Thomas Isbell

• Doctor of Philosophy
• PostDoc Position at University of Cape Town

In this paper, I explore whether perceived individual inequality is associated with popular demand for democracy in 33 African countries. Past research has diverged on whether individual-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that...

How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups...

What effect does crime have on South Africans' electoral behaviour? Do crime victims and citizens who fear crime enter or exit the electoral arena? If they do vote, do they sanction the ruling African National Congress (ANC)? We use two rounds of Afrobarometer data to provide answers. We corroborate earlier findings that crime victimisation does no...

Does perceived inequality shape how satisfied ordinary Africans are with how democracy is functioning in their countries? I use nationally representative Afrobarometer survey data (collected in 2016-2018 in 34 countries, N=45,811) to test whether satisfaction with democracy (SWD) is higher among people who (1) feel that their living conditions are...

What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature h...

In this paper we look at the effect of exposure to conflict, insecurity, and violence on popular attitudes towards democracy in four Sahel countries: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.Much attention has been given to the consequences of conflict, insecurity, and violence on state formation and democratization however, the study of such conseque...

In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as...

In this thesis I explore whether perceptions of individual economic inequality are linked to the legitimacy of democracy in Africa. Past research has suggested that high levels of economic inequality may affect the legitimacy of democracy, by reducing support for democracy and discouraging political participation. However, these findings have large...

Taxation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure (Drummond, Daal, Srivastava, & Oliveira, 2012). The importa...

What are the implications of economic inequality for political trust (i.e. trust in government and state institutions)? Political trust forms an important function in representative political systems. On the one hand, political trust facilitates the efficient functioning of government by allowing governments to make day-to-day decisions without con...

The Gambia does not have a history of ethnic and religious tensions. But starting under former President Yahya Jammeh and continuing since the change of government in 2017, political rivalries are increasingly taking an ethnic form. Given the increasing polarization in the post-Jammeh Gambia, how tolerant are Gambians, and how salient are ethnicity...

Does perceived inequality shape how satisfied ordinary Africans are with how democracy is functioning in their countries? In this paper, I use the most recent round of Afrobarometer data (collected from 2016 to 2018 in 34 countries, n=45812) to test whether satisfaction with democracy (SWD) is higher among people who feel that their living conditio...

Corruption is widely considered one of the greatest impediments to sustainable development in African countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Corruption hinders macro-economic growth by weakening governance structures and diluting the positive effects of investments. At the micro level, corrupt...

As COVID-19 reached the shores of Africa, many governments reacted by shutting down much of economic, social, and public life in order to slow the spread of the disease. On 15 March, with only three confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country, the government of Kenya closed all schools and imposed curfews, among other measures. On 7 July, with more...

Although Mozambique’s civil war ended in 1992, violence flared again in 2013 when the opposition RENAMO party renewed its insurgency against the FRELIMO government. Both sides stand accused of war crimes in a conflict whose death toll analysts estimate at near 1 million (France24, 2019). A peace agreed in August 2019 remains tentative as a small nu...

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented pressures on governments, economies, and families, posing what many observers consider the largest global peace-time challenge since the Great Depression a century ago. To date, the South African measures appear to have been successful in slowing the spread of the virus, and have been lauded internati...

In this paper I explore how perceived inequality shapes support for democracy among ordinary Africans. Past research has argued that macro-level inequality should both increase and decrease support for democracy. However, the empirical evidence is far from conclusive and little is known for cases in Africa. Recent advancements in the study of inequ...

In December 2016, a little-known businessman backed by a coalition of seven political parties shocked Gambians by defeating then-President Yahya Jammeh at the ballot box. Since the change of government in 2017, Gambians have celebrated their new-found freedom of speech (Durmaz, 2019), and observers have cited the country’s “rapid democratic gains”...

axation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization for countries around the world. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure. In our latest paper (with lul...

In December 2017, the National Assembly of the Gambia established a Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) to draft the country’s third Constitution (Freedom Newspaper, 2018). The Gambia’s founding Constitution (1970) was replaced in 1997, three years after a military coup led by Yahya Jammeh. For more than two decades, Jammeh and his Alliance for...

Tunisia has been a model of successful democratic transition in the Arab world since its revolution in 2011 (Caryl, 2019). While Libya, Yemen, and Syria have descended into civil war, Egypt and Bahrain into repression and authoritarianism, Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country where democracy has survived (Chulov, 2018). The small North African...

