Thiago Rangel

• Doctor of Philosophy
• Professor at Federal University of Goiás

Evolutionary processes underlying spatial patterns in species richness remain largely unexplored, and correlative studies lack the theoretical basis to explain these patterns in evolutionary terms. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate, under a pattern-oriented modeling approach, whether evolutionary niche dyna...

The duality between "niche" and "biotope" proposed by G. Evelyn Hutchinson provides a powerful way to conceptualize and analyze biogeographical distributions in relation to spatial environmental patterns. Both Joseph Grinnell and Charles Elton had attributed niches to environments. Attributing niches, instead, to species, allowed Hutchinson's key i...

SAM (Spatial Analysis in Macroecology) is a freeware application that offers a comprehensive array of spatial statistical methods, focused primarily on surface pattern spatial analysis. SAM is a compact, but powerful stand-alone software, with a user-friendly, menu-driven graphical interface. The methods available in SAM are the most commonly used...

Ecological and evolutionary questions addressing diversity‐environment relationships have been evaluated almost entirely in geographic space, yet most hypotheses are formulated in terms of environmental conditions. Recent examples evaluating macroecological patterns directly in environmental space suggest that such refocusing provides different per...

Aim Undersampling and other sources of sampling bias pose significant issues in marine macroecology, particularly when shaping conservation and management decisions. Yet, determining the extent to which such biases impact our understanding of marine diversity remains elusive. Here, utilising empirical data on sampling efforts, we sampled from virtu...

Phylogenetic indexes summarize the evolutionary information within a given assemblage pool based on the topology and branch lengths of a hypothesized phylogenetic tree. However, different historical contingencies experienced by these assemblages can unevenly distribute evolutionary information through time and over the phylogeny. ‘treesliceR' is an...

Aim To describe worldwide distribution of mammalian cradles and museums using the rates of phylogenetic lineage turnover as a surrogate. Additionally, we investigated the influences of current water–energy dynamics, climate instability, past climate changes and elevational ranges on the distribution of these evolutionary zones. Location Global. T...

Climate’s effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1,2,3,4,5,6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspectiv...

Differences among hummingbird species in bill length and shape have rightly been viewed as adaptive in relation to the morphology of the flowers they visit for nectar. In this study we examine functional variation in a behaviorally related but neglected feature: hummingbird feet. We gathered records of hummingbirds clinging by their feet to feed le...

Motivation Climate change plays an important role in the generation and maintenance of biodiversity by driving processes such as diversification and range shifts. As a result, biodiversity patterns are often found to carry the imprints of palaeoclimatic changes. However, we still know little about the spatial and temporal variation in climate over...

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic rang...

While many studies predict changes in the distribution of individual species as a result of climate change, few studies have assessed such changes at the community level for aquatic invertebrates. We used ostracods (bivalved micro-crustaceans) to assess the effects of climate change on regional species richness , (re-) distribution and community co...

Landscape dynamics are widely thought to govern the tempo and mode of continental radiations, yet the effects of river network rearrangements on dispersal and lineage diversification remain poorly understood. We integrated an unprecedented occurrence dataset of 4,967 species with a newly compiled, time-calibrated phylogeny of South American freshwa...

Aim: Inverse latitudinal diversity gradients (i-LDGs), whereby regional richness peaks outside the tropics, have rarely been investigated, and their causes remain unclear. Here, we investigate three prominent explanations, postulating that species-rich regions have had: (1) longer time to accumulate species; (2) faster diversification; and (3) more...

Insular biodiversity is expected to be regulated differently than continental biota, but their determinants remain to be quantified at a global scale. We evaluated the importance of physical, environmental and historical factors on mammal richness and endemism across 5592 islands worldwide. We fitted generalized linear and mixed models to accommoda...

Landscape dynamics and river network rearrangements are widely thought to shape the diversity of Neotropical freshwater fishes, the most species-rich continental vertebrate fauna on Earth. Yet the effects of hydrogeographic changes on fish dispersal and diversification remain poorly understood. Here we integrate an unprecedented occurrence dataset...

Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative role o...

