Thomas Kastner

• Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre

Global land systems are increasingly shaped by international trade of agricultural products. An increasing number of studies have quantified the implications of agricultural trade for single different aspects of land system sustainability. Bringing together studies across different sustainability dimensions, this review investigates how global agri...

Land use has greatly transformed Earth’s surface. While spatial reconstructions of how the extent of land cover and land‐use types have changed during the last century are available, much less information exists about changes in land‐use intensity. In particular, global reconstructions that consistently cover land‐use intensity across land‐use type...

Global forest loss impacts climate, biodiversity and sustainable development goals. Deforestation footprinting attributes forest loss to commodity production and consumption, identifying global trends, drivers and hot spots to inform zero-deforestation policies. In this Review, we provide an overview of global deforestation footprinting approaches...

Understanding and acting on biodiversity loss requires robust tools linking biodiversity impacts to land use change, the biggest threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Here we estimate agriculture’s impact on the Brazilian Cerrado’s biodiversity using three approaches—countryside Species-Area Relationship, Species Threat Abatement and Restoration and...

The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate...

Many key feed commodities used in livestock and aquaculture production are highly traded in global agricultural markets. The dependence on these imported inputs may create vulnerabilities for importing countries when disturbances in global trade flows occur. Replacing feed imports with domestic food system byproducts—i.e. secondary products from cr...

Governments across the world are increasingly seeking to ensure that the products consumed in their countries meet certain sustainability standards. However, the places of production—where major impacts occur—are often distant from the places of consumption. Physical trade models are suited to estimate the link between consumption and production im...

Driven by a growing and more affluent population, changing diets and lifestyles, the demand for livestock products is expected to surge in the next decades. Satisfying this demand will result in additional pressures on land systems. The increasingly globalized supply chains of the livestock economy will further decouple many of these impacts from t...

Understanding and acting on biodiversity loss requires robust assessment tools that link biodiversity impacts to land use (LU) change. Here we estimate agriculture’s impact on biodiversity using three approaches —countryside-Species Area Relationship (cSAR), Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) and Species Habitat Index (SHI)— for the Br...

Nature's contributions to people (NCP) are essential for the production and trade of agricultural, forestry and fishery commodities. Often, there is a spatial disconnect between consumers and the natural systems where the commodities are produced. Traded agricultural products are therefore dependent on nature and NCP in their region of origin. The...

Reducing food waste could lower pressures on land resources and thereby contribute to the mitigation of global biodiversity loss. The reduction of food waste and biodiversity loss are also specified in the Sustainable Development Goals 12.3 and 15 of the United Nations. However, which supply chain stages and food products to target with policy meas...

This dataset includes data on the embodied human appropriation of net primary production (eHANPP) associated with products derived from agriculture and forestry. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is an indicator of changes in the yearly availability of biomass energy from photosynthesis that remains available in terrestrial...

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) is a key action in delivering post-2020 biodiversity targets. PAs often need to meet multiple objectives, ranging from biodiversity protection to ecosystem service provision and climate change mitigation, but available land and conservation funding is limited. Therefore, optimizing resources by sel...

Food systems are the largest users of land and water resources worldwide. Using a multi-model approach to track food through the global trade network, we calculated the land footprint (LF) and water footprint (WF) of food consumption in the European Union (EU). We estimated the EU LF as 140–222 Mha yr⁻¹ and WF as 569–918 km³ yr⁻¹. These amounts are...

Chicken meat production in the European Union (EU) causes environmental pressures within and beyond the EU, mostly due to feed consumption. The expected dietary shift from red to poultry meat will drive changes in the demand for chicken feeds and the associated environmental impacts, calling for a renewed attention on this supply chain. By performi...

Global agricultural trade creates multiple telecoupled flows of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The flows of physical and virtual nutrients along with trade have discrepant effects on natural resources in different countries. However, existing literature has not quantified or analyzed such effects yet. Here we quantified the physical and virtual N...

Leisure travel within the European Union (EU) contributes significantly to the carbon footprint of global tourism. Distance travelled is a main factor in this impact, but some of its determinants remain unexplored. We examined the role of tourists' holiday preferences in shaping the carbon footprint of leisure travel within the EU by calculating de...