Accountability forms a central pillar of democratic governance. While free and fair elections help promote government of, by, and for the people, what happens between election days can be equally important. Respect for the rule of law and other government branches are as essential in the day-to-day business of governing as they are for ensuring hig...

During the first weekend of October, the Mauritian prime minister dissolved Parliament and called a general election for November 7 – a surprise announcement that left both the electoral commission and political parties scrambling (Weekly, 2019). The current government has claimed several high-visibility successes, including the launch of the Metr...

Now that sustained popular protests have ended former President Omar al-Bashir’s threedecade rule and achieved a power-sharing agreement among the military, civilian representatives, and protest groups (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2019; AP, 2019; BBC, 2019; Morgan, 2019; DW, 2019), Sudan confronts the opportunities and potential...

In most countries, the cultivation and consumption of cannabis are illegal. But that may be changing. In some U.S. states and Canada, legislators have taken steps to decriminalize the commercial farming and use of the plant. In 2018, Lesotho became the first African country to legalize the production of marijuana for medical use, and South Africa h...

Cabo Verde stands out on the African continent as a paradigm of tolerance and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. The country has ratified all major international human-rights conventions; its laws guarantee democratic freedoms; and its government is generally considered effective in respecting and protecting these rights (European C...

The political, economic, and social inequality of women in Africa has been part of international discourse since the 1950s, when the United Nations began interrogating the effects of harmful traditional norms and practices on women across the continent. Human-rights groups have worked with and challenged African governments to promote women’s acces...

Despite significant gains on basic health indicators, Togo’s health system remains fragile (Africa Renewal, 2010). Periodic disruptions became particularly trying for the public during a 2018 strike when even essential services were unavailable (Tounou-Akué, 2018; L-frii, 2018; alome.com, 2018; VOA, 2018; Kamako, 2018). Striking health-care workers...

Despite their country’s tremendous reserves of bauxite, iron ore, gold, and diamonds, 55% of Guineans live under the poverty line. Growth in the mining sector has not trickled down to average citizens, many of whom face a dearth of jobs, frequent power cuts, and inadequate supplies of drinking water (Republic of Guinea, 2017). Government efforts, o...

The political, economic, and social inequality of women in Africa has fueled significant international discourse since the 1950s, when the United Nations (UN) began interrogating the effects of harmful traditional practices on women across the continent. Human-rights groups have attempted to put pressure on African governments to promote women’s ac...

After two cyclones leaving death and devastation in their wake (eNCA, 2019a; 2019b), Mozambique faces a post-disaster danger – cholera. While endemic to Mozambique, cholera infections skyrocketed after the recent storms, leading the Ministry of Health and international partners to launch massive vaccination campaigns (World Health Organization, 201...

Sudan’s mass protests that ended the 30-rule of President Omar al-Bashir in April started last December with citizens unhappy about the high price of food (BBC News, 2019a). And while the protest movement grew beyond its initial economic agenda to demand fundamental political change, one certainty amid the dramatic events in Khartoum is that the c...

Gender equality is enshrined in Mozambique’s Constitution and promoted through its participation in international conventions and treaties as well as its 2004 Family Code, which requires equality in property and family law, including sharing of assets within marriage (International Federation for Human Rights, 2007; UN Women, 2012). During the laun...

Access to land is a contentious issue in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, a legacy of colonialism and accompanying dispossession. While neighbouring South Africa has moved toward expropriation without compensation (Ngcukaitobi, 2018; Pather, 2018), Namibia’s debate has highlighted the need for urban land and housing to accommodate continuing rural...

Health is the most important problem that Burkinabe want their government to address, according to the most recent Afrobarometer public-opinion survey. Despite significant progress, the National Economic and Social Development Plan (Burkina Faso, 2016) notes persistent challenges with regard to the quality of health-care services in the country as...

In Togo, the military is a very influential political actor. In 1967, a military coup installed Eyadema Gnassingbé as president, and he held power until his death in 2005. Immediately after his death, Eyadema’s son, Faure Gnassingbé, was declared president with the support of the Army. He resigned under regional pressure but ascended once more to t...

Between 2000 and 2017, the number of international migrants from Africa grew by 67%, including many professionals opting for greener pastures in developed countries (Pathera, 2014; Wulfhorst, 2018; Pew Research Center, 2018; Chloe, 2007). In Malawi, the resulting strain on the health-care system has received particular attention, as the country los...