Species distribution models (SDMs) are subject to many sources of uncertainty, limiting their application in research and practice. One of their main limitations is the quality of the distributional data used to calibrate them, which directly influences the accuracy of model predictions. We propose a standardized methodology to create maps, describ...

Humans currently collectively use thousands of languages1,2. The number of languages in a given region (i.e. language “richness”) varies widely3–7. Understanding the processes of diversification and homogenization that produce these patterns has been a fundamental aim of linguistics and anthropology. Empirical research to date has identified variou...

• Freshwater ecosystems, providing valuable goods and services to humans, have been subjected to multiple human impacts, among which climate change plays a central role in threats to species. It is expected that protected areas, the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation efforts, will assume a decisive role in protecting freshwater species from t...

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutio...

Aim We aimed to dissect the spatial variation of the direct and indirect effects of climate and productivity on global species richness of terrestrial tetrapods. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Terrestrial tetrapods. Methods We used a geographically weighted path analysis to estimate and map the direct and indirect effe...

Aim The Island Rule—that is, the tendency for body size to decrease in large mammals and increase in small mammals on islands has been commonly evaluated through macroecological or macroevolutionary, pattern‐orientated approaches, which generally fail to model the microevolutionary processes driving either dwarfing or gigantism. Here, we seek to id...

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolution...

Species distribution models (SDM) are widely used as indicators of different aspects of geographical ranges for many purposes, from conservation to biogeographical and evolutionary analyses. However, these techniques are susceptible to various sources of uncertainty. Data coverage, species’ ecology, and the characteristics of their geographic distr...

A primary goal of biodiversity research is to uncover the processes acting in space and time to create the global distribution of species richness. However, we currently lack an understanding of how recent versus ancient biodiversity dynamics shape patterns of diversity for most groups. Here, we introduce a method to partition lineage turnover into...

A primary goal of biodiversity research is to uncover the processes acting in space and time to create the global distribution of species richness. However, we currently lack an understanding of how recent versus ancient biodiversity dynamics shape patterns of diversity for most groups. Here, we introduce a method to partition lineage turnover into...

1. Climate change and species invasions pose serious threats to biodiversity. Daphnia lumholtzi Sars, 1885, a cladoceran species native to Africa, Asia, and Oceania, has successfully invaded large sections of North and South America, there is evidence that the increase in the Earth's temperature and the number of reservoirs have facilitated this pr...

Background Dengue disease is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Over recent years, mechanistic approaches have predicted areas of dengue risk according to the temperature effect on mosquitos’ lifespan and incuba...

At least six different Homo species populated the World during the latest Pliocene to the Pleistocene. The extinction of all but one of them is currently shrouded in mystery, and no consistent explanation has yet been advanced, despite the enormous importance of the matter. Here, we use a recently implemented past climate emulator and an extensive...

Homo sapiens is the only species alive able to take advantage of its cognitive abilities to inhabit almost all environments on Earth. Humans are able to culturally construct, rather than biologically inherit, their occupied climatic niche to a degree unparalleled within the animal kingdom. Precisely, when hominins acquired such an ability remains u...

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is the biggest public health challenge in the last 100 years. No successful pharmaceutical treatment is yet available, thus effective public health interventions to contain COVID-19 include social distancing, isolation and quarantine measures. However the efficiency of these containment measures varied am...

A bstract The expansion of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a renewed interest in epidemiological models and on how parameters can be estimated from observed data. Here we investigated the relationship between average number of transmissions though time, the reproductive number Rt , and social distancing index as reported by mobile...

Aim Historical climate variations, current climate and human impacts are known to influence current species richness, but their effects on phylogenetic and trait diversity have been seldom studied. We investigated the relationship of these three factors with the independent variations of species, phylogenetic and trait diversity of European mammals...

Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used to quantify the potential occurrence of species, by identifying the main environmental factors that determine the presence of species across geographical space. We provide a large-scale survey of the distribution of ostracod species in South America, by using the domains of 25 river basins. From 221 kn...

Preventing diseases from becoming a problem where they are not is a common ground for disease ecology. The expectation for vector-borne diseases, especially those transmitted by mosquitos, is that warm and wet conditions favor vector traits increasing transmission potential. The advent of urbanization altering inner climate conditions hazards to in...

We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last 5×106 years. The 5×106-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental qu...

