Terry Barker

• ALCM (London), MA (Edin), MA (Cantab.), PhD (Cantab.)
• Fellow at University of Cambridge

The climate targets agreed in Paris 2015 render deep decarbonization of energy-and emission-intensive industries crucial. Policy makers are interested in the macroeconomic consequences of such decarbonization pathways and often rely on integrated modelling studies. However, the underlying modelling assumptions and uncertainties often remain unquest...

This paper describes the problems involved in moving from a large-scale input-output model based on static general equilibrium theory into a dynamic multisectoral model that projects year to year into the future.

This is the original article published in Climatic Change, 2008

The problem of avoiding dangerous climate change requires analysis from many disciplines. Mainstream economic thinking about the problem has shifted after the Stern Review from a single-discipline focus on cost-benefit analysis to a more inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary risk analysis, already evident in the IPCC?s Assessment Reports. This...

Richard Stone is recognised as the father of national accounting, having pioneered the United Nations’ System of National Accounts and been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1984 for this work. His specific contribution to Cambridge economics came from his time as the first Director of the Department of Applied Economics (DAE) and his subsequ...

China, as a fast growing fossil-fuel-based economy, experiences increasing levels of air pollution. To tackle air pollution, China has taken the first steps by setting emission–reduction targets for nitrogen oxides (NOx ) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans. This paper uses two models—the Energy–Environment–Economy Model...

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of...

The paper considers the links between financial system, economic growth and environmental pollution and damages through: (1) investment in the real economy; and (2) financial instruments for environmental policy. The literature on the effect of finance on pollution is dominated by econometric studies of the effect of financial variables on the Envi...

This paper assesses the effects of a global emissions trading scheme (GETS) for international aviation and shipping as a way of reducing emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHG) and other atmospheric emissions that lead to air pollution. A prior assessment of such integration requires the coupling of energy–environment–economy (E3) global modelling...

Too often amongst policy makers and thought leaders an assumption is made that we must make a choice between tackling climate change and having a strong economy; tackling climate change and allowing poorer nations to develop; tackling climate change and having a secure energy system. However, a decade of advanced modelling tested against historical...

Economic analyses have produced widely differing estimates of the economic implications of policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation ranging from high costs to modest benefits. The main reason for the differences appears to be differences in approaches and assumptions. This paper analyses the extent to which the post-SRES 2 model results for the...

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF...

Climate policy choices are influenced by the economics literature which analyses the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for climate action. This literature, in turn, rests on a series of choices about: the values and assumptions underlying the economic analysis; the methodologies for treating dynamics, technological change, risk and uncer...

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that...

This paper reports the results of extending a previous analysis of reductions in ozone exposures resulting from greenhouse gas reduction policies in Mexico, to the case of estimating reductions in premature death and risks of non-fatal diseases following reductions in both ozone and particulate matter exposures. The results show that a policy of gr...

The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the main environmental, technical and economic debates influencing the politics of climate policy in rapidly industrializing countries. The discussion focuses on major developing countries that have not agreed to legally binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and on Russia, a country which...

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has resulted in 50% of Guangyuan city facing recovery from different extents of damages. The massive reconstruction provides a good opportunity for Guangyuan city to response to the National Council’s call for tackling climate change by developing a harmonised and low-carbon economy. However, there are many arguments...

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the...

The chapter describes the main modelling tools, E3ME and GINFORS, which were used to provide a quantitative analysis of the effects of ETR, and sets out the models' underlying assumptions and simplifications that play a large role in determining the magnitude and direction of the models' results. The chapter also identifies areas in which the model...

This chapter describes the modelling of an ETR for Europe, using the models described in Chapter 8. The chapter starts by describing the role of the baseline in the analysis and why it is important to choose an appropriate baseline. It then describes the main scenarios undertaken, with a discussion of the taxes implemented and the relationship betw...

The systems approach to studying environmental and economic issues has grown significantly over recent years. Whereas between 1980 and 1990 only four articles in the Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) contained reference to environment, ecological and system in their topic, during 2000-2009 the comparable figure h...

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees C increase by...

‘New economics’, as outlined in this chapter, is developed from the Post Keynesian approach to macroeconomics to allow for intrinsic values, institutional change and diverse consumers and producers. The chapter presents a self-evident set of assumptions on which to base the theory and then develops an analysis of demand-driven markets within a hist...

An interview discussing "New Economics" with Professor Terry Barker

This paper reports the methodology and results of an one-waycoupling of the E3 Model at the Global level (E3MG) model to the global atmosphericchemistrymodel, p-TOMCAT, to assess the effects on the concentrations of atmospheric gases over Mexico of a low-GHG scenario compared to an alternative reference case with higher use of fossil fuels. The pap...