Since independence in 1961, Tanzania has recorded a history of political and civil stability, including multiparty elections since 1995. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party has never lost a presidential election, but close results in the 2015 general election suggest the possible emergence of a more competitive environment. Despite the growi...

Nigeria’s upcoming elections may be as momentous as they are mammoth: More than 20,000 candidates from 91 registered political parties will square off in presidential, gubernatorial, and parliamentary contests that observers hope will strengthen the country’s democracy and ensure economic development and peace (Gana, 2019; International Crisis Grou...

Since August 2017, Togo has been shaken by waves of protests by a coalition of opposition parties known as C14 demanding constitutional, institutional, and electoral reforms resulting in parliamentary and local elections as well as a constitutional referendum in a more consensual atmosphere (Togo Times, 2018). The success of such an electoral marat...

Zambia has achieved steady growth in primary-school enrollment and completion, critics say poorly trained teachers, inadequate learning materials, and poor school governance undermine the quality of education (Global Partnership for Education, 2018). To address these challenges, the Zambian government has committed to educational reforms designed t...

Corruption poses a serious threat to economic development and democratic governance in Africa. In recent years, Lesotho has been shaken by a number of corruption scandals involving high-ranking politicians. Allegations of corruption in the government fleet-service contract with Bidvest featured significantly in the split of the leading Democratic C...

With just a year to go until presidential and parliamentary elections in December 2019, electoral campaigning will soon get underway in Mauritius. Incumbents can tout a number of strengths. Mauritius ranks highly on many indicators of good governance and democracy, such as the Ibrahim Index of African Governance and the Economist Intelligence Unit’...

For democracy to be “lived” by ordinary citizens, their ability to engage with others and the state must be protected.Since Mali democratized in 1992, the Constitution has guaranteed certain civil freedoms, including freedom of expression, freedom of association and assembly, and freedom of the press. Yet at times these freedoms come under attack....

Earlier this year, political tensions in Madagascar threatened to boil over when President Rajaonarimampianina tried to push through election reforms that opposition candidates said in effect blocked them from running (Trevor, 2018; Rabary, 2018; Bozzini, 2018; Manaleng, 2018)). Thousands protested against the change, at least two demonstrators wer...

Uganda consistently ranks low in terms of the rule of law and judicial integrity. The World Justice Project’s (2018) Rule of Law Index rates Uganda 104th out of 113 countries globally, and Freedom House (2018) gives Uganda a 4 out of 16 for rule of law. High-profile opposition politicians such as Robert Kyagulanyi (aka Bobi Wine) , Kizza Besigye an...

Ghana’s vibrant media has played an important role in the country’s democratization. From its strong advocacy during the country’s struggles for independence and democratic rule to its current watchdog role for society, the Ghanaian media has continually set the agenda on matters of critical importance, sustained the discourse, and effected change....

The principle of accountability, described as early as the 19th century by Alexis de Tocqueville, is central to the functioning of democratic rule. Citizens bestow legitimacy upon representatives to govern on their behalf through the process by which representatives are chosen and the “rules” they must adhere to (Behn, 2001; Ferejohn, 1999; Schedle...

A majority (55%) of Zimbabweans say the government is doing “fairly badly” or “very badly” at improving basic health services, more than 20 percentage points worse than evaluations in 2009 and 2012. Six in 10 Zimbabweans – but only five in 10 rural residents – live in areas with a nearby health clinic. A majority (59%) of respondents say they went...

As Zimbabwe struggled to contain a deadly cholera outbreak in September-October 2018, questions focused again on failures of infrastructure and leadership that continue to leave the country vulnerable to such a preventable, “medieval” disease (Burke, 2018; Eyewitness News, 2018). Zimbabwe has suffered repeated cholera outbreaks, including one in 20...

The government of Togo has taken recent steps to protect the rights of women and minorities. One is a new penal code, adopted in November 2015 after years of advocacy by human-rights organizations, that strengthens protections against gender-based violence and discrimination based on gender, ethnicity, religion, and other factors. However, the new...

Migration has become a top-of-mind and highly politicized issue. In a context of high poverty and unemployment in developing countries and demand for skilled young workers in many developed economies, global streams of people are likely to continue (Rapoza, 2017). Migration can have positive as well as negative consequences for both origin and dest...

Botswana has long been considered a leader in democratic practice, ranking among Africa’s best performers with regard to good governance, the rule of law, and respect for civil liberties. But in recent years, the same experts who have given the country high marks have also downgraded Botswana’s freedom status in response to a series of attacks on m...