Aim The decreasing capacity of area to predict species richness on small islands (the small‐island effect; SIE) seems to be one of the few exceptions of the species–area relationship. While most studies have focused on how to detect the SIE, the underlying ecological factors determining this pattern remain largely unexplored. Here, we evaluate one...

This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest...

According to the island rule, small-bodied vertebrates will tend to evolve larger body size on islands, whereas the opposite happens to large-bodied species. This controversial pattern has been studied at the macroecological and biogeographical scales, but new developments in quantitative evolutionary genetics now allow studying the island rule fro...

Aim Explore the spatial variation of the relationships between species richness (SR), phylogenetic diversity (PD) and environmental factors to infer the possible mechanisms underlying patterns of diversity in different regions of the globe. Location Global. Time period Present day. Major taxa studied Terrestrial mammals. Methods We used a hexag...

Aim Tall and structurally complex forests can provide ample habitat and niche space for climbing plants, supporting high liana species richness. We test to what extent canopy height (as a proxy of 3‐D habitat structure), climate and soil interact to determine species richness in the largest clade of Neotropical lianas. We expect that the effect of...

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We...

Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct r...

Expanding populations may loss genetic diversity because sequential founder events throughout a wave of demographic expansion may cause “allele surfing”, as the alleles of founder individuals may propagate rapidly through space. The spatial components of allele surfing have been studied by geneticists, but have never been investigate on dynamic and...

Aim To evaluate the effect of biogeographical history on climatic niche diversification. Location Simulated clades evolving in South America. Methods We modelled species evolution under neutral community dynamics and purposely assumed that climatic niche is an emergent property of species. This assumption allows us to better understand whether ph...

Although many hypotheses have been proposed to explain why humans speak so many languages and why languages are unevenly distributed across the globe, the factors that shape geographical patterns of cultural and linguistic diversity remain poorly understood. Prior research has tended to focus on identifying universal predictors of language diversit...

Despite the widespread use of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g., biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic constraints) are...

Climate change threatens freshwater fish by severely modify water quality and hydrological dynamics, hence altering the species distribution. We assessed the climate change effects on the geographical distribution of Salminus brasiliensis, a keystone species of economic interest in the La Plata River basin. Using ecological niche models, we estimat...

Knowledge on the relationships between species functional traits and environmental filters is key to understanding the mechanisms underlying the current patterns of biodiversity loss from a multi-taxa perspective. The aim of this study was to identify the main environmental factors driving the functional structure of a terrestrial vertebrate commun...

The idea that simplicity of explanation is important in science is as old as science itself. However, scientists often assume that parsimonious theories, hypothesis and models are more plausible than complex ones, forgetting that there is no empirical evidence to connect parsimony with credibility. The justification for the parsimony principle is s...

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely studied patterns in ecology, yet no consensus has been reached about its underlying causes. We argue that the reasons for this are the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, the failure to mechanistically link interacting ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and the fact...

A reliable description of any spatial pattern in species richness requires accurate knowledge about species geographical distribution. However, sampling bias may generate artefactual absences within species range and compromise our capacity to describe biodiversity patterns. Here, we analysed the spatial distribution of 35,000 marine species (varyi...

We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatiotemporal description of the climate of the last five million years. The 5-million-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolut...

Explaining how heterogeneous spatial patterns of species diversity emerge is one of the most fascinating questions of biogeography. One of the great challenges is revealing the mechanistic effect of environmental variables on diversity. Correlative analyses indicate that productivity is associated with taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional divers...

Simulating South American biodiversity The emergence, distribution, and extinction of species are driven by interacting factors—spatial, temporal, physical, and biotic. Rangel et al. simulated the past 800,000 years of evolution in South America, incorporating these factors into a spatially explicit dynamic model to explore the geographical generat...

We used the standardized protocol proposed by Grimm et al. (2010) to describe our multitrophic neutral simulation. The protocol was developed to overcome the difficulty of describing and replicating results of individual-based models (IBMs). The ODD protocol proposes that simulation models should be described by a general overview (O), design conce...

A contemporary goal in ecology is to determine the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate recurring structural patterns in mutualistic networks. One of the great challenges is testing the capacity of neutral processes to replicate observed patterns in ecological networks, since the original formulation of the neutral theory lacks troph...