In our globalized world, local impacts of agricultural production are increasingly driven by consumption in geographically distant places. Current agricultural systems strongly rely on nitrogen (N) fertilization to increase soil fertility and crop yields. Yet, a large portion of N added to cropland is lost through leaching / runoff potentially lead...

The continued loss of unfragmented intact forest landscapes (IFLs) despite numerous global conservation initiatives indicates the need for improved knowledge of proximate and underlying drivers. Yet the role of non-agricultural activities in forest degradation and fragmentation has not received adequate attention. We focus on IFL loss caused by var...

Incoming policies will cause the European Union to harvest more wood, shift one-fifth of cropland to bioenergy and outsource deforestation, analysis shows. Incoming policies will cause the European Union to harvest more wood, shift one-fifth of cropland to bioenergy and outsource deforestation, analysis shows. Credit: Gustavo Basso/NurPhoto via Get...

With ongoing global urbanization processes and consumption patterns increasingly recognized as key determinants of environmental change, a better understanding of the links between urban consumption and biodiversity loss is paramount. Here we quantify the global biodiversity footprint (BDF) of Vienna's (Austria) biomass consumption. We present a st...

Reaching healthy and sustainable diets for all people with the world's limited resources is one of the biggest challenges of humanity. The Healthy Reference Diet (HRD) is a recent proposal by the Eat-Lancet Commission for addressing this problem. Mexico has a high burden of obesity and persistent malnutrition. Recent national policies have focused...

The global livestock system puts increasing pressures on ecosystems. Studies analyzing the ecological impacts of livestock supply chains often explain this pressure by the increasing demand for animal products. Food regime theory proposes a more nuanced perspective: it explains livestock-related pressures on ecosystems by systemic changes along the...

Background The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are pr...

Agricultural expansion and intensification are threatening biodiversity worldwide, and future expansion of agricultural land will exacerbate this trend. One of the main drivers of this expansion is an increasingly global trade of agricultural produce. National and international assessments tracking the impact of agriculture on biodiversity thus nee...

"10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science”, ranging from climate stress for forests to the corona virus that has jumped from animals to humans, are now published for the first time. More than 45 experts from the German Leibniz Research Network Biodiversity and colleagues have compiled this inventory on the preservation of nature as the basis of huma...

Uns Autorinnen und Autoren geht es darum Wissen zu vermitteln. Wissen um Wandel, um politisches und gesellschaftliches Handeln für einen gesunden Planeten, den Erhalt und die nachhaltige Nutzung der Biodiversität zu unterstützen. Wissenschaft und Forschung zur Begleitung eines komplexen und systemaren Prozess wird angeboten. For us as contributors...

The establishment and maintenance of protected areas (PAs) is viewed as a key action in delivering post-2020 biodiversity targets. PAs often need to meet a multitude of objectives, ranging from biodiversity protection to ecosystem service provision and climate change mitigation. As available land and conservation funding are limited, optimizing res...

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global acc...

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global acc...

National and local governments need to step up efforts to effectively implement the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity to halt and reverse worsening biodiversity trends. Drawing on recent advances in interdisciplinary biodiversity science, we propose a framework for improved implementation by national...

Global biomass trade has risen sharply in recent decades. This development was accompanied by increasing concerns about adverse environmental impacts in exporting countries. In Austria, strong preference for food and bioenergy from domestic sources is prevalent, while especially biomass imports for energy are met with scepticism. We here investigat...

Micronutrient deficiencies are decisive drivers of malnutrition and persistence of illnesses globally. International food trade is increasingly shaping land and food systems, through virtual trade in land and water, but also through affecting food supply by redistribution of micronutrients. However, trade flows of micronutrients between countries h...

Nearly three-quarters of global natural rubber production is used to produce tyres, supporting mobility around the globe. The projected increase in mobility could contribute to further expansion of rubber plantations and impact tropical ecosystems. We quantified the use of natural rubber in tyres in the European Union (EU), the corresponding land f...

Biomass production generates land use impacts in the form of emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU), i.e. due to changes in ecosystem carbon stocks. Recently, consumption-based accounting (CBA) approaches have emerged as alternatives to conventional production-based accounts, quantifying FOLU emissions associated with biomass consumption...