The literature on climate stabilization modeling largely refers to either energy-system or inter-temporal computable general equilibrium/optimal growth models. We contribute with a different perspective by deploying a large-scale macro-econometric hybrid simulation model of the global energy- environment-economy (E3MG) adopting a “New Economics” ap...

This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show t...

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggrega...

This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show t...

This chapter assesses the macroeconomic effects of carbon-energy taxation introduced under unilateral environmental tax reform (ETR) in the 1990s undertaken in six member states of the European Union: Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. The effects are estimated using the large-scale Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) model...

This chapter provides a theoretical treatment of money and its role in 21st century Keynesian economics and in the 21st century economy, e.g. with some reference to the credit crisis of 2007 onwards. To start, the treatment of money in 20th century Keynesian economics is reviewed, including that provided by Keynes. Then the current theory of endoge...

The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30–50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional l...

This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the global economy arising from energy-efficiency policies. Such policies are expected to be a leading component of climate policy portfolios being proposed and adopted in order to achieve climate stabilisation targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050, such as the G8 50% reduction target by 2050. We a...

ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems – i.e., adaptation – as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control huma...

This paper considers how the solution to the economic crisis may or may not be positive for mitigating climate change. A positive outcome would take the form of the required coordinated intervention by governments being focused on investment in low greenhouse gas options for climate change mitigation. A negative outcome would be if governments atte...

Policies to decarbonise the UK's rising emissions from transport have become more critical with the introduction of the UNFCC's target to limit a rise in global temperature to no more than two degrees. This means that all sectors will need to substantially decrease their carbon footprint and even decarbonise by 2050 to 2060. Comprehensive policies...

The purpose of an environmental tax reform (ETR) is to implement specific taxes to encourage households and industries to behave in a way which is environmentally sustainable. To counterbalance the possible adverse effects of an increase in green taxes, other taxes are reduced, using the revenues generated by the ETR implementation. This ‘recycling...

Terry Barker, Şerban Scrieciu and David Taylor discuss the implications of climate change for social justice and the prospects for more sustainable development pathways. They state that the analysis and discussions surrounding the climate change problem, particularly those drawing on the traditional economics literature, have relied on a crude econ...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

The setting of binding targets for CO2 emission reductions for 2020 by the European Union (EU) alone has led to concerns that unilateral climate change mitigation may not only hamper the union's competitiveness, but also result in carbon leakage. The paper explores these claims through the deployment of a dynamic, nonlinear, macro-econometric simul...

This chapter considers how the treatment of revenues from environmental taxes and charges affects the results from models that are designed to address economic aspects of sustainability (Barker, 2004), such as mitigation of climate change. Normally, all the models explicitly or implicitly recycle the revenues from taxes or charges. This form of rec...

This report elaborates two 2-degree scenarios (450 ppm and 400ppm) for Europe until 2050. The research is embedded into a larger framework of a global analysis of climate mitigation policy carried out by the European ADAM project. Our analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis of all GHG emitting sectors in Europe with the objective...

: Recent developments in global finance and the world economy have demonstrated some of the shortcomings in the widely-applied equilibrium-based modeling approach. In this paper, the global E3MG model (www.e3mgmodel.com) has been applied to assess the impacts of the crisis that began in 2008 with the so-called credit crunch. E3MG is a sectoral inpu...

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of Kyoto Protocol, designed for the industrialized countries to earn emission credits by investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction projects in developing countries, shall contribute to emission reductions and sustainable development in the host countries. However, whether the CDM is achieving its dua...

With the emergence of accelerated technological change and progress, economic growth has been exhibiting increasingly complex features. Trade within and across industries, countries and regions, has risen sharply, and the globalisation effects of economies of specialisation, low-cost information technologies and networks have taken a stronger grip...

The problem of avoiding dangerous climate change requires analysis from many disciplines. Mainstream economic thinking about the problem has shifted with the Stern Review from a single-discipline focus on cost-benefit analysis to a new inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary risk analysis, already evident in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. This...

The way forward is in international agreement to establish a global carbon market, with the ultimate aim of decarbonising the global economy. A good starting point is a scheme covering international activities such as aviation and shipping, with a cap-and-trade scheme to achieve zero net emissions by 2050, and auctioning of revenues to support low-...

This article assesses the feasibility of a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 using a large-scale Post Keynesian simulation model of the global energy-environment-economy system. The main policy to achieve the target is a carbon price rising to 100/tCO2 by 2050, attained through auctioned CO2 permits for the energy sector, and carbon taxes for...

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol is designed to allow the industrialised countries to earn credits by investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction projects in developing countries, which contribute to sustainable development in the host countries. This research empirically investigates the long-run impacts of CDM...