As the world’s largest producer of cocoa, Côte d'Ivoire is particularly vulnerable to climate variations and unpredictable weather (Vaast, 2018). Unfavorable weather changes have already negatively impacted the quality and quantity of production (ENCA, 2015), threatening the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as the national economy. Whil...

While Botswana is widely recognized for its unbroken series of successful elections stretching back to independence in 1966, analysts have long pointed to low levels of political participation and a weak civil society as barriers on its path toward a strong democracy (Democracy Research Project, 2002; Mpabanga, 2000; Holm, Molutsi, & Somolekae, 199...

Since its independence in 1968, Mauritius has taken pride in promoting its development based on democracy, good governance, human rights and freedoms, and the rule of law. Its Constitution affirms that all Mauritians should benefit from the right to equal protection and assistance of the law against any form of discrimination. The country has show...

For Mauritius, the small island nation that Mark Twain referred to as the model for heaven, rising temperatures and rising sea levels can mean a host of threats, from more severe cyclones and floods to deterioration of coral reefs and beach erosion – an already-occurring phenomenon that the environment minister summed up this way: “Paradise is gett...

Much of the rhetoric ahead of Mali’s national elections in July has focused on security and reunification in the face of a continuing armed rebellion in the North (Bekow, 2018). Perhaps less obviously, the stakes are also high when it comes to what Malians demand from their government and their democracy. Malians’ highest priorities, according to...

Corruption is one of the largest impediments to economic growth, human development, and alleviation of poverty in Africa (Transparency International, 2015; United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Studies have shown that corruption is particularly harmful to the poorest and most vulnerable, who depend most...

In 2012, following a coup ousting President Amadou Toumani Touré and a Tuareg rebellion, various armed groups took control of northern and more recently central Mali. Among other things, these groups call for an Islamic state and the implementation of Sharia law (Laub & Masters, 2015; George, 2012). Recent developments have highlighted a new Islami...

Over the past decade, Uganda has emerged as a success story of African development. Economic growth and diversification, relative political stability, and considerable investment in infrastructure have seen the country rise as a regional power (Murray, Mesfin, & Wolters, 2016). But to many international observers, this success is dimmed by the long...

The United Nations (2017) identifies climate change caused by human activity as one of the major challenges of our time, and building climate resilience will require a committed and coordinated effort (Busby, Smith, White, & Strange, 2012). The most recent Afrobarometer survey in Kenya suggests that the government has a solid popular base for its...

In addition to the growing number of African states that conduct regular elections and embed democratic principles in their constitutions, evidence comes from survey-based research that most Africans support democratic values and reward governments that adhere to democratic rules (Mattes & Bratton, 2007; Bratton & Mattes, 2001). However, in many co...

As Lesotho embarks on a highly anticipated multi-sectoral reform process called for by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in an attempt to bring lasting peace and stability to Lesotho, dual citizenship counts among constitutional issues that will be debated. Results of a new Afrobarometer survey show strong – and increasing – public...

Islam and democracy have often been described as antipodes, or at least as an awkward match (Huntington, 1997; Kedourie, 2013). Fueled by terrorist attacks by Al-Qaeda, Islamic State, and Boko Haram, intense public debate in the West has linked the relative scarcity of democracies in majority-Muslim countries (Fish, 2002) with the belief that autho...

Elections form a central pillar of democratic rule, yet many elections in Africa have been marred by unfair campaign conditions, rigged votes, or term-limit adjustments to help incumbents retain office (Bratton, 1998; Levitsky & Way, 2002; Lindberg, 2006; Collier & Vicente, 2012). In Gabon, violence ensued after President Ali Bongo was accused of...

This paper examines the views and experiences of ordinary Africans related to tax compliance. Afrobarometer survey data indicate that a strong majority of Africans see paying taxes as a civic duty that is important to a country’s development and should be fulfilled regardless of whether one is dissatisfied with government services. But low levels o...

Under the one-party reign of President Hastings Kamuzu Banda, Malawi was described as a country “where silence rules” (Carver, 1990) because of the regime’s effective machinery for squashing dissent. This era ended with a 1993 referendum endorsing a multiparty democracy and constitution enshrining freedom of expression and of association (Malawi Go...

An effective and transparent administration forms the backbone of a well-run democratic state and market economy in the developing world (Grindle & Hilderbrand, 1995.) Recruitment of public-sector staff based on merit plays an important role in ensuring not only that the machine functions smoothly but also that ordinary citizens have confidence in...