Spatial and/or temporal biases in biodiversity data can directly influence the utility, comparability, and reliability of ecological and evolutionary studies. While the effects of biased spatial coverage of biodiversity data are relatively well known, temporal variation in data quality (i.e., the congruence between recorded and actual information)...

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We u...

We tested the adequacy of two richness-modelling approaches within the ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework for drosophilid flies in a tropical biome. The pattern of drosophilid species richness throughout the Brazilian savanna was investigated by comparing richness estimates from macroecological models (MEM) and sta...

Aim Conservationists have been using ecological niche modelling ( ENM ) to understand how climate change impacts species, estimate their extinction risk and assess species conservation status in the future. However, most ENM s are built using just current species occurrences. As short‐term observations are naturally biased and incomplete in both ge...

Aim Two fundamental questions about human language demand answers: why are so many languages spoken today and why is their geographical distribution so uneven? Although hypotheses have been proposed for centuries, the processes that determine patterns of linguistic and cultural diversity remain poorly understood. Previous studies, which relied on c...

Aim To inve stigate geographical patterns of phylogenetic beta diversity (PBD) and its turnover and nestedness‐resultant components for terrestrial mammals. We expect an increase in the importance of the nestedness‐resultant component towards temperate regions given the historical loss of lineages caused by environmental and spatial constraints. An...

Little is known about how biogeographic processes affect the dynamics of species interactions in space and time, although it is widely accepted that they drive community assemblage. In functional interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal, species that share common ancestry tend to retain a common number of interactions and interact with...

The search for correlates of scientific production is an important step toward the formulation of decision-making guidelines on academic and funding policy under a competitive system with continuously reduced budgets. Our goal here is to identify drivers of the scientific production of researchers working at the “Universidade Federal de Goiás” (UFG...

Human disturbance drives the decline of many species, both directly and indirectly. Nonetheless , some species do particularly well around humans. One mechanism that may explain coexistence is the degree to which a species tolerates human disturbance. Here we provide a comprehensive meta-analysis of birds, mammals and lizards to investigate species...

Supplementary Figures 1-9, Supplementary Tables 1-5, Supplementary Methods and Supplementary References

Model selection of all birds: phylogenetic effect not controlled

Complete data set

Model selection of all birds: phylogenetic effect controlled

Model selection of rural-urban birds: phylogenetic effect not controlled

Model selection of rural-urban birds: phylogenetic effect controlled

Ecologists and biogeographers usually rely on a single phylogenetic tree to study evolutionary processes that affect macroecological patterns. This approach ignores the fact that each phylogenetic tree is a hypothesis about the evolutionary history of a clade, and cannot be directly observed in nature. Also, trees often leave out many extant specie...

O clima pode ser considerado um fator extremamente importante na distribuição da vegetação e suas características em um contexto global. Os modelos de distribuição geográfica potencial ("spatial distribution model") são importantes ferramentas para predizer mudanças induzidas pelo clima na distribuição das espécies. Em geral, estudos sobre as conse...

Advances in molecular biology, remote sensing, systems biology, bioinformatics, non-linear science, the physics of complex systems and other fields have rendered a great amount of data that remain to be integrated into models and theories that are capable of accounting for the complexity of ecological systems and the evolutionary dynamics of life....

AimSpecies distribution models (SDM) can be used to predict the location of unknown populations from known species occurrences. It follows that how the data used to calibrate the models are collected can have a great impact on prediction success. We evaluated the influence of different survey designs and their interaction with the modelling techniq...

Most species data display spatial autocorrelation that can affect ecological niche models (ENMs) accuracy-statistics, affecting its ability to infer geographic distributions. Here we evaluate whether the spatial autocorrelation underlying species data affects accuracy-statistics and map the uncertainties due to spatial autocorrelation effects on sp...

Aim The fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid‐Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) fore...

Biogeographical models are used to understand emergent patterns of biodiversity. Statistical methods are traditionally used to quantify correlation between biodiversity measures and environment, but such approach offers limited understanding of biological mechanisms. Recently, biogeographers have been deriving mathematical models that make explicit...