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is designed to serve the dual purposes of allowing the industrialised countries to earn credits by investing in project activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while contributing to sustainable development in developing countries via the flows of technology and capital....

An important question for climate policy making is how much GHG emissions and energy can be saved, in which sectors and at what costs? Traditionally, studies looking at this question are often characterised as either using a Bottom-Up or a Top-Down approach. The differences between these approaches are far from clear-cut. The first approach tends t...

The purpose of this chapter is to introduce readers to the main environmental, technical and economic debates influencing the politics of climate policy in the countries discussed in this book. The chapter begins by discussing the problem of climate change and its institutional background. This is followed by an assessment of the main economic and...

This paper combines SCENES, an EU transport model with E3ME, an EU macroeconometric model. Social Marginal Cost Pricing (SMCP) and fuel tax increases were combined with a concentrated TEN-T programme. Large externalities mean an SMCP with very high revenues; if recycled through reductions in other, distortional taxes, GDP significantly increases. F...

Studies of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol have shown carbon leakage (typically from tax and permit schemes with lump-sum revenues recycling) to be in the range of 5–20% using static Computable General Equilibrium models. However, in practice, researchers have found that carbon leakage from the implementation of the EU ETS is unlikely to be subst...

This paper reports a study modeling climate policies in the United Kingdom for road transportation over the period 2000 to 2010. Estimates of the effects of fuel-economy policies are introduced into the energy-demand equation for transport in a top-down dynamic econometric model of the UK economy with 50 industrial sectors, MDM-E3. This allows esti...

This paper reports a study modeling the UK Climate Change Agreements (CCAs) and related energy-efficiency policies for energy-intensive industrial sectors. Bottom–up estimates of the effects of these policies are introduced into the energy-demand equations of a top–down dynamic econometric model of the UK economy with fifty industrial sectors, MDM-...

This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the UK economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000–2010 using the macroeconomic model, MDM-E3. The literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect an...

The direction of UK energy policy requires a renewed impetus if the goal of climate change stabilization is to be met. Cost is not the main issue: a transformation to a low-carbon energy system may be no more expensive than meeting future energy demands with fossil fuels. Institutional barriers are preventing the large-scale adoption of the necessa...

This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometr...

This paper introduces a novel approach to the hybrid modelling of technological change climate stabilisation cost literature. We describe how a post-Keynesian macroeconomic model of sectoral demand, E3MG, has been combined with investments in 26 energy technologies from a submodel, ETM. E3MG is a 20-region global energy-environment-economy (E3) eco...

This study considers the validity of an assumption of the representative agent often made in economic models, that the behaviour of an economic group is adequately represented by each member of the group having the identical characteristics of the average. It can be tested whenever sufficient data are available to estimate sets of parameters of a m...

OVERVIEW Most research to date has considered trans-boundary atmospheric pollution and climate change separately, even though they share many common drivers and methods of mitigation. There is a particular dearth of work in the UK on these linkages. Such work is important because (i) synergies and pitfalls in policy terms may be identified, and (ii...

The Cambridge Growth Project (CGP) 1960-1987 developed its own software packages for (1) single-equation then matrix-equation regression analysis and (2) matrix manipulation, then full dynamic nonlinear model solution. The hardware used by the project was the successor to EDSAC, the Titan computer, succeeded by an IBM mainframe, and one of the firs...

The high costs for the US economy of mitigating climate change have been cited by the Bush administration as one of the reasons for rejecting US ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. A range of cost estimates are assessed in the IPCC s third report (2001), but they are hedged with so many qualifications that it is not easy to reach useful conclusions...

Abstract This paper,presents,an empirical analysis of the announcement,effects of the United Kingdom’s Climate Change Levy, which was announced in March 1999 and introduced in April 2001. The existence,and ,nature ,of the ,effects ,are ,estimated ,by dummy ,variables ,within ,time-series regressions on quarterly and annual,data 1973-2003for UK ener...

The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a “cause and effect” approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This...

The Chapter provides the 'Summary for Policymakers' for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Chapter 8 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 is titled Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation. This Chapter viewed the actions in the dual context of climate change and sustainable development to gain mitigation benefits as well as sustainability benefits.

This paper reviews the role of internal European Union (EU) policies and measures in implementing the target for greenhouse gas mitigation in the Kyoto Protocol. It starts with a discussion of the EU Burden Sharing Agreement, which distributes the target between Member States. This leads to a review of the appropriate level of implementation of pol...

This report assesses the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change. Research in climate change mitigation1 has continued since the publication of the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), taking into account political changes such as the agreement on the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC in 1997...

This report assesses the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change. Research in climate change mitigation has continued since the publication of the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), taking into account political changes such as the agreement on the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC in 1997,...