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Does communication influence trust in the central bank? We examine this question using survey data covering 488,000 Eurozone citizens from 1999 to 2019. We find compelling evidence that more communication, as measured by the number of speeches made by representatives of the Eurosystem, negatively impacts citizens' trust in the ECB. This holds for s...
We demonstrate how the precision of public and private information can be measured and their welfare implications can be assessed. To this end, we develop and apply a procedure to test welfare results from a beauty and nonbeauty contest model based on survey forecasts of interest rates in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In m...
We analyze the economic impact of central banks sensed by business executives in a sample of 61 countries from 1998 to 2016. Based on a survey conducted by the Institute for Management Development (IMD), we find compelling evidence that intensive central bank communication, as measured by the quantity of speeches, worsens the perceived impact. Duri...
Even when all past and present information is known, individuals usually remain uncertain about the permanence of observed variables. After reviewing the history and role of adaptive expectations and its statistical foundations in modeling this permanent-transitory confusion, the paper investigates the consequences of this confusion for tests of ma...