For most Burundians, land is both history and livelihood. In a densely populated country where almost nine out of 10 citizens are subsistence farmers, land ownership is a desperate need and a flashpoint for conflict exacerbated by ethnic cleavages and waves of migration and return. During a genocide in 1972 and a civil war in 1993-2005, Burundi wit...

As a small-island middle-income country, Cape Verde is seeking closer ties with mainland African countries to sustain economic growth and development (Daily Graphic, 2017; ECOWAS, 2017). And beyond Africa, Cape Verde is tapping into the economic ambitions of China for investment and technical assistance, especially in the “blue economy” of the coun...

Corruption is a major obstacle to economic growth, human development, and poverty reduction (Mauro, 1995, 2004; Asiedu, 2006). The practice of demanding or expecting monetary or other benefits in exchange for preferential treatment has plagued the global South, and high-profile revelations of corruption in politics and business have shed light on t...

While accountability is a cornerstone of democracy, it is rare that a former head of state is prosecuted in a national court for misconduct while in office. Burkina Faso is departing from the norm with its trials of former President Blaise Compaore and senior members of his government for allegedly authorizing the use of force against unarmed prote...

Later this year, after 12 years in office, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will step down as president of Liberia and Africa’s first female head of state, having completed her maximum of two terms. Sirleaf, who came to power after decades of underdevelopment, tyranny, and civil conflict in Liberia, will leave a legacy that has won international acclaim – inc...

Post-independence, many states in Africa faced a plethora of challenges, from poverty and ethnic cleavages emphasized by former colonizers to corrupt political elites and non-functioning institutions. In numerous cases, this mixture resulted in civil war or violence, further weakening the state. In Sudan, peace has been the exception since independ...

Six years after protests swept Northern Africa in the Arab Spring, Algeria entered 2017 with unrest in the streets. Like many other petro-economies, Algeria relies heavily on high state spending and subsidies. But in recent years, plummeting oil and gas prices have hit the county’s economy hard. Algeria generates about 95% of its export earnings fr...

Since independence in 1975, Mozambique’s history has been marked by deep economic crises, political instability, and widespread human-rights violations. In 1990, after 16 years of civil war between the governing Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO) and the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (RENAMO), the government of former President Joaquim...

Madagascar represents both a paradox and a common African story. The country is blessed with some of the world’s largest known natural-resource reserves, especially high-grade iron ore and precious stones such as alluvial sapphires. At the same time, its people are among the world’s poorest. According to a 2015 report by the International Monetary...

The theft of public funds for personal enrichment by elected and autocratic leaders has been a bane of African development (Amadi & Ekekwe, 2014; Ebegbulem, 2012; Owoye & Bissessar, 201 2; Gyimah - Brempong, 2002; Bayart, Ellis, & Hibou, 1999; Lawal, 2007). In 1981, Senegal introduced the offense of illicit enrichment into its penal code and create...

On January 31, 2017, the Kingdom of Morocco rejoined the African Union (AU) after a 33-year absence. The country had left the Organisation of African Unity in 1984 after the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) – to which Morocco lays claim – was acknowledged as an independent state and gained admittance to the continental body (Mohamed, 2017)....

In early 2016, five years after the beginning of the Arab Spring, the Economist (2016) reported that hopes raised by the uprisings had been destroyed. “The wells of despair are overflowing,” the newspaper said, the uprisings having brought “nothing but woe.” In addition to stagnant economic growth, rent-seeking was “rampant,” security forces contin...

Plagued by the dramatic implications of 15 years of civil war, widespread corruption, and natural disasters, Mozambique’s social and economic development has long lagged behind that of many neighbouring countrie s. Although the nation has achieved significant economic growth since the end of its civil war in 1992, infrastructure development remains...

In many parts of Africa, access to and quality of medical services remain poor (Deaton & Tortora, 2015; KPMG, 2012; Lowell, Conway, Keesmaat, McKenna, & Richardson, 2010; Streefland, 2005). While economic growth in recent decades has fostered improved health care on the continent, weak funding, brain drain of trained professionals, and ongoing batt...

In recent decades, the number and intensity of climate-related hazards such as floods, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, landslides, heat waves, and droughts have increased around the world (Emanuel, 2005; Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012). Among climate scientists, there is a broad consensus that these increases are associated with global warming caused in l...