter. The Pula-Dollar exchange rate is determined by the long-term trends in Botswana's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the USA's CPI. The influen...

This article attempts to examine the integration and efficiency of Indian stock and foreign exchange markets. The study employed Time series ordinary least square regression, Unit Root test, Grangers causality test, Vector Auto Regression techniques on monthly data of stock return and exchange rate return for the period spanning from February 1995...

The Independent Commission on Banking and Financial Policy has produced an excellent report that puts the banking and financial policies of India under a microscope. The analysis is not always on the mark but the report needs to be studied and debated in detail.

The paper tests the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory in both its absolute and relative version for the Republic of South Africa (RSA), for the sample period from the second quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2003. The cointegration and error correction methodologies are employed in this paper as the data are found to be non-stationary. It...

This empirical study for the Republic of South Africa (RSA) indicates that there exists a strong long term relation between the RSA’s nominal rand/dollar exchange rate and the terms of trade. The study employs cointegration and error-correction methods. The error-correction model (ECM) shows that there is a strong causality from the terms of trade...

We have examined empirically two important economic relationships, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the money demand relationship, among the consumer prices, money, output, interest rates, and the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) for the sample period from 1993 second quarter to 2003 second quarter within...

This empirical study for the Republic of South Africa (RSA) indicates that there exists a strong long term relation between the RSA’s nominal rand/dollar exchange rate and the terms of trade. The study employs cointegration and error-correction methods. The error-correction model (ECM) shows that there is a strong causality from the terms of trade...

This Study examines the Inflation in major Asian Countries and impact of variables such as money supply and exchange rates . It uses the methodology of Vector Auto regression with auto correlations corrected . It has studied quarterly data for period 1972 to 1992 . For major larger economies such as India , Japan , and Pakistan the money supply is...

Using random simulations with artificial data with identical sample characteristics to the long-sample exchange rate data employed by Lothian and Taylor (Lothian, J.R. and Taylor, M.P. (1996). The recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries. Journal of Political Economy 104, 488–509.), we show that standard unit-root tests have extr...

This paper extends the empirical tests of real interest rates equality, by applying methods of co integration ,and error-correction models .We have examined the quarterly euro-deposit rates adjusted for 5 major European and Japan , and the USA for the period 1984- to 1995 quarterly data .

This paper seeks to examine empirically whether foreign banks on an average operate with greater efficiency and so attain higher levels of productivity and profitability. For this purpose, first, a stochastic frontier production function for the banking industry is estimated and bank-wise technical efficiency is computed. In the second stage, the a...

It is generally pointed out that the forecasting performance of the structural models of the exchange-rate determination is poorer than that of the native Random-walk models. Among the most influential of the empirical studies of exchange-rate forecasting models were those performed by Meese and Rogoff (1983 a, 1983 b, 1985) (M - R) who found that...

This study demonstrates that the productivity of real money balances is small in two developing countries (India and Pakistan), using a methodology due to Startz (1984).

This study throws light on the importance of adjustment lags, variability of inflation, changes in real income, etc. in the empirical estimation of Fisher hypothesis. Variability of inflation has a significant negative impact on both short- and long-term interest rates in a developing economy like India. The ‘Philips Curve Effect’ has not been oper...

This study deals with Bazaar Bill Rates , Call Money Rates , and Debenture yields on the one side and the price levels , and inflationary expectation as explanatory variables .The direct relation between price level and interest rates might be due to income effects . But the effect of Inflationary effect on interest rates is Fisher effect . This st...

An attempt is being made to explain how far inflation contributes to or inhibits economic growth of developing countries .This is examined under the context of gently rising prices in Kaldor - Joan Robinson model , and Lewis Growth model for developing countries .