Background: Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets. Objective: The aim was to quant...

Agriculture contributes to deforestation and the conversion of other terrestrial ecosystems, affecting important ecosystem functions. A growing share of the produced agricultural commodities is traded between countries. It is widely assumed that international trade reduces humanity's pressure on land ecosystems by optimizing the mix of origin, i.e....

EU action to reduce deforestation and other habitat loss is more likely to be effective and feasible if: 1. Legislation is extended to include not just deforestation and forest degradation, but also the conversion of other ecologically important ecosystems, including savannahs and wetlands. A failure to do this risks large- scale displacement of i...

The contribution of domestic production to total fruit and vegetable supply in the UK decreased from 42% in 1987 to 22% in 2013. The impact of this changing pattern of UK fruit and vegetable imports from countries with different vulnerabilities to projected climate change on the resilience of the UK food system is currently unknown. Here, we used t...

Trade agreements could help to protect human rights, critical ecosystems, and the climate—but only if sustainability becomes a cornerstone of international trade. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement fails to meet our three tenets of sustainable trade agreements: (1) inclusion of local communities, (2) transparency mechanisms to trace commodities and pr...

The world population is expected to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and to ~11 billion by 2100, and securing its healthy nutrition is a key concern. As global fertile land is limited, the question arises whether growth in food consumption associated with increased affluence surmounts increases in land-use efficiency (measured as food supply per croplan...

In the context of growing societal demands for land-based products, crop production can be increased through expanding cropland or intensifying production on cultivated land. Intensification can allow sparing land for nature, but it can also drive further expansion of cropland, i.e. a rebound effect. Conversely, constraints on cropland expansion ma...

Low-meat and no-meat diets are increasingly acknowledged as sustainable alternatives to current Western food consumption patterns. Concerns for the environment, individual health or animal welfare are raising consumers’ willingness to adopt such diets. Dietary shifts in Western countries may modify the way human-environment systems interact over di...

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows-ecosystem services "imported" from and "exported" to other countries-are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little kno...

Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental recons...

Trade volume of agricultural products can be used to quantify the virtual land transfers between countries. This study assessed the virtual land trade (VLT) associated with the global trade of agricultural products using specific crop yield of exporting countries and gave insights in characteristics of different products and different countries. In...

A large share of our food comes from international supply food chains that are difficult to trace. Therefore, consumers are not aware of their environmental and social effects. We analysed the tomato supply system for Germany. Tomatoes consumed in Germany are produced either in The Netherlands by Polish workers and using large amounts of energy, or...

Multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases are used to analyze the impact of resource use and environmental impacts along global supply chains. To accurately account for pressures and impacts that are highly concentrated in specific sectors or regions of the world, such as agricultural and land-use-related impacts, MRIO databases are being fueled...

The global use of and pressure on land resources will continue to rise in tandem with the predicted rise in global population and food demand. Addressing unavoidable trade-offs between satisfying human needs and biodiversity conservation for future generations is of paramount importance when tackling the global environmental challenges of land use....

We define a family of environmental footprints. • We identify overlaps between different footprints. • We analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries. • We discuss the relation with SDGs, WEFE nexus and ecosystem services. • We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework. Editor: Damia Barcelo The number of publications on...

Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to...

The number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concer...

As the global food system contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, understanding the sources of GHG emissions embodied in different components of food systems is important. The collapse of the Soviet Union triggered a massive restructuring of the domestic food systems, namely declining consumption of animal products, crop...

While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of—and possible connections between—forest loss and ga...

Deforestation, the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is largely driven by expanding forestry and agriculture. However, despite agricultural expansion being increasingly driven by foreign demand, the links between deforestation and foreign demand for agricultural commodities have only been partially mapped. Here we pre...

Biodiversity and ecosystem service losses driven by land-use change are expected to intensify as a growing and more affluent global population requires more agricultural and forestry products, and teleconnections in the global economy lead to increasing remote environmental responsibility. By combining global biophysical and economic models, we sho...

Local threats to biodiversity are increasingly caused by distal drivers. Likewise, conservation responses are increasingly shaped by distal actors and processes as information on biodiversity loss percolates, and this, in turn, triggers conservation actions. Here, we define these actions as conservation telecouplings, that is, the coupling of dista...

Wherever land-use change occurs, empirical trails can lead us to the underlying causes of that change. The study of social metabolism—of the flows a system requires for its reproduction—constitutes one approach to this empirical work. In applying the social metabolism concept, the flows indicative of telecoupling between systems are commonly operat...

International trade presents a challenge for measuring the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission footprint of human diets, because imported food is produced with different production efficiencies and sourcing regions differ in land use histories. We analyze how trade and countries of origin impact GHG footprint calculation for EU food consumption. We find...

Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially skewed conclusions, impairing society’s ability to iden...

Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) wit...

Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land...

Hypothetic absorption potentials of carbon stock restorations and indicative years until saturation at a current emission level of 9 PgC yr-1. Note that a restoration to 100% of the potential probably entails a cessation of the respective land use, due to the intrinsic relations of harvest and carbon stocks25. *Years until saturation at current C-e...

Comparison of the difference between potential and actual biomass stocks to components of the global carbon balance, including LUC emissions and net terrestrial biosphere sink. Bold figures refer to results of this study, all others represent independent estimates. The difference in biomass stock of 447 PgC (375-525) is well in line with estimates...

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nature21403.

Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet, many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing da...

Recent hydrological modelling and Earth observations have located and quantified alarming rates of groundwater depletion worldwide. This depletion is primarily due to water withdrawals for irrigation, but its connection with the main driver of irrigation, global food consumption, has not yet been explored. Here we show that approximately eleven per...

Abstract Over the coming decades the global demand for food, and especially for animal products is projected to increase. At the same time, competition for agricultural land is projected to intensify due to a wide range of drivers, including a growing world population, changes in food consumption patterns and bioenergy production. It is therefore v...

Identifying the global hotspots of forestry driven species, ecosystem services losses and informing the consuming nations of their environmental footprint domestically and abroad is essential to design demand side interventions and induce sustainable production methods. Here we first use countryside species area relationship model to project specie...

The agricultural products consumed in Finland are increasingly grown on foreign farms. We analyze the Finnish imports of food and feed crops from 1986 to 2011 by products and by their geographic origin drawing a link to environmental impacts. The share of foreign crops consumed in Finland nearly doubled in the study period. The imports increased es...

Work is one of the main inputs in agriculture. It can be performed by humans, animals, or machinery. Studies have shown strong differences throughout the world in labour required to produce a kilogram of food. We complement this line of research by linking these data to food consumption patterns, which are also strongly different throughout the wor...

Biodiversity loss can be accelerated by human consumption in regions that are far removed from habitat degradation because of economic globalization, but no study has directly quantified the effects of global trade on extinction risks at a global scale with consideration for species differences. We propose a novel biodiversity footprint index based...

The transformation towards a low-carbon bioeconomy until 2050 is one of the main strategic long-term targets of the European Union. This work presents transformation scenarios for the case of Austria with GHG reduction to about 20% of Kyoto baseline. The scenarios are developed with an optimization model integrating the energy sector, land use and...

The terrestrial carbon cycle is not well quantified. Biomass turnover time is a crucial parameter in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate. Biomass turnover time varies substantially in time and space, but its determinants are not well known making predictions of future global carbo...

Changes in the production or consumption of agricultural commodities in one place can drastically affect land use and the environment elsewhere. We show how changes in beef production and consumption in Russia following the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991 contributed to the emergence of a beef trade linkage between Brazil and Russia. We argue...

The rise in intensive agriculture, and associated land-use change, is a major driver of biodiversity loss. This study evaluated these effects via international food trade, calculating estimates of species loss for 170 crops and 184 countries. The results show that the majority of biodiversity loss is due to growing crops for domestic consumption bu...

Despite their central role in land-use transitions, changes in land-use intensity are only poorly understood, and databases for systematically analyzing change in land-use intensity are largely missing. This knowledge gap is critical because, due to the anticipated changes in global population numbers and food, fiber and energy demand, the developm...

The concept of forest transitions was introduced by geographers in the 1990s to describe the observation that forests regrow with industrialization in many parts of the world. We use the case of Austria to discuss the forest transition in the context of Social Ecology based on empirical evidence on Austria’s carbon budget in the period 1830–2010. I...